next season

[jv001]

I'm hoping Banchero and Griffin can create their own shots and have good passing skills. This season, we lacked that. I grew tired of watching the ball be dribbled and nothing happening on offense. I can't remember seeing a team get down to the shot clock expiring as much as this group. I guess it's either a player problem or 2 system problem. Heck it could be a little of both.

GoDuke!

[CameronDuke]

Duke’s roster next year will be good and they will have some upperclassmen, thank God! My biggest wish for next season outside everyone staying healthy is that Hurt returns. It would be cool if Goldwire returned too since I think he’s eligible due to the pandemic even though he’s a senior.

Next year Duke could feature the following roster:

Seniors: Goldwire*, Baker
Juniors: Moore, Jr., Hurt*
Sophomores: Williams, Roach, Brakefield, Steward, Coleman III
Freshmen: Panchero, Griffin

That’s a stacked roster but I do realize Goldwire and Hurt may not return. If Hurt returns, that offense would be above average with the potential to be great if the guys can improve their shooting and decision making this off-season. I am stoked about the potential Williams shows offensively and the prospects of him putting on 15-20 more lbs and learning how to be a better defender and block more shots.

[throatybeard]

As far as "finishing at the rim" through your stats - just looking at FG% doesn't capture:
- Driving to the basket, losing the ball out of bounds.
- Driving to the basket, throwing the ball out to the top of the key because there is nowhere to go.
- Driving the the basket, getting the ball stolen before getting a shot up.
- Driving the the basket, having a 24 second shot clock violation.

Those sequential shot clock violations were killers. How many possessions did we go without hitting the rim? Felt like easily 8-10 total and three or four in a row.

Indeed. There are all sorts of things stats don't capture.

[dukelifer]

Duke’s roster next year will be good and they will have some upperclassmen, thank God! My biggest wish for next season outside everyone staying healthy is that Hurt returns. It would be cool if Goldwire returned too since I think he’s eligible due to the pandemic even though he’s a senior.

Next year Duke could feature the following roster:

Seniors: Goldwire*, Baker
Juniors: Moore, Jr., Hurt*
Sophomores: Williams, Roach, Brakefield, Steward, Coleman III
Freshmen: Panchero, Griffin

That’s a stacked roster but I do realize Goldwire and Hurt may not return. If Hurt returns, that offense would be above average with the potential to be great if the guys can improve their shooting and decision making this off-season. I am stoked about the potential Williams shows offensively and the prospects of him putting on 15-20 more lbs and learning how to be a better defender and block more shots.

This is a very interesting team next year if Hurt returns- I hope he sees that as well.

[wsb3]

https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/

I have always thought that Hurt made a decision to return for one more year just as Tre Jones did. (I have zero inside information to support my opinion) Even though I don't see Hurt listed as being drafted- I would be pleasantly shocked if he returned.

They can make money playing in the G-League now & get started on their professional career. That is where we are.

I think Gary Trent is a good example of this, though when he is 40 he might regret not being a national champion. That team needed a shooter and I think he would have been the answer.

[BlueDevilStop]

Disappointing season, but the future is bright. Order will be restored next season.

[dm9e24]

Well, you laid out the situation rather nicely, so you have your frustrations as well as your explanations.

I for one have no problem with the school/coach/players recognizing that sometimes there are things much larger than winning college basketball games.

If K is a self-described "leader of men," this is an important lesson. Public health, personal health, social injustice - these things have a much longer and larger arc that any individual game or season.

I hope things are normalized next season of course. If not, we will see what happens.

Am I disappointed by the outcomes of this season? Of course. But I'm proud of the decisions and priorities that the university and the athletic programs have shown.

I'm sure many will disagree with me, but I'm fine with that too.

Go Duke! Let's get five wins in five days!

Thanks for response. A number of challenges in a challenging year. A lot of teams with our talent were up to the challenge. I hope it doesn't shorten K's remaining years at Duke. But if it does, it was great run and accomplishments I never thought I would see prior to his hire.

