Duke's NCAA Tourney Chances

[SouthernDukie]

Duke needs a tourney run to have any chance. This loss sealed that.

Duke needs more than a tourney run to get in. They need an ACC Tournament Championship to get in. Anything less and we are NIT bound (if K and the team even want that).

[uh_no]

at large? 0.

[heyman25]

Brakefield, Roach, and Steward did not rise to the occasion. Wide open looks and they are not even close.

[Music man55]

Well, I am proud of how they hung in there and kept fighting. Joey Baker showed a lot of grit to hit those shots in regulation. But, Steward and Roach really let us down in another late season game with a lot on the line. A miracle acc tourney win or nothing. Please beat the cheats sat. At least, that would be something.

[throatybeard]

I'll get back to y'all on our chances of winning the ACCT right after my wife and Olivia Wilde negotiate my hall pass with Olivia.

[gumbomoop]

Any chance of securing an at large bid is gone now, even if by some miracle we win Saturday.

Just for the sake of hallucinating, here’s a scenario. A very unlikely scenario, but...

1. Duke beats UNC.
2. Wins 8/9 game on Wed.
3. Beats FSU on Thurs.
4. Beats UL/VT/GT on Fri.
5. Exhausted, loses final on Sat.
6. Last team into NCAAT, play-in game.
7. Piece ‘o cake, Bob’s your uncle, give us a biscuit.

[duke2x]

With this loss, we’ll need to win ACCT or at least get to final. We’re very likely to be either 8/9 or 10 seed. We’ll be 10 and play on ACCT Tuesday if we lose to Heels, Syracuse beats Clemson, and NCSt wins @ ND and home to VT. Otherwise 8/9.

I see one omission. If State does not play VT due to Hokies being on COVID protocol, the NCSU-ND is for all the marbles. Go Irish.

[Steven43]

A miracle acc tourney win or nothing. Please beat the cheats sat. At least, that would be something.

As far as I’m concerned if we beat North Carolina this weekend in Chapel Hill it will have been a successful season, regardless of what else happens. Nothing in sports makes me as happy as beating UNC on their home court. I just wish the game were being played in Carmichael.

[throatybeard]

As far as I’m concerned if we beat North Carolina this weekend in Chapel Hill it will have been a successful season, regardless of what else happens. Nothing in sports makes me as happy as beating UNC on their home court. I just wish the game were being played in Carmichael.

That would be atmospheric, and it's a far better athletic venue than the Schnozz Dome, but Duke MBB went 2-18 there and I'm content for the Women's team to handle the place.

[gumbomoop]

I see one omission. If State does not play VT due to Hokies being on COVID protocol, the NCSU-ND is for all the marbles. Go Irish.

Yes, we don’t know yet — or do we? — whether the State-VT game will be played. If not, yes, we need ND (H) to beat State tomorrow, or Clemson (A) to beat Syracuse, or we beat the Heels.

[JetpackJesus]

Just for the sake of hallucinating, here’s a scenario. A very unlikely scenario, but...

1. Duke beats UNC.
2. Wins 8/9 game on Wed.
3. Beats FSU on Thurs.
4. Beats UL/VT/GT on Fri.
5. Exhausted, loses final on Sat.
6. Last team into NCAAT, play-in game.
7. Piece ‘o cake, Bob’s your uncle, give us a biscuit.

Is that 15-11 Duke team not just an at-large bid? That's at least 3 wins in a row against probable or possible NCAAT teams.

[JetpackJesus]

As far as I’m concerned if we beat North Carolina this weekend in Chapel Hill it will have been a successful season, regardless of what else happens. Nothing in sports makes me as happy as beating UNC on their home court. I just wish the game were being played in Carmichael.

Only disagreement from me is that an NCAA title makes me happier than beating UNC, regardless of venue. I might say an ACCT win also is higher, but that's a closer call for me. Like, I'd probably trade an ACCT win for a UNC sweep, but I would not make that trade if we're talking about an NCAA title.

[dukelifer]

Is that 15-11 Duke team not just an at-large bid? That's at least 3 wins in a row against probable or possible NCAAT teams.

Maybe Duke can come in as a 16 seed. Imagine Gonzaga having to play Duke in the opening round?

[SouthernDukie]

Only disagreement from me is that an NCAA title makes me happier than beating UNC, regardless of venue. I might say an ACCT win also is higher, but that's a closer call for me. Like, I'd probably trade an ACCT win for a UNC sweep, but I would not make that trade if we're talking about an NCAA title.

Definitely with you!

[duke2x]

Maybe Duke can come in as a 16 seed. Imagine Gonzaga having to play Duke in the opening round?

Historical precedent is usually a 14 seed for a surprise conference champion. UGA winning the SEC tournament @GT the year of the tornado is my best example. We drew a hot Colorado State team in the 2003 1st round in a semi-road game.

[Hartford Dukie]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjLCcFrkVEA

1. Early on, K calls out the perimeter/guards for their play the last two games.

2. And he compliments Georgia Tech for "creating a great environment - they have a band, cheerleaders, some fans - it helps, it really helps." K made no apology about this last point. Check it out.

[CoachJ10]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjLCcFrkVEA

1. Early on, K calls out the perimeter/guards for their play the last two games.

2. And he compliments Georgia Tech for "creating a great environment - they have a band, cheerleaders, some fans - it helps, it really helps." K made no apology about this last point. Check it out.

The last 2 minutes of that interview was great.

