next season

[Acymetric]

Moore is playing like we thought he would. But he's a tweener at the NBA level and I'd be very surprised if he gets drafted in the second round (clearly, he's not a first rounder). His struggles with shooting are well documented.

That said, leaving Duke early and not getting drafted hasn't stopped the likes of quite a few Duke players in the last ~6-7 years.

I think Moore's decision will come down to the line-up next year. Will he be a starter? Or will he be a sixth/seventh man?

The question the last several years is less "where will they get drafted" and more "will returning raise or lower their value". Moore would have to have a breakout season next year for returning to raise his NBA value above where it is now. Another year similar or only slightly improved would lower it. Not saying he should definitely go or anything, but there is certainly reason to believe he might and that it might be the right decision for him.

This is why I keep arguing with people who want to assume all these pieces are coming back next year. What do they have to gain, stock-wise?

[Kedsy]

Looking at him as a lesser, yet still effective, version of someone like a Draymond Green when it comes to the NBA?

I understand you said lesser, but what makes Draymond so special is his assist rate (career assist rate of 24.6% in college). Henry's assist rate isn't bad for a big man, but it's still only 8.9% (lower than everybody on the team except for Baker, Brakefield, and Hurt). Frankly, if Jalen Johnson bulks up a little and learns to play better D, he'd be a better Draymond comp than Henry.

[CDu]

Moore is playing like we thought he would. But he's a tweener at the NBA level and I'd be very surprised if he gets drafted in the second round (clearly, he's not a first rounder). His struggles with shooting are well documented.

That said, leaving Duke early and not getting drafted hasn't stopped the likes of quite a few Duke players in the last ~6-7 years.

I think Moore's decision will come down to the line-up next year. Will he be a starter? Or will he be a sixth/seventh man?

I don't think Moore is actually a tweener at the next level. He's a wing who can defend either SG or SF. And part of what would make him a draft prospect in my "IF" scenario is that he has been shooting it REALLY well from 3 the past 4 games. If that continues and he finishes the year with a solid 3pt percentage, he is pretty much the epitome of the 3-and-D wing with his height, length, and physical tools.

Again, it's a big "IF". But if he keeps playing the way he's playing over the last two weeks, he's very much back on the draft radar this year.

To be clear, I don't think Moore will be going pro this year. But I won't take it off the table either.

That would be something, after the start of his season.

If that somehow does occur, we can also envision a scenario in which we have a very sparse backcourt. If, for example, Steward also goes pro, Goldwire doesn't come back, and Keels chooses another school. If all those things go against us, it would leave us with Roach, Baker, and Griffin on the perimeter. In that case, Coleman and/or Brakefield would almost have to play a fair amount of SF (Baldwin, if he comes to Duke, can supposedly play SF as well), with Griffin and/or Baker playing mostly at SG. Though if we really had only one true guard on the roster (can't imagine Roach could play 40mpg), I suspect Coach K would go fishing in the grad transfer pond.

I would be surprised if all of those things happened and we were left with just Roach and Griffin (Baker isn't a guard, and I'd not like to see him there; he's barely a wing) as options at guard. If we lose both Steward and Moore, I'd highly expect Keels to be on board. And if we lost multiple guys, I could easily see Goldwire returning to be the third guard. I think there are a lot of conditional probabilities in play, but I think we're really unlikely to be shorthanded at guard next year one way or the other. In the worst case, I agree that the grad transfer route is where we'd go to fill in the gaps rather than playing Brakefield or Coleman at SF and rolling with only one true guard.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I don't think Moore is actually a tweener at the next level. He's a wing who can defend either SG or SF. And part of what would make him a draft prospect in my "IF" scenario is that he has been shooting it REALLY well from 3 the past 4 games. If that continues and he finishes the year with a solid 3pt percentage, he is pretty much the epitome of the 3-and-D wing with his height, length, and physical tools.

Again, it's a big "IF". But if he keeps playing the way he's playing over the last two weeks, he's very much back on the draft radar this year.

To be clear, I don't think Moore will be going pro this year. But I won't take it off the table either.

