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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Westport, CT
    I love THIS team.

    I am behind them 100%, whatever happens.

  2. #42
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    I moved. Now 12 miles from Heaven, 13 from Hell
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    I see a pattern.

    vs Winthrop (W 83-70)
    vs Wofford (W 86-57)
    vs Wake Forest (W 84-60)

    Looking forward to a 2021 NCAA Tournament path of (12) Western Kentucky, (13) Wright State, (16) Wagner, (11) Wichita State, (5) Wisconsin, and (3) West Virginia. Lots of potential Ws there.
    Let’s see how he does against the Wahoos.

  3. #43
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    Feb 2007
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    Greenville, SC
    Quote Originally Posted by DU82 View Post
    Let’s see how he does against the Wahoos.
    I* see what you did there.

    And I like it.




    *Everyone

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    A really nice win. One of our best performances of the season and it is ~5 points better in adjusted efficiency margin than the best in the country. The defense was stifling in the first half, a bit sloppy in the second half. But the offense was spectacular. We shot well, rebounded solidly, and didn’t turn it over at all. That is how you get an elite offense. Defensively, we got a bit lucky that Wake missed a bunch of open 3s, which probably cost them 5-6 points. We also didn’t turn them over, but we did well on the defensive glass. Good enough when you have an elite offense.

    With that performance, we moved into the top-30 in KenPom and the top-40 in Torvik. Our NET ranking will probably be high-50s/low-60s when it gets updated today. Progress. If only we had weeks out a couple of those close losses, we wouldn’t be sweating the NCAAs so much. With those KenPom and Torvik numbers, 11-6 and 9-4 looks so much better than 9-8 and 6-6. Alas...

    Our offense has been over performing some obviously as Hurt is shooting better than he should be shooting. But even at a normal efficiency we would still be good. In the meantime, it is fun seeing him make every FGA he takes. About those FTs though...

    Another strong performance overall from Williams, although he did have a rough first few minutes of the second half as Okpomo feasted on him for 3 or 4 possessions. Still, he is establishing himself as a consistent presence and that is great.

    Brakefield played really well off the bench. He stands to benefit from the opportunity left by Hohnson as he gets more regular minutes. His style of play works well off either Williams or Hurt, as he has a fair amount of versatility and no shortage of confidence.

    Steward was again terrific. He is really finding his way now.

    Goldwire did Goldwire things as usual.

    Baker was that knockdown shooter we hoped he would be, and did a good job of avoiding turnovers.

    The only negatives were Moore turning back into a turnover machine, Hurt missing his FTs, and Roach having a very quiet night. But in aggregate it was a great performance. We curbstomped a team on the road and exceeded our expected margin by about 20 points.

    This weekend will be a different test, both in terms of quality and style. It will be especially tough for our young bigs. Hopefully we are up for the challenge, as a win would put us firmly back in the NCAAs discussion.

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
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    Cary, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I don't know why we've played so slow the past couple games, but we seem to play good offense when we do, so I'm not concerned.
    I’d suppose the 20 point leads have something to do with us slowing down the pace.

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Suddenly, we're a juggernaut. Great O, decent D.

    OFFENSE

    Possessions: 61.4 (2nd straight weirdly slow game; neither Duke nor Wake normally plays anywhere close to this tempo (same thing that happened against State; Duke has an average adjusted pace of 68.7 and Wake an average adjusted pace of 67.3); that said, normally we play good offense at slow pace and once again it proved true)
    oRtg: 1.37 (1.39 adjusted; our best offensive performance of the season; the equivalent of the #1 offense in the country, more than 12 points per 100 possessions better than the actual #1 offense)
    eFG%: 63.1% (excellent; our 2nd-best eFG of the season, and fourth straight game over 59%)
    3pt%: 44.0% (fabulous, fourth straight game at or over 44%)
    2pt%: 61.1% (outstanding, 3rd best 2pt% of the season)
    %threes: 41.0% (too high, but when you're a stellar 3pt shooting team like Duke, you might as well fire away )
    FT rate: 21.3% (weak)
    OR%: 35.5% (good)
    TO%: 9.8% (spectacular; our best offensive TO% of the season, by a LOT)
    a/to: 2.83:1 (ditto)
    %assisted: 51.5% (the tv guys made a point about how impressive this was, but it's only our median performance (8 games higher, 8 games lower)
    fast break pts: 5 (6.0% of points; somewhat anemic)

