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  1. #1
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    Duke's NCAA Tourney Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    5-1 with loss to UVa = need a strong ACCT result
    5-1 with a win vs UVa and no loss to Wake = almost surely in
    6-0 = as close to surely in as can be without a top-25 spot
    ACCT = surely in
    Pretty close to where I stand. Here is my take --

    3-3 = no chance of NCAA bid even if we make the ACC tourney finals
    4-2 = a strong run in the ACC tourney might get us in as one of the final few teams in the field (if one of the wins is over Virginia, our odds are greatly enhanced here)
    5-1 but lose the Virginia game = just don't do something really embarrassing in the ACC tourney
    5-1 or 6-0 with a win over Virginia = Duke makes the NCAA tourney regardless of ACC tourney result
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Pretty close to where I stand. Here is my take --

    3-3 = no chance of NCAA bid even if we make the ACC tourney finals
    4-2 = a strong run in the ACC tourney might get us in as one of the final few teams in the field (if one of the wins is over Virginia, our odds are greatly enhanced here)
    5-1 but lose the Virginia game = just don't do something really embarrassing in the ACC tourney
    5-1 or 6-0 with a win over Virginia = Duke makes the NCAA tourney regardless of ACC tourney result
    I’d agree with this. So we’re saying there’s a chance!

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Pretty close to where I stand. Here is my take --

    3-3 = no chance of NCAA bid even if we make the ACC tourney finals
    4-2 = a strong run in the ACC tourney might get us in as one of the final few teams in the field (if one of the wins is over Virginia, our odds are greatly enhanced here)
    5-1 but lose the Virginia game = just don't do something really embarrassing in the ACC tourney
    5-1 or 6-0 with a win over Virginia = Duke makes the NCAA tourney regardless of ACC tourney result
    Following the Wake game, here are Duke's chances of making the tourney based on the "T-Ranketology Forecast". All percentages are based on Duke's odds entering the ACC tournament.

    Scenario Chance of at large bid
    Current 12.6%
    With win vs UVA 58.1%
    With loss vs UVA 4.3%
    Finish 5-0 94.4%
    Finish 4-1 with win vs UVA 76.2% - 83.1%
    Finish 4-1 with loss vs UVA 68.7%
    Finish 3-2 with win vs UVA 34.1% - 37.9%
    Finish 3-2 with loss vs UVA 25.3% - 31.1%
    Finish 2-3 less than 2%


    The UVA game is critical for Duke's NCAA tourney chances. Win and Duke is better than 50/50 to make the tourney. Lose and Duke has less than a 5% chance.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by House P View Post
    Following the Wake game, here are Duke's chances of making the tourney based on the "T-Ranketology Forecast". All percentages are based on Duke's odds entering the ACC tournament.

    Scenario Chance of at large bid
    Current 12.6%
    With win vs UVA 58.1%
    With loss vs UVA 4.3%
    Finish 5-0 94.4%
    Finish 4-1 with win vs UVA 76.2% - 83.1%
    Finish 4-1 with loss vs UVA 68.7%
    Finish 3-2 with win vs UVA 34.1% - 37.9%
    Finish 3-2 with loss vs UVA 25.3% - 31.1%
    Finish 2-3 less than 2%


    The UVA game is critical for Duke's NCAA tourney chances. Win and Duke is better than 50/50 to make the tourney. Lose and Duke has less than a 5% chance.
    This reflects how my gut feels about the game Saturday as well - if we win, then we control our own destiny to a degree, and I would expect us to be competitive in our remaining games. If we lose - even a close match - I see the rest of this season as setting the stage for next year's squad.

    And there's no shame in the latter, but I of course would prefer the former.

  5. #5
    Is there any chance that the FSU game gets re-scheduled? That would allow us another chance to get another "good win." That's the challenge right now is there aren't many opportunities. It's basically UVa.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by House P View Post
    Following the Wake game, here are Duke's chances of making the tourney based on the "T-Ranketology Forecast". All percentages are based on Duke's odds entering the ACC tournament.

    Scenario Chance of at large bid
    Current 12.6%
    With win vs UVA 58.1%
    With loss vs UVA 4.3%
    Finish 5-0 94.4%
    Finish 4-1 with win vs UVA 76.2% - 83.1%
    Finish 4-1 with loss vs UVA 68.7%
    Finish 3-2 with win vs UVA 34.1% - 37.9%
    Finish 3-2 with loss vs UVA 25.3% - 31.1%
    Finish 2-3 less than 2%


    The UVA game is critical for Duke's NCAA tourney chances. Win and Duke is better than 50/50 to make the tourney. Lose and Duke has less than a 5% chance.
    I don't quite agree, but I understand why Torvik's math says this. The issue is that those probabilities are being derived contingent on the assumption that past performance continues. It's saying "given that the team is of this quality, a win against UVa would do this and a loss would do this." But what it doesn't (and can't really) do is take into account whether the team is systematically different from earlier in the season.

