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Thread: next season

  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Nothing would surprise me, but I'd expect at least Roach to be back. Steward feels more iffy, if only because he's shot it a bit better from the perimeter. Neither kid came in with one-and-done type of hype, so while I can't say for sure their mindset it would be surprising if they did think of themselves as likely one-and-dones. If I had to guess, both will be back. But I wouldn't be completely shocked if any player leaves.
    The bigger concern is not OAD to the NBA but transferring out for a better fit or a different college environment. None of the Freshman truly got a Duke experience as a player or student and I wonder if that will come into play. Roach is not an NBA player but could be a very good college player - Steward could sneak into the second round- Hurt is a second rounder who needs to decide if he wants to one day be ACC player of the year or hope he play enough D and be a sharpshooter from the NBA three to have any career in the NBA- but may be better suited to Europe. Johnson is a first round project - but certainly NBA material- and Moore is going to have to work on his shot and handle to have any chance of playing in the NBA- both challenging tasks. The NBA is not for everyone. All three Duke players that left last year cannot even get on the floor in NBA competition yet would be dominating in the ACC this year.

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    The bigger concern is not OAD to the NBA but transferring out for a better fit or a different college environment. None of the Freshman truly got a Duke experience as a player or student and I wonder if that will come into play. Roach is not an NBA player but could be a very good college player - Steward could sneak into the second round- Hurt is a second rounder who needs to decide if he wants to one day be ACC player of the year or hope he play enough D and be a sharpshooter from the NBA three to have any career in the NBA- but may be better suited to Europe. Johnson is a first round project - but certainly NBA material- and Moore is going to have to work on his shot and handle to have any chance of playing in the NBA- both challenging tasks. The NBA is not for everyone. All three Duke players that left last year cannot even get on the floor in NBA competition yet would be dominating in the ACC this year.
    And... we all know that any sort of rumors about transfers will result in a sound pummeling from mods.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Nothing would surprise me, but I'd expect at least Roach to be back. Steward feels more iffy, if only because he's shot it a bit better from the perimeter. Neither kid came in with one-and-done type of hype, so while I can't say for sure their mindset it would be surprising if they did think of themselves as likely one-and-dones. If I had to guess, both will be back. But I wouldn't be completely shocked if any player leaves.
    Oh I have definitely staked out land on Steward Island but I don't see any way he is going pro this year. I'm a big fan and super excited about his future but he is a smallish guard with merely okay handles and with subpar court vision at this point. And I (maybe) irrationally see his ceiling as Devonte Graham, so obviously I love the kid. I just think this is an honest appraisal of where he stands right now. He is very athletic and if he shot 45% from 3 then he would be a pro. But where he is. I think Roach is going to be good but has very limited athleticism. I think he is a 3-4-year player. I like him as well and I think he can be a borderline all-conference guard someday but I don't see him fitting in the league now (maybe ever). Small guard, okay shooter, okay handles and decent court vision isn't getting anyone a paycheck. This isn't what he will be in the future but I do think it's what he is now and I don't think he's ever going to be blindingly athletic.

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    The bigger concern is not OAD to the NBA but transferring out for a better fit or a different college environment. None of the Freshman truly got a Duke experience as a player or student and I wonder if that will come into play. Roach is not an NBA player but could be a very good college player - Steward could sneak into the second round- Hurt is a second rounder who needs to decide if he wants to one day be ACC player of the year or hope he play enough D and be a sharpshooter from the NBA three to have any career in the NBA- but may be better suited to Europe. Johnson is a first round project - but certainly NBA material- and Moore is going to have to work on his shot and handle to have any chance of playing in the NBA- both challenging tasks. The NBA is not for everyone. All three Duke players that left last year cannot even get on the floor in NBA competition yet would be dominating in the ACC this year.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    And... we all know that any sort of rumors about transfers will result in a sound pummeling from mods.
    Yes. As it should. But I don’t think dukelifer’s post was anywhere close to rumor-mongering. I actually agree with most everything he stated. I’m not “feeling” (fwtw) any transfer vibes this year. Don’t think that will be an issue. Guys leaving early? Definitely possible. I think it’s all but a foregone conclusion JJ will go. And he should. The two question marks are indeed Steward and Hurt. If they return, we have a really solid team next year. If either or, God forbid, both decide to go it will take us down a few notches in terms of potential next season. Like dukelifer stated, both are no better than 2nd round projects at this point. And as we’ve seen recently, that’s often enough incentive for some young men to leave. But there’s still games to be played this season, so I’m hopeful none of these players are looking that far ahead yet.