    DEFENSE

    dRtg: 0.98 (0.95 adjusted; pretty good for us, only decent for a good defensive team; the equivalent of the #48 defense in the country)
    eFG%: 46.1% (very good; our 3rd-best opposing eFG% of the season)
    3pt%: 28.0% (fab; Wake is a pretty good shooting team, and we held them down)
    2pt%: 50.0% (fair, I'd rather be under 50%, but we've only achieved that four times this season)
    %threes: 49.0% (2nd-highest such number of the season; at this high rate, if they'd hit their long shots, this game would have been a lot closer)
    FT rate: 35.3% (back to not-so-good)
    DR%: 76.5% (after being under 70% in three of our last four games, we topped 75% in this one for the 9th time this season)
    TO%: 14.7% (blech; 4th-worst defensive TO% performance of the season)
    a/to: 0.89:1 (we didn't turn them over, but they didn't get many assists, either)
    %assisted: 40.0%
    stl%: 8.1% (feh; our 3rd-worst steal rate of the season)
    blk%: 7.8% (15.4% of 2pt shots) (the overall number is misleading since they took so many threes; pct of blocked 2pt shots is 4th best of the season)
    fast break pts: 7 (11.7% of points; could be worse, could be better)


    I don't know why we've played so slow the past couple games
    , but we seem to play good offense when we do, so I'm not concerned. This was a fairly astonishing offensive performance, almost 1.4 adjusted ppp. Defense was fabulous in the first half (0.82; 0.79 adjusted; the equivalent of by far the best D in the nation), and disappointing in the 2nd half (1.15; 1.12 adjusted; equivalent of #344). Not sure if the letdown was in part due to Mark Williams only playing 7 second-half minutes (after 12 first-half minutes), but it's possible. Eye test says it's easier for opponents to score when he's not in there.
    Thanks again as always for the stats!

    On the bolded portion, without going back and checking all the post game threads*, it seemed like recently the team has done a better job of limiting live ball turnovers (I know this is a personal favorite of yours) and fast break opportunities, while also generating fewer of them ourselves. As a result, there are fewer short possessions, and therefore fewer overall. Possible?

    *How do I start a petition to have a sticky thread that just contains your post game stats posts? Or a google sheet or something. Seeing the data each game is great, and it would be awesome to look at season long trends and results. Mods? Anyone? Bueller?

  7. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by heyman25 View Post
    Much better announcers. Roach 2 points 1 assist. Now that is not a stat for a star point guard. Otherwise great team performance. Do not let Moore be a playmaker. UVA will shut our offense down. If we only have 6 turnovers in Charlottesville we could get a W.
    I've been conducting this train for a while. He did have several drives to the rim that went well, but his "PG" style moments were not good, per usual.

    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    I see a pattern.
    vs Winthrop (W 83-70)
    vs Wofford (W 86-57)
    vs Wake Forest (W 84-60)
    Looking forward to a 2021 NCAA Tournament path of (12) Western Kentucky, (13) Wright State, (16) Wagner, (11) Wichita State, (5) Wisconsin, and (3) West Virginia. Lots of potential Ws there.
    nice. I too look forward to the Ws...

