MBB: Duke 69, NCSU 53 Post Game Thread

[Kedsy]

Mark has a bit of Casey Sanders in him. The good news is that freshman Mark is probably as good as Sanders was when he was a JR.

He is actually playing like senior-year Sanders, but with a higher scoring and block rate and lower foul rate.

If he can grow into his frame some next year, he should be really impactful.

I was thinking he reminds me of junior year Marshall Plumlee, at least on offense. Great energy but needs to slow down and play more in control, which will come with game experience. Plenty of raw size and athleticism. He has longer arms than MP3 which allows him a much higher block rate.

He looks a little like Casey Sanders, but as CDu points out, Mark Williams is playing better than even senior Sanders. He's also playing more like senior Marshall Plumlee (though Mark gets a LOT more blocks) than the junior version (though of course, even junior Marshall was heavier and physically stronger). I said this in another thread, but I think the best comp right now is freshman Shelden Williams (though believe it or not, Mark has higher rebounding rates and a much higher block rate than freshman Shelden).

The fact that Mark had only one defensive rebound in 27 minutes against NCSU is a little concerning. But Mark has been an outstanding rebounder up until the State game, so my guess is it was just him getting a little block-happy (and thus out of position for defensive rebounds). He's a work-in-progress, he'll find the right balance given time.

[DU82]

He looks a little like Casey Sanders, but as CDu points out, Mark Williams is playing better than even senior Sanders. He's also playing more like senior Marshall Plumlee (though Mark gets a LOT more blocks) than the junior version (though of course, even junior Marshall was heavier and physically stronger). I said this in another thread, but I think the best comp right now is freshman Shelden Williams (though believe it or not, Mark has higher rebounding rates and a much higher block rate than freshman Shelden).

The fact that Mark had only one defensive rebound in 27 minutes against NCSU is a little concerning. But Mark has been an outstanding rebounder up until the State game, so my guess is it was just him getting a little block-happy (and thus out of position for defensive rebounds). He's a work-in-progress, he'll find the right balance given time.

There were at least two instances that I recall when the defensive rebound was heading Mark's way, and he started downcourt instead of securing the ball. He wasn't necessarily the closest to the ball, but each time a teammate had to rush to grab the ball to make sure State didn't get it (had to change direction to get to it.) He gets down court quickly, but needs to wait until we secure the ball.

[dukelifer]

Duke’s offense has been a top-20 offense this season, and more recently a top-10 offense. The defense has been the biggest issue since the Clemson game.

If that clicks - and that is a big if- they are dangerous. But the D has been a big issue for most of the season

[AZLA]

There were at least two instances that I recall when the defensive rebound was heading Mark's way, and he started downcourt instead of securing the ball. He wasn't necessarily the closest to the ball, but each time a teammate had to rush to grab the ball to make sure State didn't get it (had to change direction to get to it.) He gets down court quickly, but needs to wait until we secure the ball.

And not bring his hands and ball down when near the rim receiving a lob pass or rebound — the little guys keep swatting it away. Mark has so much promise. I like his natural shot blocking (goes straight up) so less fouls called. Also has a good aggressive move to the basket and can score layups through fouls. I like his energy and aggressiveness in the paint. Give him some time to weight lift and grow out his shoulders more ... and develop his coordination even more. He’s going to fun player to watch at Duke for a few seasons.

[DukieInBrasil]

While I agree that this team needs to learn how to win close games, it also blew a 15 point first half lead against Notre Dame, so never letting State back in is also progress.

one of the good signs from the game was that Duke never really let State back in it. That's an important mindset and skill to develop.

Mark Williams blocked a lot of shots, as State inexplicably kept trying to post him up. Bates isn’t a go-to player, yet they kept going in there. The thing I liked best was his ability to hit the 17 footer again. But he has established himself as a clear part of the rotation going forward.

DJ Steward played really well also. He had been struggling with TOs, but had a 4:1 assist:turnover ratio yesterday. That is a huge step against a team so handsy and good at forcing turnovers. His shooting numbers continued to look good, and he started showing his off-the-dribble game as well.

Also nice to see Brakefield play his best ball in weeks (months?).

Moore had a solid game. He took good shots, the 3 just wasn’t falling for him.

The jumper from the key was also my favorite thing. That sort of range can help make the rest of the offense even better by creating more space. I also think the "twin towers" pairing of Mark with Matt is paying (or could) better dividends than Matt + Jalen.

Mark has a bit of Casey Sanders in him. The good news is that freshman Mark is probably as good as Sanders was when he was a JR.

Mark's hands are much better than Casey's were. Mark's offensive game is already much more advanced than even Sr. Sanders.

