Duke's NCAA Tourney Chances

[scottdude8]

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By no means do I think I "know it all" when it comes to this stuff... if anything, I try to actively advertise that I don't know it all and am a very "amateur" bracketologist. That said, I do try to back up all of my statements with evidence, be it recent results from teams on the bubble or what the current status of bracket projections are. By no means do I think I'm absolutely right, but I do think it's appropriate to push back on those on the board (a non-trivial minority) who have reacted to every Duke setback this season by saying "It's over!" without the proper context.

If my contributions to the board are that toxic, I'll seriously reconsider what I'm doing, because all I've ever tried to do was work to add to the breadth of knowledge that exists here, and perhaps provide a bit of context and a cool head when it comes to our collective tendency to overreact after a loss. I hope that isn't the case. But regardless, I sincerely apologize if anything I posted made you feel that was my attitude, and I'll work harder to make it clear that it's not in the future.

[throatybeard]

Wow... I'm sincerely sorry that anything I posted came across that way.

There's certainly no coordination between me and the two you mentioned... if anything, I'm pretty shocked you think we're on the same page since we often vehemently disagree!

By no means do I think I "know it all" when it comes to this stuff... if anything, I try to actively advertise that I don't know it all and am a very "amateur" bracketologist. That said, I do try to back up all of my statements with evidence, be it recent results from teams on the bubble or what the current status of bracket projections are. By no means do I think I'm absolutely right, but I do think it's appropriate to push back on those on the board (a non-trivial minority) who have reacted to every Duke setback this season by saying "It's over!" without the proper context.

If my contributions to the board are that toxic, I'll seriously reconsider what I'm doing, because all I've ever tried to do was work to add to the breadth of knowledge that exists here, and perhaps provide a bit of context and a cool head when it comes to our collective tendency to overreact after a loss. I hope that isn't the case. But regardless, I sincerely apologize if anything I posted made you feel that was my attitude, and I'll work harder to make it clear that it's not in the future.

Thank you. I really don't want conflict over this; I just want for this place to be enjoyable and convivial. I'm probably pushing back too hard, myself--I tend to be reactive about it when I perceive people as talking down to the whole group.

(Indeed, I have a like-hate relationship with that darn handy pocket reference. On the one hand, we as a group are amazingly repetitive, and the degree to which large territories of that document drafted in 2005 *still* apply is a little scary. On the other, it's too snarky, and I'm dismayed that my most valued contribution here is seven pages of GenXy wisecracking at the group's expense).

It's an enormously #firstworldproblem to have, but I think a lot of people here are in their feels in a way they haven't been since 1995 or 1983. (Not to mention the lost women's season!). My hope is that we can be a little more like teammates, and less like #wellakshually sparring partners.

[Wander]

Wow... I'm sincerely sorry that anything I posted came across that way.

There's certainly no coordination between me and the two you mentioned... if anything, I'm pretty shocked you think we're on the same page since we often vehemently disagree!

By no means do I think I "know it all" when it comes to this stuff... if anything, I try to actively advertise that I don't know it all and am a very "amateur" bracketologist. That said, I do try to back up all of my statements with evidence, be it recent results from teams on the bubble or what the current status of bracket projections are. By no means do I think I'm absolutely right, but I do think it's appropriate to push back on those on the board (a non-trivial minority) who have reacted to every Duke setback this season by saying "It's over!" without the proper context.

If my contributions to the board are that toxic, I'll seriously reconsider what I'm doing, because all I've ever tried to do was work to add to the breadth of knowledge that exists here, and perhaps provide a bit of context and a cool head when it comes to our collective tendency to overreact after a loss. I hope that isn't the case. But regardless, I sincerely apologize if anything I posted made you feel that was my attitude, and I'll work harder to make it clear that it's not in the future.

Your posts have been great, I have found them informative while also friendly and positive. I know your posts (and others here) made me realize I was wrong when I was too negative about Duke's tournament chances a couple weeks ago (thinking we had to win out to get an at-large, which wasn't true).