  8. #48
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Thought I'd comment on last nights game before the power goes out from this ice storm here in W/S. Reverse jinx

    Lot's of good things to talk about for the 2nd straight game. A great team effort with some strong individual play as well.1) Matthew Hurt looked so comfortable playing the game. It seems the coaches have installed an offense that uses the best offensive player for Duke. 2) The defense was very good, especially in the first half. It looked like at the beginning of the 2nd half, we took some early threes that we missed and that might have affected our defense. But still the D was very good. I believe it was in Mr. Sumner's front page article that Coach K said they have changed the way the team handles ball screens. What ever it looks better and the results so far have been outstanding. 3) DJ Steward has improved so much over the season. He's now a complete player. He had 16 points, 3 assists, zero turnovers, 7 rebounds, 4 offensive rebounds and 2 steals. In his last 2 games he's had 6 assists and only 1 turnover. Good comeback from the ND game where he had 4 turnovers. 4) Mark Williams into the starting lineup his really helped Matthew and his defense along with the way we're handling ball screens are the two biggest factors in our improved defense. 5) Baker seemed so confident last night and I think it's because he wasn't looking over his shoulder to see if the whistle signaled that he was coming out of the game because of a mistake. 6)The same goes for Brakefield. Maybe he can get back to being the same player who looked so good earlier in the season.
    I'm looking forward to seeing the same type game against the Hoos.

    GoDuke!

  9. #49
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Cincinnati, Ohio
    Also among the small and large improvements seen in this game, Matthew managed to play 31 minutes and commit only two fouls. Certainly helps his scoring potential if he can stay off the bench a little longer.

  10. #50
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Marietta, Georgia
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    But still the D was very good. I believe it was in Mr. Sumner's front page article that Coach K said they have changed the way the team handles ball screens. What ever it looks better and the results so far have been outstanding.

    GoDuke!
    I previously commented that I thought we got killed by the high ball screen by Miami. I said that Williams was consistently getting beat. Imagine my shock that the GOAT changed up the defense and Wake was not able to drive off these screens. If we can avoid the UVA bigs pulling him outside I think we are in good shape.

  11. #51
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Daddylawman View Post
    I previously commented that I thought we got killed by the high ball screen by Miami. I said that Williams was consistently getting beat. Imagine my shock that the GOAT changed up the defense and Wake was not able to drive off these screens. If we can avoid the UVA bigs pulling him outside I think we are in good shape.
    Yeah, I hinted at this in my earlier response, but the bolded is going to be a big question against UVa. The last two matchups have been convenient for Williams (and our bigs in general) in that State and Wake don't have bigs that are perimeter threats. Well, Wake has some guys off the bench who can shoot 3s, but their primary centers are very tethered to the post. That plays right to Williams' strengths.

    UVa is totally different. Both of their bigs are big-time perimeter threats. Their center (Huff) shoots 45% from 3, and their PF (Hauser) shoots 44% from 3. So our bigs are going to have to contest out to the 3pt line if we're going to succeed defensively. We simply can't let Huff and Hauser get open look after open look.

    The plus side is that neither Hauser or nor Huff is dynamic with the ball in hand, so defending the perimeter shouldn't be as bad a task. And Clark is the primary threat off the dribble, and he's tiny. Morsell and Beekman can drive a little, too, but to this point they haven't been terribly effective in a half-court game.

    So it might be okay, although it will be a very different type of matchup than we've faced the past few games. So it will be a good test for the versatility of our defense (and Williams in particular).

  12. #52
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is online now Moderator, Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Happy to see all the (virtual) smiling faces in this thread this morning!

    I'll reiterate a couple of points:
    1) The defensive effort was outstanding, obviously. While a lot of that was on the perimeter, don't underestimate the impact of having Mark Williams down low on the guards' confidence to play aggressive defense, especially when it comes to staying tight on shooters.
    2) The effort on the "little things" was also a huge improvement. The most noticeable for me was Jaemyn, who in the first half put together a handful of TEXTBOOK box-outs in scenarios where a coasting team could've easily just gone up casually for the board. Those are the types of efforts we associate with Duke that some thought were missing earlier this year.
    3) The offense just "flowed" better yesterday. Maybe it's having a more traditional lineup with Matt at the 4 (combined with the fact that Mark is a much more polished post player than we give him credit for... he's no Vernon Carey or Hunter Dickinson, but he's way better than your average freshman 7-footer), maybe its having JG come in off the bench... or maybe the team was focusing too much on highlighting Jalen offensively in lieu of an overall offensive game plan. I think the answer to that will become clearer down the stretch.