Moore can't really guard faster players. That's why he's best suited to guard college 4s; strong enough to keep them out of the post, fast enough to stay in front of them. I'm not sure he can guard the NBA SG position.

I think there is a zero chance (or near zero) that Moore plays in the NBA next year. But I agree with your overall conclusion that he may not be at Duke next year...

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

I understand you said lesser, but what makes Draymond so special is his assist rate (career assist rate of 24.6% in college). Henry's assist rate isn't bad for a big man, but it's still only 8.9% (lower than everybody on the team except for Baker, Brakefield, and Hurt). Frankly, if Jalen Johnson bulks up a little and learns to play better D, he'd be a better Draymond comp than Henry.

Draymond is extremely alert and has great instincts and court awareness. Jalen looks lost on the court. Draymond plays with intensity and a smile on his face, and he makes his teammates better. Jalen? Not so much.

Not a good comp.

[scottdude8]

I appreciate the difficulty of finding good comps, but Blair was something like 30 to 50 pounds heavier than Coleman is. Now that was a "thick" dude. I don't really think there is much of a comparison between him and Coleman in terms of their play style or what they bring to the table.

Henry has only played 38 minutes, so his stats can't tell us much, but so far his DR% is only 12.7%. That's a SF number (less than Wendell Moore and about the same as DJ Steward). DeJuan Blair was a load in college; I believe his DR% both years was significantly above 20%.

I'm definitely stretching/projecting with my comp, and as I said I think Coleman could be a poor man's Blair. But you have to admit that, at least over the last few games, their playstyles have looked similar, no? Coleman is a smaller guy that's defending much bigger players, but holding his own given his strength. Even though his size is probably more of a SF, his body is more of a PF, a la Blair. And considering Coleman is only a freshman, I meant to imply he could develop into a player like Blair. There's no reason to believe he can't put more weight on his frame with a real Duke offseason.

Obviously there are a lot of caveats there. But I think that there are similarities in those guys' bodies and games that could come into clearer picture a year or two down the line. Coleman is going to be a bit of a player who is too big to be a SF but undersized as a PF, but has a unique build and athleticism that can find its way onto the court. I don't think the comparison is that much of a stretch from the eye-test alone.

[CDu]

I'm definitely stretching/projecting with my comp, and as I said I think Coleman could be a poor man's Blair. But you have to admit that, at least over the last few games, their playstyles have looked similar, no? Coleman is a smaller guy that's defending much bigger players, but holding his own given his strength. Even though his size is probably more of a SF, his body is more of a PF, a la Blair. And considering Coleman is only a freshman, I meant to imply he could develop into a player like Blair. There's no reason to believe he can't put more weight on his frame with a real Duke offseason.

Obviously there are a lot of caveats there. But I think that there are similarities in those guys' bodies and games that could come into clearer picture a year or two down the line. Coleman is going to be a bit of a player who is too big to be a SF but undersized as a PF, but has a unique build and athleticism that can find its way onto the court. I don't think the comparison is that much of a stretch from the eye-test alone.

Eh, I don’t see much stylistically similar between the two. Blair was not nearly as mobile, but was much more of a powerhouse in the paint than Coleman. Heck Blair was really more of a C than a PF with his weight and super-long arms, whereas Coleman is a shifty undersized PF. There are a ton of short PFs, I am sure we can find a better comp. In fact, I would suggest “poor man’s Aamir Simms” as a starting point.

[throatybeard]

I'm a thick tank now, so in a way, I'm a poor man's Roach.

Not bad for a 44yo herbivore.

[Acymetric]

I'm a thick tank now, so in a way, I'm a poor man's Roach.

Not bad for a 44yo herbivore.

Can't spork, but this is the gift that keeps on giving.

[SkyBrickey]

Next year we should have a core group of Roach, Baker, Griffin, Brakefield, Coleman, Banchero, and Williams. That's a very solid 7 that could win a lot of games in the ACC.