I also would have guessed they were completely non-controversial, I don't know why you got weirdly aggressive pushback. Keep at it!

[tommy]

Your posts have been great, I have found them informative while also friendly and positive. I know your posts (and others here) made me realize I was wrong when I was too negative about Duke's tournament chances a couple weeks ago (thinking we had to win out to get an at-large, which wasn't true).

I also would have guessed they were completely non-controversial, I don't know why you got weirdly aggressive pushback. Keep at it!

Fully agree with you Wander. Scott is, in my mind, reasonable, evidence-based, and not condescending at all. I am probably more pessimistic than the evidence suggests I should be about our chances, but I wouldn't be as fully aware of that evidence were it not for Scott.

[CDu]

I think the most frustrating thing is that we are literally 2 made baskets (or free throws) the past 5 days from being comfortably in the field and on a 6-game win streak (including 3 Q1 wins). Such is life though when you blow games at home against Notre Dame and on the road against Miami and Pitt.

We have been playing at the quality of a top-20 team over the past 10 games. Unfortunately, the results have been 5-5, with virtually all of the losses being of the heartbreaking variety. If we were 4-4 in games decided by <=5 or OT (instead of the 2-6 that we are), we'd be in the field. Alas...

Still holding out hope for a win over UNC and then a nice run in the ACC tournament. And hopeful that if we don't make the NCAAs that we accept an NIT bid.

[scottdude8]

I think the most frustrating thing is that we are literally 2 made baskets (or free throws) the past 5 days from being comfortably in the field and on a 6-game win streak (including 3 Q1 wins). Such is life though when you blow games at home against Notre Dame and on the road against Miami and Pitt.

We have been playing at the quality of a top-20 team over the past 10 games. Unfortunately, the results have been 5-5, with virtually all of the losses being of the heartbreaking variety. If we were 4-4 in games decided by <=5 or OT (instead of the 2-6 that we are), we'd be in the field. Alas...

Still holding out hope for a win over UNC and then a nice run in the ACC tournament. And hopeful that if we don't make the NCAAs that we accept an NIT bid.

Obviously I don't want to get so drastic as to start focusing on the NIT, haha, but I'm with you there. I think us accepting an NIT bid would be a good indicator that K thinks/knows the core of this team is coming back next year and could use the opportunity to further grow. And that could lead to great things.

[CDu]

Obviously I don't want to get so drastic as to start focusing on the NIT, haha, but I'm with you there. I think us accepting an NIT bid would be a good indicator that K thinks/knows the core of this team is coming back next year and could use the opportunity to further grow. And that could lead to great things.

Yeah, until it's 0% (and we agree it's not their yet), I'm going to hold onto hope that the team can make the NCAAs. But going to the NIT would be a nice opportunity for the young guys who (hopefully) return to build some more experience and hopefully gain some confidence in close, pressure games.

[scottdude8]

Your posts have been great, I have found them informative while also friendly and positive. I know your posts (and others here) made me realize I was wrong when I was too negative about Duke's tournament chances a couple weeks ago (thinking we had to win out to get an at-large, which wasn't true).

I also would have guessed they were completely non-controversial, I don't know why you got weirdly aggressive pushback. Keep at it!

Fully agree with you Wander. Scott is, in my mind, reasonable, evidence-based, and not condescending at all. I am probably more pessimistic than the evidence suggests I should be about our chances, but I wouldn't be as fully aware of that evidence were it not for Scott.

Very much appreciated, guys... it's always nice to know my efforts aren't completely wasted, haha.

