This Week in the ACC 2/15 - 2/21

[JasonEvans]

I am sure pfr will chime in with his outstanding weekly list of all the games, but I had to find someplace to drop this nugget and this feels like the right spot...

https://twitter.com/UNC_Basketball/s...44049840599050

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[CameronDuke]

Surprised to see UVa +1 at FSU tonight.

UVa is rolling right now. FSU will be a formidable opponent but I think UVa takes this one tonight.

[CDu]

Surprised to see UVa +1 at FSU tonight.

UVa is rolling right now. FSU will be a formidable opponent but I think UVa takes this one tonight.

To be fair, UVa hasn't played anyone very good in a while. They had some "meh" performances against NC State, Pitt, and Ga Tech (twice) and Va Tech recently. They have been winning, but most of their recent performances haven't been what I would call "rolling".

FSU is better than anyone UVa has faced since Gonzaga, and would be at home. I think it's a reasonable line. The one caveat is that FSU has missed some games recently and has a fairly high variance for a team with their level of talent. So I could quite easily see UVa win (as one would expect given the close line, but even moreso given FSU's variability).

[sagegrouse]

To be fair, UVa hasn't played anyone very good in a while. They had some "meh" performances against NC State, Pitt, and Ga Tech (twice) and Va Tech recently. They have been winning, but most of their recent performances haven't been what I would call "rolling".

FSU is better than anyone UVa has faced since Gonzaga, and would be at home. I think it's a reasonable line. The one caveat is that FSU has missed some games recently and has a fairly high variance for a team with their level of talent. So I could quite easily see UVa win (as one would expect given the close line, but even moreso given FSU's variability).

There are three possible outcomes -- Hoos, Noles and the DNPs.

[pfrduke]

This week kicks off with what should be the marquee regular season game for the conference this year, although due to games played FSU would still be a game-and-a-half back of UVA with a win, even though they'd be tied in the loss column.

Monday
[20]Florida State (7-2) (+1) hosts [9]Virginia (11-1) (7:00, ESPN)

Tuesday
[43]North Carolina (7-5) hosts [32]Virginia Tech (8-3) (POSTPONED) - hence the post above with UNC trolling for games

Wednesday
[58]Georgia Tech (6-6) (-9) hosts [113]Boston College (1-9) (12:00, ACCN)
[75]Pittsburgh (5-6) (-3) hosts [81]NC State (4-8) (4:30, ACCN)
[31]Louisville (6-3) (-4) hosts [57]Syracuse (6-5) (6:30, ACCN)
[110]Wake Forest (3-9) (+5) hosts [34]Duke (6-6) (8:30, ACCN)
[53]Notre Dame (6-7) hosts [46]Clemson (7-5) (POSTPONED)

Thursday and Friday are dark

Saturday
[20]Florida State (7-2) (-4) hosts [32]Virginia Tech (8-3) (12:00, ACCN)
[132]Miami (3-11) (+5) hosts [58]Georgia Tech (6-6) (12:00, ACCNX)
[57]Syracuse (6-5) (-2) hosts [53]Notre Dame (6-7) (2:00, ACCN)
[110]]Wake Forest (3-9) (+1) hosts [81]NC State (4-8) (2:00, ACCNX)
[43]North Carolina (7-5) (-1) hosts [31]Louisville (6-3) (6:00, ESPN)
[34]Duke (6-6) (+2) hosts [9]Virginia (11-1) (8:00, ESPN)

Sunday
[75]Pittsburgh (5-6) (+1) hosts [46]Clemson (7-5) (6:00, ACCN)

ACC Non-Conference Record: 61-22
ACC vs. Power 6: 18-14

Conference-Only Efficiency Margin:
Virginia: +16.8
Florida State: +14.6
Louisville: +5.7
Duke: +5.2
Syracuse: +4.3
Virginia Tech: +4.2
Notre Dame: +3.1
Georgia Tech: +1.2
North Carolina: +0.0
Pittsburgh: -0.7
Clemson: -6.7
NC State: -7.1
Wake Forest: -9.2
Boston College: -11.7
Miami: -12.1

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I am sure pfr will chime in with his outstanding weekly list of all the games, but I had to find someplace to drop this nugget and this feels like the right spot...

https://twitter.com/UNC_Basketball/s...44049840599050

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Gosh, it would be a shame if UNC were still squarely on the bubble when we play them next...
Hrmm...

[gumbomoop]

Crazy season in truly unsettling times. Life, if very much disturbed, goes on. Including, possibly, the ACCT. Don’t want to start an ACCT thread yet, but I am interested in scenarios for Duke.

