next season

[throatybeard]

I didn't expect Stanley to stay two, though I thought there was a nonzero possibility. I just liked him better than anyone lately is all, and that's what I miss.

[CDu]

I am surprised how many people expected Cassius to stick around. I always viewed Cassius as a two outcome guy. One, he was going to show more talent than expected and, given his age, would go. Two, show a lot of athleticism but not much basketball skill and end up as a Marty Pocius type of player without the calves discussion.

I didn't have an expectation either way on Stanley. But given his recruiting ranking, he was not a typical candidate for early entry. For example, not many folks were surprised that Moore was back for year 2, but he (#25) was a higher-rated recruit than Stanley (#33). I think there were a lot of outcomes between "one and done" and "Marty Pocius".

[azzefkram]

I didn't have an expectation either way on Stanley. But given his recruiting ranking, he was not a typical candidate for early entry. For example, not many folks were surprised that Moore was back for year 2, but he (#25) was a higher-rated recruit than Stanley (#33). I think there were a lot of outcomes between "one and done" and "Marty Pocius".

Once I found out how old Cassius was relative to his class, that definitely lowered the bar for me wrt OAD. If Cassius had been Wendell's age, I would have had a larger range of outcomes.

[CDu]

Once I found out how old Cassius was relative to his class, that definitely lowered the bar for me wrt OAD. If Cassius had been Wendell's age, I would have had a larger range of outcomes.

Even given the age, there was a wider range of outcomes than the two you mentioned.

[Nugget]

This is a big part of Duke's issues this year. Even if Jalen didn't leave early, he has to be viewed as a bit of a recruiting miss. Jalen is a very talented player but in many ways reminds me of a very rich person's Marques Bolden. I can't remember how many times I saw Marques but a great move on the block and wonder why he doesn't do that more often. Of course, on the next play I would watch him watch a rebound go right by him while an opposing player grabs it.

I also think K's flexibility worked against him this year. How much team development was spent trying to tap into Jalen's talent?




I am surprised how many people expected Cassius to stick around. I always viewed Cassius as a two outcome guy. One, he was going to show more talent than expected and, given his age, would go. Two, show a lot of athleticism but not much basketball skill and end up as a Marty Pocius type of player without the calves discussion.

I think there is a fair amount of revisionist history on whether Stanley or Trent were so unlikely to go pro after one season. My recollection was there was lots of talk while Trent/Wendell Carter were being recruited of them coming in together as one and dones and Trent was in the Top 15 of his class (a not uncommon range for one and dones); while the surprise of Bagley reclassifying late that year took most of the pre-season/hype oxygen away from Trent and Carter, I doubt the program really expected Trent not to go. And, Cassius due to his age alone was always likely to be one and done.

I'd share CDu and azzefkram's observation that a key to this season was the mess related to Jalen Johnson, whether it was due to injury, intangibles, him not being as good as expected (I wonder if there is anything to make of Johnson falling from the #4-rated player in his class per RSCI heading into the Summer before his senior season to the #11-rated player after, or if that's merely a residue of his weird senior year of HS?), or the uncertainties of trying to build around/accommodate him and then belatedly try to figure out how to play without him. The program Coach K has built over the past ten seasons has heavily relied on the star recruits (Top 10s/expected one and dones) actually playing like it.

Starting with Kyrie, Duke has landed 25 RSCI-rated Top 15 recruits and the vast, vast majority of them have panned out very well, and basically all of the Top 10-level players have been stars, other than injury-plagued Harry Giles, unable-to-shoot Trevon Duval (I suppose Cam Reddish could be classified as underperforming a bit, but he still went #10 in the draft):

2010: #2 Kyrie Irving
2011: #2 Austin Rivers
2012: #12 Rasheed Sulaimon
2013: #3 Jabari Parker
2014: #2 Jahlil Okafor, #7 Tyus Jones, #3 Justise Winslow
2015: #4 Brandon Ingram, #13 Derryck Thornton, #14 Chase Jeter
2016: #2 Harry Giles, #3 Jayson Tatum, #11 Marques Bolden, #14 Frank Jackson
2017: #1 Marvin Bagley, #5 Trevon Duval, #7 Wendell Carter, #14 Gary Trent
2018: #1 RJ Barrett, #2 Cam Reddish, #4 Zion Williamson, #13 Tre Jones
2019: #5 Vernon Carey, #12 Matthew Hurt
2020: #11 Jalen Johnson.