[tommy]

Hey Scott - maybe if it's not too much trouble you could even give us a daily primer of that day or night's upcoming games involving bubble teams, where they stand relative to us, etc as well as any other games that could help or hurt us. And/or the results after the games that have mattered. Of course we have to beat UNC and that is job 1 but with so many other teams in the mix or or near the bubble it would be nice to be able to know which games matter to us and why. As if you have nothing better to do . . . LOL

[scottdude8]

Hey Scott - maybe if it's not too much trouble you could even give us a daily primer of that day or night's upcoming games involving bubble teams, where they stand relative to us, etc as well as any other games that could help or hurt us. And/or the results after the games that have mattered. Of course we have to beat UNC and that is job 1 but with so many other teams in the mix or or near the bubble it would be nice to be able to know which games matter to us and why. As if you have nothing better to do . . . LOL

Hahaha I actually love doing that! Believe it or not, the type of sports writing I do on the front page and do in snippets in forum posts represents an escape for me. I'm at a very weird/stressful stage of my academic career, so being able to hyper-focus on writing, finding weird statistics, etc. helps get me out of my head for enough of a time that I can actually look at the challenges I'm facing IRL with a fresh set of eyes!

I'll see if I can get together a bubble primer for you for tonight

[Nugget]

I think the most frustrating thing is that we are literally 2 made baskets (or free throws) the past 5 days from being comfortably in the field and on a 6-game win streak (including 3 Q1 wins). Such is life though when you blow games at home against Notre Dame and on the road against Miami and Pitt.

We have been playing at the quality of a top-20 team over the past 10 games. Unfortunately, the results have been 5-5, with virtually all of the losses being of the heartbreaking variety. If we were 4-4 in games decided by <=5 or OT (instead of the 2-6 that we are), we'd be in the field. Alas...

Still holding out hope for a win over UNC and then a nice run in the ACC tournament. And hopeful that if we don't make the NCAAs that we accept an NIT bid.

Second all of the above. This team really crippled its NCAA chances with, in particular, throwing away the Notre Dame and Miami games. But for those, we might still have been in position to squeak in even with the heart-breaking losses the last two games.

[Natty_B]

Doubt K takes the NIT invite to lovely Frisco (when it seemed like it would be in MSG then maybe). The 2021 NIT has a distinct for non-power conference schools vibe to it. Plus it would be a total 180 from the caution Duke has shown to COVID.

Do we all agree Duke needs 4 wins in a row for an at-large bid? That would mean winning: at UNC, winning the 8/9 game, beating the number 1 seed and beating the 4/5 seed in the span of less than one week and the last two games Duke would be at a massive rest disadvantage. It would be a remarkable run that this team hasn't shown it's capable of doing but hey dare to dream!

[scottdude8]

Doubt K takes the NIT invite to lovely Frisco (when it seemed like it would be in MSG then maybe). The 2021 NIT has a distinct for non-power conference schools vibe to it. Plus it would be a total 180 from the caution Duke has shown to COVID.

Do we all agree Duke needs 4 wins in a row for an at-large bid? That would mean winning: at UNC, winning the 8/9 game, beating the number 1 seed and beating the 4/5 seed in the span of less than one week and the last two games Duke would be at a massive rest disadvantage. It would be a remarkable run that this team hasn't shown it's capable of doing but hey dare to dream!

I think 4 wins and we're safely in. 2 wins we have a very outside chance if other bubble teams collapse and we get some help from the committee (potentially in the form of them judging mid-majors more harshly based on the lack of a non-con schedule). 3 wins and I'd put our chances anywhere in the 30-60% chance range, depending highly on what other bubble teams do. Very rough guesstimates, obviously!

