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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    Really fast turnaround but I think the fact they're both at home is huge and makes that easier. It's the same gap as NCAA tournament. Coaches will definitely have a late night tonight though to prepare.
    I agree that the both games being at home for us helps a lot. But tonight was a really emotional win. Tomorrow they learn how to play against the Syracuse zone. Then Monday they have to do it. Not easy. I'm sure one of the assistants has been working on it already, and fortunately, I don't think this year's Syracuse team is that different from last year's.

  2. #42
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Earth
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    I agree that the both games being at home for us helps a lot. But tonight was a really emotional win. Tomorrow they learn how to play against the Syracuse zone. Then Monday they have to do it. Not easy. I'm sure one of the assistants has been working on it already, and fortunately, I don't think this year's Syracuse team is that different from last year's.
    They are significantly better on defense than last year according to kenpom (116 2020 v. 74 now). I don't think the teams score 20 points each in the last 4 minutes again as well.

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by gofurman View Post
    Great win! Syracuse scares me on Monday ..
    Especially scary since we don't have AOC. Maybe Joey Buckets can fill the AOC role.

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by Hartford Dukie View Post
    Lunardi (FWIW) now has us in the next four out
    As the announcers pointed out during the game, this is where he had us prior to the win. (So tune in tomorrow...I mean later today)
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  5. #45
    Short turn around for both teams Monday night but Duke will face the Syracuse zone without much if any practice time. We will need Steward to shoot well in this one.

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Pretty close to where I stand. Here is my take --

    3-3 = no chance of NCAA bid even if we make the ACC tourney finals
    4-2 = a strong run in the ACC tourney might get us in as one of the final few teams in the field (if one of the wins is over Virginia, our odds are greatly enhanced here)
    5-1 but lose the Virginia game = just don't do something really embarrassing in the ACC tourney
    5-1 or 6-0 with a win over Virginia = Duke makes the NCAA tourney regardless of ACC tourney result
    So, since I wrote the above, we are 3-0 with the win over UVA. Here is my only mildly revised prediction:

    • 3-0 in our final 3 games and Duke is in regardless of ACC tournament result
    • 2-1 in these final 3 games and I think we still make the NCAA tournament but an embarrassing ACCT loss would make me a little nervous
    • 1-2 in the last 3 and we will need to win a couple ACC tourney games (especially if we play another ACC bubble team)
    • 0-3 in the final 3 and we probably need to win the ACC tourney to have a shot. Very slim chance of getting in with a run to the ACC finals

    Louisville, Ga Tech, UNC... three of the teams we are battling for ACC position and NCAA bids so lots of opportunity for impressive wins (but not a single easy game and 2 games on the road). I think that if we win all three and make a nice run in the ACC tourney, we could even play our way up to like a 5 or a 6 seed.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  7. #47
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    So, since I wrote the above, we are 3-0 with the win over UVA. Here is my only mildly revised prediction:

    • 3-0 in our final 3 games and Duke is in regardless of ACC tournament result
    • 2-1 in these final 3 games and I think we still make the NCAA tournament but an embarrassing ACCT loss would make me a little nervous
    • 1-2 in the last 3 and we will need to win a couple ACC tourney games (especially if we play another ACC bubble team)
    • 0-3 in the final 3 and we probably need to win the ACC tourney to have a shot. Very slim chance of getting in with a run to the ACC finals

    Louisville, Ga Tech, UNC... three of the teams we are battling for ACC position and NCAA bids so lots of opportunity for impressive wins (but not a single easy game and 2 games on the road). I think that if we win all three and make a nice run in the ACC tourney, we could even play our way up to like a 5 or a 6 seed.
    Yep. Worth noting that if we go 2-1, we likely wind up no worse than 5th in the conference, and possibly 4th (almost definitely 4th if those wins are over UNC and Louisville). In that scenario, it would be VERY hard to leave us out. With wins over UVa and Clemson along with wins over bubble-ish teams Louisville, Syracuse, and UNC, and with the strong back half of the schedule results, I think we would be in strong position. Win an ACCT game and we are in.

    At 3-0, there would be no realistic argument against us. We would be a top-4 ACC team at 12-6, easily top-40 and probably top-30 in NET, with an above-.500 record in both Q1 and Q2 games, and with wins over 2 surefire tourney teams and all of our bubble teams.

    At 1-2, I think it is tough sledding. Especially if those 2 are to Louisville and UNC (putting us firmly behind them in the ACC pecking order). I think we would probably need to make the ACCT final in that scenario at least, and probably would be sweating heavily still at that.