We've been very, very fortunate to have had a nearly unbroken string up until this year of having the players we were counting on being stars living up to it. Consider as a counter-point Kansas, which has had undeniably a consistent top 3-4 program over that same decade period and recruited a number (albeit not quite as many as us and Kentucky) of Top 15 RSCI-rated players. Over half of their Top 15 recruits vastly underperformed at KU (Embid and Devon Dotson (stars) and Billy Preston (bust) wouldn't hit this list b/c they were rated #16, #20 and #19):

2010: #3 Josh Selby
2013: #1 Andrew Wiggins, #13 Wayne Selden
2014: #4 Cliff Alexander, #8 Kelly Oubre
2015: #6 Cheick Diallo
2016: #1 Josh Jackson
2018: #8 Quentin Grimes.

Obviously, Wiggins, Josh Jackson and Kelly Oubre played up to their ratings. But, Josh Selby (8 ppg, OAD 2nd round), Wayne Selden (11 ppg. over 3 seasons, undrafted), Cliff Alexander (7 ppg, OAD undrafted), Cheick Diallo (3 ppg, OAD 2nd round) and Quentin Grimes (transferred) all definitely underperformed for KU. Bill Self has made up for that with some excellent player development (e.g., Perry Ellis, DeVonte Graham, Frank Mason, Udoka Azubuike, etc.). However, the relevant point for us is that up to Jalen Johnson we had an absurdly good streak of "hitting" on our star recruits.

One other aspect of this season that does have to be chalked up to a bit of a "miss" is that Coach K must have mis-evaluated Jeremy Roach. He was prioritized and recruited like a star -- we locked in on him very early and from what I can tell seem to have emphasized recruiting him at the expense of possibly having shots as Caleb Love and Jalen Suggs. We weren't alone in that regard -- Kentucky had also made Roach its #1 PG target for this class too. Coach K and Cal would seemingly be the two best talent evaluators in the business, so I'm wondering what it is they both saw in Roach. But, whatever it was, his struggles this season (in particular, his inability to create much for others on offense and his inability to stay in front of PGs on defense, which is pretty inexcusable in a PG as small as Roach is who will also be vulnerable to being bullied on switches) have to be considered a second major factor in this team's flaws.

[simplyluvin]

I think there is a fair amount of revisionist history on whether Stanley or Trent were so unlikely to go pro after one season. My recollection was there was lots of talk while Trent/Wendell Carter were being recruited of them coming in together as one and dones and Trent was in the Top 15 of his class (a not uncommon range for one and dones); while the surprise of Bagley reclassifying late that year took most of the pre-season/hype oxygen away from Trent and Carter, I doubt the program really expected Trent not to go. And, Cassius due to his age alone was always likely to be one and done.

I'd share CDu and azzefkram's observation that a key to this season was the mess related to Jalen Johnson, whether it was due to injury, intangibles, him not being as good as expected (I wonder if there is anything to make of Johnson falling from the #4-rated player in his class per RSCI heading into the Summer before his senior season to the #11-rated player after, or if that's merely a residue of his weird senior year of HS?), or the uncertainties of trying to build around/accommodate him and then belatedly try to figure out how to play without him. The program Coach K has built over the past ten seasons has heavily relied on the star recruits (Top 10s/expected one and dones) actually playing like it.

