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  1. #341
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    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    Because we have but the slimmest of chances to make the NCAAT, I’ve already mostly moved on to “next season” thoughts — of Griffin and Banchero, of the possibility that we’ll get Keels, of my (non-pollyannish) expectations of solid soph years from Steward and Williams, hopes for leadership, confidence, and consistency from Moore.

    Yet I do wish I knew, am truly fan-curious about, how Krzyzewski and staff are preparing for the ACCT. In some ways it might reflect K’s approach to the 2017 ACCT, when Duke was the 5-seed, looking at the daunting task of needing to win on 4 straight days. This year the task is yet more daunting.

    Of course I have no idea how the staff are preparing the players. I have a few questions, some speculation.

    Would the staff spend all of Sunday’s and Monday’s prep on BC — one game at a time, can’t look forward to UL or we’ll simply falter against BC? Having played UL twice, the staff already knows how to prepare for UL, so if we get past BC, spend Tues eve and Wed midday (?) just going over UL-Duke games, what to do better this time, how to try to contain Jones and Johnson, etc.

    In one limited sense, Duke has the “advantage” of knowing who its first 3 opponents will be, if successful on Tues and then Wed. So the staff must be preparing general game-plans for UL and FSU.

    Whatever they tell the players before (we hope) facing UL and FSU, respectively, the staff must know that Duke might be able to stay with UL and FSU offensively, but that defensively Duke couldn’t deal in either game this season with UL’s Jones (among others) and would next face a major defensive challenge playing for the 3d straight day against a rested and angry FSU, #10 AdjO (Kpom).

    So, any chance K would throw the dice with the zone for the “entire” tournament, 1 game, or 2, or at least 3? Sunday and Monday, is K literally thinking only of BC, or is he “planning for the tournament,” at least the known tournament he can see in front of his team? Would he use the BC game, in effect, to practice playing the zone he might think is Duke’s best option on Wed and Thurs, perhaps all week long, however long the week? Does K think Duke could beat either UL or FSU with our m2m?

    Surely he couldn’t throw the dice in another way, using a lot of press, rotating frequently? No, the zone seems a better guess. Just a guess.

    How about the larger question of squad rotation? Doesn’t K have to use all of players 7-10 (Brakefield, Baker, Coleman, and Tape) against BC? And specifically on those 4, doesn’t K have to use each of them for more than just 2-3 minutes each? Is it: Do whatever you need to do to beat BC, even if that means playing only 7 guys, 6 of them for 32 minutes each? Or is it: Calibrate playing time to beat BC and keep your top 6 players around 25 minutes each? Which would mean — I know all of you can count — 16-18 minutes each for Brakefield and Baker, and 7-10 each for Coleman and Tape.

    K isn’t just giving up. So what’s his approach? What’s his plan? What should be the plan?


    .
    I'd say we better just be concerned about BC. Coach K said in his postgame presser they would take the approach of one game at a time. Resting players to have them ready for the next game sounds like betting on the come in cards.

    GoDuke!

  2. #342
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    In one limited sense, Duke has the “advantage” of knowing who its first 3 opponents will be, if successful on Tues and then Wed. So the staff must be preparing general game-plans for UL and FSU.
    Maybe. If Va Tech isn't able to play, that would throw everything out the window.

    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    So, any chance K would throw the dice with the zone for the “entire” tournament, 1 game, or 2, or at least 3? Sunday and Monday, is K literally thinking only of BC, or is he “planning for the tournament,” at least the known tournament he can see in front of his team? Would he use the BC game, in effect, to practice playing the zone he might think is Duke’s best option on Wed and Thurs, perhaps all week long, however long the week? Does K think Duke could beat either UL or FSU with our m2m?
    If we were to go full zone, I'd prefer it to be the 2-3 than the 3-2. It would better suit Williams and Hurt. Of course, since we haven't played the 2-3 all year, I'd be quite surprised to see it sprung for the tournament. For a team that has been thrown so many curveballs already, I'm not sure that would work out well. But I wouldn't completely rule it out.

    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    How about the larger question of squad rotation? Doesn’t K have to use all of players 7-10 (Brakefield, Baker, Coleman, and Tape) against BC? And specifically on those 4, doesn’t K have to use each of them for more than just 2-3 minutes each? Is it: Do whatever you need to do to beat BC, even if that means playing only 7 guys, 6 of them for 32 minutes each? Or is it: Calibrate playing time to beat BC and keep your top 6 players around 25 minutes each? Which would mean — I know all of you can count — 16-18 minutes each for Brakefield and Baker, and 7-10 each for Coleman and Tape.
    Barring a blowout, I would be absolutely shocked to see this minutes for our end of bench guys in a must-win game. Especially given that we barely beat BC at home earlier this year.