[scottdude8]

Hey Scott - maybe if it's not too much trouble you could even give us a daily primer of that day or night's upcoming games involving bubble teams, where they stand relative to us, etc as well as any other games that could help or hurt us. And/or the results after the games that have mattered. Of course we have to beat UNC and that is job 1 but with so many other teams in the mix or or near the bubble it would be nice to be able to know which games matter to us and why. As if you have nothing better to do . . . LOL

As requested, a list of games of interest to watch tonight:
-MSU v. Michigan. This one is obvious... a Michigan sweep of MSU would significantly hurt their tourney chances, and thus help ours. With MSU likely to be an 8/9 seed in the B1G tournament and Michigan the likely 1 seed, we actually could see three Michigan-Michigan State matchups over the next week. If Michigan were to sweep those matchups MSU would need significant help to make the tourney (and I would be just GIDDY).
-Texas v. Oklahoma. Texas is ranked slightly higher than Oklahoma in the NET, but both are just in the Top 30. It would be awesome if Clemson could sneak into the Top 30 and give us another Q1 win, although that's less likely after they lost to Cuse yesterday. A Texas win probably helps that cause more than an Oklahoma win.
-Baylor v. Oklahoma State. Similar situation to the above: if Clemson is to have any shot at sneaking into the Top 30 they need help. Baylor winning and knocking down other teams in that range, like OK State, can't hurt (although I personally may want to see a Baylor loss to help Michigan claim the No. 2 overall seed, haha).
-Wyoming v. Utah State. Utah State is one of those "first 8 out" type of teams, like us. If they drop another one that would send them further down the list and eliminate one more competitor.

And believe it or not there was already a game today that was a good result: Richmond lost to Duquene in the 2nd round of the A10 tourney. That not only essentially eliminates Richmond from at-large consideration, but means there's one less opportunity for a quality win in the A10 tournament for teams like St. Louis, St. Bonnaventure, and VCU. Ensuring at most two teams from the A10 are viable tourney candidates wouldn't hurt at all.

[CDu]

I think 4 wins and we're safely in. 2 wins we have a very outside chance if other bubble teams collapse and we get some help from the committee (potentially in the form of them judging mid-majors more harshly based on the lack of a non-con schedule). 3 wins and I'd put our chances anywhere in the 30-60% chance range, depending highly on what other bubble teams do. Very rough guesstimates, obviously!

I disagree only a little. I think that 2 wins will leave us out of the field. Especially if those 2 wins are over BC and Syracuse, for example, and we lose to UNC and FSU to finish 13-12. If we beat UNC this weekend and then Syracuse or UNC again in the ACC tourney, I don't think a 13-11 team that was legitimately the 8th or 9th best team in the conference in a weaker-than-usual ACC will have a strong case. Ultimately, I suspect the W/L record - and especially the W/L record against good teams - will be too weak. I'd imagine that the committee would go in favor of a gaudy record mid-major over the just a shade over .500 team from the ACC. I won't say 0%, but I would say pretty darn close to 0%. I get the feeling that the committee won't penalize a midmajor for the pandemic in favor of a mediocre major conference team this year. And there are enough of teams with good records out there that the committee can fill the bracket with 15+ win teams rather than a 13-11 or 13-12 team from a good but not great conference. I would even say that Syracuse is probably ahead of us in the pecking order based on their NET and overall record (even though they have few good wins), despite what Lunardi says. Ditto Ole Miss most likely.

So I think that we need at least 3 wins, and one of them needs to be this weekend against UNC. That scenario would push us to 14-11, and then the decision gets a little more interesting. Then I agree with your 1/3 to 1/2 chance. With 4 wins (including this weekend), I think the committee would have to heavily discount the ACCT to keep us out. I'd lean heavily in favor of us getting in with a 15-11 record, because then we have a sufficient W/L record to justify it. Especially because then we have a better "last 10" argument to go along with a much improved NET, a few more Q1 wins, and a solid overall record.

I think if we lose this weekend, our chances get pretty bleak. If we win this weekend, the door is open with a strong ACC tourney run. But anything short of the ACC semis is probably going to leave us out of the field. Even though I definitely think we're one of the top-40 at-large teams in terms of quality, we just haven't gotten the wins to justify it.