    Right now count me among the cautiously optimistic club. IF we can beat Virginia Saturday the outlook on this season shifts dramatically. The team that played last night can beat Virginia (certainly the poor Virginia squad that got whooped by FSU). But we all know we've had trouble fielding the same effort from game to game this year, so let's not get cocky
    Scott Rich on the front page

    Trinity BS 2012; University of Michigan PhD 2018
    Duke Chronicle, Sports Online Editor: 2010-2012
    K-Ville Blue Tenting 2009-2012

    Unofficial Brian Zoubek Biographer
    If you have questions about Michigan Basketball/Football, I'm your man!

  13. #53
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is online now Moderator, Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Yeah, I hinted at this in my earlier response, but the bolded is going to be a big question against UVa. The last two matchups have been convenient for Williams (and our bigs in general) in that State and Wake don't have bigs that are perimeter threats. Well, Wake has some guys off the bench who can shoot 3s, but their primary centers are very tethered to the post. That plays right to Williams' strengths.

    UVa is totally different. Both of their bigs are big-time perimeter threats. Their center (Huff) shoots 45% from 3, and their PF (Hauser) shoots 44% from 3. So our bigs are going to have to contest out to the 3pt line if we're going to succeed defensively. We simply can't let Huff and Hauser get open look after open look.

    The plus side is that neither Hauser or nor Huff is dynamic with the ball in hand, so defending the perimeter shouldn't be as bad a task. And Clark is the primary threat off the dribble, and he's tiny. Morsell and Beekman can drive a little, too, but to this point they haven't been terribly effective in a half-court game.

    So it might be okay, although it will be a very different type of matchup than we've faced the past few games. So it will be a good test for the versatility of our defense (and Williams in particular).
    I was thinking about this too, and I think the bolded portion or your post (emphasis mine) is the key. If all Huff is going to do on the perimeter is shoot 3s, I think Mark can use his length to challenge those. Obviously it's a loss to not have him at the rim, but since I doubt Huff will be blowing by Mark on a dribble-drive I think that mismatch isn't as monumental as some might think.

    I think something we might see in this game is a lot more of JG to guard Kihei Clark. If Huff draws Mark away from the rim, Clark will try to penetrate and draw him back down to get Huff open 3s. JGs defensive ability and size advantage on Clark could make it so we can leave that a 1-on-1 matchup (this is along the lines of what FSU did on Monday). Heck, we could even task Wendell with doing something similar in spurts. If we can force Clark to try to score over bigger defenders 1 on 1, rather than allowing him to facilitate open looks to the bigs, we mitigate the mismatchs that Huff and Hauser generate.
    Scott Rich on the front page

    Trinity BS 2012; University of Michigan PhD 2018
    Duke Chronicle, Sports Online Editor: 2010-2012
    K-Ville Blue Tenting 2009-2012

    Unofficial Brian Zoubek Biographer
    If you have questions about Michigan Basketball/Football, I'm your man!

  14. #54
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    Nov 2009
    Duke is becoming a pretty good three point shooting team right before our eyes.

    For the season, Duke is now 142-398 from 3-point range which is good for 35.7%.

    Matthew Hurt is now 40-88 from 3 which is good for a blistering 45.5%!

  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    Duke is becoming a pretty good three point shooting team right before our eyes.

    For the season, Duke is now 142-398 from 3-point range which is good for 35.7%.

    Matthew Hurt is now 40-88 from 3 which is good for a blistering 45.5%!
    This is just awesome. We're finally seeing Duke be a good 3pt shooting team after a few years of mediocrity from deep.