    Go Duke!!!

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    Yes. As it should. But I don’t think dukelifer’s post was anywhere close to rumor-mongering. I actually agree with most everything he stated. I’m not “feeling” (fwtw) any transfer vibes this year. Don’t think that will be an issue. Guys leaving early? Definitely possible. I think it’s all but a foregone conclusion JJ will go. And he should. The two question marks are indeed Steward and Hurt. If they return, we have a really solid team next year. If either or, God forbid, both decide to go it will take us down a few notches in terms of potential next season. Like dukelifer stated, both are no better than 2nd round projects at this point. And as we’ve seen recently, that’s often enough incentive for some young men to leave. But there’s still games to be played this season, so I’m hopeful none of these players are looking that far ahead yet.

    Go Duke!!!
    Didn't mean to suggest that dukelifer was crossing that line. Just a reminder to everyone - especially some of the newer, very negative posters that have popped up as late.

    Statistically it is likely we get a transfer after this season. But it won't be discussed here until after it is public.

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    And... we all know that any sort of rumors about transfers will result in a sound pummeling from mods.
    Yes- this is a general concern regarding the recent changes and proposed changes to transfer rules. Also this could both help and hurt a place like Duke.

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    Yes- this is a general concern regarding the recent changes and proposed changes to transfer rules. Also this could both help and hurt a place like Duke.
    Agreed. Also, the extra eligibility year for this season will create complicated log jams on some rosters. It will be awhile before we get "normal" again as a sport.

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    My (likely) unpopular opinion for next year is that we need to get in on the grad transfer market for a point guard or combo guard. I could see Jeremy Roach greatly improving in his second year, but I believe we need insurance in case that doesn't happen. We'll be losing Goldwire, so unless we plan on playing Michael Savarino rotation minutes, I think getting another veteran guard could pay off.
    it was already mentioned, but there is no guarantee JGold is leaving. He's a great defensive player, and is acceptable at a few things on offense. But if he wants to pursue a career as a coach, hanging around Coach K for another year could really pay off.

    Quote Originally Posted by troach42 View Post
    For those of you thinking about next year's lineup being a little older and more mature with Roach and Steward in the backcourt for a second year, I'd ask you this - what makes you think either (or both) of those two will be back next year? Haven't we already seen over the past 5+ years that it doesn't matter how effective you are during the season, or whether you are guaranteed a spot in the first round, kids (generally) leave early when they plan to leave early. And you'd have to believe that both Roach and Steward came into this season with the realistic expectation of this being their only year at Duke. Not saying that they're leaving, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if at least one of them did.
    again, already pointed out by others, but Roach is certainly not on anybody's draft boards, and Steward was on some earlier in the year, but appears to either not be on any or only on a couple as a 2nd rounder. I am much higher on DJ's potential than Roach's, but even so, unless he develops into a dead-eye 3pt shooter it's hard to see how he fills a role in the NBA.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by DukieInBrasil View Post
    it was already mentioned, but there is no guarantee JGold is leaving. He's a great defensive player, and is acceptable at a few things on offense. But if he wants to pursue a career as a coach, hanging around Coach K for another year could really pay off.


    again, already pointed out by others, but Roach is certainly not on anybody's draft boards, and Steward was on some earlier in the year, but appears to either not be on any or only on a couple as a 2nd rounder. I am much higher on DJ's potential than Roach's, but even so, unless he develops into a dead-eye 3pt shooter it's hard to see how he fills a role in the NBA.
    Not only his shooting and his ability to dish need to improve. But it's his body. How many 165 pound guys are there in the NBA? Not many. DJ needs to work on his body. Hopefully some will be a natural filling out, though he has a narrow frame, and some is going to be on him to add muscle.