[scottdude8]

I disagree only a little. I think that 2 wins will leave us out of the field. Especially if those 2 wins are over BC and Syracuse, for example, and we lose to UNC and FSU to finish 13-12. If we beat UNC this weekend and then Syracuse or UNC again in the ACC tourney, I don't think a 13-11 team that was legitimately the 8th or 9th best team in the conference in a weaker-than-usual ACC will have a strong case. Ultimately, I suspect the W/L record - and especially the W/L record against good teams - will be too weak. I'd imagine that the committee would go in favor of a gaudy record mid-major over the just a shade over .500 team from the ACC. I won't say 0%, but I would say pretty darn close to 0%. I get the feeling that the committee won't penalize a midmajor for the pandemic in favor of a mediocre major conference team this year. And there are enough of teams with good records out there that the committee can fill the bracket with 15+ win teams rather than a 13-11 or 13-12 team from a good but not great conference. I would even say that Syracuse is probably ahead of us in the pecking order based on their NET and overall record (even though they have few good wins), despite what Lunardi says. Ditto Ole Miss most likely.

So I think that we need at least 3 wins, and one of them needs to be this weekend against UNC. That scenario would push us to 14-11, and then the decision gets a little more interesting. Then I agree with your 1/3 to 1/2 chance. With 4 wins (including this weekend), I think the committee would have to heavily discount the ACCT to keep us out. I'd lean heavily in favor of us getting in with a 15-11 record, because then we have a sufficient W/L record to justify it. Especially because then we have a better "last 10" argument to go along with a much improved NET, a few more Q1 wins, and a solid overall record.

I think if we lose this weekend, our chances get pretty bleak. If we win this weekend, the door is open with a strong ACC tourney run. But anything short of the ACC semis is probably going to leave us out of the field. Even though I definitely think we're one of the top-40 at-large teams in terms of quality, we just haven't gotten the wins to justify it.

Sorry, I should’ve clarified: in each of those scenarios I was assuming we win Saturday. So I think we do mostly agree.

[House P]

I think 4 wins and we're safely in. 2 wins we have a very outside chance if other bubble teams collapse and we get some help from the committee (potentially in the form of them judging mid-majors more harshly based on the lack of a non-con schedule). 3 wins and I'd put our chances anywhere in the 30-60% chance range, depending highly on what other bubble teams do. Very rough guesstimates, obviously!

That is pretty spot on with what Torvik estimates using his (unvalidated) "TRanketology" method. Here are the chances Torvik gives Duke of making the tourney based on their record going forward.

1-1 = 5%
2-1 = 20%
3-1 = 50%
4-1 = 70%

70% seems low for a 4-1 finish, but this should probably be put into context. Torvik's formula currently gives Virginia Tech a 70% chance of making the tourney and most folks would consider them a near lock at this point.

Note: These are based on Duke beating UNC on Saturday. I didn't feel like checking to see how remote the chances would be if Duke loses to UNC.

[uh_no]

That is pretty spot on with what Torvik estimates using his (unvalidated) "TRanketology" method. Here are the chances Torvik gives Duke of making the tourney based on their record going forward.

1-1 = 5%
2-1 = 20%
3-1 = 50%
4-1 = 70%

70% seems low for a 4-1 finish, but this should probably be put into context. Torvik's formula currently gives Virginia Tech a 70% chance of making the tourney and most folks would consider them a near lock at this point.

Note: These are based on Duke beating UNC on Saturday. I didn't feel like checking to see how remote the chances would be if Duke loses to UNC.

so that 4-1 is duke beating UNC, and then going 4-1 in the tournament? or is including the UNC win

[CDu]

so that 4-1 is duke beating UNC, and then going 4-1 in the tournament? or is including the UNC win

It would have to be 4-1 including a win over UNC. We can’t play 5 ACCT games if we beat UNC.

[uh_no]

It would have to be 4-1 including a win over UNC. We can’t play 5 ACCT games if we beat UNC.

i thought there was a 3-way tiebreaker that we come out worst of and end up playing tuesday? i just read that. i haven't bothered calculating anything this year.