[plimnko]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3DeG1Dv-HM

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Thanks for response. A number of challenges in a challenging year. A lot of teams with our talent were up to the challenge. I hope it doesn't shorten K's remaining years at Duke. But if it does, it was great run and accomplishments I never thought I would see prior to his hire.

Well, teams and schools addressed the various situations differently and prioritized things differently. I'm proud of the way Duke has conducted their business, even if it has negatively impacted the 2021 basketball season.

[Kedsy]

As far as "finishing at the rim" through your stats - just looking at FG% doesn't capture:
- Driving to the basket, losing the ball out of bounds.
- Driving to the basket, throwing the ball out to the top of the key because there is nowhere to go.
- Driving the the basket, getting the ball stolen before getting a shot up.
- Driving the the basket, having a 24 second shot clock violation.

Those sequential shot clock violations were killers. How many possessions did we go without hitting the rim? Felt like easily 8-10 total and three or four in a row.

I would argue the factors you mention relate to getting to the rim, something at which we haven't seemed to be very good this season. I would also argue "finishing" at the rim has to involve an attempt, in which case FG% should be a pretty good measure. Semantic perhaps, but I think it's a reasonable distinction.

Who is going to rebound besides Williams? I would like to see Hurt stay another year. He struggled against the kinds of athletic guys he will be competing against in the future.

Paolo Banchero averaged 11 rpg as a high school junior (10 rpg as a high school freshman). AJ Griffin averaged 9 rpg as a high school junior. Jaemyn Brakefield and Henry Coleman both have better rebounding percentages and more rebounds per minute than Matthew Hurt. Wendell Moore's such numbers are about the same as Hurt's.

Banchero (by reputation), Griffin (by reputation), and Coleman are all much better overall defenders than Hurt, as well.

In other words, it might be nice to have Matthew's shooting next year, but we're not really going to miss his rebounding (or his defense).

Who was the last player that stayed 4 years and was a contributor, leader, and alpha? Allen? Cook? Maybe one or two in the last 6-7 seasons?

In the past seven seasons, we've had the following three- or four-year players who started and/or were major contributors (not counting White or DeLaurier, who you apparently discount):

2021: Jordan Goldwire
2020: Jordan Goldwire
2019: Marques Bolden
2018: Grayson Allen
2017: Grayson Allen, Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones
2016: Marshall Plumlee, Matt Jones, Amile Jefferson (missed most of season with an injury, but you can't blame that on recruiting)
2015: Quinn Cook, Rasheed Sulaimon, Amile Jefferson

That's 13 in 7 years (17 if you count DeLaurier and White). In today's player-climate, how many of this sort of player would you expect?

Duke has had guys stay 3-4 years but haven’t really developed into studs (White, DeLaurier come to mind) during that time span.

You talk about the downside of recruiting OADs, but this is the downside of recruiting guys who are clearly four-year players. Sometimes (most of the time, really) they don't develop into "studs."

But they do develop. I think Jordan Goldwire is an amazing example of a guy who in high school was outside the top 300 of recruits, but has come along so well that he's started 27 games at Duke and is currently tied for 11th in the country in steals percentage. He's no Scheyer, Smith, or Duhon, but those guys were all top-shelf recruits (Duhon #7; Smith #18; Scheyer #28), and thus today would pose a risk of only staying one or two years.

Back in the day, Duke was led by studs as juniors and seniors. Battier, James, Scheyer, Singler, Smith, Duhon come to mind. Duke doesn’t have juniors and seniors like that anymore.

Nobody has juniors and seniors like that anymore. Highly recruited kids who play as well as the guys you mention simply don't stay in college for three or four years today.

It's one thing to pine for the good old days. It's quite another to expect something that is nearly impossible to happen.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Next season can’t come soon enough.

I'll have your programs ready

Thank you! We look forward to seeing you there! LGD GTHcGTH!