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    Not only his shooting and his ability to dish need to improve. But it's his body. How many 165 pound guys are there in the NBA? Not many. DJ needs to work on his body. Hopefully some will be a natural filling out, though he has a narrow frame, and some is going to be on him to add muscle.
    His height and weight could be acceptable if he was in the upper <1% of quickness, along the lines of Iverson. Really, DJ needs to be either hyper-elite at one (or more) skill(s), like 3pt shooting, or well above-average in multiple skills to make the NBA with his frame. So far, DJ has been a decent college player, in fact quite good as far as Fr. go, but he hasn't displayed a single elite skill yet. If he was a defensive savant with above average shooting skills, he could find a home in the NBA, but he hasn't shown that yet either. The season's not over, and he can still show substantial improvement as a shooter, ball-handler or defender, but that would also be a very rare mid-season skill growth spurt. I think he could be an exceptional player for Duke next year...

  11. #31
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    I’ve beaten this drum many times before, but the answer to the question of whether a player should go is not “could they step onto an NBA court right now?” but rather “how much do they stand to gain by returning?” and “will they earn a second contract after their rookie deal expires?” Steward is not going to get taller. Saying he should stay because he’s only 6’1 or 6’2 is a flawed argument, unless you think he’s going to grow in the next year. For the guys that left last year, we won’t know if it was the right decision until two or three years from now when it comes time for them to sign their next deals. If they don’t get a deal and wind up out of the league like William Avery or Trevon Duval, then you could say they should have stayed and put themselves in a better chance to succeed. If they sign big deals like Gary Trent is about to do, then it was the right decision. It doesn’t matter that Trent spent his first season in the G league, he’s in a better position now than if he had stayed and “lost” a year of NBA salary. Maybe staying another year would have elevated his draft stock, but to that I would say a.) maybe it wouldn’t, and b.) the odds of significantly climbing in the draft are low. Saying a player should stay because it would make Duke better is a selfish argument (I don’t mean that personally, just that it’s not the viewpoint of the player).

    I don’t think Steward should go, because I think he’d be out of the league in two years. By staying I think he’d be in a position where a team that did draft him would be more committed to giving him a chance, and he’d be more likely to be competitive against G league opponents which he is not right now. So I agree with most of you, but not for the same reasons. And I’ve been wrong before. Some guys really do enjoy college and stay for that reason, like Grayson did twice, and that makes everybody happy.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by dm9e24 View Post
    Our two OAD's from last year went in to 2nd round. Not even one of the top 30 players in the draft. Ten years ago they are in uniforms last night. OAD's have changed. K has done a remarkable job considering he pretty much has a different roster every October with one year to bring it all together. This year's freshman class has one OAD, who doesn't come close to matching the 2nd round numbers and consistency that Vernon gave us last year. Will never know how this team would have done in a normal year.
    That being said, I don't see us being .500 in February 2022.
    Disagree. In 2010, Derrick Favors went third in the draft.

    10 years ago Vernon is a first round pick.
    Hard at work making beautiful things.

  13. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    My (likely) unpopular opinion for next year is that we need to get in on the grad transfer market for a point guard or combo guard. I could see Jeremy Roach greatly improving in his second year, but I believe we need insurance in case that doesn't happen. We'll be losing Goldwire, so unless we plan on playing Michael Savarino rotation minutes, I think getting another veteran guard could pay off.
    I think there’s a lot of merit to that. Preferably needs to be a taller guard to pick up switches on ball screens and to give some resistance to ball denial from the wing. I love the guys we have, but unless you can really play zone—well man defense just kills Duke w bully ball drives and pull-ups

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by devilirium View Post
    I think there’s a lot of merit to that. Preferably needs to be a taller guard to pick up switches on ball screens and to give some resistance to ball denial from the wing. I love the guys we have, but unless you can really play zone—well man defense just kills Duke w bully ball drives and pull-ups
    Actually, I don't think guard length and physicality has been our problem at all. Roach, Goldwire, and Moore are pretty stout physically and aren't getting bullied by any guards in college, and Moore and Steward are plenty long to defend guards.