And not bring his hands and ball down when near the rim receiving a lob pass or rebound — the little guys keep swatting it away. Mark has so much promise. I like his natural shot blocking (goes straight up) so less fouls called. Also has a good aggressive move to the basket and can score layups through fouls. I like his energy and aggressiveness in the paint. Give him some time to weight lift and grow out his shoulders more ... and develop his coordination even more. He’s going to fun player to watch at Duke for a few seasons.

Mark's development so far this year has been impressive!

[gofurman]

There were at least two instances that I recall when the defensive rebound was heading Mark's way, and he started downcourt instead of securing the ball. He wasn't necessarily the closest to the ball, but each time a teammate had to rush to grab the ball to make sure State didn't get it (had to change direction to get to it.) He gets down court quickly, but needs to wait until we secure the ball.

I saw this also and it was odd. Mark is near the ball and yet runs away with no one from either team having the ball - it’s just bouncing ... another player had to come over and get it or it would’ve gone out of bounds. A little strange

[gep]

I saw this also and it was odd. Mark is near the ball and yet runs away with no one from either team having the ball - it’s just bouncing ... another player had to come over and get it or it would’ve gone out of bounds. A little strange

I saw this too. Scratched my head... what was he thinking? Then, I thought that since everyone started heading downcourt, he thought he'd better high-tail it downcourt too, otherwise get pulled for not hustling downcourt. After all, that's probably what has been drilled into these guys in practice. But yes, that ball was live, going out of bounds, and another Duke player... can't remember who... came over to save the ball before going out. He's learning... fast.

[scottdude8]

VIP: Very Important Post. Williams down low allows Hurt to roam around the court, low to high and around the perimeter. He can set effective screens and then receive the ball for good looks. We get a two-fer with Williams. His own low court presence [on offense and defense] and freeing up our best 3 pt shooter.

There is a lot of discussion in this thread about Coach K's substitutions. Sweet. In past years, much of the discussion has been about Coach's not using his bench. He seems to be using more players, although I don' have the stats. Thank you, Kedsy!

FYI hustleplays, tried to respond to your PM but you have receiving PMs turned off! 😅

[Lar77]

And not bring his hands and ball down when near the rim receiving a lob pass or rebound — the little guys keep swatting it away. Mark has so much promise. I like his natural shot blocking (goes straight up) so less fouls called. Also has a good aggressive move to the basket and can score layups through fouls. I like his energy and aggressiveness in the paint. Give him some time to weight lift and grow out his shoulders more ... and develop his coordination even more. He’s going to fun player to watch at Duke for a few seasons.

It's a common (and natural) fault for big men to bring the ball down low, especially as freshman. I like Mark's hustle.

[Kedsy]

There is a lot of discussion in this thread about Coach K's substitutions. Sweet. In past years, much of the discussion has been about Coach's not using his bench. He seems to be using more players, although I don' have the stats. Thank you, Kedsy!

The stats I've compiled over the years regarding length of rotation look at how many players received 10+ minutes in "close games," defined as games after January 1 decided by fewer than 20 points. With the caveat that this may be misleading if, e.g., the 8th man in the rotation consistently receives 8 or 9 minutes, but you have to draw a line somewhere. Also, this analysis will not reveal "depth" in situations where different players receive 10+ minutes in different games (as is the case this season). For example, Jalen Johnson only played 8 minutes against NCSU, so in that game he was not considered part of the "rotation," while in other games he obviously was. In fact, every recruited scholarship player on Duke's roster (11 players, in all) has played 10 or more minutes in at least one "close game" (as I define that).

That said, here you go, the number of "close games" (i.e., after 1/1, decided by fewer than 20 points) at which the specified number of players played 10+ minutes in each of Coach K's seasons at Duke:

Year	5	6	7	8	9	10	Avg
2021		2	6	1	1		7.10
2020		1	5	4	2		7.58
2019	1	7	9	3			6.70
2018	4	4	7	1			6.31
2017		6	14	1			6.76
2016	1	18	3	0			6.09
2015	1	9	8	2			6.55
2014		2	8	6	1		7.35
2013		6	10	2			6.78
2012		1	10	9	2		7.55
2011		6	9	5			6.95
2010	2	5	8	6			6.86
2009	1	4	10	4	1		7.00
2008		3	5	8	3		7.58
2007	1	3	11	2			6.82
2006		4	17	0			6.81
2005		6	14	0			6.70
2004		3	14	1			6.89
2003		3	17	2	1		7.04
2002		8	3	0			6.27
2001		8	8	0			6.50
2000		11	5	0			6.31
1999		2	7	2			7.00
1998		0	9	4			7.31
1997		1	9	7	1		7.44
1996		4	13	1			6.83
1995				1			8.00
1994		8	14	0			6.64
1993		7	8	4			6.84
1992		10	9	5			6.79
1991		0	13	0	4		7.47
1990		1	11	9			7.38
1989		1	9	7			7.35
1988		3	12	6	2		7.30
1987		3	11	6	1		7.24
1986		2	16	4		1	7.22
1985		10	7	2			6.58
1984		8	12	1			6.67
1983		2	6	5	1		7.36
1982		7	5	4	1		6.94
1981		7	6	3	1		6.88

As you can see, the "average" length of rotation Coach K has played this season is the 5th-most in the 21st Century (2020 tied for most, so we're playing a fair amount shorter rotation than last season). Still, using my definitions, we're still only playing a 7-man rotation (albeit with such rotation varying from game to game).