Starting with Kyrie, Duke has landed 25 RSCI-rated Top 15 recruits and the vast, vast majority of them have panned out very well, and basically all of the Top 10-level players have been stars, other than injury-plagued Harry Giles, unable-to-shoot Trevon Duval (I suppose Cam Reddish could be classified as underperforming a bit, but he still went #10 in the draft):

2010: #2 Kyrie Irving
2011: #2 Austin Rivers
2012: #12 Rasheed Sulaimon
2013: #3 Jabari Parker
2014: #2 Jahlil Okafor, #7 Tyus Jones, #3 Justise Winslow
2015: #4 Brandon Ingram, #13 Derryck Thornton, #14 Chase Jeter
2016: #2 Harry Giles, #3 Jayson Tatum, #11 Marques Bolden, #14 Frank Jackson
2017: #1 Marvin Bagley, #5 Trevon Duval, #7 Wendell Carter, #14 Gary Trent
2018: #1 RJ Barrett, #2 Cam Reddish, #4 Zion Williamson, #13 Tre Jones
2019: #5 Vernon Carey, #12 Matthew Hurt
2020: #11 Jalen Johnson.

We've been very, very fortunate to have had a nearly unbroken string up until this year of having the players we were counting on being stars living up to it. Consider as a counter-point Kansas, which has had undeniably a consistent top 3-4 program over that same decade period and recruited a number (albeit not quite as many as us and Kentucky) of Top 15 RSCI-rated players. Over half of their Top 15 recruits vastly underperformed at KU (Embid and Devon Dotson (stars) and Billy Preston (bust) wouldn't hit this list b/c they were rated #16, #20 and #19):

2010: #3 Josh Selby
2013: #1 Andrew Wiggins, #13 Wayne Selden
2014: #4 Cliff Alexander, #8 Kelly Oubre
2015: #6 Cheick Diallo
2016: #1 Josh Jackson
2018: #8 Quentin Grimes.

Obviously, Wiggins, Josh Jackson and Kelly Oubre played up to their ratings. But, Josh Selby (8 ppg, OAD 2nd round), Wayne Selden (11 ppg. over 3 seasons, undrafted), Cliff Alexander (7 ppg, OAD undrafted), Cheick Diallo (3 ppg, OAD 2nd round) and Quentin Grimes (transferred) all definitely underperformed for KU. Bill Self has made up for that with some excellent player development (e.g., Perry Ellis, DeVonte Graham, Frank Mason, Udoka Azubuike, etc.). However, the relevant point for us is that up to Jalen Johnson we had an absurdly good streak of "hitting" on our star recruits.

One other aspect of this season that does have to be chalked up to a bit of a "miss" is that Coach K must have mis-evaluated Jeremy Roach. He was prioritized and recruited like a star -- we locked in on him very early and from what I can tell seem to have emphasized recruiting him at the expense of possibly having shots as Caleb Love and Jalen Suggs. We weren't alone in that regard -- Kentucky had also made Roach its #1 PG target for this class too. Coach K and Cal would seemingly be the two best talent evaluators in the business, so I'm wondering what it is they both saw in Roach. But, whatever it was, his struggles this season (in particular, his inability to create much for others on offense and his inability to stay in front of PGs on defense, which is pretty inexcusable in a PG as small as Roach is who will also be vulnerable to being bullied on switches) have to be considered a second major factor in this team's flaws.

Thanks for this analysis. I thought we did well with our top-15 recruits panning out, but I didn't think we did this well. Aside from transfers, Giles, and Duval, everyone on the list above turned out to be really strong players and at worst 2AD (Tre & Hurt, who are both stars as sophs). The fact that we really haven't missed badly on top recruits until this year is pretty amazing.

Regarding Roach, I think it's really hard to come back from an ACL injury, which he suffered his junior year, I believe. Didn't Quinn have an ACL tear his senior year? I'd argue Quinn didn't really enter into form until later his sophomore year. Harry Giles (2 ACLs) just hasn't found his form even with NBA-level development and rehab. Roach's development (or lack of) is likely exacerbated by limitations of the pandemic. While my expectations are tempered, I am keen on seeing how Roach develops as a playmaker. He was rated as the #1 or #2 PG in his class his sophomore year, so there is something there.