    Now, obviously beating UVa would be a huge boost to the resume relative to losing. But I don't think it's nearly that simple. If we are a better team now than we were two weeks ago, then that affects not just our chances against UVa but also our chances in every subsequent game. So even if we lose to UVa, I think our chances of an at large are better than 5%. They would be low, but I don't think that low. If we lose a nailbiter to UVa, thus continuing the progress that the team has made over the past two games, and carries that moving forward, I think our chances against Louisville, Syracuse, @Ga Tech, and @UNC get much better than what the math currently suggests. Essentially, by taking the entire season into account, the math MIGHT be being dragged down by performance of a team that no longer exists.

    Obviously, it's hard to say, because the sample is just two games. But I would argue that if we beat UVa, we're really much better than a 50/50 to make the tourney. If we lose close to UVa, we're probably more like a 15-20% chance. If we get handled easily by UVa, it's probably more a 5% or less chance.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I don't quite agree, but I understand why Torvik's math says this. The issue is that those probabilities are being derived contingent on the assumption that past performance continues. It's saying "given that the team is of this quality, a win against UVa would do this and a loss would do this." But what it doesn't (and can't really) do is take into account whether the team is systematically different from earlier in the season.

    Now, obviously beating UVa would be a huge boost to the resume relative to losing. But I don't think it's nearly that simple. If we are a better team now than we were two weeks ago, then that affects not just our chances against UVa but also our chances in every subsequent game. So even if we lose to UVa, I think our chances of an at large are better than 5%. They would be low, but I don't think that low. If we lose a nailbiter to UVa, thus continuing the progress that the team has made over the past two games, and carries that moving forward, I think our chances against Louisville, Syracuse, @Ga Tech, and @UNC get much better than what the math currently suggests. Essentially, by taking the entire season into account, the math MIGHT be being dragged down by performance of a team that no longer exists.

    Obviously, it's hard to say, because the sample is just two games. But I would argue that if we beat UVa, we're really much better than a 50/50 to make the tourney. If we lose close to UVa, we're probably more like a 15-20% chance. If we get handled easily by UVa, it's probably more a 5% or less chance.
    I agree with CDu. The model puts a great deal of reliance on poor past performance. Proof in that pudding lies in the assertion that a "loss to UVa" alone gives us a 4.3% chance but "Finish 3-2 with loss vs UVA" gives us a 25.3% to 31.1% chance. In other words, if we lose to UVa, this model gives us only a very small possibility of going 3-1 against our remaining opponents.

    Of course it's also possible that the full season does accurately describe our team, in which case Torvik may be right. Evidence for that is after we played very well against GaTech and Clemson, we followed it up with three total stinkers. But as I said, I agree with CDu that there's a pretty good chance that we really have turned a corner this time. Time will tell, I suppose.

  8. #8
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    Cambridge, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I don't quite agree, but I understand why Torvik's math says this. The issue is that those probabilities are being derived contingent on the assumption that past performance continues. It's saying "given that the team is of this quality, a win against UVa would do this and a loss would do this." But what it doesn't (and can't really) do is take into account whether the team is systematically different from earlier in the season.

    Now, obviously beating UVa would be a huge boost to the resume relative to losing. But I don't think it's nearly that simple. If we are a better team now than we were two weeks ago, then that affects not just our chances against UVa but also our chances in every subsequent game. So even if we lose to UVa, I think our chances of an at large are better than 5%. They would be low, but I don't think that low. If we lose a nailbiter to UVa, thus continuing the progress that the team has made over the past two games, and carries that moving forward, I think our chances against Louisville, Syracuse, @Ga Tech, and @UNC get much better than what the math currently suggests. Essentially, by taking the entire season into account, the math MIGHT be being dragged down by performance of a team that no longer exists.

    Obviously, it's hard to say, because the sample is just two games. But I would argue that if we beat UVa, we're really much better than a 50/50 to make the tourney. If we lose close to UVa, we're probably more like a 15-20% chance. If we get handled easily by UVa, it's probably more a 5% or less chance.
    Excellent point about Duke's odds of an at-large bid being higher than 5% if they play the rest of the season at a higher level than their current T-Rank rating (49). T-Rank takes this into account somewhat with an option called "DynamaRank". With this option, a team's underlying rating is changed when the result of a specific game is manually changed. For example, if I choose Duke to beat UVA, this feature takes into account that Duke will be rated higher than 49 going forward.