It may or may not be worth noting that of the six Duke teams in the 21st Century with an "average" > 7, only one such team (2003) has gone past the Round of 32 in the NCAA tournament, and that team (a) had the lowest average of the six teams (7.04); and (b) only made the Sweet 16.

[Phredd3]

Mark has so much promise. I like his natural shot blocking (goes straight up) so less fouls called.

Actually, I distinctly recall commenting earlier in the season (v. Clemson, I think) that Mark was consistently swatting down and through the ball on block attempts. That's what I would regard as his "natural" shot blocking. The going straight up - the way he's doing things now - is a learned improvement.

And that reveals very good things about Mark.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The stats I've compiled over the years regarding length of rotation look at how many players received 10+ minutes in "close games," defined as games after January 1 decided by fewer than 20 points. With the caveat that this may be misleading if, e.g., the 8th man in the rotation consistently receives 8 or 9 minutes, but you have to draw a line somewhere. Also, this analysis will not reveal "depth" in situations where different players receive 10+ minutes in different games (as is the case this season). For example, Jalen Johnson only played 8 minutes against NCSU, so in that game he was not considered part of the "rotation," while in other games he obviously was. In fact, every recruited scholarship player on Duke's roster (11 players, in all) has played 10 or more minutes in at least one "close game" (as I define that).

That said, here you go, the number of "close games" (i.e., after 1/1, decided by fewer than 20 points) at which the specified number of players played 10+ minutes in each of Coach K's seasons at Duke:

Year	5	6	7	8	9	10	Avg
2021		2	6	1	1		7.10
2020		1	5	4	2		7.58
2019	1	7	9	3			6.70
2018	4	4	7	1			6.31
2017		6	14	1			6.76
2016	1	18	3	0			6.09
2015	1	9	8	2			6.55
2014		2	8	6	1		7.35
2013		6	10	2			6.78
2012		1	10	9	2		7.55
2011		6	9	5			6.95
2010	2	5	8	6			6.86
2009	1	4	10	4	1		7.00
2008		3	5	8	3		7.58
2007	1	3	11	2			6.82
2006		4	17	0			6.81
2005		6	14	0			6.70
2004		3	14	1			6.89
2003		3	17	2	1		7.04
2002		8	3	0			6.27
2001		8	8	0			6.50
2000		11	5	0			6.31
1999		2	7	2			7.00
1998		0	9	4			7.31
1997		1	9	7	1		7.44
1996		4	13	1			6.83
1995				1			8.00
1994		8	14	0			6.64
1993		7	8	4			6.84
1992		10	9	5			6.79
1991		0	13	0	4		7.47
1990		1	11	9			7.38
1989		1	9	7			7.35
1988		3	12	6	2		7.30
1987		3	11	6	1		7.24
1986		2	16	4		1	7.22
1985		10	7	2			6.58
1984		8	12	1			6.67
1983		2	6	5	1		7.36
1982		7	5	4	1		6.94
1981		7	6	3	1		6.88

As you can see, the "average" length of rotation Coach K has played this season is the 5th-most in the 21st Century (2020 tied for most, so we're playing a fair amount shorter rotation than last season). Still, using my definitions, we're still only playing a 7-man rotation (albeit with such rotation varying from game to game).

It may or may not be worth noting that of the six Duke teams in the 21st Century with an "average" > 7, only one such team (2003) has gone past the Round of 32 in the NCAA tournament, and that team (a) had the lowest average of the six teams (7.04); and (b) only made the Sweet 16.

Interesting to see the biggest number on that chart as the year most closely referenced this season.

[CDu]

Interesting to see the biggest number on that chart as the year most closely referenced this season.

To be fair, the sample size of close games for that season was 1 game.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

To be fair, the sample size of close games for that season was 1 game.

Wow. For anyone who isn't paying close attention, that's a hot burn.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The stats I've compiled over the years regarding length of rotation look at how many players received 10+ minutes in "close games," defined as games after January 1 decided by fewer than 20 points. With the caveat that this may be misleading if, e.g., the 8th man in the rotation consistently receives 8 or 9 minutes, but you have to draw a line somewhere. Also, this analysis will not reveal "depth" in situations where different players receive 10+ minutes in different games (as is the case this season). For example, Jalen Johnson only played 8 minutes against NCSU, so in that game he was not considered part of the "rotation," while in other games he obviously was. In fact, every recruited scholarship player on Duke's roster (11 players, in all) has played 10 or more minutes in at least one "close game" (as I define that).