Now layer in likely returnees Steward and Moore, and likely recruits Baldwin Jr and Keels, and that may just be the magical mix of talented veterans plus superstar frosh that could win another natty. I would be very, very happy with Baldwin Jr. and 2 out of 3 of Steward/Moore/Keels. Would also be happy to have Goldwire's toughness and experience back for a 5th year to backstop the younger guys. And of course there's still a chance Hurt returns for another season.

I haven't given up on this year's team, but even if we don't make the tourney, we have a lot to be excited about for next year. Griffin, Banchero and Baldwin all seem like the kind of multi-dimensional and multi-positional players who can fit in well with a variety of lineups.

[Kedsy]

Draymond is extremely alert and has great instincts and court awareness. Jalen looks lost on the court. Draymond plays with intensity and a smile on his face, and he makes his teammates better. Jalen? Not so much.

Not a good comp.

Here are the statistical profiles for Jalen so far this season and Draymond as a sophomore at Michigan State:

Player				eFG	pts p40	ftr	OR%	DR%	Asst%	TO%	stl%	blk%	pf p40	PER	oRtg	dRtg
Draymond Green (so)		52.8%	15.5	48.3%	10.4%	24.6%	23.3%	16.0%	2.9%	4.1%	4.7	24.9	117.6	89.7
Jalen Johnson (fr)		57.0%	21.2	30.8%	8.2%	26.3%	21.0%	20.7%	2.9%	6.2%	4.3	26.3	106.1	97.7

If Jalen gained 10 pounds, cut down on his turnovers and got to the line more, they'd be practically the same player. Actually, since Jalen shoots better and scores more (and is two inches taller), if he did those other things he'd have the superior statistical profile. And if he does all this while "look[ing] lost on the court," imagine how good he'll be when the game slows down for him. Jalen also has to improve his defensive footwork, but if I'm an NBA gm who doesn't care how much the player smiles, the Draymond comp would intrigue me.

[tommy]

Next year we should have a core group of Roach, Baker, Griffin, Brakefield, Coleman, Banchero, and Williams. That's a very solid 7 that could win a lot of games in the ACC.

Now layer in likely returnees Steward and Moore, and likely recruits Baldwin Jr and Keels, and that may just be the magical mix of talented veterans plus superstar frosh that could win another natty. I would be very, very happy with Baldwin Jr. and 2 out of 3 of Steward/Moore/Keels. Would also be happy to have Goldwire's toughness and experience back for a 5th year to backstop the younger guys. And of course there's still a chance Hurt returns for another season.

I haven't given up on this year's team, but even if we don't make the tourney, we have a lot to be excited about for next year. Griffin, Banchero and Baldwin all seem like the kind of multi-dimensional and multi-positional players who can fit in well with a variety of lineups.

I agree. That group will have a real opportunity to show that this year was just a blip.

Unfortunately for him, if that group fully materializes, the guy who is likely to have a real hard time getting quality minutes is going to be Brakefield. Unless he really improves several aspects of his game and forces his way onto the court, it just seems like there's too many more talented guys, and he's gonna get squeezed. Baker too. There's always room for a consistent deadeye shooter on any team. But he has to be that, which he has not shown thus far in his career. If he doesn't bring it next year, he may really see his minutes decline too.

And while that team that you outline, potentially eleven guys -- although Keels is far from a given at this point -- would be really, really strong, it wouldn't be DBR if we didn't worry about the NEXT year. How many of those eleven would we be confident would be on the squad in 22-23?? Not all that many. If there are scholarships available, I'd like to see us add another developmental-type player to the mix. Or at least try to.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

Here are the statistical profiles for Jalen so far this season and Draymond as a sophomore at Michigan State:

Player				eFG	pts p40	ftr	OR%	DR%	Asst%	TO%	stl%	blk%	pf p40	PER	oRtg	dRtg
Draymond Green (so)		52.8%	15.5	48.3%	10.4%	24.6%	23.3%	16.0%	2.9%	4.1%	4.7	24.9	117.6	89.7
Jalen Johnson (fr)		57.0%	21.2	30.8%	8.2%	26.3%	21.0%	20.7%	2.9%	6.2%	4.3	26.3	106.1	97.7

If Jalen gained 10 pounds, cut down on his turnovers and got to the line more, they'd be practically the same player. Actually, since Jalen shoots better and scores more (and is two inches taller), if he did those other things he'd have the superior statistical profile. And if he does all this while "look[ing] lost on the court," imagine how good he'll be when the game slows down for him. Jalen also has to improve his defensive footwork, but if I'm an NBA gm who doesn't care how much the player smiles, the Draymond comp would intrigue me.

