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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    MBB: Duke at Wake Forest (Wed, 2/17, 8:30 pm, ACCN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

    Important game to win for this team to build off of last weekend's comfortable road win. Can we make it two in a row ahead of UVa this weekend? Discuss.

  2. #2
    This game SCARES me. Same as I said before Miami. Wake is underrated. They should’ve beaten FSU (yes the FSU who clobbered UVA)

    They are playing better at Wake and could easily beat us. And sometimes they can really hit the three - we better be on that !
       

  3. #3
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    Feb 2007
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    NC

    Scouting Report

    This is a must-win for our at-large chances, and is the weakest opponent we have left on the schedule. If the team has any hope of an at-large bid, we can't give this one away.

    Wake has been one of the worst teams in the ACC. They are a team we beat somewhat comfortably already this year. Neither of those statements should preclude us from losing (see @Miami and vs Notre Dame), but it gives some perspective. In terms of talent, there is no comparison. We are way better. But talent isn't always enough. To add to this, they are playing a bit better recently now that they got back one of their stars. Hopefully our guys bring it tomorrow night.

    Wake's offense has been pretty bad for an ACC team, but they do one thing pretty well: shoot 3s. Seven players shoot it 34% or better, and as a team they shoot it at 36.3%. They also shoot 3s at a high volume, which makes their percentage made even more impressive. There really isn't anything else the offense does even okay, which explains their low-quality offense overall. They turn it over too much, shoot 2s really poorly and get blocked a lot, and don't do anything else above average. Defensively, they prevent offensive rebounds and that's about it. They don't force turnovers, they don't defend shots well, the REALLY don't block shots. In aggregate, it's an average to below average offense (hard to assess here as one of their best players has played so little) and a below average defense for a major conference team. But again, they are playing a bit better recently, so shouldn't be taken lightly (especially not by this Duke team).

    Centers: Ody Oguama (6'9", 225lb sophomore from Raleigh) is the starting center. Oguama is a lanky kid who does most of his work very close to the basket. He isn't a god-awful midrange shooter, but it's not a strength. Oguama has good length and is a solid rebounder (especially offensive rebounder), and was a pretty good shotblocker last year off the bench. But this year, he's been almost nonexistent as a shotblocker. Behind Oguama is Emmanual Okpomo (6'10", 225lb frosh). Okpomo is kind of a carbon copy of Oguama, and does virtually all of his work near the rim. Okpomo is the one guy who has shown a consistent shotblocking presence when in there, but he plays just about 10 minutes per game. If those two guys are out, the Deacs get fairly small as they lost their other true center Tariq Ingraham for the season to COVID.

    Forwards: The Deacs have a couple of solid options here in Isaiah Mucius (6'8", 200lb junior) and Ismail Massoud (6'8", 220lb soph). Mucius is a super long, super skinny forward who has developed his game over his 3 years. He is a really good athlete who came to Wake REALLY raw, but has developed into a solid 3pt shooter and well-rounded scoring threat for the Deacs. Mucius is most effective at the rim or on 3s. He's more of a straight-line driver than a shifty shot-creator, but he can punish closeouts and hit 3s if left open. Massoud is predominantly a catch-and-shoot stretch 4, who can really knock down 3s (38% career 3pt shooter), but struggles mightily inside the arc. He is even less of a threat off the dribble. Defensively, Mucius is still raw but has impact potential, whereas Massoud is more of a positional defender. The Deacs don't really have another option here.

