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  1. #61
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    scottdude8 is online now Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    I don't know Juwan Howard. I agree with you that they will likely try to lock him in long term. Though to be clear, I think that will likely have more to do with investing in the program than investing in Juwan Howard. I just checked and he made $150 million in the NBA. So from a quality of life perspective, making $5 million vs. $4 million per year really doesn't matter. Sure, he didn't get to where he did without being competitive so he wants to be paid what he is worth. But I'm guessing a lot of his concern is about having the resources around him to help him succeed - money to pay top assistants, keeping up on facilities, etc.
    That's a very good point... his decision might not be as money driven as many coaching decisions. But if you're thinking he might leave Michigan because of the money spent on the program, let me put that definitively to bed... the athletic department is FLUSH with cash, unsurprisingly, and has been spending it lavishly on the basketball program over the past decade. The practice facilities are brand new within the past 5 years or so, and Howard has said how much he loves his coaching staff with Martelli and Eisley (neither of which I imagine came cheap). If he goes to the NBA, it'll likely be because he wants the challenge/recognition, not because Michigan didn't give him the support he wanted.
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  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    Regarding (C), I am not nearly as confident in that as you are. I mean, he would probably do well, but he's never coached or recruited at the major conference level. It is not a foregone conclusion that he even have the level of success he had at Butler if he coached at Duke, let alone that he would match or exceed K's success. Is this Brad Steven's burner account (or maybe a close relative)?

    As for (D), I'm not sure travel doesn't end up a wash if you factor in travel for recruiting (and at least with game travel you know your schedule way, way in advance and can plan around it as someone noted upthread, which is not the case for college recruiting).
    Getting Butler to two straight NCAA Tournament Championship Finals is one of the greatest coaching feats in college basketball history. And he has undoubtedly learned a heckuva lot more while coaching the Celtics. Iím supremely confident that he would do as well or possibly even better than K has done over the past decade.

    And I am almost certain that the total number of travel days for him at Duke versus that of the NBA would be significantly fewer, especially after 2-3 years of first establishing his program and then afterwards delegating 90% of the recruiting travel to his assistants.

    By the way, your comment of ďIs this Brad Stevensís burner account (or maybe a close relative?)Ē was really funny.😂 Good stuff.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by mkirsh View Post
    It's a good question, but in general I believe the perception is that the NBA is the more coveted job. There isn't actually a lot of head coaching movement between leagues, but of the few cases of coaches moving from the NCAA to the NBA (Stevens, Donovan, etc), they are generally poached away from their college job, vs the small handful of NBA coaches moved to the NCAA (Cal, Leonard Hamilton, and Tim Floyd are all I can think of right now) were fired by NBA teams. Said another way, I can't think of a a single example of anyone leaving a stable NBA head coaching job for a college job, but definitely could be missing one. All this to say, I can't see Stevens to Duke, regardless of how much Coach K likes it here.
    The top college coaches are in enviable positions. High income, deities on their campus who really (if they behave sensibly) don't have bosses in the conventional sense. The tenure of these top few extend for decades. You know them -- K, Roy, Self, Calipari, Boeheim, (soon to be) Tony Bennett, and Jay Wright. It's not clear there are more than these -- Mark Few maybe, but West Coast Conference is not a big player and Spokane is a long way away from anywhere.

    The NBA top coaches also have good deals, but there are many fewer in that top echelon. Part of the problem is the Pat Riley Axiom: "After a few years, the players quit listening to you, and it's time to move on." That's an NBA, not a college, problem. Then there is the "bosses problem" -- GM, team president, owners change from time to time and the new guy or gal may want to make changes. Compare with college -- a new AD or chancellor at KU is not gonna fire Bill Self. In the past 75 years in the NBA, there are only five coaches who have won more than two championships: Phil Jackson, Auerbach, Popovich, Riley and George Mikan's coach John Kundla (yep, I had to look him up). It is really hard to become an established NBA coach -- less so if you go to the right college position.

    Now, would I personally leave a relatively secure position at an NBA franchise to return to college. Probably not, but the top college coaching gigs are really good jobs.

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    'And I strongly disagree with the notion that Duke is a "4ish" program. Duke is the best known amateur team in the entire world -- thanks to its distinctive branding (there is, despite what Odom says, an advantage in not being named for a state) and chiefly to Coach K as the highly successful Team USA coach'
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    Getting Butler to two straight NCAA Tournament Championship Finals is one of the greatest coaching feats in college basketball history. And he has undoubtedly learned a heckuva lot more while coaching the Celtics. Iím supremely confident that he would do as well or possibly even better than K has done over the past decade.