  3. #343
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Maybe. If Va Tech isn't able to play, that would throw everything out the window.
    This development would advantage Duke, and undoubtedly other teams. But almost surely Duke.

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    If we were to go full zone, I'd prefer it to be the 2-3 than the 3-2. It would better suit Williams and Hurt. Of course, since we haven't played the 2-3 all year, I'd be quite surprised to see it sprung for the tournament. For a team that has been thrown so many curveballs already, I'm not sure that would work out well. But I wouldn't completely rule it out.
    Zone strikes me as least bad of all K’s options, of which none are good. Because both FSU and UL lost on Sat, they wound up as our path. Our guards can’t contain Jones. And FSU’s O appears very strong. I’m not at all sure any zone will work, but I do wonder whether K might think he has little choice but to try to push opponents to shoot more 3’s, hope they miss.

    Repeat: no good options, zone may be least bad.

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Barring a blowout, I would be absolutely shocked to see this minutes for our end of bench guys in a must-win game. Especially given that we barely beat BC at home earlier this year.
    I suspect you’re right, but “one at a time” also poses problems when facing 5 in a row. I expect to see all 10 players in first half v. BC. Clearly, K hopes for blowout, big lead 2d half. Should be able comfortably to rotate Roach, Steward, and Goldwire at the guards, but Baker also needs to spell Moore for more than just 5-6 minutes. (If a game against BC is too fast for Baker ... I don’t even want to finish that thought.) And Hurt and Williams need sigificant-minutes-help from Brakefield and at least one, preferably both, of Coleman and Tape.

    I’m just speculating that K might do some “calibrating” for the BC game. Then of course readjust the calibration beyond [far fewer minutes for end-of-bench for UL], if there is a beyond. So I will be surprised if K doesn’t use all 10 in first half v. BC, and at least 9 in first half if we play UL.

    To be clear, I wasn’t suggesting those big minutes for players 7-10 all tournament long. Just for BC. [“Calibrate playing time to beat BC...”]

  4. #344
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    This development would advantage Duke, and undoubtedly other teams. But almost surely Duke.



    Zone strikes me as least bad of all K’s options, of which none are good. Because both FSU and UL lost on Sat, they wound up as our path. Our guards can’t contain Jones. And FSU’s O appears very strong. I’m not at all sure any zone will work, but I do wonder whether K might think he has little choice but to try to push opponents to shoot more 3’s, hope they miss.

    Repeat: no good options, zone may be least bad.



    I suspect you’re right, but “one at a time” also poses problems when facing 5 in a row. I expect to see all 10 players in first half v. BC. Clearly, K hopes for blowout, big lead 2d half. Should be able comfortably to rotate Roach, Steward, and Goldwire at the guards, but Baker also needs to spell Moore for more than just 5-6 minutes. (If a game against BC is too fast for Baker ... I don’t even want to finish that thought.) And Hurt and Williams need sigificant-minutes-help from Brakefield and at least one, preferably both, of Coleman and Tape.

    I’m just speculating that K might do some “calibrating” for the BC game. Then of course readjust the calibration beyond [far fewer minutes for end-of-bench for UL], if there is a beyond. So I will be surprised if K doesn’t use all 10 in first half v. BC, and at least 9 in first half if we play UL.

    To be clear, I wasn’t suggesting those big minutes for players 7-10 all tournament long. Just for BC. [“Calibrate playing time to beat BC...”]
    Agree with your last 2 paragraphs. If we need to play guys 38 minutes each to beat BC we’re not competitive going forward anyway. Play many players and rest starters so there’s a chance later in week.

  5. #345
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by arnie View Post
    Agree with your last 2 paragraphs. If we need to play guys 38 minutes each to beat BC we’re not competitive going forward anyway. Play many players and rest starters so there’s a chance later in week.
    Amen to that. I know K will never do it, but I'd like to see guys like Coleman and Brakefield and Baker get lots of minutes against BC. If we lose, we lose. But we should have a long view of this tournament -- winning one game and only one game does nothing for us other than avoid a losing season. Resting our guys gives us at least a somewhat better shot at what our goal actually is.

  6. #346
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    Amen to that. I know K will never do it, but I'd like to see guys like Coleman and Brakefield and Baker get lots of minutes against BC. If we lose, we lose. But we should have a long view of this tournament -- winning one game and only one game does nothing for us other than avoid a losing season. Resting our guys gives us at least a somewhat better shot at what our goal actually is.
    But... as you say earlier, "if we lose, we lose". Then if we actually lose, what's the point of "resting our guys"...