You can show your statistics, but I don't think Jalen will ever approach being "practically the same player" as Draymond. There's a lot more to the story of Draymond's sophomore season than his individual statistics:

"As a sophomore in 2009–10, Green appeared in 37 games with three starting assignments as he averaged 9.9 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.2 steals per game. He became the first player in Michigan State history to be named Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year, winning the award by unanimous vote. He also earned third-team All-Big Ten honors and was the recipient of MSU's Most Improved Player, Chairman of the Boards and Antonio Smith Glue and Guts awards. Twice, Green scored a season-high 19 points, on December 10 against Oakland and December 30 against Texas–Arlington. He also had seven games with double-doubles, including 17 points and 16 rebounds on February 6 against Illinois."

And his team's performance that year:

"The 2009–10 Michigan State Spartans men's basketball team represented Michigan State University in the 2009–10 NCAA Division I men's basketball season. Their head coach was Tom Izzo who was in his 15th year. The Spartans played their home games at the Breslin Center in East Lansing, Michigan and were members of the Big Ten Conference. MSU finished the season 28–9, 14–4 in Big Ten play to earn a share of the Big Ten regular season championship for the 12th time in school history. They lost to Minnesota in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. The Spartans received an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament as a No. 5 seed, their 13th consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament under Izzo. They defeated New Mexico State, Maryland, Northern Iowa, and Tennessee to advance to the Final Four. In the Final Four, the Spartans' sixth trip to the Final Four under Izzo, they lost to Butler."

I certainly wish that Jalen and Duke's 2020-21 season could end up as positive as Draymond's 2009-10 sophomore year at MSU.

I'm sure we both agree that we loved Duke's 2009-10 season!

[CDu]

You can show your statistics, but I don't think Jalen will ever approach being "practically the same player" as Draymond. There's a lot more to the story of Draymond's sophomore season than his individual statistics:

"As a sophomore in 2009–10, Green appeared in 37 games with three starting assignments as he averaged 9.9 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.2 steals per game. He became the first player in Michigan State history to be named Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year, winning the award by unanimous vote. He also earned third-team All-Big Ten honors and was the recipient of MSU's Most Improved Player, Chairman of the Boards and Antonio Smith Glue and Guts awards. Twice, Green scored a season-high 19 points, on December 10 against Oakland and December 30 against Texas–Arlington. He also had seven games with double-doubles, including 17 points and 16 rebounds on February 6 against Illinois."

And his team's performance that year:

"The 2009–10 Michigan State Spartans men's basketball team represented Michigan State University in the 2009–10 NCAA Division I men's basketball season. Their head coach was Tom Izzo who was in his 15th year. The Spartans played their home games at the Breslin Center in East Lansing, Michigan and were members of the Big Ten Conference. MSU finished the season 28–9, 14–4 in Big Ten play to earn a share of the Big Ten regular season championship for the 12th time in school history. They lost to Minnesota in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. The Spartans received an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament as a No. 5 seed, their 13th consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament under Izzo. They defeated New Mexico State, Maryland, Northern Iowa, and Tennessee to advance to the Final Four. In the Final Four, the Spartans' sixth trip to the Final Four under Izzo, they lost to Butler."

I certainly wish that Jalen and Duke's 2020-21 season could end up as positive as Draymond's 2009-10 sophomore year at MSU.

I'm sure we both agree that we loved Duke's 2009-10 season!

Yeah, Johnson is much more in the Ben Simmons mold than Draymond Green.