    Wings: Ian DuBose (6'4", 225lb grad transfer from Houston Babtist) is the star of the team. DuBose is a high quality, high-IQ player who can score in a variety of ways. He's both good with the ball in his hands (leads team in assists per game) and as a catch-and-shoot player (43% from 3). He's a fire-hydrant of a bball player at 6'4", 225 lbs, and can bull his way to the rim despite not being overly quick or explosive. DuBose can shoot off the dribble from 3 or in the lane, can catch-and-shoot, and can shoot coming off screens. He's missed most of the season, but has been a breakout player in the win over BC and the overtime loss at FSU. DuBose has the most dynamism of anyone on the team, so guarding him effectively will be important. The other star on the wing is Daivien Williamson (6'2", 170lb junior transfer from ETSU). Like DuBose, Williamson is very capable of scoring either as a catch-and-shoot guy, a driver, or off the dribble from the perimeter. But with Williamson, it's more of a finesse game than the power that DuBose has, because Williamson is skinnier. In some ways, he reminds me of DJ Steward with long arms and a skinny frame. Both of these guys are more combo guards than true wings, even though they start on the wing. Both are pesky/handsy defensively and capable of steals, and DuBose adds some rebounding skill on defense too. Off the bench is Jonah Antonio (6'5", 170lb grad transfer from Australia via Mount St. Mary's and UNLV). Antonio is a shooting specialist. He is on the floor to take and make 3s, and he has done so at a high rate this year (43%). Antonio provides virtually no game off the dribble, but if you lose him on the 3pt line he will punish you, with range out to 25 feet. Interestingly, the Deacs have a couple of wing players sharing the names of former (sigh) ACC players coming off the bench. Jalen Johnson (6'6", 195lb grad transfer from Tennessee) is a Durham native who has length and athleticism and a decent 3pt shot. More of a wing forward than a guard like DuBose/Williamson, Johnson provides a bit more ranginess but a bit less skill when he's in the game. Isaiah Wilkins (6'4", 220lb junior transfer from Va Tech) is a bulldozer of a wing who can play physical defense on the perimeter and get some steals, but isn't the most athletic guy in the world and is mostly a below-the-rim guy. He's a willing catch-and-shoot 3pt guy, although his percentage is more like Jeremy Roach's than you'd like from such a player. Off the dribble, he's pretty much a straight-line driver who lacks the leaping ability to finish at the rim. Both of these guys play backup minutes, as Williamson and DuBose are the key guys there.

    Guards: As mentioned, DuBose and Williamson handle it a fair amount. But the Deacs are pretty excited about their latest addition in Carter Whitt (6'4", 180lb frosh). Whitt looks like he's straight out of a Poison concert, with flowing blonde hair. But he's got game. A top-70 recruit in next year's class, Whitt graduated early and joined the team this winter. Whitt has good size for a PG, and is a terrific passer and solid ballhandler along with a good 3pt shot. He's not a great athlete and is weak defensively, but he has the potential to develop into an impact player for the Deacs. Whitt is probably a little overmatched right now, as his turnover rate is too high and his FG% inside the line is too low. But in a year or two he should be a really talented playmaker for them. Behind Whitt is Jahcobi Neath (6'3", 200lb soph from Canada). Neath is a terrific athlete who can pass or shoot and can finish at the rim. His 3pt shot has struggled this year but he's much better than his 26% would suggest.

    Wake played a terrific game in a loss at FSU over the weekend, so they shouldn't be taken lightly. They have a variety of 3pt shooters, which has been a bugaboo for us this year. Hopefully we are able to defend like we did against State, because if so they are weak enough defensively that we should punish them on the other end. It's a must-win game, so let's win it.

  4. #4
    They won their last two home games - v Pitt and Miami. And took FSU o the road to OT. just sayin’ this scares me
       

  5. #5
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by gofurman View Post
    They won their last two home games - v Pitt and Miami. And took FSU o the road to OT. just sayin’ this scares me
    They also recently lost at NC State and got blown out at Notre Dame. At their best, they can certainly beat us. They have the 3pt shooting and now a few playmakers to cause trouble for defenses. At their worst, they get run off the floor by us because they are brutal defensively and 3pt reliant offensively.

    It's a game we absolutely need to take seriously. But it's a game we should win if we have any hopes of the NCAAs.

  6. #6
    Most all of them are must wins now - this one certainly.

    Can Coach K turn the JJ departure into a motivational moment? Will we see better team chemistry and team defense moving forward?
       

