Duke's NCAA Tourney Chances

[CDu]

Said it three games ago. It's still 100% true today. We need 3 wins to make the tournament. Unfortunately, we went 0-3 in our next three games. But if we win our next three, we are in.

Those three? Boston College, Louisville and Florida State. Win those and we make the tournament.

(incidentally, I put the odds of us winning those three at around zero, but, hey, one can dream)

No, because we play BC first, I think we would have to win 4 to get in the discussion. And even then it would be dicey. But a 14-12 Duke team is almost certainly not getting in this year.

[proelitedota]

Make it to the final and we're locked for the tourney.

Win 3 games and it takes other bubble teams falling out.

[JasonEvans]

No, because we play BC first, I think we would have to win 4 to get in the discussion. And even then it would be dicey. But a 14-12 Duke team is almost certainly not getting in this year.

I agree. "Win 3" meant 3 wins against teams of some quality. BC is not a top 100 team and has won a grand total of 1 game during the Biden presidency.

[UrinalCake]

There’s still a possibility that VT is unable to play or that some other team seeded ahead of us has to drop out. That would at least get us out of the Tuesday round. But given how bad we looked tonight, it’s hard to feel like we have any chance of a run. Every game would be 50/50 or worse.

[Natty_B]

Said it three games ago. It's still 100% true today. We need 3 wins to make the tournament. Unfortunately, we went 0-3 in our next three games. But if we win our next three, we are in.

Those three? Boston College, Louisville and Florida State. Win those and we make the tournament.

(incidentally, I put the odds of us winning those three at around zero, but, hey, one can dream)

I don’t think a 14-12 team makes the NCAA tournament. NIT yes.

[uh_no]

the committee is generally open that they don't put as much weight on tournament performance as the general public. we have almost 0 chance of an at large big at this point. none.

[gumbomoop]

There’s still a possibility that VT is unable to play...

This raises an interesting question. The six teams that play Tuesday need to know by tomorrow who their opponent is to be. Further, in a 14-team tourney, only 4 teams would play Tuesday, not including Duke. I don’t raise the issue in order to claim that somehow Duke would have a significantly better chance to win the ACCT, but just practically-speaking, surely the ACC has to make a decision re VT and announce it in some fashion.

And if VT is out, the bracket looks way different. If all teams seeded lower than 3-seed VT move up, wouldn’t that mean the 8/9 matchup becomes NCSt-Duke?

Help.

[dukelifer]

the committee is generally open that they don't put as much weight on tournament performance as the general public. we have almost 0 chance of an at large big at this point. none.

Yes but this is a strange year. In a normal year- you are right. But 4 wins against quality opponents could do it - but Duke is on life support right now.

[dukelifer]

I don’t think a 14-12 team makes the NCAA tournament. NIT yes.

Not sure Duke accepts an NIT bid. I think it is 50-50.

[Udaman]

No, because we play BC first, I think we would have to win 4 to get in the discussion. And even then it would be dicey. But a 14-12 Duke team is almost certainly not getting in this year.

doesn't matter. If we beat Louisville and Florida State back to back, we are in.

But...it would be shocking to me if we win those three games. As much as i would like it to happen, I don't see it.

[UrinalCake]

This raises an interesting question. The six teams that play Tuesday need to know by tomorrow who their opponent is to be. Further, in a 14-team tourney, only 4 teams would play Tuesday, not including Duke. I don’t raise the issue in order to claim that somehow Duke would have a significantly better chance to win the ACCT, but just practically-speaking, surely the ACC has to make a decision re VT and announce it in some fashion.

And if VT is out, the bracket looks way different. If all teams seeded lower than 3-seed VT move up, wouldn’t that mean the 8/9 matchup becomes NCSt-Duke?

Help.

Why do we need to know by tomorrow? Is there some rule that the bracket must be locked in by then? It seems like the ACC could shuffle teams around whenever they wanted given the uncertainty of Covid. But if a team is unable to play, I would assume that yes the teams below them all move up a spot. Kind of like when Louisville accepted a postseason suspension a few years ago.

To be honest though, I kind of don’t want anything to do with NC State right now.

[Natty_B]

doesn't matter. If we beat Louisville and Florida State back to back, we are in.

But...it would be shocking to me if we win those three games. As much as i would like it to happen, I don't see it.

Gonna have to disagree again here. If Duke wins those games and then loses I don’t think they’re in. I do agree with you that it’s moot since it won’t be happening.

[gumbomoop]

Why do we need to know by tomorrow? Is there some rule that the bracket must be locked in by then? It seems like the ACC could shuffle teams around whenever they wanted given the uncertainty of Covid.

No, I don’t know of any rule. But if teams P and Q are on Sunday and Monday preparing to play each other on Tuesday, and then at 7:30 Monday eve are told they will each have a different opponent the next day, that’s chaos. Maybe all coaches understand that exactly this could happen, but I’d have thought there would be a general agreement among all teams and the ACC that there’s, say, a Sunday deadline for a decision about VT.

Maybe not. And I’ve no idea what happens if a team has Covid issues in middle of the tournament. Forfeit, I guess.

