MBB: Duke 69, NCSU 53 Post Game Thread

[CoachJ10]

We play State again? Bad 3 pt shooting team. Check. Sloppy with the ball. Check. Slow bigs. Check.

I still get very squirmy with Wendell and Jordan handling the ball to initiate offense...but I’ll take the better defense performance any day.

[DU82]

Hit the wall? After playing what, 13 games? There may be a number of things going on with Jalen, but I don’t think fatigue is one of them. For his sake it better not be.

They’ve been sequestered since August, with just the short holiday break away from the Washington Duke. There’s more than games that can wear down somebody, especially during the past 11 months.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

Hit the wall? After playing what, 13 games? There may be a number of things going on with Jalen, but I don’t think fatigue is one of them. For his sake it better not be.

He looks lost on the court. Shows no intensity or enthusiasm. Doesn’t mesh with his teammates. He may be physically talented, but seems to not understand how to play the game. Big disappointment.

[Kedsy]

After three stinkers, we looked like the team that clobbered Clemson. Really good offense and fabulous defense. Hopefully we can bottle this and use it in the rest of our games.

OFFENSE

Possessions: 61.2 (weirdly slow; neither Duke nor NCSU normally plays anywhere close to this tempo (Duke has an average adjusted pace of 69.0 and State an average adjusted pace of 68.3; that said, normally we play good offense at slow pace and this game was no exception)
oRtg: 1.13 (1.17 adjusted; our 6th-best offensive performance of the season; the equivalent of the #9 offense in the country)
eFG%: 60.6% (excellent; our 3rd-best eFG of the season, and third straight game over 59%)
3pt%: 50.0% (fabulous, tied for our 2nd-best 3pt performance of the season, and third straight game at or over 44%)
2pt%: 51.7% (good but not spectacular)
%threes: 38.3% (a little high for how I expect our team to shoot, but when you shoot 44+% for three straight games, you deserve the benefit of the doubt)
FT rate: 36.2% (good, 3rd-best FTR of the season)
OR%: 26.9% (not so great)
TO%: 21.2% (this is actually pretty bad; our 4th-worst offensive TO% of the season; but this is NC State's specialty and fortunately it didn't cost us too much)
a/to: 0.77:1
%assisted: 45.8%
fast break pts: 14 (20.2% of points; good)

DEFENSE

dRtg: 0.87 (0.81 adjusted; awesome, the equivalent of the #1 (best) defense in the country but only our 2nd-best defensive effort of the season (after Clemson))
eFG%: 47.1% (good; our 5th-best opposing eFG% of the season)
3pt%: 20.0% (fab; our best 3pt defense of the season)
2pt%: 51.2% (not so great)
%threes: 19.6% (2nd-lowest such number of the season, meaning we ran them off the line and they missed when we didn't)
FT rate: 14.7% (outstanding; our 2nd-best opposing ftr of the season)
DR%: 61.3% (lousy; our 3rd-worst DR% of the season)
TO%: 29.4% (superb; this is where we won the game; our best defensive TO performance of the season)
a/to: 0.44:1 (the lowest such number our opponents have seen this season)
%assisted: 34.8% (3rd-lowest opposing assist rate of the season)
stl%: 14.7% (excellent; our 4th best steal rate of the season)
blk%: 11.8% (14.6% of 2pt shots) (very good; since Mark Williams has been playing rotation minutes, our block rate has been consistently strong)
fast break pts: 6 (9.8% of points; pretty good)


Nothing really to complain about in this game. If we play like this the rest of the way, I'll feel a lot better about the season.

[Kedsy]

Also JJ was really unable to finish around the rim, something that has been missing from his game for most of the year.

Coming into this game, Jalen Johnson was shooting 62.5% on shots at the rim.

Hurt is so weak on D that he might actually be better as a sixteen minute/game instant offense sub. In a way, he's so good at playing into foul trouble that he comes close to that role as it is.

Matthew Hurt averages 32.5 minutes per game this season.

I have not seen State all year but they were bad, whoa. I tried to find them on KenPom but I can't even locate them.

NC State is ranked #80 by KenPom. They are also #88 in the NET, which means if they win a few more games this one could go down as a Q1 win.

[kako]

5 thoughts...

1. I always think a win's a win - no more, no less. But given recent history, this one was a relief. Two weeks ago, I'd have said a win against State was expected... but not yesterday. Raleigh has been a tough place to play of late for the Devils, and everyone knows about the latest issues. So getting off the schnide here was no gimme. So I'll drink to that. Getting back to .500 is also a first goal for a losing team, so mission accomplished. Time to set a new goal, which would be getting above .500. It's all about one step at a time for this team.

2. Hurt was frickin' awesome offensively. Alexander is wrong. Barring a total tailspin, Hurt's making the first team All-ACC.

3. Williams continues to grow. He still will get outmuscled by stouter players, but his potential is huge for Duke. But a stat's a stat, and 5 blocks is a good one.

4. It was great to see Duke forcing so many turnovers. Sure State is not a very good team, undermanned, but the same was said about Miami. Reports said that Duke was focusing on defense, and the results would seem to bear that out. They need to continue that against Wake. I personally think the 3-PT defense stat was a bit of aberration. Duke's D there isn't stellar by any means, but 39% against was a bit much - there were so many players who Duke played against that went so far above their season averages. In any case, I'm feel with renewed focus on D, that percentage will continue to drop.

5. I still think Johnson is needed on this team to truly excel. I'm hoping that K can light a fire under the guy to play with smart verve. He rarely seems to be able put everything together. But when he does, it's very easy to see why he's so highly regarded.

9F

[uh_no]

2. Hurt was frickin' awesome offensively. Alexander is wrong. Barring a total tailspin, Hurt's making the first team All-ACC.