  7. #7
    Can Duke complete the regular season sweep? Game preview:

    https://bluedevilstop.com/duke-at-wa...-game-preview/

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    They also recently lost at NC State and got blown out at Notre Dame. At their best, they can certainly beat us. They have the 3pt shooting and now a few playmakers to cause trouble for defenses. At their worst, they get run off the floor by us because they are brutal defensively and 3pt reliant offensively.

    It's a game we absolutely need to take seriously. But it's a game we should win if we have any hopes of the NCAAs.
    We had better bring our effective defense and especially guard the 3 point line. Our scoring should be adequate if we play good defense and avoid sloppy turnovers.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saratoga2 View Post
    We had better bring our effective defense and especially guard the 3 point line. Our scoring should be adequate if we play good defense and avoid sloppy turnovers.
    Agreed. Our offense has been REALLY good lately. Adjusted offensive efficiency of over 120 in 4 of the last 5 games, and over 114 in all of the last 5 games. Basically, we've been a top-5 offense for 4 of the last 5 games and a top-20 offense in the other. Given that Wake is a bad defensive team, I'd expect us to score well against them. The question will be defense. Our defense has ranged from easily best in the country in two of the last 5 games to bottom 3 in the country in 2 of the other 3 and bottom 20 in the country in the other game.

    I'm not expecting a shutdown performance, but if we can force them into some live-ball turnovers and not let them go nuts from 3, we should stand a good chance. There is certainly the risk that we don't show up, but hopefully that doesn't happen.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Has Hurt picked up his second foul yet?

    (kidding; mostly)
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    A few things I'll be watching in this one:

    Can Mark Williams be a factor offensively against an undersized opponent? Wake doesn't have the size or the physicality to push him around on the blocks, so he should be able to get some post bucket opportunities when he's in.

    Conversely, can Williams avoid being a liability in defending away from the basket on ball screens? For some reason, State didn't really explore this aspect of Williams' game, and I think that was a mistake.

    Can Hurt stay out of foul trouble and knock down those jumpers?

    Can we spread the floor for Steward and Roach to attack off the dribble?

    Can we generate some live-ball turnovers to get some easy baskets and reduce the number of times Wake has a chance to shoot 3s?

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Mount Kisco, NY
    If Miami after Clemson was the ultimate "Lucy pulling away the football" moment of the season, then here's hoping Wake after State is not part 2. With Jalen Johnson gone and Mark Williams emerging, is the team poised to put together a little end of season run-to-respectability or will we experience the same maddening inconsistency which has been the only consistency of this bizarre season?

    I am optimistic by nature so I'll opt to hope that we can head into the Virginia game on a two game win streak.

    Questions...
    -Have we finally nailed a rotation? Roach-Steward-Moore-Hurt-Williams as starters, Goldwire and Brakefield as primary subs and Coleman and Baker as situational subs?
    -Can we avoid a defensive performance that would rank among the worst in D1?
    -I feel like Wendell Moore has been our best all around player for the past two weeks. Can he continue to provide consistent performance?
    -Can Matthew Hurt score like an All Conference player while also defending adequately and avoiding the foul trouble that screws up our rotation?
    -Can Roach and DJ both play close to their potential in the same game?
    -Will Brake play well enough on D and on the glass to match his offensive chops? Will he grab the 7th man role and not let go, fending off Coleman?

    In looking at stats made available by the ACC, Jordan Goldwire leads the conference in ATO ratio and is second in steals. Not bad for a kid headed to Eastern Kentucky a few years back.

    I think many of us feel that we are really close to putting together a run. It may not be an NCAA run, but a string of games that shows we are not the mediocre team our record suggests. To even consider it, we need to win this game tomorrow night.

  13. #13
    I agree with some of the other posts, we really need to bring it tomorrow night. We can’t let Wake get hot from three. If we keep them from doing that, I feel we can get the W. Also, Matt Hurt just cannot afford to get in foul trouble. I think this is a game we need to jump on Wake and get a good lead early, like we did at State. Hope Coach K has them ready. Let’s Go Duke!!
       

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Santa Clara, CA
    The last time Duke played Wake was the last time they were ranked. A lot's happened in a month, huh?