[BlueDevilStop]

As excited as I am to see the hyper-talented Freshmen coming in, I am equally as excited to see what the Sophomores on next year's team look like. Will be a very good group. And if Junior Wendell Moore (assuming he is back) could turn into what he was so widely expected to be a Sophomore, look out.

[Edouble]

Yeah, Johnson is much more in the Ben Simmons mold than Draymond Green.

On his best days, Ben Simmons with a better shot (hell, my grandma has a better shot). On his worst days, Kyle Kuzma.

[Kedsy]

You can show your statistics, but I don't think Jalen will ever approach being "practically the same player" as Draymond. There's a lot more to the story of Draymond's sophomore season than his individual statistics:

"As a sophomore in 2009–10, Green appeared in 37 games with three starting assignments as he averaged 9.9 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.2 steals per game. He became the first player in Michigan State history to be named Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year, winning the award by unanimous vote. He also earned third-team All-Big Ten honors and was the recipient of MSU's Most Improved Player, Chairman of the Boards and Antonio Smith Glue and Guts awards. Twice, Green scored a season-high 19 points, on December 10 against Oakland and December 30 against Texas–Arlington. He also had seven games with double-doubles, including 17 points and 16 rebounds on February 6 against Illinois."

And his team's performance that year:

"The 2009–10 Michigan State Spartans men's basketball team represented Michigan State University in the 2009–10 NCAA Division I men's basketball season. Their head coach was Tom Izzo who was in his 15th year. The Spartans played their home games at the Breslin Center in East Lansing, Michigan and were members of the Big Ten Conference. MSU finished the season 28–9, 14–4 in Big Ten play to earn a share of the Big Ten regular season championship for the 12th time in school history. They lost to Minnesota in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. The Spartans received an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament as a No. 5 seed, their 13th consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament under Izzo. They defeated New Mexico State, Maryland, Northern Iowa, and Tennessee to advance to the Final Four. In the Final Four, the Spartans' sixth trip to the Final Four under Izzo, they lost to Butler."

I certainly wish that Jalen and Duke's 2020-21 season could end up as positive as Draymond's 2009-10 sophomore year at MSU.

I'm sure we both agree that we loved Duke's 2009-10 season!

Yes, I agree about Duke's 2010 season, but I don't see how the rest of it has anything to do with Jalen Johnson's NBA draft credentials or similarity in productivity to Draymond Green. I do find it odd that you denigrate my use of statistics and then quote a passage that consists mostly of statistics. And team performance has so many components beyond the control of an individual player that I don't get the relevance at all. Maybe this is getting far afield, since the original question (to which I responded) was whether Henry Coleman could develop into the next Draymond Green, so I'll agree to disagree and move on.

[CDu]

On his best days, Ben Simmons with a better shot (hell, my grandma has a better shot). On his worst days, Kyle Kuzma.

Yeah, statistically his per-40 minute numbers are VERY similar to Simmons' at LSU. As you mentioned, better 3pt shooting for Johnson, and Johnson is a better shotblocker. But Johnson is not quite as prolific a passer and is more foul and turnover prone. Stylistically, they are similar, though Johnson is obviously not as consistently present/effective at it as Simmons was (which is why Johnson's draft stock won't be quite in the same stratosphere as Simmons' unless he has a great finish to the season).

[Billy Dat]

Duke will rise again and it all starts with the recruiting class the Blue Devils are expected to enroll
Coach K could have up to three top-10 prospects in the same year
-Gary Parrish
https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba...ted-to-enroll/

[SkyBrickey]

And while that team that you outline, potentially eleven guys -- although Keels is far from a given at this point -- would be really, really strong, it wouldn't be DBR if we didn't worry about the NEXT year. How many of those eleven would we be confident would be on the squad in 22-23?? Not all that many. If there are scholarships available, I'd like to see us add another developmental-type player to the mix. Or at least try to.

Yeah, it's not crazy to think that Coleman and Brakefield could be our only two returning scholarship players after next year, but hopefully Roach, Keels (if we can land him), Williams and possibly a Steward or a Moore would also come back. I expect no matter what our coaching staff is gearing up for a big class of 2022 recruits.