Duke's NCAA Tourney Chances

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Games of interest for Duke’s tourney resume, besides the obvious:
Noon: Michigan v Indiana. Root for my Wolverines to potentially knock Indiana out of the tourney field!
Syracuse v GT. Even though they’re closer to us on the bubble, we probably want GT to win so that our upcoming road game against them is a solid Q1 opportunity.
Two o’clock: Clemson v Miami. Root for Clemson to avoid the upset and potentially creep into the NET top 30 to give us another Q1 win.
Notre Dame at BC: If the Irish finish strong our road win against them could be Q1, so root for Mike Brey’s squad.
2:30: Marquette vs UConn. UConn is still one of the last teams in, so let’s get some more help from Wojo!
4 o’clock: FSU vs UNC. Duh.
Wake vs Va Tech: Maybe the Demon Deacs get hot and raise the profile of our sweep of them.
5 o’clock: Creighton vs Xavier. Xavier is one of the last teams in, so root for Alex O’Connell and Creighton to help us out.
7 o’clock: Nebraska vs Minnesota. A loss to the B1G bottom feeders could knock the Golden Gophers out of the projected field.

I appreciate your break downs and I trust your analysis, but I'll stick with rooting for Duke to win and assuming everything else will work itself out.

[scottdude8]

I think I'll be doing something else at 7pm tonight.

Well that was dumb on my part, haha. Flip over to watch the second half after our victory

[scottdude8]

I appreciate your break downs and I trust your analysis, but I'll stick with rooting for Duke to win and assuming everything else will work itself out.

Fair enough! I agree that is priority No. 1 wholeheartedly... I just think it’s always more fun to watch non-Duke games with a rooting interest, haha.

[UrinalCake]

Two o’clock: Clemson v Miami. Root for Clemson to avoid the upset and potentially creep into the NET top 30 to give us another Q1 win.

Any chance a win by Miami would push them out of Q3 range and into Q2? Our resume would have a lot less tarnish if we had no Q3 losses (I’m assuming MSU will remain Q2 as well)

[scottdude8]

Any chance a win by Miami would push them out of Q3 range and into Q2? Our resume would have a lot less tarnish if we had no Q3 losses (I’m assuming MSU will remain Q2 as well)

Clemson is closer to moving from Q2 to Q1 than Miami from Q3 to Q2 last I checked.

[throatybeard]

G
7 o’clock: Nebraska vs Minnesota. A loss to the B1G bottom feeders could knock the Golden Gophers out of the projected field.

Nebraska is 5-17. They're a bottom dweller, not a bottom feeder; indeed at five wins, they've scarcely fed on anyone.

[UrinalCake]

Clemson is closer to moving from Q2 to Q1 than Miami from Q3 to Q2 last I checked.

So then the question is, would you rather have a Q2 win and a Q2 loss, or a Q1 win and a Q3 loss?

[scottdude8]

So then the question is, would you rather have a Q2 win and a Q2 loss, or a Q1 win and a Q3 loss?

Recent history tells us the committee cares more about good wins than bad losses... I’ve delved into that in detail over the past few years, particularly when it comes to a couple of questionable Kansas No. 1 seeds. Based on that I’d certainly choose the latter if I had to.

[Udaman]

Our magic number is 3.

We need 3 more wins to make the tournament. No more. No less.

Beat Louisville, Ga Tech and UNC, we are in.

Beat 2 of the 3, then we need to win our first game in the ACC tourney.

Beat only 1 of them, then we need to win our first two games.

Lose to all 3 and we need to win 3 games in the tournament.

Pretty simple.

[robed deity]

Our magic number is 3.

We need 3 more wins to make the tournament. No more. No less.

Beat Louisville, Ga Tech and UNC, we are in.

Beat 2 of the 3, then we need to win our first game in the ACC tourney.

Beat only 1 of them, then we need to win our first two games.

Lose to all 3 and we need to win 3 games in the tournament.

Pretty simple.

I, for one, am hoping five is not "right out."

[throatybeard]

The best way to convince me that it's more complicated than the speaker asserts is a blanket assertion about how simple it is.

[jimsumner]

Our magic number is 3.

We need 3 more wins to make the tournament. No more. No less.

.

More would still be nice.

[scottdude8]

So, we lost a big opportunity tonight. But anyone who says this means we have to win the ACCT to make the tourney is flat out wrong.

On BracketMatrix entering today, Indiana was the last at large team in, but they lost bad to Michigan. The next three at large teams are from mid major conferences (Colorado State, Wichita State) or sliding back big time in an average conference (Seton Hall). Meanwhile, the teams directly below us all lost with the exception of Xavier... Minnesota’s loss to Nebraska, the worst team in the B1G, is particularly crippling, and Stanford lost again to a subpar Pac 12 team.

We have an opportunity to beat one of the teams directly ahead of us (GT) on Tuesday. That alone would probably be better win than any of those mid majors can get down the stretch. Oh, and Seton Hall and UConn still have to play each other.

While we lost, other bubble teams are losing too... as they’re wont to do being average teams. One could argue that the distance between us and the teams below us actually got larger today since their losses were much more disappointing then ours. We still control our own destiny guys. And it starts with a win on Tuesday.

