Duke's NCAA Tourney Chances

[gumbomoop]

Props to Wolfpack, who win 5 in a row, including 4 on road, after their humiliating loss to Duke. According to the ESPN website, Pack’s final game with VT is canceled.

So our only remaining chance to get 9 seed is to beat Heels.

Hallucinating yet again, here’s an ideal scenario: Duke beats Heels, UVa wins at UL, and, um ... FSU loses at ND. Presto! Duke plays Syracuse in 8/9, the winner getting 1-seed — UVa — in quarterfinals. Then onto GT in semis, and then winner of BC-VT for auto bid.

Piece ‘o cake, Bob’s your uncle, give us a biscuit.

[CDu]

My source says if we beat UNC, we get Syracuse in 8/9. UNC seems to hold tiebreaker over Syracuse. They split in regular season, but UNC has better winning % than does Syracuse against (presumed #1) FSU: .500 v. .000.

It depends. If Clemson loses to Pitt, then UNC would lose the 3-waytiebreaker.

[Pghdukie]

Are there any tentative seedings for ACC tourney yet ? I know it's still a week away, but just wondering Duke's path.

[CDu]

Are there any tentative seedings for ACC tourney yet ? I know it's still a week away, but just wondering Duke's path.

We will either be the 9 seed (if we beat UNC) or the 10 seed (if we lose). If the 10 seed, we would open with either Miami or BC (they play each other this weekend, we would get the loser). Then if we win we would get UNC (if Clemson beats Pitt) or Clemson (if Clemson loses). Then the 7/10 winner would get the 2 seed, which will be Any of UVa, FSU, or VT depending on this weekend.

If the 9 seed, we would play either Syracuse (if Clemson wins this weekend) or UNC (if Clemson loses). The 8/9 winner would then face FSU (if they win at Notre Dame or UVa loses at Louisville) or UVa (if UVa wins and FSU loses).

[hallcity]

We will either be the 9 seed (if we beat UNC) or the 10 seed (if we lose). If the 10 seed, we would open with either Miami or BC (they play each other this weekend, we would get the loser). Then if we win we would get UNC (if Clemson beats Pitt) or Clemson (if Clemson loses). Then the 7/10 winner would get the 2 seed, which will be Any of UVa, FSU, or VT depending on this weekend.

If the 9 seed, we would play either Syracuse (if Clemson wins this weekend) or UNC (if Clemson loses). The 8/9 winner would then face FSU (if they win at Notre Dame or UVa loses at Louisville) or UVa (if UVa wins and FSU loses).

There is the possibility that Va Tech will not be able to play in the ACC Tournament — they’ve already cancelled their Saturday game with NCSU — which would move everybody behind them up a notch.

[tommy]

There is the possibility that Va Tech will not be able to play in the ACC Tournament — they’ve already cancelled their Saturday game with NCSU — which would move everybody behind them up a notch.

The way a 14 team tournament would have to be structured is different from a 15 team tournament. Including different early matchups

[throatybeard]

Props to Wolfpack, who win 5 in a row, including 4 on road, after their humiliating loss to Duke.

I guess losing to Duke is a real wakeup call nowadays.

[CDu]

The way a 14 team tournament would have to be structured is different from a 15 team tournament. Including different early matchups

Yep. A 14-team tourney would push the 10 seed out of the play-in realm, with 11/14 and 12/13 being the only Tuesday games. In that scenario, the 10seed would go straight to the 7/10 on Wednesday.

[UrinalCake]

Thanks for the breakdown Cdu and others. I have to say, I’m looking forward to knocking UNC out of the tournament twice. One can dream, right?

I think there’s very little chance that all 15 teams participate. Some may be under Covid pause as mentioned, while others may simply opt out.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Thanks for the breakdown Cdu and others. I have to say, I’m looking forward to knocking UNC out of the tournament twice. One can dream, right?

I think there’s very little chance that all 15 teams participate. Some may be under Covid pause as mentioned, while others may simply opt out.

Is this a real likelihood? I mean, I keep hearing it being discussed. Sure, if VaTech has positive tests they clearly can't play. But will other teams opt out?