[CDu]

I'd share CDu and azzefkram's observation that a key to this season was the mess related to Jalen Johnson, whether it was due to injury, intangibles, him not being as good as expected (I wonder if there is anything to make of Johnson falling from the #4-rated player in his class per RSCI heading into the Summer before his senior season to the #11-rated player after, or if that's merely a residue of his weird senior year of HS?), or the uncertainties of trying to build around/accommodate him and then belatedly try to figure out how to play without him. The program Coach K has built over the past ten seasons has heavily relied on the star recruits (Top 10s/expected one and dones) actually playing like it.

I think the prevailing thought regarding Johnson's decline in the rankings was because he had almost no senior year. In terms of performance, he played like a top-10 recruit within this year's class, albeit towards the back end. It just happened that this year's class was weaker than usual, and his fit/chemistry on this team wasn't as ideal. Between not having great guard play and having a weak rebounding, weak defensive, iso-style scorer who needed to play PF next to him, it just didn't pan out. But in terms of PER, he was still pretty strong; it just wasn't there consistently.

But if he was playing like a back-half-of-the-top-10 recruit typically does at Duke (see Wendell Carter, Tyus Jones) and hadn't had the chemistry issues or whatever other issues were going on, our season looks a lot different.

One other aspect of this season that does have to be chalked up to a bit of a "miss" is that Coach K must have mis-evaluated Jeremy Roach. He was prioritized and recruited like a star -- we locked in on him very early and from what I can tell seem to have emphasized recruiting him at the expense of possibly having shots as Caleb Love and Jalen Suggs. We weren't alone in that regard -- Kentucky had also made Roach its #1 PG target for this class too. Coach K and Cal would seemingly be the two best talent evaluators in the business, so I'm wondering what it is they both saw in Roach. But, whatever it was, his struggles this season (in particular, his inability to create much for others on offense and his inability to stay in front of PGs on defense, which is pretty inexcusable in a PG as small as Roach is who will also be vulnerable to being bullied on switches) have to be considered a second major factor in this team's flaws.

Duke committed to Roach prior to his tearing his ACL. At that point, he was a pretty dominant lead guard. He was leaner and perhaps more explosive prior to the injury. Whether or not he's lost his fearlessness or some of his athleticism in the 2 years since the injury, or if he simply was destined to decline as the size, speed, and skill of the opposition (and the coordination of team defense) improved is hard to say.

At the time he was recruited, Roach probably was the top PG, or at least on par with Suggs an ahead of Love. In fact, as of the summer of 2019, Roach was still ahead of Love. But Love really rose as a senior, whereas Roach's stock had stagnated (probably a residual of his missed junior year and missed summer circuit before senior year).

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I didn't have an expectation either way on Stanley. But given his recruiting ranking, he was not a typical candidate for early entry. For example, not many folks were surprised that Moore was back for year 2, but he (#25) was a higher-rated recruit than Stanley (#33). I think there were a lot of outcomes between "one and done" and "Marty Pocius".

Correct my memory, but didn't we have a pretty solid verbal from Boogie Ellis until Cassius committed, at which point Boogie switched to Memphis? Looking at Memphis' stats, Boogie started 27/31 games as a freshman, averaging 8.0 ppg, while as a sophomore (this year) he only started 9/22 games but averaged 9.3 ppg. It looks like he played a lot more at the beginning and end of the season with more production at those times, so I don't know if there were other circumstances. He is 6-3, 180 (so built like Roach/Steward). Just imagining how the world would have been different if we had Boogie and not Cassius (since that was a real possibility) - Boogie likely would have done worse than Cassius as a freshman and stuck around as a sophomore. His presence likely would not have prevented Roach/Steward from signing. Not sure if he would have had a lot of impact this year except from an experience perspective.

I don't normally like to traffic in "what if?" because usually, as others have mentioned, one person sticking around might have prevented us from getting someone else, but in this case, since he had verballed, this is not mere speculation.

