I agree that the both games being at home for us helps a lot. But tonight was a really emotional win. Tomorrow they learn how to play against the Syracuse zone. Then Monday they have to do it. Not easy. I'm sure one of the assistants has been working on it already, and fortunately, I don't think this year's Syracuse team is that different from last year's.
Short turn around for both teams Monday night but Duke will face the Syracuse zone without much if any practice time. We will need Steward to shoot well in this one.
So, since I wrote the above, we are 3-0 with the win over UVA. Here is my only mildly revised prediction:
- 3-0 in our final 3 games and Duke is in regardless of ACC tournament result
- 2-1 in these final 3 games and I think we still make the NCAA tournament but an embarrassing ACCT loss would make me a little nervous
- 1-2 in the last 3 and we will need to win a couple ACC tourney games (especially if we play another ACC bubble team)
- 0-3 in the final 3 and we probably need to win the ACC tourney to have a shot. Very slim chance of getting in with a run to the ACC finals
Louisville, Ga Tech, UNC... three of the teams we are battling for ACC position and NCAA bids so lots of opportunity for impressive wins (but not a single easy game and 2 games on the road). I think that if we win all three and make a nice run in the ACC tourney, we could even play our way up to like a 5 or a 6 seed.
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
Yep. Worth noting that if we go 2-1, we likely wind up no worse than 5th in the conference, and possibly 4th (almost definitely 4th if those wins are over UNC and Louisville). In that scenario, it would be VERY hard to leave us out. With wins over UVa and Clemson along with wins over bubble-ish teams Louisville, Syracuse, and UNC, and with the strong back half of the schedule results, I think we would be in strong position. Win an ACCT game and we are in.
At 3-0, there would be no realistic argument against us. We would be a top-4 ACC team at 12-6, easily top-40 and probably top-30 in NET, with an above-.500 record in both Q1 and Q2 games, and with wins over 2 surefire tourney teams and all of our bubble teams.
At 1-2, I think it is tough sledding. Especially if those 2 are to Louisville and UNC (putting us firmly behind them in the ACC pecking order). I think we would probably need to make the ACCT final in that scenario at least, and probably would be sweating heavily still at that.
At 0-3 (and thus .500 on the season), yeah, we would need to win the ACCT.
For what (little) it is worth, Torvik has us up to about a 42% chance of securing an at-large bid and a 51% chance of securing any type of bid. If we win this weekend, I'd imagine those odds to jump to above 50% for the at-large.
He thinks of us as about a 10-seed quality over the course of the season, but he sees us as the #12 team in the country over the past 10 games. He would project us as a 10 seed (not in the last 4 in) with a win this weekend.
If we win against Louisville and at Ga Tech, he has us projected as a 9 seed.
Last edited by CDu; 02-23-2021 at 09:49 AM.
Interestingly, in the "pie in the sky" scenario in which we win out and win the ACC tournament, Torvik would have us as a 5 seed, give or take depending upon whom we beat in the ACCT.
Despite so many folks seemingly giddy over Duke's down year, I doubt many teams would be excited to see Duke early in the tournament the way we are playing currently.
It also pays to be in the top four and get the ACCT bye, especially for a team that's been in the position this one played itself into in late January/early February.
At that point, you've come within a mouse whisker of already having had to play elimination games for nearly a month. Having had to win a couple ACCTs, so to speak, just to get into the NCAAT, you don't want to have to win four games to win the actual ACCT. And whoever you're gonna play if you're the fifth-seventh seed isn't much gonna help your NCAAT case or seeding or geek ratings by your beating them.
Although it didn't bother Jayson Tatum!
Last edited by throatybeard; 02-23-2021 at 10:10 AM.
USA Today bracket has us in...first one I've seen
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...ld/4553924001/
If we really do have a super-strong finish and end up with an 8/9 seed, all we gotta do is win twice to inherit that #1 seed path...
tis true! that said, even with how we're playing right now, I would not give us even odds to reach the second weekend. I think it would be a reach in the 4-seed pod, let alone in the 1-seed. Now, if our defense suddenly finds religion, then perhaps. (and not that I put that as particularly unlikely at this point given the excellent stretches we've seen...but need that consistency)
1200. DDMF.
I’m not exactly sure how it works, but I would love to see us play Michigan State in the play-in/1st four round. That is, unless we earn a true first round game. I have a feeling tho, that if we make the tournament, they’re going to “stick it to Duke” and put us in a play-in game, that way people (read haters) can’t complain that they just gave us a bid after this horrible season because we’re Duke. Anyway, so thrilled about the way the team is playing and so proud of how they’ve grown up and gotten really good. Let’s Go Duke!
TV provides the money, and TV loves Duke...that won't be acknowledged as a consideration, but it is...
I think people overstate how much the committee really cares about public perception. If that were the case, then there would be far fewer head scratching decisions than we actually see every year. We all know the only thing they're motivated by is making juicy matchups with ridiculously obscure story lines
For duke and MSU to play in such a game, they'd have to be in the last 4 at-large teams in.
1200. DDMF.
If someone offered us a last four in bid last week, would you take it? I sure would, and would right now too. Now if we win out in the regular season, win a few in the ACCT, then maybe my hopes and expectations will rise. But right now I’m just thrilled to be back in the conversation! And I’d love another shot at MSU, not so much Illinois though…