  7. #347
    Quote Originally Posted by gep View Post
    But... as you say earlier, "if we lose, we lose". Then if we actually lose, what's the point of "resting our guys"...
    There may be more agreement than disagreement on K’s likely approach to employing depth against BC. It can’t be very controversial to say that K surely plans to play 9-10 guys in the first half. Nor to say that he’ll change that plan if BC leads by 8 or 10 midway through the first half. He hopes to have a laugher by the under-8 timeout in the second half, so he can rest especially Hurt and Williams, but Moore and Steward, too. Heck, Goldwire and Roach, too, for that matter. K would like to use Buckmire at PG for the final 3 minutes. Or Buckmire and Savarino as backcourt mates at the under-4.

    My view — in which over the years I have not been alone — is that K leaves key players in too long toward the end of games when, say, Duke is up by 16 with 2:20 to go. It’s one thing to counter that view with the argument that these are young people who can easily recover for a game 3 days later. But it’s another to say Duke will have no worries about tired legs in this ACCT.

    So my original point a few posts back was that K goes into this daunting task planning/needing/hoping to beat BC without using his top 6 for 30+ minutes each. I’ll be surprised if K doesn’t sub liberally in the first half, and in the second half as well if possible.

    That won’t be possible if nothing-to-lose BC plays the way it did 2 weeks ago against ND: 4 players in double figures, 47% from 3, and only 5 turnovers.

    I do expect some zone against BC, both to “change things up” to throw BC off a little, but also to give the players some experience with zone “principles,” as using a zone may be important for possible games with UL and FSU.

    The larger point in my depth and defense discussion is that the specific set of major problems Duke faces this week mitigates against a straightforward one-game-at-a-time approach. Especially for this first matchup, I doubt that K and staff are game-planning for BC in the strictest sense of the usual, regular season manner.

    But I acknowledge the obvious: I could be 100% wrong. Maybe because Duke has played UL twice, and recently, not only will he not have mentioned the Cardinals even once on Sunday-Monday, but he’s got the players totally focused on BC, and he’ll be ready to re-focus himself, the staff, and the team on UL beginning afresh Tuesday eve. Further, the way he’s game-planned for BC has absolutely nothing to do with UL or FSU.

  8. #348
    Join Date
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    Dur'm
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    Amen to that. I know K will never do it, but I'd like to see guys like Coleman and Brakefield and Baker get lots of minutes against BC. If we lose, we lose. But we should have a long view of this tournament -- winning one game and only one game does nothing for us other than avoid a losing season. Resting our guys gives us at least a somewhat better shot at what our goal actually is.
    I don't know that he'd say it out loud, but I'm guessing that actually means something to K. I'm guessing he is quite sincere about "taking it one game at a time" and will not play a long rotation unless and until the game gets unbalanced one way or the other.

  9. #349
    We just have to win as many games consecutively as we have won total all year so far, and we'll get #6!

  10. #350
    Quote Originally Posted by gep View Post
    But... as you say earlier, "if we lose, we lose". Then if we actually lose, what's the point of "resting our guys"...
    For some reason I got a flashback to Rocky 4 when I read that. “If he dies, he dies.” Hope that isn’t a harbinger!

  11. #351
    Quote Originally Posted by Duke79UNLV77 View Post
    We just have to win as many games consecutively as we have won total all year so far, and we'll get #6!
    In what kind of alternate reality are you seeing this Duke team winning the national championship this season?

  12. #352
    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    In what kind of alternate reality are you seeing this Duke team winning the national championship this season?
    I took it as more of a “wink” comment than something serious.

  13. #353
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    I took it as more of a “wink” comment than something serious.
    Of course Duke79 was knowingly making a farcical comment. Duke winning the National Championship this season is even less likely than the New Orleans Pelicans winning the NBA Championship. In fact, Duke is going to have a very difficult time just beating Louisville in the second round of the ACC Tournament.

  14. #354
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is offline Moderator, Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Imagine the following with me, if you will:
    -Duke makes it to the ACC title game, beating Louisville, Florida State and (in all likelihood) another NET Top 50 team in the semis.
    -NC State beats Syracuse today, likely cementing a spot in the NET Top 75.
    -Notre Dame beats UNC tonight, which could vault them into the NET Top 75.

    Were this all to happen, Duke could enter Saturday night with 6 Q1 wins, and one less Q3 loss (via Notre Dame's ascension). Every team with 6+ Q1 wins are in the NET Top 30 and safely in the tournament field.

    Would that put us into the tournament without winning the ACCT? Probably not. But, would it put us in the reasonable conversation, where some odd decision from the committee might allow us to squeak in? I'd argue yes.

    Just a reminder that there's still a lot to root for and play for...
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  15. #355
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    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Imagine the following with me, if you will:
    -Duke makes it to the ACC title game, beating Louisville, Florida State and (in all likelihood) another NET Top 50 team in the semis.
    -NC State beats Syracuse today, likely cementing a spot in the NET Top 75.
    -Notre Dame beats UNC tonight, which could vault them into the NET Top 75.