[UrinalCake]

Ellis decommitted first, then Stanley committed.

[Nugget]

Correct my memory, but didn't we have a pretty solid verbal from Boogie Ellis until Cassius committed, at which point Boogie switched to Memphis? Looking at Memphis' stats, Boogie started 27/31 games as a freshman, averaging 8.0 ppg, while as a sophomore (this year) he only started 9/22 games but averaged 9.3 ppg. It looks like he played a lot more at the beginning and end of the season with more production at those times, so I don't know if there were other circumstances. He is 6-3, 180 (so built like Roach/Steward). Just imagining how the world would have been different if we had Boogie and not Cassius (since that was a real possibility) - Boogie likely would have done worse than Cassius as a freshman and stuck around as a sophomore. His presence likely would not have prevented Roach/Steward from signing. Not sure if he would have had a lot of impact this year except from an experience perspective.

I don't normally like to traffic in "what if?" because usually, as others have mentioned, one person sticking around might have prevented us from getting someone else, but in this case, since he had verballed, this is not mere speculation.

My recollection (including published statements from Boogie) was that his decommitting was much more tied to Tre Jones' decision to come back for his Soph. season (and Boogie's view of himself as a PG) than our landing Stanley. https://thespun.com/acc/duke-blue-de...tted-from-duke

[Nugget]

I think the prevailing thought regarding Johnson's decline in the rankings was because he had almost no senior year. In terms of performance, he played like a top-10 recruit within this year's class, albeit towards the back end. It just happened that this year's class was weaker than usual, and his fit/chemistry on this team wasn't as ideal. Between not having great guard play and having a weak rebounding, weak defensive, iso-style scorer who needed to play PF next to him, it just didn't pan out. But in terms of PER, he was still pretty strong; it just wasn't there consistently.

But if he was playing like a back-half-of-the-top-10 recruit typically does at Duke (see Wendell Carter, Tyus Jones) and hadn't had the chemistry issues or whatever other issues were going on, our season looks a lot different.



Duke committed to Roach prior to his tearing his ACL. At that point, he was a pretty dominant lead guard. He was leaner and perhaps more explosive prior to the injury. Whether or not he's lost his fearlessness or some of his athleticism in the 2 years since the injury, or if he simply was destined to decline as the size, speed, and skill of the opposition (and the coordination of team defense) improved is hard to say.

At the time he was recruited, Roach probably was the top PG, or at least on par with Suggs an ahead of Love. In fact, as of the summer of 2019, Roach was still ahead of Love. But Love really rose as a senior, whereas Roach's stock had stagnated (probably a residual of his missed junior year and missed summer circuit before senior year).

Hopefully, we will get the benefit of some traditional Fr-to-Soph development from both Roach and DJ (and, daresay, maybe as upperclassmen, too???).

[dukelion]

Adding Keels would really round out a great class assuming Baldwin plays for his father.

Banchero is a stud who I think is an all ACC talent the second he steps on the court. Really don't understand how he won't be the #1 player in the class after all is said and done. Presumed #1 Chet Holmgren is skilled but beyond skinny...can't see him being effective without adding 30lbs which I'm not sure he's capable of doing.

Reports are that Griffin is up to 6' 8" 225 which would be a nice surprise and offer us some tremendous position flexibility.

And Keels just seems like a great fit especially since he played with Roach in high school.

Add those three while only losing Hurt seems like a classic Duke top 10 team to me.

[gep]

I'm not complaining on how Duke conducted their business. I am, or was, just concerned about Coach K. He also had to deal with a daughter who had a bad case of Covid as a stroke victim. As far as other teams and schools, I am not exactly sure what you are saying about how they prioritized things. I think there were plenty of schools who didn't take short cuts handling Covid to have winning records. Close to home, in a state that was very stringent with Covid mandates, UVa seem to have had a pretty good season with a very conservative approach to how they conducted their business. Covid protocol may have contributed greatly to the slow development of our freshman class. If things are back to normal and the players get the summer with their future teammates, we will see if it was a major factor.