[uh_no]

Gonna have to disagree again here. If Duke wins those games and then loses I don’t think they’re in. I do agree with you that it’s moot since it won’t be happening.

I 100% agree.

this league is not good enough that a 500 team who ended their regular season on a skid is getting major consideration. I agree OT losses stink and an OT win vs a loss doesn't say much about the overall quality of a team, but selection committee does, and IMO is absolutely justified in rewarding wins on the court....and there is little argument that on the whole, duke hasn't gotten it done this year. A win over a hapless BC team, a non-tournament UL, and a pretty-good FSU team is not going to change that. Maybe beating VT or whomever in the semis gets us on the first 4-out conversation...but IMO that's still single digit % territory....It's AQ or bust for this team, and don't get me wrong, I'm pulling for them the whole way, but KP has us at 3.6%...


So I'm saying there's a chance

Though note he only has us at 15% chance of even making the semis...

[throatybeard]

I came tonight kinda expecting to see this thread locked like an elapsed game thread.

[Mrduke21]

Question: which ACC tournament tickets cover the Duke game? I assume the Tuesday 2:00pm slot? Even though they play at 4?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

MSU seems determined to take the mantle of "blueblood you thought was dead but fights back for a shot at the tournament."

[CDu]

MSU seems determined to take the mantle of "blueblood you thought was dead but fights back for a shot at the tournament."

Yeah they are pretty comfortably in the field now with a 15-11 record and wins over 3 top-10 teams.

[sagegrouse]

the committee is generally open that they don't put as much weight on tournament performance as the general public. we have almost 0 chance of an at large big at this point. none.

One of the unfortunate factors is that, understandably, the TSC starts its futile* job ahead of time. The ACC tournament doesn't wrap up until Saturday night. "Surprising teams" who make it too the finals have been mentally discarded ahead of time. Therefore, the TSC has to decide to disrupt its bracket at the last minute.

I am less pessimistic than you, uh_no, because I think the Committee will have its eye on Duke and will be mentally prepared for Duke making a run. Duke to the finals may do it.

Kindly
Sage
*My position is well known on the "fool's errand" of the tournament Selection Committee. It selects and seeds teams across the entire U.S., when, in fact, there are only a handful of interconference games after January 1, where one might reasonably align the conferences.

[gumbomoop]

Because we have but the slimmest of chances to make the NCAAT, I’ve already mostly moved on to “next season” thoughts — of Griffin and Banchero, of the possibility that we’ll get Keels, of my (non-pollyannish) expectations of solid soph years from Steward and Williams, hopes for leadership, confidence, and consistency from Moore.

Yet I do wish I knew, am truly fan-curious about, how Krzyzewski and staff are preparing for the ACCT. In some ways it might reflect K’s approach to the 2017 ACCT, when Duke was the 5-seed, looking at the daunting task of needing to win on 4 straight days. This year the task is yet more daunting.

Of course I have no idea how the staff are preparing the players. I have a few questions, some speculation.

Would the staff spend all of Sunday’s and Monday’s prep on BC — one game at a time, can’t look forward to UL or we’ll simply falter against BC? Having played UL twice, the staff already knows how to prepare for UL, so if we get past BC, spend Tues eve and Wed midday (?) just going over UL-Duke games, what to do better this time, how to try to contain Jones and Johnson, etc.

In one limited sense, Duke has the “advantage” of knowing who its first 3 opponents will be, if successful on Tues and then Wed. So the staff must be preparing general game-plans for UL and FSU.

Whatever they tell the players before (we hope) facing UL and FSU, respectively, the staff must know that Duke might be able to stay with UL and FSU offensively, but that defensively Duke couldn’t deal in either game this season with UL’s Jones (among others) and would next face a major defensive challenge playing for the 3d straight day against a rested and angry FSU, #10 AdjO (Kpom).

So, any chance K would throw the dice with the zone for the “entire” tournament, 1 game, or 2, or at least 3? Sunday and Monday, is K literally thinking only of BC, or is he “planning for the tournament,” at least the known tournament he can see in front of his team? Would he use the BC game, in effect, to practice playing the zone he might think is Duke’s best option on Wed and Thurs, perhaps all week long, however long the week? Does K think Duke could beat either UL or FSU with our m2m?

Surely he couldn’t throw the dice in another way, using a lot of press, rotating frequently? No, the zone seems a better guess. Just a guess.

How about the larger question of squad rotation? Doesn’t K have to use all of players 7-10 (Brakefield, Baker, Coleman, and Tape) against BC? And specifically on those 4, doesn’t K have to use each of them for more than just 2-3 minutes each? Is it: Do whatever you need to do to beat BC, even if that means playing only 7 guys, 6 of them for 32 minutes each? Or is it: Calibrate playing time to beat BC and keep your top 6 players around 25 minutes each? Which would mean — I know all of you can count — 16-18 minutes each for Brakefield and Baker, and 7-10 each for Coleman and Tape.

K isn’t just giving up. So what’s his approach? What’s his plan? What should be the plan?


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