    Were this all to happen, Duke could enter Saturday night with 6 Q1 wins, and one less Q3 loss (via Notre Dame's ascension). Every team with 6+ Q1 wins are in the NET Top 30 and safely in the tournament field.

    Would that put us into the tournament without winning the ACCT? Probably not. But, would it put us in the reasonable conversation, where some odd decision from the committee might allow us to squeak in? I'd argue yes.

    Just a reminder that there's still a lot to root for and play for...
    If we get to the ACC title game, it makes more sense to just win it. Honestly, our chances of winning in that game (given that we get there) would be better than the chances we'd get an at-large bid if we lost in the title game.

  16. #356
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is offline Moderator, Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    If we get to the ACC title game, it makes more sense to just win it. Honestly, our chances of winning in that game (given that we get there) would be better than the chances we'd get an at-large bid if we lost in the title game.
    100% agree... obviously the idea is to win the whole thing And if we were to make it that far we'd have to be playing great basketball, so I would feel like we had a >50% shot at beating whoever we play, and our at-large chances would certainly be <50%.
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  17. #357
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    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Imagine the following with me, if you will:
    -Duke makes it to the ACC title game, beating Louisville, Florida State and (in all likelihood) another NET Top 50 team in the semis.
    -NC State beats Syracuse today, likely cementing a spot in the NET Top 75.
    -Notre Dame beats UNC tonight, which could vault them into the NET Top 75.

    Were this all to happen, Duke could enter Saturday night with 6 Q1 wins, and one less Q3 loss (via Notre Dame's ascension). Every team with 6+ Q1 wins are in the NET Top 30 and safely in the tournament field.

    Would that put us into the tournament without winning the ACCT? Probably not. But, would it put us in the reasonable conversation, where some odd decision from the committee might allow us to squeak in? I'd argue yes.

    Just a reminder that there's still a lot to root for and play for...
    You had me at rooting for State and against Carolina.

    Even under the field reduction, won't the NIT still be seeded? So even if we don't make it to the NCAAT, the above scenario puts us around the top of the NIT field. And if we're inNIT, I want to winNIT.

  18. #358
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Imagine the following with me, if you will:
    -Duke makes it to the ACC title game, beating Louisville, Florida State and (in all likelihood) another NET Top 50 team in the semis.
    -NC State beats Syracuse today, likely cementing a spot in the NET Top 75.
    -Notre Dame beats UNC tonight, which could vault them into the NET Top 75.

    Were this all to happen, Duke could enter Saturday night with 6 Q1 wins, and one less Q3 loss (via Notre Dame's ascension). Every team with 6+ Q1 wins are in the NET Top 30 and safely in the tournament field.

    Would that put us into the tournament without winning the ACCT? Probably not. But, would it put us in the reasonable conversation, where some odd decision from the committee might allow us to squeak in? I'd argue yes.

    Just a reminder that there's still a lot to root for and play for...
    I think we would deserve to be in if we make it to the finals. The only thing that wouldn't look like a tournament team would be our 15-12 record, but that would likely by 19-13 without our cancelled games. As much as winning easy games wouldn't have helped us, not playing them shouldn't hurt us.

  19. #359
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    Quote Originally Posted by Duke79UNLV77 View Post
    I think we would deserve to be in if we make it to the finals. The only thing that wouldn't look like a tournament team would be our 15-12 record, but that would likely by 19-13 without our cancelled games. As much as winning easy games wouldn't have helped us, not playing them shouldn't hurt us.
    I continue not to understand why people think 15-12 would be disqualifying by itself. As I mentioned elsewhere, teams regularly make the tournament with .500 records. That doesn't mean that other factors (quality of wins/losses) wouldn't take us out of consideration, because obviously there are also a lot of teams over .500 who get left out every year, but the record itself isn't a problem.

  20. #360
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is offline Moderator, Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Quote Originally Posted by Duke79UNLV77 View Post
    I think we would deserve to be in if we make it to the finals. The only thing that wouldn't look like a tournament team would be our 15-12 record, but that would likely by 19-13 without our cancelled games. As much as winning easy games wouldn't have helped us, not playing them shouldn't hurt us.
    You bring up a great point... if we put ourselves in the position to be on the bubble, how will our lack of non-conference games, specifically easy wins, be viewed by the committee? That's just one reason I think there could be MANY surprises on Selection Sunday... there is quite simply no precedent for how to judge teams with such divergent schedules. Just another reason why I think it's silly to think we can only make the tourney by winning the whole ACCT, even though that is the most likely scenario... but crazier things have happened, and this is the craziest of all years!
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