    And I am almost certain that the total number of travel days for him at Duke versus that of the NBA would be significantly fewer, especially after 2-3 years of first establishing his program and then afterwards delegating 90% of the recruiting travel to his assistants.
    How does it compare to winning those back to back finals?

    By the way, your comment of ďIs this Brad Stevensís burner account (or maybe a close relative?)Ē was really funny.😂 Good stuff.
    Corny and overdone, I suppose, but I still amused myself writing it...glad you enjoyed it too

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    The top college coaches are in enviable positions. High income, deities on their campus who really (if they behave sensibly) don't have bosses in the conventional sense. The tenure of these top few extend for decades. You know them -- K, Roy, Self, Calipari, Boeheim, (soon to be) Tony Bennett, and Jay Wright. It's not clear there are more than these -- Mark Few maybe, but West Coast Conference is not a big player and Spokane is a long way away from anywhere.

    The NBA top coaches also have good deals, but there are many fewer in that top echelon. Part of the problem is the Pat Riley Axiom: "After a few years, the players quit listening to you, and it's time to move on." That's an NBA, not a college, problem. Then there is the "bosses problem" -- GM, team president, owners change from time to time and the new guy or gal may want to make changes. Compare with college -- a new AD or chancellor at KU is not gonna fire Bill Self. In the past 75 years in the NBA, there are only five coaches who have won more than two championships: Phil Jackson, Auerbach, Popovich, Riley and George Mikan's coach John Kundla (yep, I had to look him up). It is really hard to become an established NBA coach -- less so if you go to the right college position.

    Now, would I personally leave a relatively secure position at an NBA franchise to return to college. Probably not, but the top college coaching gigs are really good jobs.

    Kindly,
    Sage
    'And I strongly disagree with the notion that Duke is a "4ish" program. Duke is the best known amateur team in the entire world -- thanks to its distinctive branding (there is, despite what Odom says, an advantage in not being named for a state) and chiefly to Coach K as the highly successful Team USA coach'
    A lot of top college positions have opened up within the past 15-20 years - Kansas, UNC, UK, IU, UCLA, Arizona - none drew anyone from the NBA. The only one I can remember where an NBA coach publicly considered it was George Karl to UNC but he ultimately said no. Itís limited data points to be sure, but what evidence we have says the draw is not there. Iíd love Quin Snyder or Brad Stevens to eschew the NBA to replace K, but I think itís extremely unlikely.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by mkirsh View Post
    A lot of top college positions have opened up within the past 15-20 years - Kansas, UNC, UK, IU, UCLA, Arizona - none drew anyone from the NBA. The only one I can remember where an NBA coach publicly considered it was George Karl to UNC but he ultimately said no. Itís limited data points to be sure, but what evidence we have says the draw is not there. Iíd love Quin Snyder or Brad Stevens to eschew the NBA to replace K, but I think itís extremely unlikely.
    Admittedly weak examples, but you have Mullin going to St. John's (I think he was in the NBA front office) and Ewing going to Georgetown (he had been an NBA assistant for a while). And Larry Brown going to SMU, but he was between jobs at the time so it's not like he gave something up. And he's Larry Brown.

    I think Quin is most likely to be a wild card because the job we are talking about is at his alma mater, and he also has extensive college coaching experience, both as an assistant at the alma mater and as a college head coach. That being said, I'm not holding my breath.

  7. #67
    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    Getting Butler to two straight NCAA Tournament Championship Finals is one of the greatest coaching feats in college basketball history. And he has undoubtedly learned a heckuva lot more while coaching the Celtics. Iím supremely confident that he would do as well or possibly even better than K has done over the past decade.

    And I am almost certain that the total number of travel days for him at Duke versus that of the NBA would be significantly fewer, especially after 2-3 years of first establishing his program and then afterwards delegating 90% of the recruiting travel to his assistants.

    By the way, your comment of ďIs this Brad Stevensís burner account (or maybe a close relative?)Ē was really funny.😂 Good stuff.
    Butler to 2 championship games was lightning in a bottle. Donovan caught the 2 bolt as well. Neither prove you to be a great long term coach.

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    How does it compare to winning those back to back finals?
    Not sure thatís relevant to the point Iím making ó that only a truly superlative coach could get a program like Butler to two straight National Championship games.

    As for how it compares to a coach winning those back-to-back championship games there is no way of knowing, because two different coaches won those games.

    And as a reminder, Stevens came within an eyelash of winning the 2010 National Championship game versus Duke on a shot at the buzzer that just BARELY missed.

    In my mind it defies all logic to think that he would not be a fantastic coach at Duke when you combine his proven ability to coach college basketball with the incredible financial resources of the university, rock-solid support from the athletics program, tradition and lore of the basketball program, and recruiting prowess of the Duke brand.