    To me, it all depends which Duke team show up. The team that beat Clemson, State and first ND game (and the one that was leading ND by 15 in the first half in the 2nd), or the one that shrugged its way through the Miami game, lost its intensity on defense during the last ND game, let Carolina hit 67% from 3, etc.? Staying frosty on defense is key. If they do that, and offense produces reasonably as recent games have shown, Duke wins in a rout. But if they lack/lose intensity and focus, Wake could easily win. Other than that, three things I'll watch for:

    1. How the team performs in the 1st game of the post-Johnson era. El Deano used to say that any team can get up and win a game after losing a star player. Johnson wasn't this team's star, but he might have been significant, mentally, to this team. Will Duke come out of the gates showing that they don't need him to win? Does the reportedly empty locker give them an edge?

    2. Williams, and his (hopefully) upward trajectory. He could do very well in this game wrt blocks, boards and putbacks.

    3. Hurt went for 26 in the first Wake game. Can he up that here? New career high?

    9F
    I will never talk about That Game. GTHC.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    N. Charleston, SC
    I just want this thread elevated to where we focus on the young men suiting up for the Wake Forest game. God bless you for sticking it out under terribly unfair circumstances. My focus will be on those athletes,
       

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
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    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by PDDuke85 View Post
    I just want this thread elevated to where we focus on the young men suiting up for the Wake Forest game. God bless you for sticking it out under terribly unfair circumstances. My focus will be on those athletes,
    if their play against state was any indication, they'll do fine. I find it hard to believe this wasn't a situation prior to today.
    1200. DDMF.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    if their play against state was any indication, they'll do fine. I find it hard to believe this wasn't a situation prior to today.
    I watched Wake against Fla State. State defended intensely including pressure on the guy bring the ball up. Wake still managed to shoot the 3 very well and almost knocked State off. Just a couple of missed FTs at the end made the difference in Wake's effort. We had better defend the 3 point line and use Williams to intimidate inside. We can score so I agree, defense is the key to the game.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Saratoga2 View Post
    I watched Wake against Fla State. State defended intensely including pressure on the guy bring the ball up. Wake still managed to shoot the 3 very well and almost knocked State off. Just a couple of missed FTs at the end made the difference in Wake's effort. We had better defend the 3 point line and use Williams to intimidate inside. We can score so I agree, defense is the key to the game.
    Yep - this is not the same WF team that we played earlier. New coach now 15 games in so they know his system. And they added a BIG piece - leading scorer - Dubose who has only been back these last two games.. He has averaged 17 points 4 rebounds and 4 assists (thats the key to me - helping the team get better w assists) in a win at BC and overtime loss (so basically even) at FSU. The early WF team would never have stayed with FSU in FL. That's a game changer. Have to keep them off the 3s (which is our weakness). They have won their last two home games also - I realize they got beat bad on the road but we are playing them in WS. They have 7 players who shoot the 3 at 34pct or better.

  19. #19
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    Feb 2007
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    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by gofurman View Post
    Yep - this is not the same WF team that we played earlier. New coach now 15 games in so they know his system. And they added a BIG piece - leading scorer - Dubose who has only been back these last two games.. He has averaged 17 points 4 rebounds and 4 assists (thats the key to me - helping the team get better w assists) in a win at BC and overtime loss (so basically even) at FSU. The early WF team would never have stayed with FSU in FL. That's a game changer. Have to keep them off the 3s (which is our weakness). They have won their last two home games also - I realize they got beat bad on the road but we are playing them in WS. They have 7 players who shoot the 3 at 34pct or better.
    Sounds like a game for small ball.
    "This is the best of all possible worlds."
    Dr. Pangloss - Candide

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by chrishoke View Post
    Sounds like a game for small ball.
    The only problem is that we don't have very many smalls to work with. But yes, we certainly don't have to worry about Wake Forest's size in this one. So if Williams is struggling, we can go to 3 guards and Moore or one of Brakefield/Coleman as needed without concern for being overmatched in size. And I'd expect to see a decent amount of our 3 guard lineup in this one.

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