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  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    UVa. 11-7 record. NIT.
    OK. I just re-checked ESPN's ACC standings for 2013, and for some reason Virginia and their 11-7 record were listed in 2nd-to-last place, rather than tied for 4th as they should have been. So I stand corrected.

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    MSU was a top 10 team when we played them.
    And, right now they aren't in the top ten of the B1G standings. It's one more bad loss.

  3. #23
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Durham, NC
    I personally think the ACC tournament is not to be discounted. That could end up being make-or-break for us in most realistic scenarios. Going 4-1 against our remaining schedule is a tough ask, but it still doesn't make us a shoe-in if we lay an egg in the first round. Personally, I think even 5-0 is not a sure thing if we get blown out in the first round. And obviously, if we go 3-2, we'll have to go very deep in the tourney - and possibly win it - to get in at all.

    The ACC tournament is going to mean more this year than in most years, I think, at least to Duke.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Earth
    We need to win the next 2 before having this discussion: the quality win against UVA and the scheduled loss against Syracuse on Monday. (Syracuse has only beaten us once in ACC play outside the Big Monday format--the first game @Syracuse.)

    I like to track predictive error in sports models like Sagarin, Pomeroy, etc. NCSU and WFU could still be outliers; anybody can get hot for a week.

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    I don't think the "11-7" number would be what gets us in. If we are 11-7 with a win over UVa, that would almost certainly push our NET ranking into the 30s. That would be what gets us in, barring a collapse in the ACC. If we are 11-7 with a loss to UVa, we'll probably still be in the 30s or low-40s. In that scenario, we'd probably need to add a couple of wins in the ACC tourney to get our NET comfortably into the 30s.

    If we are 12-6, we would have a NET in the 20s or low 30s and I'd pretty much guarantee we are in.

    It's not just the record. It's that the metrics, as well as our trend, would favor us. Yes, we stunk it up in the pre-conference and early conference season in terms of our W/L. But that won't keep us out if we finish the regular season on a 6-1 run, with wins over several teams that are at worst bubble teams.

    Obviously, that's a big if. We haven't put together anything approaching that level of consistency yet. But IF we do go 4-1 the rest of the way, I feel pretty confident we'll be in the tournament. Especially so if one of those 4 is against UVa.

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    So, a bunch of people here think Duke somehow has complete control over whether we make the NCAAT ("with X record, we're in"), as if this is happening in a vacuum, as if there are no other teams in our position and as if we don't need any help. Even though no major bracket projection even has us on the bubble, we've beaten nobody all year unless Clemson is somebody, and there are a ton of other teams with records in our vicinity.

    In reality, barring an ACCT autobid, we need help, Virginia or no Virginia.

    Which it's why it's good that Washington State just beat Stanford in 3OT behind an inefficient but monstrous scoring total from Noah Williams, about half their points in a 55 minute game. So Stanford, ESPN's last team in, just lost. Keep it up, Junior University.

    Another game where we have a rooting interest on these games today prior to ours is the basketball Egg Bowl. Mississippi State leads by six at halftime, which is good, because Ole Miss (L4 out) is another bubble team who needs to do some losing. Ole Miss ran State in Starkville earlier this year, and I don't know yet why it's going better in Oxford, because I stayed with WSU-Stanford so long.

    Doesn't hurt that Dayton stomped SLU last night, either.

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    So, a bunch of people here think Duke somehow has complete control over whether we make the NCAAT ("with X record, we're in"), as if this is happening in a vacuum, as if there are no other teams in our position and as if we don't need any help. Even though no major bracket projection even has us on the bubble, we've beaten nobody all year unless Clemson is somebody, and there are a ton of other teams with records in our vicinity.

    In reality, barring an ACCT autobid, we need help, Virginia or no Virginia.

    Which it's why it's good that Washington State just beat Stanford in 3OT behind an inefficient but monstrous scoring total from Noah Williams, about half their points in a 55 minute game. So Stanford, ESPN's last team in, just lost. Keep it up, Junior University.

    Another game where we have a rooting interest on these games today prior to ours is the basketball Egg Bowl. Mississippi State leads by six at halftime, which is good, because Ole Miss (L4 out) is another bubble team who needs to do some losing. Ole Miss ran State in Starkville earlier this year, and I don't know yet why it's going better in Oxford, because I stayed with WSU-Stanford so long.

    Doesn't hurt that Dayton stomped SLU last night, either.
    I mean, you are wasting your energy. With the win tonight, if we go 3-1 down the stretch, we will be in. Our NET will be plenty good enough, our record will be fine, we will have 3-4 wins over tourney teams, and our “last 10” will look great.

