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  1. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Yes. But MSU losing to a team comfortably in the tourney is undeniably a good thing.

    I know we’re all disappointed about last night and anxious about the end of the season, but maybe we don’t have to be contrarian about everything that anyone on this board posts that doesn’t say that the sky is falling...
    Sorry, Scott but I am inclined to agree with Tommy here. Duke had margin for error and had a home game. We tossed both of those away with that loss.

    I think that asking this team to win 2 road games against two very good teams (both ranked in the KenPom top 35) this week is probably more than they can do. I think going 1-1 would be a quite good week. We are almost certainly going to need to win a couple games in the ACC tourney... and we may need to beat a top tier ACC team to really make our case.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  2. #202
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    Dec 2007
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    Cary, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Yes. But MSU losing to a team comfortably in the tourney is undeniably a good thing.
    Unless you already believe that MSU is going to make the tournament, in which case you'd want them to win as many games as possible in order to make our loss to them look less bad.

    I'm not trying to be contrarian, just trying to say that we're in a weird position where things can sometimes swing in either direction. I do understand your point that what matters most is our position relative to other bubble teams. It's just hard to see things as being better now after our loss, even if our overall position might be the same.

  3. #203
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Sorry, Scott but I am inclined to agree with Tommy here. Duke had margin for error and had a home game. We tossed both of those away with that loss.

    I think that asking this team to win 2 road games against two very good teams (both ranked in the KenPom top 35) this week is probably more than they can do. I think going 1-1 would be a quite good week. We are almost certainly going to need to win a couple games in the ACC tourney... and we may need to beat a top tier ACC team to really make our case.
    Yep— Duke made this hard. The team has improved but they will need to show something in the tourney to have any shot.

  4. #204
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    Feb 2007
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    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Sorry, Scott but I am inclined to agree with Tommy here. Duke had margin for error and had a home game. We tossed both of those away with that loss.

    I think that asking this team to win 2 road games against two very good teams (both ranked in the KenPom top 35) this week is probably more than they can do. I think going 1-1 would be a quite good week. We are almost certainly going to need to win a couple games in the ACC tourney... and we may need to beat a top tier ACC team to really make our case.
    i think it’s almost a certainty we’ll have to beat a top tier team. If we are seeded anywhere from 7 to 10 which seems pretty likely, our first game will be a similarly seeded team, but to get that second win we’ll need, it would be against either the 1 or 2 seed — with us on short rest — which is looking like FSU and then, well, it is likeliest to be Virginia, the Hokies, or Louisville. Unless I’m missing something in the standings.

  5. #205
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    Feb 2007
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    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Unless you already believe that MSU is going to make the tournament, in which case you'd want them to win as many games as possible in order to make our loss to them look less bad.

    I'm not trying to be contrarian, just trying to say that we're in a weird position where things can sometimes swing in either direction. I do understand your point that what matters most is our position relative to other bubble teams. It's just hard to see things as being better now after our loss, even if our overall position might be the same.
    Yes. Trailing by a few with less time on the clock, the same number of points as before, isn't even with where you were before. It's worse. Next four out is just fine, no big deal, in January. It's markedly worse at a time like, I don't know, now. We are not even with where we were 48h ago before we pee-peed away the most winnable remaining game.

  6. #206
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    scottdude8 is offline Moderator, Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Jan 2010
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    Guess I’m in the minority here. My apologies.

    I like the analogy of us still being down, but there being less time on the clock. That is undeniably bad. However, people have been reacting as if we’re down double digits to a Top 10 team with a minute to go. What I’m trying to get across is that our situation is not nearly that dire: it is more akin to us being down 5 at the under 4 media timeout against a decent opponent. Do we lose that game more often than not? Yes. Do we pull out our fair share of them? Also yes.

    Again, the sky is not falling. It’s certainly dropped notably, but it isn’t yet falling. The overreactive pessimism on this board after every loss has gotten a touch exhausting, and I’m just trying to tell the rest of the story.
    Last edited by scottdude8; 02-28-2021 at 09:13 PM.
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  7. #207
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Guess I’m in the minority here. My apologies.
    Don't apologize. We're only in a bad position if we don't win our next two games. If we win our next two, your analysis is spot on. After we lost to VaTech, Pitt, and Louisville (first time), who thought we'd follow with two comfortable wins against GaTech and Clemson? After we lost to Miami, UNC, and Notre Dame, who thought we'd win our next four, including beating Virginia? This team seems to do OK when their backs are to the wall. This is why they play the games.

    Will we win the next two? I don't know. Neither does anyone else who thinks they do. Torvik has GaTech by 3.8 points and UNC by 1.5 points. Pomeroy has GaTech by 3.1 and UNC by 2.9. These are basically one possession games that could go either way. Are the odds in favor of us winning both? Of course not. But low-odds outcomes happen all the time. Our odds of winning both games are about the same as rolling a seven with two six-sided dice. And if you picked up a pair of dice and rolled a seven, would anybody be surprised?