Would it be teams at the top who don't need to get wins for their resume? Or teams at the bottom that have very little realistic chance of winning?

It will be fascinating to see, I suppose. This coming week and the rest of the season might be quite interesting.

[Faustus]

Speaking of which, when is Louisville ever going to be put on actual probation by the NCAA (and unable to play in the toonamint)? How long can this drag on? (to which Dick Vitale will moan about how 'unfair' it is to the current players... Um, no, they knew this was coming when they signed on. Surely rival UK recruiters pointed this out to them once or twice)

[PackMan97]

Speaking of which, when is Louisville ever going to be put on actual probation by the NCAA (and unable to play in the toonamint)? How long can this drag on? (to which Dick Vitale will moan about how 'unfair' it is to the current players... Um, no, they knew this was coming when they signed on. Surely rival UK recruiters pointed this out to them once or twice)

About the same time UNC-CH gets punished for running a fake academic program that spanned three decades whose sole purpose was to keep athletes eligible.

[JasonEvans]

Can we just talk for a moment about how Duke could be 2 games over .500 in the ACC and still seeded in the bottom half of the conference. That just seems kinda unlikely to me. Although, when you look at Wake, BC, and Miami having only 8 total wins among all three teams, I guess it makes more sense.

[VA_BDevil]

Yep. A 14-team tourney would push the 10 seed out of the play-in realm, with 11/14 and 12/13 being the only Tuesday games. In that scenario, the 10seed would go straight to the 7/10 on Wednesday.

So what happens if a team has to drop out early next week, or the day before a game, or the day of a game? I'm guessing the ACC tournament will not be adjusting the brackets and schedules on the fly, so there's a possibility of forfeits, correct?

[throatybeard]

Pretty crazy that we are actually ranked ahead of Clemson in Kenpom...and many other tournament teams. Oh, what could have been...

But where are we ranked in Klemnop?

[scottdude8]

For those who are still trying to look through their rose colored glasses, even if they're broken and cracked and falling apart, Lunardi's latest Bracketology still offers some hope. We're still among the "first four out", thanks in large part to a lot of the teams on the bubble faltering recently. Interestingly, the three teams ahead of us on the "outside" are all mid-majors, so presumably a win at UNC would bump us ahead of all them (as they won't have the opportunity for a similar quality win). Two more mid-major teams, Drake and Boise State, are in the Last Four In.

Also worth noting that, in the most recent update to Bracket Matrix, there's a clear divide emerging: there's a near consensus about the bubble, with Boise State, Colorado State, Wichita State, Drake, Seton Hall, and MSU a clear 6 team field fighting for 5 spots. My reading on that is that there aren't too many teams that we'd have to "jump" to get back into the conversation, which is a good thing.

Again, I am NOT saying that we have an easy path to the tournament. I'm NOT saying I'm overly confident about our chances against UNC this weekend. What I AM saying is that, if we were to pull the upset, given how weak the bubble has been this past week, we may be in a better situation then many of us realize.

[uh_no]

What I AM saying is that, if we were to pull the upset, given how weak the bubble has been this past week, we may be in a better situation then many of us realize.

I think in general people don't have a good concept of how weak bubble teams actually are. when we're hemming about 1-seeds, we're not expecting them to lose. Bubble teams lose all the time. winning our next 3-4 games could be enough...the other bubble teams WILL lose games. I'm not saying the odds are great...but the chances of an at large bid aren't 0.

[scottdude8]

I think in general people don't have a good concept of how weak bubble teams actually are. when we're hemming about 1-seeds, we're not expecting them to lose. Bubble teams lose all the time. winning our next 3-4 games could be enough...the other bubble teams WILL lose games. I'm not saying the odds are great...but the chances of an at large bid aren't 0.

Exactly! That's the point I've been trying to make over the past week, and you just made it much more succinctly. We win on Saturday, and based on the weakness of the bubble, we have a chance. That's all we can control right now.

[throatybeard]

That point has been pretty throughly flogged here the last three or so weeks.

[scottdude8]

That point has been pretty throughly flogged here the last three or so weeks.

True... it just hasn't gotten through to more people than you might think