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by Indoor66 View Post
    Butler to 2 championship games was lightning in a bottle. Donovan caught the 2 bolt as well. Neither prove you to be a great long term coach.
    Dang it! I was going to bring up Donovan, but I was waiting until after I got a response about appearing in vs. winning the championship games.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    Not sure that’s relevant to the point I’m making — that only a truly superlative coach could get a program like Butler to two straight National Championship games.

    As for how it compares to a coach winning those back-to-back championship games there is no way of knowing, because two different coaches won those games.
    What school won back to back championships under different coaches? I am not aware of any school winning back to back basketball championships under different coaches. Is one of us confused? I don't think it is me, but I've been wrong before.

    And as a reminder, Stevens came within an eyelash of winning the 2010 National Championship game versus Duke on a shot at the buzzer that just BARELY missed.
    No reminders needed, I was there!

    In my mind it defies all logic to think that he would not be a fantastic coach at Duke when you combine his proven ability to coach college basketball with the incredible financial resources of the university, rock-solid support from the athletics program, tradition and lore of the basketball program, and recruiting prowess of the Duke brand.
    Seemingly good coaches go on to fail after a move to another program all the time. I don't think he would come to Duke and go 3-25 or anything, I think Stevens would be a very good hire, but there is basically no such thing as a slam dunk sure thing coaching hire. There are plenty of factors that might lead Stevens to be very successful at Butler, moderately successful in Boston, but still struggle to find success at Duke. I keep getting told that Duke Athletics is financially strapped right now, I guess we'll assume that is temporary and will resolve itself sooner than later.

    As far as the Duke brand for recruiting, I think you would be surprised how fast that shine wears off if the next coach doesn't have immediate success.

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    And as a reminder, Stevens came within an eyelash of winning the 2010 National Championship game versus Duke on a shot at the buzzer that just BARELY missed.
    Worth noting that Kevin Ollie, Rick Pitino, Bill Self, Billy Donovan, Gary Williams, and Tubby Smith are all championship winning coaches. Who knows what other scrubs made the championship game but didn't end up winning. Making the final is a heck of a feat, but it isn't quite​ the indicator of surefire elite coaching that you're implying.

  12. #72
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    Lots of good arguments being made both ways in this thread...

    I do want to add one thing, I don't think "Can you name anyone else who has done this?" is a strong argument because we are talking about Duke and talking about replacing Coach K. Duke and K are both pretty singular and unique in college sports -- the highest profile program and the best known and most successful coach of all time. I think as a general rule it is correct that NBA coaches do not look at college jobs... but Duke is different.

    Put simply, there are a lot of reasons why a NBA coach would not see a college gig as a step they wanted to take, but I think that becomes kinda moot when the prospect of replacing the GOAT at the biggest brand in college basketball is on the table.
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  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    but I think that becomes kinda moot when the prospect of replacing the GOAT at the biggest brand in college basketball is on the table.
    I don't think people are ignoring this, I think they are coming to the opposite conclusion. Replacing the GOAT makes the job less​ appealing, not more.

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Indoor66 View Post
    Butler to 2 championship games was lightning in a bottle. Donovan caught the 2 bolt as well. Neither prove you to be a great long term coach.
    No offense (you know whatís coming next after someone says that), but comparing the middling athletics resources of Butler with the endowed scholarship mega-goliath that is the University of Florida is rather amusing. 😉
    Last edited by Steven43; 03-10-2021 at 05:33 PM.

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    What school won back to back championships under different coaches? I am not aware of any school winning back to back basketball championships under different coaches. Is one of us confused? I don't think it is me, but I've been wrong before.
    I had thought you were trying to say that the back-to-back Finals to which Coach Stevens took Butler were won by the same coach. I was simply pointing out that those championships were won by two different coaches.

  16. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    The top college coaches are in enviable positions. High income, deities on their campus who really (if they behave sensibly) don't have bosses in the conventional sense. The tenure of these top few extend for decades. You know them -- K, Roy, Self, Calipari, Boeheim, (soon to be) Tony Bennett, and Jay Wright. It's not clear there are more than these -- Mark Few maybe, but West Coast Conference is not a big player and Spokane is a long way away from anywhere.

    The NBA top coaches also have good deals, but there are many fewer in that top echelon. Part of the problem is the Pat Riley Axiom: "After a few years, the players quit listening to you, and it's time to move on." That's an NBA, not a college, problem. Then there is the "bosses problem" -- GM, team president, owners change from time to time and the new guy or gal may want to make changes. Compare with college -- a new AD or chancellor at KU is not gonna fire Bill Self. In the past 75 years in the NBA, there are only five coaches who have won more than two championships: Phil Jackson, Auerbach, Popovich, Riley and George Mikan's coach John Kundla (yep, I had to look him up). It is really hard to become an established NBA coach -- less so if you go to the right college position.