[gofurman]

well, if Clemson (33) would get in top 30 and Notre Dame (82) and NC State (76) would get in the top 75 of Net Duke would instantly gain 3 Q1 wins.. crazy. two of those are very possible. Go Tigers.. Go State.. not sure it would do anything but it would give Duke two more instant top wins per the committee

[scottdude8]

I know right now we're all very down (myself included... I picked a heck of a game to have to watch and analyze in great detail to write a story on, which made the heartbreak hit even harder!), and the flaws in our guard play that many (myself included) hoped were aberrations against Louisville but showed themselves to be closer to the norm last night mean it's going to be tough to beat UNC, let alone go on a mini-run in the Tournament. I fully, 100% acknowledge that, and I'm feeling similarly pessimistic (although just about this season... I reject wholeheartedly the argument that we're also doomed next season because our freshmen are struggling. Freshmen are freshmen. We've just been extremely lucky to have a run of freshmen over the past 5 years who don't play like it).

But, let's say for argument's sake that we DO beat UNC. There's still a path where we enter the ACCT with a shot (say, the probability of flipping a coin and getting heads twice in a row) at an at-large... remember, going into this week many of us thought we'd still be alive if we went 1-1, and that goal is still there. Already this week, Xavier and Boise State (two of the consensus "last eight in") had BAD losses (much worse than ours on the road against a NET Top 40 team). Richmond, one of the teams immediately below us on the bubble, also lost. And Indiana lost to MSU last night, which drops them below .500 on the year.

IF we can pull up an upset against UNC, we'd be 1-1 this week. That 1-1 week would arguably be better than the week Xavier, Boise State, Richmond, and Indiana can have even if they win their remaining games. MSU has to play Michigan twice, and if they lose both I'd argue a 1-1 week with a win at UNC would be better than MSU's 1-2 week with a win at home against Indiana. And as this week has shown, it's not out of the question for other bubble teams to get upset and fall back to the pack.

I know this is grasping at straws. I know our path to the tourney is extremely narrow. And I know it seems like it's over based on how our perimeter played last night, regardless of what happens elsewhere in the country. But we still have a feasible path to the tourney if we beat UNC on Saturday. Not probable, not likely, but feasible. I'm holding onto that hope, and I hope that hope makes these kids come out with their pants on fire in Chapel Hill.

[CDu]

I know right now we're all very down (myself included... I picked a heck of a game to have to watch and analyze in great detail to write a story on, which made the heartbreak hit even harder!), and the flaws in our guard play that many (myself included) hoped were aberrations against Louisville but showed themselves to be closer to the norm last night mean it's going to be tough to beat UNC, let alone go on a mini-run in the Tournament. I fully, 100% acknowledge that, and I'm feeling similarly pessimistic (although just about this season... I reject wholeheartedly the argument that we're also doomed next season because our freshmen are struggling. Freshmen are freshmen. We've just been extremely lucky to have a run of freshmen over the past 5 years who don't play like it).

But, let's say for argument's sake that we DO beat UNC. There's still a path where we enter the ACCT with a shot (say, the probability of flipping a coin and getting heads twice in a row) at an at-large... remember, going into this week many of us thought we'd still be alive if we went 1-1, and that goal is still there. Already this week, Xavier and Boise State (two of the consensus "last eight in") had BAD losses (much worse than ours on the road against a NET Top 40 team). Richmond, one of the teams immediately below us on the bubble, also lost. And Indiana lost to MSU last night, which drops them below .500 on the year.

IF we can pull up an upset against UNC, we'd be 1-1 this week. That 1-1 week would arguably be better than the week Xavier, Boise State, Richmond, and Indiana can have even if they win their remaining games. MSU has to play Michigan twice, and if they lose both I'd argue a 1-1 week with a win at UNC would be better than MSU's 1-2 week with a win at home against Indiana. And as this week has shown, it's not out of the question for other bubble teams to get upset and fall back to the pack.

I know this is grasping at straws. I know our path to the tourney is extremely narrow. And I know it seems like it's over based on how our perimeter played last night, regardless of what happens elsewhere in the country. But we still have a feasible path to the tourney if we beat UNC on Saturday. Not probable, not likely, but feasible. I'm holding onto that hope, and I hope that hope makes these kids come out with their pants on fire in Chapel Hill.

I think most of us thought we'd need to go 2-0 this week, not 1-1. So even in the scenario in which we beat UNC, I think we're swimming WAY upstream. We would probably need to make the ACC title game, and then be at the mercy of the selection committee.

You mention the example that MSU goes 1-2 this week. That may or may not be worse than our 1-1 (hard to compare really), but the bigger point is that we can't tread water with them. We were decidedly behind them coming into the week: they had more impressive wins, fewer bad losses, and a head-to-head win at our place. So we needed to win both to get back into the discussion with them, along with them losing both to Michigan. And given how Michigan played last night, there's no guarantee the Spartans lose both anyway, which would make their week decidedly better than ours on top of them already being clearly ahead of us coming in.

Treading water with the bubble teams isn't a strategy when we don't have a good resume. The reason we needed to get these 2 wins was to make our resume start to look more acceptable. Without it, we just have a nice (for a .500 ish team) computer rating lacking enough meat in terms of wins. And without the wins, it's not a tournament resume.

If we win against UNC AND win 3 ACCT games to get to the ACC Final, then sure, we have a shot as long as the tourney committee doesn't make a decision prior to the ACC Tournament results. It is not impossible, but REALLY unlikely. Let's say a 45% chance against UNC (per Torvik), a 55% chance in the 8/9 game, a 45% chance in the quarters, and a 45% chance in the semis. So, about a 5% chance, and then it comes down to how much cred the committee gives to our 15-11 record. Anything short of that, and we're probably not even in consideration.