Upthread I saw someone mention Coach K’s daughter had to deal with Covid as a stroke victim. I was not aware she had suffered a stroke. That certainly is difficult to deal with and I’m sure was weighing on Coach’s mind. My good friend buried his Dad last week at 72 after his dad had a stroke on New Year’s Day in 2016 and never fully recovered. My prayers to her for a full recovery from Covid-19!

As CameronDuke said, I do recall hearing that Coach K's daughter had COVID-19 but don't recall hearing that she also was a stroke victim? If so, Coach K surely must have a lot on his mind... What a weird season...

[peteandpete]

According to the N & O, Debbie had a mild stroke as a result of a vertebral artery dissection 10 years ago. She recovered fully as a result of treatment at Duke U. Hospital and was back at work a few weeks later.

[Daddylawman]

I read the last few pages, but not this whole thread, so forgive me if this has been discussed. But this year every player in the NCAA is automatically a free agent, able to transfer without penalty. I'm not so sure we are going to be immune from this. Aren't there greener pastures for Coleman, Baker and maybe Brakefield given our recruits? If we get Keels, who else might worry about diminished minutes? I'm not predicting any of these guys going, I'm just sayinng that Hurt going to the NBA is not our only potential loss going into next year.

[-jk]

I read the last few pages, but not this whole thread, so forgive me if this has been discussed. But this year every player in the NCAA is automatically a free agent, able to transfer without penalty. I'm not so sure we are going to be immune from this. Aren't there greener pastures for Coleman, Baker and maybe Brakefield given our recruits? If we get Keels, who else might worry about diminished minutes? I'm not predicting any of these guys going, I'm just sayinng that Hurt going to the NBA is not our only potential loss going into next year.

Every player gets another year, but are they all able to transfer without sitting out again next season?

There will be a larger than usual grad transfer cohort, of course.

-jk

[Daddylawman]

Every player gets another year, but are they all able to transfer without sitting out again next season?

There will be a larger than usual grad transfer cohort, of course.

-jk

Yes - everyone can transfer and be immediately eligible.

https://www.ncaa.org/about/resources...te-immediately

[plimnko]

Adding Keels would really round out a great class assuming Baldwin plays for his father.

Banchero is a stud who I think is an all ACC talent the second he steps on the court. Really don't understand how he won't be the #1 player in the class after all is said and done. Presumed #1 Chet Holmgren is skilled but beyond skinny...can't see him being effective without adding 30lbs which I'm not sure he's capable of doing.

Reports are that Griffin is up to 6' 8" 225 which would be a nice surprise and offer us some tremendous position flexibility.

And Keels just seems like a great fit especially since he played with Roach in high school.

Add those three while only losing Hurt seems like a classic Duke top 10 team to me.

Is it a foregone conclusion Hurt is gone?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Is it a foregone conclusion Hurt is gone?

Assume he is and you won't be disappointed.

Although I suspect it how this week plays out may have an effect on his decision.

[scottdude8]

With a lot of the conversation about Matt's decision drawing parallels to Cassius, I thought it might be interesting to see how they're rated respectively right now (obviously Hurt still has time to improve/damage his stock, but with the season nearing it's end one would think teams are starting to have clearer opinions on players). NBADraft.net isn't the best site, but it's the most easily accessible one. In their last 2020 "Top 100" list, Cassius was ranked #41. Right now on the 2021 Top 100 list, Matt Hurt is #95.

Obviously that's just one site (and, again, not the best one at that, although it is free, haha), but that's a pretty jarring differential. Cassius was in a spot where it was pretty clear he'd at least get drafted, although probably not as high as one might expect from an early entrant. Depending on what happens down the stretch, Matt may not even be guaranteed draft status.

All that's to say, I agree we should expect him to leave and be pleasantly surprised if he doesn't. But at this exact moment, I think his odds at returning are slightly better than what seems to be the consensus on the board.