    If we win the next 4, there will be zero doubt. No help needed. Probably no help needed at a 3-1 finish, but definitely no help needed if we win out.

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I mean, you are wasting your energy. With the win tonight, if we go 3-1 down the stretch, we will be in. Our NET will be plenty good enough, our record will be fine, we will have 3-4 wins over tourney teams, and our “last 10” will look great.

    If we win the next 4, there will be zero doubt. No help needed. Probably no help needed at a 3-1 finish, but definitely no help needed if we win out.
    For sure that was the win we had to have. Just can’t let up now and yes; 3-1 to finish reg season and a win in ACC tourney should do it.

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I mean, you are wasting your energy. With the win tonight, if we go 3-1 down the stretch, we will be in. Our NET will be plenty good enough, our record will be fine, we will have 3-4 wins over tourney teams, and our “last 10” will look great.

    If we win the next 4, there will be zero doubt. No help needed. Probably no help needed at a 3-1 finish, but definitely no help needed if we win out.
    Guarantee we get in if we finish 3-1. I mean take it to the bank guarantee. No way we are denied, regardless of even an early exit in the ACC Tournament.

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    Guarantee we get in if we finish 3-1. I mean take it to the bank guarantee. No way we are denied, regardless of even an early exit in the ACC Tournament.
    Yep, I agree. It would be wildly shocking for a team to be 11-7, with probably 4 wins over tourney teams, with a NET rating in the 30s, and with a really solid record down the stretch to be left out.

    Now, we still have to win those 3 more, which means a road win over a tourney team and two home wins over bubble teams. But if we do it, we will be in.

  11. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I mean, you are wasting your energy. With the win tonight, if we go 3-1 down the stretch, we will be in. Our NET will be plenty good enough, our record will be fine, we will have 3-4 wins over tourney teams, and our “last 10” will look great.

    If we win the next 4, there will be zero doubt. No help needed. Probably no help needed at a 3-1 finish, but definitely no help needed if we win out.
    I agree with you but it seems like the absolute NET ranking doesn't really matter. They seem to care about WIN-LOSS records against various thresholds of NET rankings. So, a team with a lot of good wins obviously would be highly ranked in NET and there's high correlation, but it's not a perfect corollary. But beating Uva, Louisville, UNC, Syracuse will bolster the WIN-LOSS resume.

  12. #32
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    Syracuse
    I kind of want Jalen to come back, score 40 on Boeheim, and then leave again.

  13. #33
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    I am thrilled about that win - what a great team display. And we likely would have been done without it. That said, I hadn't focused on the really quick turn to play Syracuse. Playing the zone is tough, especially for a young team, but we will have minimal time to prepare. And they are hungry as well. The good news is that we are playing much better and hitting more shots, which is key vs. Syracuse.

    Regardless, I'm really excited that we are still in it and that we seem to be gelling as a team.

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    I am thrilled about that win - what a great team display. And we likely would have been done without it. That said, I hadn't focused on the really quick turn to play Syracuse. Playing the zone is tough, especially for a young team, but we will have minimal time to prepare. And they are hungry as well. The good news is that we are playing much better and hitting more shots, which is key vs. Syracuse.

    Regardless, I'm really excited that we are still in it and that we seem to be gelling as a team.
    Really fast turnaround but I think the fact they're both at home is huge and makes that easier. It's the same gap as NCAA tournament. Coaches will definitely have a late night tonight though to prepare.

  15. #35
    Beat Kerolina in the Dome; go to the Dance.

  16. #36
    What a classic ACC game! I just wish the students could have been there for this glorious win.

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    I am thrilled about that win - what a great team display. And we likely would have been done without it. That said, I hadn't focused on the really quick turn to play Syracuse. Playing the zone is tough, especially for a young team, but we will have minimal time to prepare. And they are hungry as well. The good news is that we are playing much better and hitting more shots, which is key vs. Syracuse.

    Regardless, I'm really excited that we are still in it and that we seem to be gelling as a team.
    And if this improvement keeps up, winning the ACCT becomes more possible. I can'T wait. GO DUKE!!!

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    Really fast turnaround but I think the fact they're both at home is huge and makes that easier. It's the same gap as NCAA tournament. Coaches will definitely have a late night tonight though to prepare.
    Great win! Syracuse scares me on Monday ..

  19. #39
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Earth
    Quote Originally Posted by gofurman View Post
    Great win! Syracuse scares me on Monday ..
    We have not seen them this year, and we haven't beaten them under Big Monday conditions. Syracuse had a very emotional comeback against ND today at noon. We really need the win on Monday.

  20. #40
    Lunardi (FWIW) now has us in the next four out

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