[kshepinthehouse]

I would argue the factors you mention relate to getting to the rim, something at which we haven't seemed to be very good this season. I would also argue "finishing" at the rim has to involve an attempt, in which case FG% should be a pretty good measure. Semantic perhaps, but I think it's a reasonable distinction.



Paolo Banchero averaged 11 rpg as a high school junior (10 rpg as a high school freshman). AJ Griffin averaged 9 rpg as a high school junior. Jaemyn Brakefield and Henry Coleman both have better rebounding percentages and more rebounds per minute than Matthew Hurt. Wendell Moore's such numbers are about the same as Hurt's.

Banchero (by reputation), Griffin (by reputation), and Coleman are all much better overall defenders than Hurt, as well.

In other words, it might be nice to have Matthew's shooting next year, but we're not really going to miss his rebounding (or his defense).



In the past seven seasons, we've had the following three- or four-year players who started and/or were major contributors (not counting White or DeLaurier, who you apparently discount):

2021: Jordan Goldwire
2020: Jordan Goldwire
2019: Marques Bolden
2018: Grayson Allen
2017: Grayson Allen, Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones
2016: Marshall Plumlee, Matt Jones, Amile Jefferson (missed most of season with an injury, but you can't blame that on recruiting)
2015: Quinn Cook, Rasheed Sulaimon, Amile Jefferson

That's 13 in 7 years (17 if you count DeLaurier and White). In today's player-climate, how many of this sort of player would you expect?



You talk about the downside of recruiting OADs, but this is the downside of recruiting guys who are clearly four-year players. Sometimes (most of the time, really) they don't develop into "studs."

But they do develop. I think Jordan Goldwire is an amazing example of a guy who in high school was outside the top 300 of recruits, but has come along so well that he's started 27 games at Duke and is currently tied for 11th in the country in steals percentage. He's no Scheyer, Smith, or Duhon, but those guys were all top-shelf recruits (Duhon #7; Smith #18; Scheyer #28), and thus today would pose a risk of only staying one or two years.



Nobody has juniors and seniors like that anymore. Highly recruited kids who play as well as the guys you mention simply don't stay in college for three or four years today.

It's one thing to pine for the good old days. It's quite another to expect something that is nearly impossible to happen.

And look at our record with a guy like Goldwire playing so many minutes.

[CameronDuke]

I would argue the factors you mention relate to getting to the rim, something at which we haven't seemed to be very good this season. I would also argue "finishing" at the rim has to involve an attempt, in which case FG% should be a pretty good measure. Semantic perhaps, but I think it's a reasonable distinction.



Paolo Banchero averaged 11 rpg as a high school junior (10 rpg as a high school freshman). AJ Griffin averaged 9 rpg as a high school junior. Jaemyn Brakefield and Henry Coleman both have better rebounding percentages and more rebounds per minute than Matthew Hurt. Wendell Moore's such numbers are about the same as Hurt's.

Banchero (by reputation), Griffin (by reputation), and Coleman are all much better overall defenders than Hurt, as well.

In other words, it might be nice to have Matthew's shooting next year, but we're not really going to miss his rebounding (or his defense).



In the past seven seasons, we've had the following three- or four-year players who started and/or were major contributors (not counting White or DeLaurier, who you apparently discount):

2021: Jordan Goldwire
2020: Jordan Goldwire
2019: Marques Bolden
2018: Grayson Allen
2017: Grayson Allen, Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones
2016: Marshall Plumlee, Matt Jones, Amile Jefferson (missed most of season with an injury, but you can't blame that on recruiting)
2015: Quinn Cook, Rasheed Sulaimon, Amile Jefferson

That's 13 in 7 years (17 if you count DeLaurier and White). In today's player-climate, how many of this sort of player would you expect?



You talk about the downside of recruiting OADs, but this is the downside of recruiting guys who are clearly four-year players. Sometimes (most of the time, really) they don't develop into "studs."