Although of course I “hope” Duke lands in top 4 of ACC, I don’t expect that. I suppose going 5-1 rest of regular season would get the double bye, but our remaining schedule is tough. (If this sounds too pessimistic, just ignore the rest of this post, which will strike you as Double Debbie Downer.)

I’m looking at our prospects for the 5-9 seeds, the first-day bye. UVa won’t fall below 2. FSU and VT probably no lower than 4. UL has tough remaining schedule, but even if they go 2-4, they can probably get 6-seed. Clemson has easy schedule left, might well get to 10-6 and 3-4 seed. Heels have tough schedule, but should get to 10-7 and 4-6 seed. We could hurt them on the last day in CH. Hope so. Top 6 seem to be UVa, FSU, VT, UL, Clemson, UNC. GT and Pitt have relatively easy schedules remaining. GT could get to 10-8, maybe 6-seed. Syracuse and Duke have tough schedules.

Bottom 4 (12-15 ACCT seeds) likely to be BC, Miami, Wake, NCSt. With our schedule, we could wind up anywhere from 5-11-seed. I’d love to sneak into a 4-seed, would be pleasantly surprised with 5-6, but expect to be in a fight for 7-9 with GT, Syracuse, Pitt, and ND. A losing record likely means 10-11-seed and playing on ACCT Tuesday.

Losses @Miami and home to ND hurt badly. Every game left is big. Biggest (for ACCT seed) seem to be @GT and in Cameron v. Syracuse. Loss in either of those games is a double loss re ACCT 7-9 seed. Of course a loss @ Wake would be a crusher, too.

Too pessimistic? Too early? Too many uncertainties?

[Bob Green]

Too pessimistic? Too early? Too many uncertainties?

I’ll go with too early. I desire to see see how the team looks against Wake Wednesday and Virginia Saturday, at a minimum, before looking ahead to the ACCT.

[CDu]

I’ll go with too early. I desire to see see how the team looks against Wake Wednesday and Virginia Saturday, at a minimum, before looking ahead to the ACCT.

Yeah, I agree. Way too wide a variance right now. We could go anywhere from 6-0 and 1-5 and I wouldn't be shocked by either outcome. Even after this week, it'll probably be really hard to figure out where we are headed. But we're definitely not in position to guesstimate now.

[Bob Green]

Florida State looking strong against Virginia in the early minutes of the game.

[Bob Green]

At the under eight minutes timeout, Florida State is up 28 - 11. Virginia needs to figure something out quickly before this one gets out of hand.

[Wahoo2000]

Florida State looking strong against Virginia in the early minutes of the game.

I wish I could say I didn't see this coming. For the past couple of weeks, UVA has done only one thing really well - shoot the ball. If we play a physically superior team who applies a lot of pressure and chases us off the 3pt line, we're gonna struggle. This one might get WAY out of control.

[CameronDuke]

This is an old fashioned butt kicking down in Tallahassee right now. FSU is embarrassing UVa. I mean if this was a boxing match the ref would have to call this one off and stop the fight ...

[devildeac]

This is an old fashioned butt kicking down in Tallahassee right now. FSU is embarrassing UVa. I mean if this was a boxing match the ref would have to call this one off and stop the fight ...

UVA/F$U? Boxing match? More of a rugby scrum.

[Bob Green]

Halftime: Florida State 45, Virginia 25

Seminoles physical dominating on defense creating turnovers and converting them into points.

[CameronDuke]

UVA/F$U? Boxing match? More of a rugby scrum.

Definitely a rugby scrum.

[CameronDuke]

Don’t look now but UVa won the first 4 minute segment of the 2nd half by 8.

12 point game in Tallahassee. Lot of time left. Clark is attacking the rim in waves fir UVa and either finishing or kicking it out for wide open 3s when the FSU defense collapses.

[CameronDuke]

FSU up 58-43 at the under 12 media timeout. They have created a bit more separation again.

[JasonEvans]

With 5 minutes to go, Virginia has 51 points... enough to win in many of their snail paced games... but FSU has 70.

I'm kinda glad we don't get FSU this year.

[Wahoo2000]

With 5 minutes to go, Virginia has 51 points... enough to win in many of their snail paced games... but FSU has 70.

I'm kinda glad we don't get FSU this year.

When they play a complete game and are mentally focused, they are as good as anyone besides maybe Zags/Baylor. (To be fair, I believe that about Virginia and a bunch of other teams too)

They made us look soft/weak/uncompetitive tonight (aside from Clark). Not sure Virginia has many of those guys with the killer instinct this year. Talented players sure, but none (again excepting Clark) with that elite fire/will to compete.