    The one thing that is very strange about Hurt is his FT shooting. For someone who shoots 46% from 3 and 63% from 2, how are you shooting less than 70% from the FT line? And why is Coach K asking Hurt to shoot 4 uncontested FTs? Weren't Moore and/or Steward on the floor?
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  16. #56
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    Nov 2009
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    This is just awesome. We're finally seeing Duke be a good 3pt shooting team after a few years of mediocrity from deep.

    The one thing that is very strange about Hurt is his FT shooting. For someone who shoots 46% from 3 and 63% from 2, how are you shooting less than 70% from the FT line? And why is Coach K asking Hurt to shoot 4 uncontested FTs? Weren't Moore and/or Steward on the floor?
    Yes that is strange for me too. His shot looks great from the line, a few just rim out at times.

    I can’t remember who was on the floor at the time of the 4 uncontested free throws for Duke but I would have liked Steward shooting them if he were out there. He is shooting 85.7% from the line this year!

    I know some have said Hurt likely will enter the NBA draft after this season but could you imagine him as a junior next year at Duke playing the 4 with Williams at the 5? Man that would be a front court!

  17. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    Yes that is strange for me too. His shot looks great from the line, a few just rim out at times.

    I can’t remember who was in the floor at the time of the 4 uncontested free throws for Duke but he’s I would have liked Steward shooting them if he were out there. He is shooting 85.7% from the line this year!

    I know some have said Hurt likely will enter the NBA draft after this season but could you imagine him as a junior next year at Duke playing the 4 with Williams at the 5? Man that would be a front court!
    Banchero would probably pull a Jalen if that happens...
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  18. #58
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    Nov 2009
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Banchero would probably pull a Jalen if that happens...
    Yeah, probably. I want to see Banchero dominate in a Duke uniform but Hurt may be my favorite Duke offensive player since Zion! He is developing such an array of offensive skills, and starting to use his body to post up and score from the inside too. And that outside shot is so pure.

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daddylawman View Post
    I previously commented that I thought we got killed by the high ball screen by Miami. I said that Williams was consistently getting beat. Imagine my shock that the GOAT changed up the defense and Wake was not able to drive off these screens. If we can avoid the UVA bigs pulling him outside I think we are in good shape.
    K said he changed the way we defend the high ball screen. The results were obvious, but I really didn’t see the change watching live. Can someone please explain what we did differently?

  20. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    I’d suppose the 20 point leads have something to do with us slowing down the pace.
    That's possible, but we only have a three game sample of such games, so it's difficult to tell for sure.

    I don't think this has been true in past seasons, however. Even when Duke plays slowdown with a big lead, the opponent has lots of incentive to be super-fast.

    Quote Originally Posted by mkirsh View Post
    On the bolded portion, without going back and checking all the post game threads*, it seemed like recently the team has done a better job of limiting live ball turnovers (I know this is a personal favorite of yours) and fast break opportunities, while also generating fewer of them ourselves. As a result, there are fewer short possessions, and therefore fewer overall. Possible?
    It's possible, but your scenario only really applies to the Wake game (maybe the two Notre Dame games as well). Against State, we forced tons of turnovers (TO%=29.8%, best of the season) and coughed it up quite a bit ourselves (21.2%, 4th-worst of the season). Against Clemson, we protected the ball but forced a fair amount of TOs (20.0%). Against Wake the first time (1.23 adjusted oRating, 64.9 pace), both teams turned it over a lot (21.6% for us, 23.1% for them). So I think there must be another explanation.

    Quote Originally Posted by szstark View Post
    K said he changed the way we defend the high ball screen. The results were obvious, but I really didn’t see the change watching live. Can someone please explain what we did differently?
    I wasn't really focusing on this during the game (so I could be wrong), but it looked to me like Mark went into drop coverage on the screen and the screened player fought over the screen to try to stay on the ballhandler.
    Last edited by Kedsy; 02-18-2021 at 11:08 AM.

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