Shocker of the century.

[jimsumner]

RE: Matt Hurt. He was always going to start. Somehow the announcers got it wrong. Not sure how. But K did NOT adjust his starting lineup in response to anything Keatts did or did not do.

[weezie]

What a surprise! C. Alexander and the other guy spent so much time blathering away about it!
Heck, I expected a split screen analysis.

[hustleplays]

This team with a Hurt and Williams front court is just plain different than a Hurt and Johnson front court. Not only was the defensive effort apparent, but you could also see the effect of having a real lost player on some of the open 3s that Hurt got.

This is going to be interesting down the stretch. Johnson has the highest ceiling of any player on this team. But he hasn’t realized that potential on the floor yet, and the pieces seems to “fit” better with Williams right now. How does K balance those down the stretch? Because there will likely be games where we need Johnson to perform at his potential to win.

That will be the storyline going forward. Tonight the storyline is Williams and his effect on Hurt’s game. Some positives after a tough couple weeks.

VIP: Very Important Post. Williams down low allows Hurt to roam around the court, low to high and around the perimeter. He can set effective screens and then receive the ball for good looks. We get a two-fer with Williams. His own low court presence [on offense and defense] and freeing up our best 3 pt shooter.

There is a lot of discussion in this thread about Coach K's substitutions. Sweet. In past years, much of the discussion has been about Coach's not using his bench. He seems to be using more players, although I don' have the stats. Thank you, Kedsy!

[gep]

For the past couple of games, it seemed to me that Mark Williams may be channeling the February 2010 Zoubs... in his own way. If so, as others have said, Williams and Hurt may be the front court answer for the final push to the end of the season.

[Bob Green]

For the past couple of games, it seemed to me that Mark Williams may be channeling the February 2010 Zoubs... in his own way. If so, as others have said, Williams and Hurt may be the front court answer for the final push to the end of the season.

A huge difference is Williams is a freshman while Zoubek was a senior. I’m excited to watch Williams develop game by game the remainder of this season but really, really excited about next season and beyond. One of the great joys of college basketball is following player development over a career.

[Bob Green]

Jim Sumner recap on front page:

https://www.dukebasketballreport.com...-wendell-moore

Quote from Coach K on Jalen Johnson and “really physical” nature of the college game.

We had him in a couple times and he was knocked back.

[arnie]

They’ve been sequestered since August, with just the short holiday break away from the Washington Duke. There’s more than games that can wear down somebody, especially during the past 11 months.

Well Mark Williams (and the other freshmen) have been sequestered the same way. JJ is desperately needed for us to make the tourney; but making excuses for a “lottery pick” uninspired play isn’t the answer.

Beginning to believe K will continue to go in a different direction and JJ plays behind Williams. If so, what does NBA draft think.

[CameronBornAndBred]

For all the points posted, this was a solid and fun win and for more than one reason it was a victory that the team needed.

That being said, the win that I want is one where only a few points separate the teams when the buzzer sounds. This game was never in doubt with only 10 minutes played, so while it puts a spark of optimism back in the locker room (and in fandom), I will feel much better about us after seeing us play with poise in a closely won game. That is a game that this team needs to have happen, especially if we are to have any miraculous post season runs.

[Duke79UNLV77]

Well Mark Williams (and the other freshmen) have been sequestered the same way. JJ is desperately needed for us to make the tourney; but making excuses for a “lottery pick” uninspired play isn’t the answer.

Beginning to believe K will continue to go in a different direction and JJ plays behind Williams. If so, what does NBA draft think.

The NBA thinks that in a fairly weak draft someone who is very raw but has good size, very good court vision and the willingness to pass, and the ability to put up a triple double as a freshman could develop into a solid NBA player within 4 years from now.

I get that Johnson’s inconsistency and the fact that we won’t see anywhere near his top potential in college is frustrating, but I think he is trying hard and will be important if we have more success this year.

[miramar]

Jim Sumner recap on front page:

https://www.dukebasketballreport.com...-wendell-moore

Quote from Coach K on Jalen Johnson and “really physical” nature of the college game.

If he's having trouble with the physicality in the NCAA, how is he going to do in the NBA? Project or no project, it seems that he could use some extra time in Durham.

[mkirsh]

RE: Matt Hurt. He was always going to start. Somehow the announcers got it wrong. Not sure how. But K did NOT adjust his starting lineup in response to anything Keatts did or did not do.

Thanks for clarifying. It seemed very out of character for K to be reactive like that with the starting line up. But was there another line up change unrelated to State? I wonder what caused the announcing team to discuss this at such length?

[mkirsh]

For all the points posted, this was a solid and fun win and for more than one reason it was a victory that the team needed.

That being said, the win that I want is one where only a few points separate the teams when the buzzer sounds. This game was never in doubt with only 10 minutes played, so while it puts a spark of optimism back in the locker room (and in fandom), I will feel much better about us after seeing us play with poise in a closely won game. That is a game that this team needs to have happen, especially if we are to have any miraculous post season runs.

While I agree that this team needs to learn how to win close games, it also blew a 15 point first half lead against Notre Dame, so never letting State back in is also progress.

[Saratoga2]

One thing that caught my attention about Mark during the game was the fact that on four or five possessions, he did a good job of getting in position and grabbing a rebound. And then immediately lost it.

It looked very much like having soft hands and maybe not the best decision making after grabbing the ball. That seems like stuff that Nate could help him with. As good as Mark looked in this game, he could have been really dominating if he'd maintained control for about five more possessions. I'm keeping my fingers crossed. I'd love to see him clean that up and turn into a real force around the basket.

Big men can't bring the rebound down to chest height or lower, lest they be stripped. Easy thing to correct.