That said, here you go, the number of "close games" (i.e., after 1/1, decided by fewer than 20 points) at which the specified number of players played 10+ minutes in each of Coach K's seasons at Duke:

Year	5	6	7	8	9	10	Avg
2021		2	6	1	1		7.10
2020		1	5	4	2		7.58
2019	1	7	9	3			6.70
2018	4	4	7	1			6.31
2017		6	14	1			6.76
2016	1	18	3	0			6.09
2015	1	9	8	2			6.55
2014		2	8	6	1		7.35
2013		6	10	2			6.78
2012		1	10	9	2		7.55
2011		6	9	5			6.95
2010	2	5	8	6			6.86
2009	1	4	10	4	1		7.00
2008		3	5	8	3		7.58
2007	1	3	11	2			6.82
2006		4	17	0			6.81
2005		6	14	0			6.70
2004		3	14	1			6.89
2003		3	17	2	1		7.04
2002		8	3	0			6.27
2001		8	8	0			6.50
2000		11	5	0			6.31
1999		2	7	2			7.00
1998		0	9	4			7.31
1997		1	9	7	1		7.44
1996		4	13	1			6.83
1995				1			8.00
1994		8	14	0			6.64
1993		7	8	4			6.84
1992		10	9	5			6.79
1991		0	13	0	4		7.47
1990		1	11	9			7.38
1989		1	9	7			7.35
1988		3	12	6	2		7.30
1987		3	11	6	1		7.24
1986		2	16	4		1	7.22
1985		10	7	2			6.58
1984		8	12	1			6.67
1983		2	6	5	1		7.36
1982		7	5	4	1		6.94
1981		7	6	3	1		6.88

As you can see, the "average" length of rotation Coach K has played this season is the 5th-most in the 21st Century (2020 tied for most, so we're playing a fair amount shorter rotation than last season). Still, using my definitions, we're still only playing a 7-man rotation (albeit with such rotation varying from game to game).

It may or may not be worth noting that of the six Duke teams in the 21st Century with an "average" > 7, only one such team (2003) has gone past the Round of 32 in the NCAA tournament, and that team (a) had the lowest average of the six teams (7.04); and (b) only made the Sweet 16.

Amazing hot contrarian this is to the general consensus on the board that K needs to go deeper. Myself included.

[Kedsy]

To be fair, the sample size of close games for that season was 1 game.

I only put games coached by Coach K on the chart. For the whole season, there were obviously a lot more close games than that.

[Jim3k]

Mark has a bit of Casey Sanders in him. The good news is that freshman Mark is probably as good as Sanders was when he was a JR.

For us old(er) guys, in our era, we had a couple of twin towers in the early 60s. Most of you have no idea about them, since they are now in their late 70s. One was Jay Buckley and the other was Hack Tison. Both were 7-footers, despite their official height of 6-10. Recall that Bubas wouldn't allow anybody to be 7 foot tall.

IMO, the best comparison for Mark is Hack Tison. Both play(ed) as skinny 7 footers. Their agility is comparable, but they played in different times. The inside-out game is a bit different, now, but Williams plays a lot like Tison. Tison supposedly was 210 (probably not after his soph year, and then more like 225) and Williams is supposedly 243, but is probably more like 225, as well. If Mark can have a career like Tison (upper classman stats: 12 ppg, almost 8 rpg, shooting at about 50%), Mark will have done very well. I look forward to seeing it.

[hustleplays]

FYI hustleplays, tried to respond to your PM but you have receiving PMs turned off! 😅

Sorry about that, scottdude8! Should be okay now, and thanks for communicating.

[Kedsy]

Amazing ho[w] contrarian this is to the general consensus on the board that K needs to go deeper. Myself included.

Yeah, I would theorize that the more talented the team is, the more K relies on the top guys and the less talented, the more he has to mix and match. In other words, it may be the result of how good the team is or isn't, rather than the cause.

[throatybeard]

Yeah, I would theorize that the more talented the team is, the more K relies on the top guys and the less talented, the more he has to mix and match. In other words, it may be the result of how good the team is or isn't, rather than the cause.

^ This makes intuitive sense, like econ wise--it's grounded in opportunity cost. You ride JJ Redick or RJ Barrett for for 39 minutes because the opportunity cost of taking him out seems higher than taking out a middling starter on a so-so team. And if you have a fire six like UNC 1998, just rotate em around, then bring in Haywood (7) if somebody gets in foul trouble. But "developing" the ninth or tenth guy for ten minutes doesn't seem like a priority the further you get into February/postseason.