    Our bigger issue defensively has been a lack of defensive awareness across the board, along with bigs who aren't great at defending on the perimeter. Some of the lack of awareness may be a function of new faces and changing defensive strategies multiple times this year. Some of it is that we don't have a ton of great defenders. Goldwire is certainly pesky on the perimeter, Moore is versatile although probably better against bigs than littles, Johnson is good at getting steals and blocks, and Williams is a shotchanger. But Hurt, Roach, Steward, Brakefield, and Tape are probably hurt the defense overall (Johnson might be as well depending on his awareness). Coleman might have some defensive value, but until the UNC game he's played minimally.

    I'm interested to see the direction the team goes moving forward this season. Coach K is a legend, of course, but this is probably the most challenging coaching job he's had in over a decade. Between the roster turnover, the youth, the lack of multiple one-and-done talents, and the pandemic ruining preseason prep, he's got a lot on his hands. Now, he's got to get the team to come together quickly ahead of a fairly tough back end of the schedule to salvage the season.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    I’ve beaten this drum many times before, but the answer to the question of whether a player should go is not “could they step onto an NBA court right now?” but rather “how much do they stand to gain by returning?” and “will they earn a second contract after their rookie deal expires?” Steward is not going to get taller. Saying he should stay because he’s only 6’1 or 6’2 is a flawed argument, unless you think he’s going to grow in the next year. For the guys that left last year, we won’t know if it was the right decision until two or three years from now when it comes time for them to sign their next deals. If they don’t get a deal and wind up out of the league like William Avery or Trevon Duval, then you could say they should have stayed and put themselves in a better chance to succeed. If they sign big deals like Gary Trent is about to do, then it was the right decision. It doesn’t matter that Trent spent his first season in the G league, he’s in a better position now than if he had stayed and “lost” a year of NBA salary. Maybe staying another year would have elevated his draft stock, but to that I would say a.) maybe it wouldn’t, and b.) the odds of significantly climbing in the draft are low. Saying a player should stay because it would make Duke better is a selfish argument (I don’t mean that personally, just that it’s not the viewpoint of the player).

    I don’t think Steward should go, because I think he’d be out of the league in two years. By staying I think he’d be in a position where a team that did draft him would be more committed to giving him a chance, and he’d be more likely to be competitive against G league opponents which he is not right now. So I agree with most of you, but not for the same reasons. And I’ve been wrong before. Some guys really do enjoy college and stay for that reason, like Grayson did twice, and that makes everybody happy.
    Yes Yes Yes. 100% agree here. This isn't about whether or not Roach or Steward can play in the league or stick in the league (or even get drafted). These kids are making a decision about their careers. They love the game of basketball and perhaps want to make a living playing it. The dream scenario is the NBA. But that isn't likely in the cards for most of the kids in the NCAA (hell - you could argue that this year's team doesn't have a single NBA player on it, and I wouldn't fight you over that statement). Staying at Duke another year may increase the chance of earning a big(ger) salary in professional basketball, or it may not. Earning ANY salary from playing basketball may be more valuable to any of these kids than staying in college for another year.

    We as fans have a tendency sometimes to look at these kids and imagine how amazing it must be to play at Duke, and how it factors into their decision about their future whether or not Duke basketball will be a National Title contender next season. That doesn't matter a lick. And it shouldn't.

    I don't know what Hurt, Steward, Johnson, or Roach is thinking about where they will be playing basketball in 2022. I feel VERY confident that not a single one of those guys will be playing in the NBA next year. But I'm equally as confident that this fact won't make a lick of difference in their deciding whether to stay at Duke for 2022 or leave to start a pro career (somewhere...).