    That being said, with a loss to UVA, a 15-20% chance of entering the ACC tournament on the right side of the bubble may be too high if you assume that Duke pretty much has to win out* if they lose to UVA. Duke would have to have transformed into a Top 15 caliber team to have a 15% chance of going 4-0 vs Syracuse, Louisville, Ga Tech, and UNC. Duke would have to be a Top 10 caliber team to have a 20% chance of finishing 4-0.

    I sincerely hope that Duke has transformed itself into a top 10-15 caliber team. However, I am not sold on this yet and a close loss to UVA probably wouldn't convince me as this is what T-Rank already expects (UVA favored by 2).




    *T-Rank gives Duke a 70% chance of an at-large bid if they lose to UVA but win the rest of their regular season games. T-Rank give Duke a 25-30% chance if they finish 3-2 with a loss to UVA. While finishing 3-1 is much more likely than 4-0, 25-30% seems too high to me for a 12-10 team with no signature wins. In other words, while T-Rank may underestimate Duke's chances of finishing 4-0 after a loss to UVA, it may also overestimate Duke's chances of getting a bid after finishing 3-2 with a loss to UVA.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by House P View Post
    Following the Wake game, here are Duke's chances of making the tourney based on the "T-Ranketology Forecast". All percentages are based on Duke's odds entering the ACC tournament.

    Scenario Chance of at large bid
    Current 12.6%
    With win vs UVA 58.1%
    With loss vs UVA 4.3%
    Finish 5-0 94.4%
    Finish 4-1 with win vs UVA 76.2% - 83.1%
    Finish 4-1 with loss vs UVA 68.7%
    Finish 3-2 with win vs UVA 34.1% - 37.9%
    Finish 3-2 with loss vs UVA 25.3% - 31.1%
    Finish 2-3 less than 2%


    The UVA game is critical for Duke's NCAA tourney chances. Win and Duke is better than 50/50 to make the tourney. Lose and Duke has less than a 5% chance.
    Interesting that our chances would be better with the quality win vs. UVA but also another loss to a not-great-or-worse team, than they would be with beating everyone we're supposed to and losing to a top 10 UVA squad. The quality win would apparently carry more positive weight than the negative of yet another Q2 (or worse?) loss.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by House P View Post
    That being said, with a loss to UVA, a 15-20% chance of entering the ACC tournament on the right side of the bubble may be too high if you assume that Duke pretty much has to win out* if they lose to UVA. Duke would have to have transformed into a Top 15 caliber team to have a 15% chance of going 4-0 vs Syracuse, Louisville, Ga Tech, and UNC. Duke would have to be a Top 10 caliber team to have a 20% chance of finishing 4-0.

    I sincerely hope that Duke has transformed itself into a top 10-15 caliber team. However, I am not sold on this yet and a close loss to UVA probably wouldn't convince me as this is what T-Rank already expects (UVA favored by 2).
    Yep, that sounds about right. Worth noting that over the past two games we HAVE been playing like a top-10 team (actually, better than that). So another top-10 performance, even in a loss, would align nicely with that 15-20% range.

    Quote Originally Posted by House P View Post
    *T-Rank gives Duke a 70% chance of an at-large bid if they lose to UVA but win the rest of their regular season games. T-Rank give Duke a 25-30% chance if they finish 3-2 with a loss to UVA. While finishing 3-1 is much more likely than 4-0, 25-30% seems too high to me for a 12-10 team with no signature wins. In other words, while T-Rank may underestimate Duke's chances of finishing 4-0 after a loss to UVA, it may also overestimate Duke's chances of getting a bid after finishing 3-2 with a loss to UVA.
    And this sounds right too. If we lose to UVa and finish 4-0 thereafter, we'll need to have a solid ACC tourney to secure a bit. Don't need to win, but can't lose early. And would probably want to beat at least one tourney/bubble team in the process.

    I agree that a 12-10 team would have a really hard sell at making the at-large path.

    I think a win against UVa would be confirmation that this team is now different from the one from a few weeks ago. A close loss would suggest similar. A not-so-close loss would suggest we're probably not really different than before, and thus probably going to stay too close to .500 to threaten making the tournament.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by House P View Post
    Excellent point about Duke's odds of an at-large bid being higher than 5% if they play the rest of the season at a higher level than their current T-Rank rating (49). T-Rank takes this into account somewhat with an option called "DynamaRank". With this option, a team's underlying rating is changed when the result of a specific game is manually changed. For example, if I choose Duke to beat UVA, this feature takes into account that Duke will be rated higher than 49 going forward.
    Just wanted to point out that I made an error in my post. Duke is currently ranked 39 in T-Rank, not 49.