But they do develop. I think Jordan Goldwire is an amazing example of a guy who in high school was outside the top 300 of recruits, but has come along so well that he's started 27 games at Duke and is currently tied for 11th in the country in steals percentage. He's no Scheyer, Smith, or Duhon, but those guys were all top-shelf recruits (Duhon #7; Smith #18; Scheyer #28), and thus today would pose a risk of only staying one or two years.



Nobody has juniors and seniors like that anymore. Highly recruited kids who play as well as the guys you mention simply don't stay in college for three or four years today.

It's one thing to pine for the good old days. It's quite another to expect something that is nearly impossible to happen.

Allen and Cook were upper echelon players. Amile was good but not elite. The rest of the guys you mentioned were pretty average college players to me. Sulaimon? Come on, you’re better than that. None of those guys are really in the same mold as Battier, James, Singler, Smith, and Duhon in terms of performance, leadership, development, and talent. The majority of them in terms of actual talent and performance on the court are a huge stretch to compare to the guys I mentioned. Marshall Plumlee? Great kid, in the Army now, he tried his best but I still wouldn’t consider he had a great career at Duke statistically.

Good point that 4 year guys rarely develop but look at how many studs UVa has developed in 3-4 years: Ty Jerome, Kyle Guy, Malcolm Brogdon, Joe Harris, DeAndre Hunter, Kihei Clark, and more. Those are guys that stayed 3-4 years and turned into pretty great talents. The one that really impressed me in terms of development was Jay Huff. For whatever reason, Duke didn’t land him although he was from Durham. That’s a miss on Duke’s recruiting front. He is precisely the type of player I’d like on Duke. A guy who dominates as a senior and has been in the program for a while and can lead and knows the system.

[Kedsy]

Allen and Cook were upper echelon players. Amile was good but not elite. The rest of the guys you mentioned were pretty average college players to me. Sulaimon? Come on, you’re better than that. None of those guys are really in the same mold as Battier, James, Singler, Smith, and Duhon in terms of performance, leadership, development, and talent. The majority of them in terms of actual talent and performance on the court are a huge stretch to compare to the guys I mentioned. Marshall Plumlee? Great kid, in the Army now, he tried his best but I still wouldn’t consider he had a great career at Duke statistically.

I honestly don't think I am better than that. If not for his off-court issues, Rasheed Sulaimon is exactly the kind of player the non-OAD camp should want. He was a high-school All-American, #12 recruit in the country, and made the All-ACC freshman team. He played four years of college and his senior year at Maryland, he was honorable mention All Big 10.

Personally, I'd argue that guys like Amile Jefferson and Matt Jones were as good or better than Nate James, who (like them) was a defensive-minded guy ranked in the 20s or 30s out of high school who didn't do a whole lot on offense. Marshall Plumlee averaged 8ppg and 9rpg as a senior, which is pretty good for a non-shooter who came out of high school ranked #61. And every guy on my list was a starter and contributor at Duke, which I thought was your criteria.

But of course none of the guys I mentioned were in the same mold as Battier (top 10 recruit), Singler (top 10 recruit), Smith (top 20 recruit), and Duhon (top 10 recruit). The point is, those types of guys don't stay three or four years of college anymore. No matter how much we want it, there is absolutely no way Coach K can bring guys of that talent level and expect them to stay four years.

[WHOneedsSOX]

I would argue the factors you mention relate to getting to the rim, something at which we haven't seemed to be very good this season. I would also argue "finishing" at the rim has to involve an attempt, in which case FG% should be a pretty good measure. Semantic perhaps, but I think it's a reasonable distinction.



Paolo Banchero averaged 11 rpg as a high school junior (10 rpg as a high school freshman). AJ Griffin averaged 9 rpg as a high school junior. Jaemyn Brakefield and Henry Coleman both have better rebounding percentages and more rebounds per minute than Matthew Hurt. Wendell Moore's such numbers are about the same as Hurt's.