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by troach42 View Post
    Yes Yes Yes. 100% agree here. This isn't about whether or not Roach or Steward can play in the league or stick in the league (or even get drafted). These kids are making a decision about their careers. They love the game of basketball and perhaps want to make a living playing it. The dream scenario is the NBA. But that isn't likely in the cards for most of the kids in the NCAA (hell - you could argue that this year's team doesn't have a single NBA player on it, and I wouldn't fight you over that statement). Staying at Duke another year may increase the chance of earning a big(ger) salary in professional basketball, or it may not. Earning ANY salary from playing basketball may be more valuable to any of these kids than staying in college for another year.

    We as fans have a tendency sometimes to look at these kids and imagine how amazing it must be to play at Duke, and how it factors into their decision about their future whether or not Duke basketball will be a National Title contender next season. That doesn't matter a lick. And it shouldn't.

    I don't know what Hurt, Steward, Johnson, or Roach is thinking about where they will be playing basketball in 2022. I feel VERY confident that not a single one of those guys will be playing in the NBA next year. But I'm equally as confident that this fact won't make a lick of difference in their deciding whether to stay at Duke for 2022 or leave to start a pro career (somewhere...).
    If Jalen Johnson isn't on an NBA roster next season then some NBA team will have wasted a lottery pick.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    If Jalen Johnson isn't on an NBA roster next season then some NBA team will have wasted a lottery pick.
    He'll be on a roster. Probably, though no sure thing, as a lottery pick. Jalen's athleticism, passing, and ability to grab-and-go are absolutely there. But that jumpshot is going to have to be remade, or they'll sag off him in the NBA and dare him to shoot even moreso than defenses are doing in college. If he can't correct his form and consistently make jumpshots, his career will fall short of what teams hope and expect from a lottery pick.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    If they sign big deals like Gary Trent is about to do, then it was the right decision. It doesn’t matter that Trent spent his first season in the G league, he’s in a better position now than if he had stayed and “lost” a year of NBA salary. Maybe staying another year would have elevated his draft stock, but to that I would say a.) maybe it wouldn’t, and b.) the odds of significantly climbing in the draft are low. Saying a player should stay because it would make Duke better is a selfish argument (I don’t mean that personally, just that it’s not the viewpoint of the player).
    I know you were not addressing it, but I think there is a really interesting argument about Gary Trent's NBA draft decision.

    Now, the impossible thing to figure out is what his draft stock would have been in the 2019 draft. He would have played that season with Zion, RJ, Cam, and Tre. His outside shooting would have been a huge boost to that team and it is not at all hard to see them winning a national title with him on the team. I think he would have improved his stock (and maybe hurt Cam's stock as I think Cam would have seen somewhat reduced minutes and certainly fewer scoring opportunities). For the sake of argument, lets say he would have played his way to be the #20 pick in the draft in the 2019 draft.

    Here are Gary's salaries he has earned thus far as a 2018 2nd rounder versus what he would make if he had been the #20 pick in the 2019 draft

    2018-19 -- $838k vs. no salary
    2019-20 -- $1.41m vs. $2.58m
    2020-21 -- $1.66m vs. $2.71m
    Totals --- $3.90m vs. $5.29m

    So far, despite playing 3 years versus 2, Gary would make far more by staying in school for an extra year because his per year salary is vastly higher. But, the question becomes what happens to him after this season. Gary will certainly get a significant new contract. I think Seth Curry is a really good comp for Gary -- sweet shooting SGs who play solid D but aren't doing a lot more than shoot on offense. Seth signed a 4 year, $32 mil contract a year and a half ago. Gary is a little younger and there has been some salary inflation, so I am going to project Gary getting a 4 year, $40 mil deal this off season.

    Suddenly, the decision to turn pro tilts in a big way.