  12. #12
    If Duke goes 4-1 to close out the regular season (whether we beat Virginia or not), we'll have an 11-7 ACC record. When's the last time an 11-win ACC team has not made the tourney? I'm thinking never.


    (not counting last season, obviously)
    Last edited by Kedsy; 02-18-2021 at 03:52 PM.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    If Duke goes 4-1 to close out the regular season (whether we beat Virginia or not), we'll have an 11-7 ACC record. When's the last time an 11-win ACC team has not made the tourney?


    (not counting last season, obviously)
    It's not comparable across years/eras. 11-1, 11-3, 11-5, and 11-7 (and 11-9) are all different things. 11-7 is actually a worse percentage than 10-6. And 10-6 was not a total at-large lock, depending on the strength of the NCAAT at-large field that year and what you did in the OOC schedule. Which in our case was get beat by an MSU that won't make it, and get absolutely run by Illinois.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    If Duke goes 4-1 to close out the regular season (whether we beat Virginia or not), we'll have an 11-7 ACC record. When's the last time an 11-win ACC team has not made the tourney?


    (not counting last season, obviously)
    2013. It's possible we'd be left out given our lack of meaningful non-conference wins and uncertainty of what other teams will do. Winning out is the only thing that will make me feel confident... going 4-1 makes it possible pending ACC tournament results.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    If Duke goes 4-1 to close out the regular season (whether we beat Virginia or not), we'll have an 11-7 ACC record. When's the last time an 11-win ACC team has not made the tourney?


    (not counting last season, obviously)
    Syracuse went 10-8 in 2017 and didn't make the tournament.

    When was the last time the ACC was this bad? And when is the last time Duke didn't have a solid win in non-conference?
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Syracuse went 10-8 in 2017 and didn't make the tournament.

    When was the last time the ACC was this bad? And when is the last time Duke didn't have a solid win in non-conference?
    True, but clearly this year was anomalous in that we really only had one opportunity for a solid win, and that was a top 5 team. Typically, we play 3-4 quality opponents in non-conference.

    Obviously, this year is a lot different...

    Kenpom seems to assess Duke as being tournament-quality, but the dearth of good wins really is going to hurt Duke with the committee. Hopefully, we can take care of business from here on out.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    2013. It's possible we'd be left out given our lack of meaningful non-conference wins and uncertainty of what other teams will do. Winning out is the only thing that will make me feel confident... going 4-1 makes it possible pending ACC tournament results.
    What 11-win ACC team didn't make the tournament in 2013? I checked the standings and unless the standings I saw were wrong, there were four 11-win ACC teams and they all participated in the NCAAT.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    True, but clearly this year was anomalous in that we really only had one opportunity for a solid win, and that was a top 5 team. Typically, we play 3-4 quality opponents in non-conference.

    Obviously, this year is a lot different...

    Kenpom seems to assess Duke as being tournament-quality, but the dearth of good wins really is going to hurt Duke with the committee. Hopefully, we can take care of business from here on out.
    MSU was a top 10 team when we played them. And both of those Big 10 games were at home (there is still a home-court advantage despite a lack of fans).

    While Duke didn't have as much opportunity to showcase during the non-conf schedule, they still had opportunity.

    What hurts Duke the most are those Miami, Pitt, and ND at home games. Miami is ranked 129, Pitt is ranked 77, and ND ranked 56 (kenpom). Win two of those, and Duke is 9-4 in the ACC.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    What 11-win ACC team didn't make the tournament in 2013? I checked the standings and unless the standings I saw were wrong, there were four 11-win ACC teams and they all participated in the NCAAT.
    UVa. 11-7 record. NIT.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    MSU was a top 10 team when we played them. And both of those Big 10 games were at home (there is still a home-court advantage despite a lack of fans).

    While Duke didn't have as much opportunity to showcase during the non-conf schedule, they still had opportunity.

    What hurts Duke the most are those Miami, Pitt, and ND at home games. Miami is ranked 129, Pitt is ranked 77, and ND ranked 56 (kenpom). Win two of those, and Duke is 9-4 in the ACC.
    True...so close each of those games... I guess on the other side, we had close wins vs BC (although were up that entire game) and Ga Tech. I think Ga Tech is legit the only competitive game that we've won (i.e. anybody's game with like 2 minutes to go). All the other "competitive games down the stretch" we've lost. And the rest of our wins were comfortable. And I feel like the only two "non-competitive" losses were IL and MSU, but perhaps I'm forgetting one or two...

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