Coach K Succession discussion

[CDu]

Well, against Kansas in 2018, we had the ball and a three-point lead with under a minute to go. Probability of win must have been 0.90+.
And we would have won in OT, I believe, if not for that bogus block call against Wendell.

Agreed. Our two misses and their made 3 in the final minutes of regulation was a crazy sequence. And then the bad call in OT. Uggh. Further illustrating the point though that our 2015-2019 run is closer than some folks realize to our 1988-1992 run.

[TywinBlue]

W

"In 2018, we were a Grayson Allen short runner away from reaching the Final Four. Probably missed winning by a quarter of an inch..."

The shot bounced FIVE TIMES on the rim before falling off...arrghh !

Three years ago and the pain still sears my soul...

And no, the lambs have never stopped screaming, Clarice !

[Edouble]

Nothing too new to add.

But want to weigh in, if it helps anyone feel better, that I think often about our back to back 2017-18 and 2018-19 Elite Eight losses. They were razor thin close to being Final Fours.
It is painful to think about the wealth of talent on those two teams, in particular, and what could have been.

That and the surging 2020 team with a T. Jones point guard and an emerging (out of nowhere) Justin Robinson X-factor.

The program has been about as close as you can get to a Final Four, without nabbing one, over the past three seasons. I don't put much stock into the results we are seeing this year. The pandemic weighs heavy over the program, and I really couldn't care less about our win-loss record at this point.

[CDu]

Nothing too new to add.

But want to weigh in, if it helps anyone feel better, that I think often about our back to back 2017-18 and 2018-19 Elite Eight losses. They were razor thin close to being Final Fours.
It is painful to think about the wealth of talent on those two teams, in particular, and what could have been.

That and the surging 2020 team with a T. Jones point guard and an emerging (out of nowhere) Justin Robinson X-factor.

The program has been about as close as you can get to a Final Four, without nabbing one, over the past three seasons. I don't put much stock into the results we are seeing this year. The pandemic weighs heavy over the program, and I really couldn't care less about our win-loss record at this point.

Yeah, I'm certainly frustrated that we got no Final Fours in the previous 3 seasons despite really good/great teams. But we were SOOOOO close in 2018 and 2019, and we would have had a legitimate shot in 2020. Like you, I view this season (so far) as an aberrance due to the pandemic rather than a trend. And I expect next season to be a really really good team again.

And I'm not ruling out a crazy finish to this year, although it's certainly on the unlikely side given the performances so far and the limited time left.

[Steven43]

Worth noting that Coach K's "invincibility" in elite-8 games from 1986-1994 wasn't as clear-cut as it may seem. In 1990, we were a Christian Laettner turnaround from being eliminated in the Elite-8 by UConn. In 1992 we were a Christian Laettner turnaround from being eliminated by Kentucky.

Sounds like this Christian Laettner guy was pretty good.

[Billy Dat]

Does it have to be a Duke guy? I’d prefer to not hire someone if the coaching tree considering none of them have been great.

K has said he'd like it to be, but he has also said he'd stay out of it after making his thoughts known.

Duke's going to get a new AD soon. If it's someone from "the family" such as Mike Cragg, I'd think they will be more apt to keep the hire within the family. If not, then maybe not.

One thing to consider is how wrapped up K's whole family is within the program. Debbie Savarino has a full time job, Jaime and Chris Spatola are involved to various degrees. That will be a lot to untangle.

While I know that some of K's tree have said they don't want to follow the legend, I think it's the best shot any of them will ever get to coach a blue blood program so they should leap at the chance if it is offered. My $ is on Capel.

[Edouble]

K has said he'd like it to be, but he has also said he'd stay out of it after making his thoughts known.

Duke's going to get a new AD soon. If it's someone from "the family" such as Mike Cragg, I'd think they will be more apt to keep the hire within the family. If not, then maybe not.

One thing to consider is how wrapped up K's whole family is within the program. Debbie Savarino has a full time job, Jaime and Chris Spatola are involved to various degrees. That will be a lot to untangle.

While I know that some of K's tree have said they don't want to follow the legend, I think it's the best shot any of them will ever get to coach a blue blood program so they should leap at the chance if it is offered. My $ is on Capel.

My money is on Scheyer... it just seems like he is the one being groomed for the job. However, about 10 years ago it seemed like that was Collins, 15 years before that, Dawkins.

So who knows. If Coach K coaches another 5-6 years, another candidate could emerge.

[flyingdutchdevil]

My money is on Scheyer... it just seems like he is the one being groomed for the job. However, about 10 years ago it seemed like that was Collins, 15 years before that, Dawkins.

So who knows. If Coach K coaches another 5-6 years, another candidate could emerge.

Yeah...I think Scheyer as front runner may be recency bias.

I honestly have no idea who it will be. There isn't a "perfect" candidate out there, but there are a lot of good ones.

I know 2 things about the next coach. a) we would be affiliated with Duke (player, ex-assistant) and b) he will be younger than 55. Being younger than 55 means you have a runway for at least 10 years and hopefully 15.

That still leaves a lot of candidates.

[wsb3]

My money is on Scheyer... it just seems like he is the one being groomed for the job. However, about 10 years ago it seemed like that was Collins, 15 years before that, Dawkins.

So who knows. If Coach K coaches another 5-6 years, another candidate could emerge.