    At 0-3 (and thus .500 on the season), yeah, we would need to win the ACCT.

  8. #48
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    For what (little) it is worth, Torvik has us up to about a 42% chance of securing an at-large bid and a 51% chance of securing any type of bid. If we win this weekend, I'd imagine those odds to jump to above 50% for the at-large.

    He thinks of us as about a 10-seed quality over the course of the season, but he sees us as the #12 team in the country over the past 10 games. He would project us as a 10 seed (not in the last 4 in) with a win this weekend.

    If we win against Louisville and at Ga Tech, he has us projected as a 9 seed.
    Last edited by CDu; 02-23-2021 at 09:49 AM.

  9. #49
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Interestingly, in the "pie in the sky" scenario in which we win out and win the ACC tournament, Torvik would have us as a 5 seed, give or take depending upon whom we beat in the ACCT.

  10. #50
    Despite so many folks seemingly giddy over Duke's down year, I doubt many teams would be excited to see Duke early in the tournament the way we are playing currently.

  11. #51
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    It also pays to be in the top four and get the ACCT bye, especially for a team that's been in the position this one played itself into in late January/early February.

    At that point, you've come within a mouse whisker of already having had to play elimination games for nearly a month. Having had to win a couple ACCTs, so to speak, just to get into the NCAAT, you don't want to have to win four games to win the actual ACCT. And whoever you're gonna play if you're the fifth-seventh seed isn't much gonna help your NCAAT case or seeding or geek ratings by your beating them.

    Although it didn't bother Jayson Tatum!
    Last edited by throatybeard; 02-23-2021 at 10:10 AM.

  12. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Despite so many folks seemingly giddy over Duke's down year, I doubt many teams would be excited to see Duke early in the tournament the way we are playing currently.
    No kidding and will be interesting when we’re the 1st 12 seed favored over a 5 seed.

  13. #53
    USA Today bracket has us in...first one I've seen

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...ld/4553924001/

  14. #54
    If we really do have a super-strong finish and end up with an 8/9 seed, all we gotta do is win twice to inherit that #1 seed path...

  15. #55
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    If we really do have a super-strong finish and end up with an 8/9 seed, all we gotta do is win twice to inherit that #1 seed path...
    tis true! that said, even with how we're playing right now, I would not give us even odds to reach the second weekend. I think it would be a reach in the 4-seed pod, let alone in the 1-seed. Now, if our defense suddenly finds religion, then perhaps. (and not that I put that as particularly unlikely at this point given the excellent stretches we've seen...but need that consistency)
    basketball is back, baby!

  16. #56
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles

    Talking

    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    If we really do have a super-strong finish and end up with an 8/9 seed, all we gotta do is win twice to inherit that #1 seed path...
    Is that all?

  17. #57
    I’m not exactly sure how it works, but I would love to see us play Michigan State in the play-in/1st four round. That is, unless we earn a true first round game. I have a feeling tho, that if we make the tournament, they’re going to “stick it to Duke” and put us in a play-in game, that way people (read haters) can’t complain that they just gave us a bid after this horrible season because we’re Duke. Anyway, so thrilled about the way the team is playing and so proud of how they’ve grown up and gotten really good. Let’s Go Duke!

  18. #58
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    TV provides the money, and TV loves Duke...that won't be acknowledged as a consideration, but it is...

  19. #59
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by kidA View Post
    I’m not exactly sure how it works, but I would love to see us play Michigan State in the play-in/1st four round. That is, unless we earn a true first round game. I have a feeling tho, that if we make the tournament, they’re going to “stick it to Duke” and put us in a play-in game, that way people (read haters) can’t complain that they just gave us a bid after this horrible season because we’re Duke. Anyway, so thrilled about the way the team is playing and so proud of how they’ve grown up and gotten really good. Let’s Go Duke!
    I think people overstate how much the committee really cares about public perception. If that were the case, then there would be far fewer head scratching decisions than we actually see every year. We all know the only thing they're motivated by is making juicy matchups with ridiculously obscure story lines

    For duke and MSU to play in such a game, they'd have to be in the last 4 at-large teams in.
    basketball is back, baby!

  20. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post

    For duke and MSU to play in such a game, they'd have to be in the last 4 at-large teams in.
    If someone offered us a last four in bid last week, would you take it? I sure would, and would right now too. Now if we win out in the regular season, win a few in the ACCT, then maybe my hopes and expectations will rise. But right now I’m just thrilled to be back in the conversation! And I’d love another shot at MSU, not so much Illinois though…

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