Banchero (by reputation), Griffin (by reputation), and Coleman are all much better overall defenders than Hurt, as well.

In other words, it might be nice to have Matthew's shooting next year, but we're not really going to miss his rebounding (or his defense).

I agree that Duke won't miss Hurt's rebounding but I always laugh watching high school highlight videos of these incoming freshmen. They're almost always the tallest guy on the court and I'm not saying this is the case with Banchero or Griffin but usually they play very little defense and just happen to be standing around the basket, taller and more athletic than everyone else, to get the rebounds and pad their stats.

[Kedsy]

I agree that Duke won't miss Hurt's rebounding but I always laugh watching high school highlight videos of these incoming freshmen. They're almost always the tallest guy on the court and I'm not saying this is the case with Banchero or Griffin but usually they play very little defense and just happen to be standing around the basket, taller and more athletic than everyone else, to get the rebounds and pad their stats.

The thing that I find most exciting about Banchero and especially Griffin is they have the reputation of being strong defenders.

[CameronDuke]

I honestly don't think I am better than that. If not for his off-court issues, Rasheed Sulaimon is exactly the kind of player the non-OAD camp should want. He was a high-school All-American, #12 recruit in the country, and made the All-ACC freshman team. He played four years of college and his senior year at Maryland, he was honorable mention All Big 10.

Personally, I'd argue that guys like Amile Jefferson and Matt Jones were as good or better than Nate James, who (like them) was a defensive-minded guy ranked in the 20s or 30s out of high school who didn't do a whole lot on offense. Marshall Plumlee averaged 8ppg and 9rpg as a senior, which is pretty good for a non-shooter who came out of high school ranked #61. And every guy on my list was a starter and contributor at Duke, which I thought was your criteria.

But of course none of the guys I mentioned were in the same mold as Battier (top 10 recruit), Singler (top 10 recruit), Smith (top 20 recruit), and Duhon (top 10 recruit). The point is, those types of guys don't stay three or four years of college anymore. No matter how much we want it, there is absolutely no way Coach K can bring guys of that talent level and expect them to stay four years.

Maybe less recruiting of guys Duke knows are probably one and done. They may be highly recruited and very talented but if they’re only going to stay one year and there is not going to be much continuity in the program, is it worth it? There are programs like I mentioned who have players stay 3-4 years and they end up dominant. These players aren’t top 10 recruits but they are top 100 recruits who fit the systems of the school. I think Duke needs to revisit what their style and pillars are and recruit guys to fit that style and those pillars rather than use the program as a launching pad for the NBA for lots of these players that come through. It’s turning into sort of an NBA audition type program rather than recruiting guys that fit Duke as a school, team, and program.

UVa gets top 100 recruits that fit their system and at the college level, they are dominant. Huff was 74th overall and has stayed 5 years and is a dominant college player. DeAndre Hunter was 73rd and was a dominant college player. Ty Jerome was 44th, and was a dominant college player.

Of course Duke wants the most talented players and if a kid is highly ranked Duke most likely will take him. But if Duke has an indication the kid is only going to be there a year and then use the excuse and make the point that “we’re young” when they start losing games, that doesn’t sit well with me. A way to be not “young” is to recruit guys to stay and develop them and make sure they fit the program rather than adapting the style of basketball Duke plays so frequently to fit their games. There needs to be more of a balance. Right now, it seems Duke has no identity each season but they do usually have a plethora of young, talented players. Having a veteran team is important in college basketball. One way to have that is to recruit more guys you think will be around in a few years rather than the highest rated one and done recruits. A balance would be nice.

[dukelifer]

Allen and Cook were upper echelon players. Amile was good but not elite. The rest of the guys you mentioned were pretty average college players to me. Sulaimon? Come on, you’re better than that. None of those guys are really in the same mold as Battier, James, Singler, Smith, and Duhon in terms of performance, leadership, development, and talent. The majority of them in terms of actual talent and performance on the court are a huge stretch to compare to the guys I mentioned. Marshall Plumlee? Great kid, in the Army now, he tried his best but I still wouldn’t consider he had a great career at Duke statistically.