Good post. I was certain at one point it was going to be Collins. Probably a few of my posts from years back stating such.

[Steven43]

I know 2 things about the next coach. a) we would be affiliated with Duke (player, ex-assistant) and b) he will be younger than 55. Being younger than 55 means you have a runway for at least 10 years and hopefully 15.

That still leaves a lot of candidates.

Well, you just ruled out Snyder. If what you surmise is accurate I’m more confused than ever.

[Billy Dat]

My money is on Scheyer... it just seems like he is the one being groomed for the job.

Yeah...I think Scheyer as front runner may be recency bias.

I wonder if Duke would do what UNC did and give it to a guy with no head coaching experience...although I guess the BC game means he's 1-0.

[Bluedog]

I wonder if Duke would do what UNC did and give it to a guy with no head coaching experience...although I guess the BC game means he's 1-0.

I think Duke can choose who to give that win to...And it's Coach K, I'm fairly certain.

[Edouble]

Yeah...I think Scheyer as front runner may be recency bias.

I honestly have no idea who it will be. There isn't a "perfect" candidate out there, but there are a lot of good ones.

I know 2 things about the next coach. a) we would be affiliated with Duke (player, ex-assistant) and b) he will be younger than 55. Being younger than 55 means you have a runway for at least 10 years and hopefully 15.

That still leaves a lot of candidates.

Well, you just ruled out Snyder. If what you surmise is accurate I’m more confused than ever.

He also ruled out Brad Stevens, whom I believe is an extreme long shot, but he is clearly a favorite around here.

[Natty_B]

He also ruled out Brad Stevens, whom I believe is an extreme long shot, but he is clearly a favorite around here.

Zero chance it's not a Duke guy and I continue to believe in a sport that is predominantly Black that Duke will hire their first Black men's basketball coach. I think it's an important social statement that the University won't pass up. FYI I bet UNC does the same when Roy retires. That's why I think Amaker is MUCH more likely than say Scheyer.

In terms of the disappointing Kansas game discussed upthread the most annoying part to me is Malik Newman had literally the game of his life (32 points!!) and was promptly never heard from again. This is called pulling a Pervis Ellison.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Well, you just ruled out Snyder. If what you surmise is accurate I’m more confused than ever.

I've made it pretty clear that I think Snyder is a complete long shot. Hence, him being outside one of my two parameters is in line with what I've been discussing.

[LasVegas]

I hate the “It has to be a Duke guy” talk but it seems like that’s what K wants so that’s probably what we will get. More than likely, it won’t go well for a few years and we will be on to the next era of Duke basketball. People will be hesitant to admit that but that’s just how I see it. Duke needs a top 5 coach.

[JasonEvans]

Well, against Kansas in 2018, we had the ball and a three-point lead with under a minute to go. Probability of win must have been 0.90+.

Pomeroy says at that moment, we were 90.3% to win the game. Sigh... https://kenpom.com/winprob.php?g=6056&y=2018

[wavedukefan70s]

What i do not want to happen is for Coack K to coach to long. I played for the winningest highschool football coach in America.i watched him coach way longer than he should have.he was way past done when he was forced to go. I knew in my heart that he wouldnt be around long after he retired .he may have lived 2 or so years after.it absolutely killed him to have the game taken away from him. It was horrible to watch .I do not wish that to happen to any coach. Hopefully it won't and duke finds a good replacement. It may take a coach or two to achieve success.

[tommy]

Zero chance it's not a Duke guy and I continue to believe in a sport that is predominantly Black that Duke will hire their first Black men's basketball coach. I think it's an important social statement that the University won't pass up. FYI I bet UNC does the same when Roy retires. That's why I think Amaker is MUCH more likely than say Scheyer.

I totally agree with your belief that Duke will likely make that statement by hiring a highly qualified African-American coach who has earned the right to the position. I happen to think Jeff Capel is a lot more likely than Tommy Amaker, however, to get the job if he wants it.

In terms of the disappointing Kansas game discussed upthread the most annoying part to me is Malik Newman had literally the game of his life (32 points!!) and was promptly never heard from again. This is called pulling a Pervis Ellison.

It's also called pulling a Derrick Williams.

I hate the “It has to be a Duke guy” talk but it seems like that’s what K wants so that’s probably what we will get. More than likely, it won’t go well for a few years and we will be on to the next era of Duke basketball. People will be hesitant to admit that but that’s just how I see it. Duke needs a top 5 coach.

Care to offer which coaches you believe are "top 5" that you think would leave their current positions to take the Duke job if offered, and why they would want to make that move given how much success they have had and are having at their current positions?

[JasonEvans]

In terms of the disappointing Kansas game discussed upthread the most annoying part to me is Malik Newman had literally the game of his life (32 points!!) and was promptly never heard from again. This is called pulling a Pervis Ellison.

Pervis played 11 years in the NBA and had one season where he averaged 20ppg, 11rpg, and 2.7bpg. He was an outstanding college player, an All-American, and Metro Conference player of the year. He was the #1 pick in the NBA draft.

Having him play a relatively strong game against Duke in 1986 was nothing nothing nothing like what happened to us at the hands of Malik Newman, a guy who played in exactly 1 game (4 minutes played) in his NBA career.

It's also called pulling a Derrick Williams.

Not perfect, as Williams had a truly great season that year for Arizona, but a lot closer.