    Now, would I personally leave a relatively secure position at an NBA franchise to return to college. Probably not, but the top college coaching gigs are really good jobs.

    Kindly,
    Sage
    'And I strongly disagree with the notion that Duke is a "4ish" program. Duke is the best known amateur team in the entire world -- thanks to its distinctive branding (there is, despite what Odom says, an advantage in not being named for a state) and chiefly to Coach K as the highly successful Team USA coach'
    Gonzaga looks great Suggs will star in the NBA and Gonzaga may repeat Indiana 1976 undefeated. Mark Few has a great program in Spokane

  17. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by heyman25 View Post
    Gonzaga looks great Suggs will star in the NBA and Gonzaga may repeat Indiana 1976 undefeated. Mark Few has a great program in Spokane
    He (Few) sure does have a great program. Gonzaga is very good almost every single year. They are not far behind Duke and UNC at this point.

  18. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post

    Kindly,
    Sage
    'And I strongly disagree with the notion that Duke is a "4ish" program. Duke is the best known amateur team in the entire world -- thanks to its distinctive branding (there is, despite what Odom says, an advantage in not being named for a state) and chiefly to Coach K as the highly successful Team USA coach'
    As long as St Michael is here, we're 1ish in momentary rankings.

    But over the history of college basketball, we're 3rd to 5th, which is why I said 4ish. We're 4th in all time wins. The Foster thing was kind of a flash in the pan (three lousy years, two good ones and one great one), and our diachronic reputation outside Koach rests chiefly on a four-year run by Vic Bubas that happened right before UCLA's crazy empire. I've already acknowledged Cameron, Gerard, and Bradley; this isn't to dismiss them.

    UK has won championships with four different coaches, Carolina with three, KU with three. We've done it with one guy, and only went to four FFs before him. KU is just 3-6 in finals, maybe you put them behind us, though they have more wins, but then maybe UCLA goes ahead of us. We'd have to sweep the head-to-head series with Carolina until Koach is about 90yo just to pull even. What Carolina has already proven they can do is to stay at the crown of the hill after the legend retires. Hell, I think Roy's better than Dean. We are at present merely hoping to prove we can do the same thing. In women's, we sure didn't manage to upgrade after Goestenkors. We'll see about Lawson.

    And this is before you get into a discussion with what to do about UCLA, and assuming you put us ahead of IU.

    I think the best argument to make for us is one I seldom see people make here, which is integration. That is, a lot of the longitudinal case for the other five over us rests on pre-integration and early-integration success. Duke's first AfAm *star* played for Koach, Banks' senior year. The sole case I can see for us being #1 all time is to say, this is a sport of, more than anything else, African American excellence, and the college sport wasn't truly what it is now until it was really *fully* integrated and that didn't happen until the 1980s. At which time, cable TV became widespread and the 64-team field emerged. So maybe the last four decades should count a lot more than the previous six or so.

    Situating the whole sport from a Civil Rights vantage, this is a compelling case. But it also works out awfully conveniently if one is trying to argue Duke over those other five programs by drawing the line around when Koach showed up. It also doesn't do much to define Carolina away, and most importantly, it ignores the fact that UCLA and Carolina did a far better job of integrating robustly, earlier than Duke did.

    (If Bob Verga's 100%, maybe Duke gets to be the villain for the ages in the Texas Western story instead of Kentucky. I'm okay with it being Kentucky).

    But if waggity-white times still count, Duke MBB, considered long term, is not #1, and staying where we are will be heavily contested and require a homerun hire. All the other five schools in this discussion have an advantage Duke most decidedly does not, which is a big state school alumni base much of which lives relatively close to campus.

    Duke is not quite as important as Duke people think Duke is.

  19. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    Staying where we are will be heavily contested and require a homerun hire. All the other five schools in this discussion have an advantage Duke most decidedly does not, which is a big state school alumni base much of which lives relatively close to campus.
    All of the elite programs you mentioned need a good-to-great coach to remain at or near the top. Thatís not unique to Duke.

  20. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    All of the elite programs you mentioned need a good-to-great coach to remain at or near the top. Thatís not unique to Duke.
    No one said it was. I laid out the case that Duke's all-time status rests disproportionately on one coach more than any of the others, except UCLA/Wooden. Even there, they won an NCAAT without him.

    BTW, you still haven't given us any examples of anyone doing what you claim it's a "no brainer" for Brad Stevens to do.

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