[gumbomoop]

We still control our own destiny guys. And it starts with a win on Tuesday.

Absolutely true, though it — “destiny”=NCAAT bid — also comes pretty close to ending with a loss on Tuesday. In the sense that anything other than 2-0 next week would surely necessitate, at a minimum, getting to the ACCT final.

Many of us like playing with this ACCT bracket generator. http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb

We could actually still get as high as an ACCT 4-seed, though that would require winning 2 tough road games and having a few other games help us. Barely possible, but not likely. [Would require, e.g., UNC to lose to Syracuse and us, and Louisville to lose @VT and home to UVa.] At the other end, go 1-1 or 0-2 next week, and we’re likely in the 8-9 slot.

My view is we’d be doing quite well to go 2-0 and have the other games play out to give us 6-7 seed. Our first ACCT opponent — wherever we land from ACCT seeds 5-9 — is likely to come from Syracuse, NCST, ND, Pitt. I suppose one of BC, Miami, Wake — the highly likely 13-15 seeds — could win on ACCT Tuesday and Duke could play one of them on ACCT Wednesday. But even that long-shot ACCT Wednesday possibility probably requires us to win @GT and @UNC.

Because, to repeat, go 1-1 or 0-2 next week and we’re very likely an 8-9 seed.

[scottdude8]

Bad news: NDs loss yesterday dropped them out of the top 75 and costs us a Q1 win. There’s only one on our resume right now, which is arguably more problematic than our loss last night.

Good news: we have 3 potential wins that could move up into Q1. Along with ND, which is still on the border of the top 75, NC State is very close to that mark, and Clemson is very near the top 30 to make our home win Q1.

UNC and GT are both in the top 42 right now, meaning our games against them will not only be Q1 games, but GOOD Q1 games. Plus, with where teams like Clemson and Va Tech currently stand, it’s very likely that a second game in the ACCT will also be Q1. There’s the outside possibility a potential first game against Syracuse could be Q1 if the Orange finish strong and sneak into the top 50. Beating UNC Monday would really help that.

I’m going to put together a detailed writeup of various rooting interests for the last week of the regular season tomorrow... but long story short, root for the current teams just inside the Top 30 and 75 to lose!

[hallcity]

It’s a shame Duke lost yesterday but Duke’s real problem isn’t that loss so much as it is the losses to Miami, Norte Dame and Pitt. Change those three losses to wins and Duke would be sitting in second place in the conference and would be a lock for the NCAA tournament. Each of these seemed like a terrible loss at the time but taken together they’re just devastating.

[arnie]

It’s a shame Duke lost yesterday but Duke’s real problem isn’t that loss so much as it is the losses to Miami, Norte Dame and Pitt. Change those three losses to wins and Duke would be sitting in second place in the conference and would be a lock for the NCAA tournament. Each of these seemed like a terrible loss at the time but taken together they’re just devastating.

Bet UVA, Syracuse and State fans talking about their terrible recent loss to Duke😣

[scottdude8]

Good news everyone! (Sorry, I’ve been rewatching Futurama since it’s finally streaming again in Canada, haha). MSU just lost to Maryland.

This means that, despite our loss yesterday, not too many bubble teams actually gained ground on us, outside of Xavier (beat Creighton) and GT (which helps us if we can beat them Tuesday). Our status entering the final week is arguably similar to what it was entering yesterday: on the outside looking in, but with a feasible pathway to the tourney that’s entirely within our control.

We’ve got a tough road. But so does MSU, and Indiana, and GT, and Xavier, and on and on. Time to seize control of our destiny and win on Tuesday.

[tommy]

Good news everyone! (Sorry, I’ve been rewatching Futurama since it’s finally streaming again in Canada, haha). MSU just lost to Maryland.

This means that, despite our loss yesterday, not too many bubble teams actually gained ground on us, outside of Xavier (beat Creighton) and GT (which helps us if we can beat them Tuesday). Our status entering the final week is arguably similar to what it was entering yesterday: on the outside looking in, but with a feasible pathway to the tourney that’s entirely within our control.

We’ve got a tough road. But so does MSU, and Indiana, and GT, and Xavier, and on and on. Time to seize control of our destiny and win on Tuesday.

The difference between our position today and a few days ago, of course, is that a few days ago we had a very winnable home game still ahead of us and a little bit of margin for error. Now we have that opportunity gone, and just two games, both on the road, both against teams that are our equal or better, both of whom need the wins badly too, and we have zero margin for error. Way more pressure on us.

[scottdude8]

The difference between our position today and a few days ago, of course, is that a few days ago we had a very winnable home game still ahead of us and a little bit of margin for error. Now we have that opportunity gone, and just two games, both on the road, both against teams that are our equal or better, both of whom need the wins badly too, and we have zero margin for error. Way more pressure on us.

Yes. But MSU losing to a team comfortably in the tourney is undeniably a good thing.

I know we’re all disappointed about last night and anxious about the end of the season, but maybe we don’t have to be contrarian about everything that anyone on this board posts that doesn’t say that the sky is falling...