Good point that 4 year guys rarely develop but look at how many studs UVa has developed in 3-4 years: Ty Jerome, Kyle Guy, Malcolm Brogdon, Joe Harris, DeAndre Hunter, Kihei Clark, and more. Those are guys that stayed 3-4 years and turned into pretty great talents. The one that really impressed me in terms of development was Jay Huff. For whatever reason, Duke didn’t land him although he was from Durham. That’s a miss on Duke’s recruiting front. He is precisely the type of player I’d like on Duke. A guy who dominates as a senior and has been in the program for a while and can lead and knows the system.

Not sure Duke missed on Huff. He was just born at the wrong time. Duke got , Giles, Bolden, Tatum, Jackson and DeLaurier. That is a big class. They won an ACC championship but did not dominate as expected as Giles and Bolden struggled. After a redshirt year, Huff averaged 3.4 points his first full season and 4.4 his next. He finally grew into his body and has become an excellent 3 point shooter. I am not sure he would have had the space to develop at Duke but you never know. This again shows that players do get better with time and Huff should make an all ACC team and probably get a tryout or two at the next level.

[jimsumner]

Just for the heck of it I looked at the consensus rankings from the high-school class of 2017, i.e. players who would be college seniors this season.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...ings-2017.html

The highest ranked recruits still in college are Washington's Quade Green (23), FSU's M.J. Walker (24), Louisville's Malik Williams (25) and Xavier's Paul Scruggs (29).

We also have some players well outside that range who have developed into major stars. Likely NPOY Luka Garza was ranked 93. But we also have West Virginia's Derek Culver at 79, Stanford's Oscar Da Silva (98) and Davidson's Kellan Grady (82) among others.

Corey Kispert was not ranked in the top 100.

Nothing earth-shattering, of course. Guys in the top 20 or so don't stick around for four years and some real gems can be mined outside the top 50.

But, just hypothetically, had Duke brought in a class of just Garza, Kispert, Culver, Da Silva and Grady, we would have thought K had lost his touch.

[scottdude8]

Just for the heck of it I looked at the consensus rankings from the high-school class of 2017, i.e. players who would be college seniors this season.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...ings-2017.html

The highest ranked recruits still in college are Washington's Quade Green (23), FSU's M.J. Walker (24), Louisville's Malik Williams (25) and Xavier's Paul Scruggs (29).

We also have some players well outside that range who have developed into major stars. Likely NPOY Luka Garza was ranked 93. But we also have West Virginia's Derek Culver at 79, Stanford's Oscar Da Silva (98) and Davidson's Kellan Grady (82) among others.

Corey Kispert was not ranked in the top 100.

Nothing earth-shattering, of course. Guys in the top 20 or so don't stick around for four years and some real gems can be mined outside the top 50.

But, just hypothetically, had Duke brought in a class of just Garza, Kispert, Culver, Da Silva and Grady, we would have thought K had lost his touch.

Luka Garza continues to amaze. I had such fun taunting him during his freshman year while I was at Michigan... he looked SO overmatched in the college game, even against a just decent Michigan front court. Now, he’s a dominant force.

For anyone who’s counting out Jeremy, DJ, and the crew based off of this season, keep the example of Luka in mind. Guys ranked in the Top 20-50 (like these guys) are more often 2-4 year players than OAD (I’d love to do a more detailed analysis on that but it’s Sunday night, haha). And because of the experience, they often end up as better COLLEGE players, even if they’re last first/early second round picks rather than lottery guys.

This year we had one of the youngest teams in Duke history. Next year we could potentially have one of the more experienced in recent memory (which says a lot about the OAD era, but is notable nonetheless). That plus two recruits that are lottery level talents to compliment that core makes me very optimistic about next season, a sentiment I promise to repeat ad nauseam in the coming months