    My unsupported guess is we either win both or lose both, we don't split. If we lose both, we'll have to win the ACC tournament to make the NCAAs. If we win both, all the stuff you're talking about will be very relevant. Keep it up.

  8. #208
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    San Francisco
    Let's make it easy for the Committee ... win our next five games and we're in.

  9. #209
    Under normal circumstances, by the final week of the regular schedule we’d be concerned about where we’ll land in the top 4 ACCT seeds, who’s on our side of the bracket, how our performance in the ACCT will affect our seeding for the NCAAT.

    Nothing normal this year, so now we are forced way outside our entitled comfort zone to think about a wider set of possibilities, a few of which are unpleasant.

    At the most optimistic, if pretty unlikely, end, we could get a 4-seed: Duke wins 2 this week while all of UNC, UL, and Clemson lose twice. A dream final week. Could actually happen, though “dream on” seems appropriate.

    At the most pessimistic end, hardly unimaginable if still unlikely, we could finish 10th: we lose twice while both Syracuse [home to UNC and Clemson] and NCSt [@ND and home to VT] each win twice. Finishing 10th means hoping to win 5-in-5 in the ACCT. Unless, in this dire scenario, someone thinks we could finish the regular season with 3 losses but still get into the NCAAT by going 4-1 or even just 3-1 in the ACCT. Anyone think that?

    Several scenarios could see us with a 5-6-7 seed, but all such include Duke winning twice this week.

    Should Duke go either 1-1 or 0-2 this week, we’re likely to get 8-9 seed.

    But 0-2 puts us in enough danger of dropping to the 10 seed that we have to hope somebody, anybody beats either NCSt or Syracuse. GTHC, for sure, but if the Heels escape hell Monday night, the Devils do get a grudging consolation prize.

  10. #210
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    scottdude8 is offline Moderator, Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Proof of how crazy life on the bubble is: Richmond, one of the “next four out”, just lost at home to a previously 3-14 team. These are the types of things that happen on the bubble. The field can fall back to us.
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  11. #211
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    ... take care of some business against Ga Tech first...please!
    Lots of reasons to agree with this urgent request. Lose to GT, and Duke will be flirting with a 10-seed and Tuesday game in the ACCT.

  12. #212
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    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Proof of how crazy life on the bubble is: Richmond, one of the “next four out”, just lost at home to a previously 3-14 team. These are the types of things that happen on the bubble. The field can fall back to us.
    Dayton also beat St Bonaventure, who had been on the 10-seed line before tonight according to bracketmatrix.

    And Rutgers, who are probably safe (but you never know) took a really bad loss to awful Nebraska. Rutgers had been an 8 before this.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  13. #213
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Dayton also beat St Bonaventure, who had been on the 10-seed line before tonight according to bracketmatrix.

    And Rutgers, who are probably safe (but you never know) took a really bad loss to awful Nebraska. Rutgers had been an 8 before this.
    So underachieving Nebraska played a whole lot better right after their most talented player opted out. How interesting ...

  14. #214
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    scottdude8 is offline Moderator, Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Not that anyone's worried about this right now, but there've been TWO big upsets on the bubble today that help Duke: Boise State lost at home to a very average Fresno State team, and Xavier lost to Georgetown. Both squads are in the "last 8 in" according to Bracket Matrix. Now time to do our job and pull this one out.
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  15. #215
    With this loss, we’ll need to win ACCT or at least get to final. We’re very likely to be either 8/9 or 10 seed. We’ll be 10 and play on ACCT Tuesday if we lose to Heels, Syracuse beats Clemson, and NCSt wins @ ND and home to VT. Otherwise 8/9.

  16. #216
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Van Nuys, CA
    Duke will be staying in Durham. Two blown opportunities. Louisville and tonight.

  17. #217
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Not that anyone's worried about this right now, but there've been TWO big upsets on the bubble today that help Duke: Boise State lost at home to a very average Fresno State team, and Xavier lost to Georgetown. Both squads are in the "last 8 in" according to Bracket Matrix. Now time to do our job and pull this one out.
    Duke needs a tourney run to have any chance. This loss sealed that.

  18. #218
    This looks a team with only 2 more games in them.

  19. #219
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    Feb 2007
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    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    With this loss, we’ll need to win ACCT or at least get to final. We’re very likely to be either 8/9 or 10 seed. We’ll be 10 and play on ACCT Tuesday if we lose to Heels, Syracuse beats Clemson, and NCSt wins @ ND and home to VT. Otherwise 8/9.
    Any chance of securing an at large bid is gone now, even if by some miracle we win Saturday.

    Winning the ACCT would be quite the story. I’m already looking to that. The heck with Saturday.

  20. #220
    With guard play like this - which is supposed to be the key to the tourney - what's the case for Duke deserving to go?

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