    2018-19 -- $838k vs. no salary
    2019-20 -- $1.41m vs. $2.58m
    2020-21 -- $1.66m vs. $2.71m
    2021-22 -- $10.0m** vs. $2.84m
    2022-23 -- $10.0m** vs. $4.38m
    Totals --- $23.9m** vs. $12.51m
    ** - projected 4 year, $40 mil contract

    The fact that teams get an extra year of control under a 1st round rookie contract versus a 2nd round deal is a big deal here. And, obviously, this is a very flexible comparison because we don't know where Gary would have been drafted in 2019. If he went higher in the 2019 draft -- like if he went in Cam's spot at #10 -- his annual salaries would be almost double what they would have been if he was the #20 pick. And then there is the uncertainty of how well the pro career would go. Gary's has gone about as well as anyone could have projected. If he was getting less opportunity of hitting his 3s a little bit less often, he could be looking at a pretty modest second contract.

    I'm not sure if any of this post is worth anything... so speculative... but I took the time to look into it so I might as well post it.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Actually, I don't think guard length and physicality has been our problem at all. Roach, Goldwire, and Moore are pretty stout physically and aren't getting bullied by any guards in college, and Moore and Steward are plenty long to defend guards.

    Our bigger issue defensively has been a lack of defensive awareness across the board, along with bigs who aren't great at defending on the perimeter. Some of the lack of awareness may be a function of new faces and changing defensive strategies multiple times this year. Some of it is that we don't have a ton of great defenders. Goldwire is certainly pesky on the perimeter, Moore is versatile although probably better against bigs than littles, Johnson is good at getting steals and blocks, and Williams is a shotchanger. But Hurt, Roach, Steward, Brakefield, and Tape are probably hurt the defense overall (Johnson might be as well depending on his awareness). Coleman might have some defensive value, but until the UNC game he's played minimally.

    I'm interested to see the direction the team goes moving forward this season. Coach K is a legend, of course, but this is probably the most challenging coaching job he's had in over a decade. Between the roster turnover, the youth, the lack of multiple one-and-done talents, and the pandemic ruining preseason prep, he's got a lot on his hands. Now, he's got to get the team to come together quickly ahead of a fairly tough back end of the schedule to salvage the season.
    This is the primary achilles heel of OAD in a nutshell. I'm going to go way back here...recall back when college kids made up Olympic teams, and 1988 was the last one where we barely squeezed out bronze, and this became the advent of the Dream Teams. That team had David Robinson, Danny Manning, and Mitch Richmond but really struggled against the Soviets (I was actually at that game in Seoul). John Thompson was coach, and when asked what was the fatal flaw, he said you can't teach team defense overnight, even with a group of college all-stars. That's what it came down to. In the OAD era, this has been a consistent struggle, and I don't think Coach has been able to see the Duke M2M with all its intensity be executed consistently well. Once in a while, like in 2015, it clicks (and even then we were only 111th in the country in pts allowed), but most of the time, it doesn't and takes kids in a system more than one year to figure out college-level team defense, much less Coach K's. Coach going to zone was nearly unthinkable just a few seasons ago but out of necessity had to because even uber-talented kids (i.e., Marvin Bagley) just could not figure out team (help) defense. And this year we have not been able to offset really poor D with really good O.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by troach42 View Post
    I don't know what Hurt, Steward, Johnson, or Roach is thinking about where they will be playing basketball in 2022. I feel VERY confident that not a single one of those guys will be playing in the NBA next year.
    This is a really flawed take. Jalen Johnson will 100% be playing in the NBA next year. NBA scouts, who get paid a lot of money to be a lot smarter about this than any of us, unanimously agree that Jalen is a lock to be a first round draft pick. The other three have much more uncertainty -- at least in terms of the 2021-22 NBA season -- but the notion that Jalen won't be in the league next season is just plain wrong. I'd gleefully make a pie bet on this is you want.

    -Jason "I suppose there might be a tiny chance Jalen opts to stay at Duke. But if he enters the draft he will be highly drafted and will certainly be on a NBA roster in 2021-22" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

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