next season

[simplyluvin]

And how many have failed to make the jump in that span? We are batting 3 for 3 on top-30 guards making a big jump from frosh to sophomore since Sulaimon. Everybody else either transferred (N=1) or went pro.

Snd yes, countless. Quinn Cook, Elliot Williams (unfortunately just not with us), Jason Williams, Daniel Ewing, Bobby Hurley, Billy McCaffrey, Will Avery, etc., all made big jumps as sophs.

I don’t think they are going to suddenly be pass-first guards. But they don’t need to be.

Let's just agree to disagree (and that's OK, btw). Our definitions of "countless" and "big jump" are probably a ways apart. I'll give you Avery, and maybe even JWill, but the rest of those guys made steady progression, not big jumps. McCaffrey's per 40 min scoring was the same in both years. Quinn's ortg and drtg both dropped his second year. Listen...what I'm trying to say is that we can't count on really significant jump. Steady development, yes. Our guard play was a real weakness this year, so here's hoping for a quantum leap, but I still say we need more help at the 1 and 2 positions next year (even with Keels).

[dukelifer]

Didn’t feel like an anomaly to me at all. This team came out poorly lots of times this year. Again tonight. Shot poorly many times this year. Again tonight. Careless turnovers all year. Again tonight. Lack of focus and effort defensively many times this year. Again tonight. No floor generalship or distribution from our point guards all year. Again tonight. Inability to finish plays at the rim all year. Again tonight.

We’ve had a few high points where we’ve strung together good stretches and won some games. But playing like this was more of a norm and less of an anomaly when we’re honest with ourselves. Which is why we’re a .500 team in a mediocre ACC.

I see brighter days ahead but the stretches this year of sustained high level play were few and far between.

Duke has been within winning distance inside a minute or two in most every game they played in the ACC. An 18 point loss is an anomaly. They never got close this game.

[tommy]

Duke has been within winning distance inside a minute or two in most every game they played in the ACC. An 18 point loss is an anomaly. They never got close this game.

That’s a reflection of the mediocrity of most of our opponents more than anything. I’m taking about the WAY that we played which for the most part this year has been pretty poor in the areas that I mentioned plus others I didn’t. Again, some good stretches and some bright spots here and there but overall the team
showed lots of significant problems from very early in the season until and including today. There’s an awful lot of work to be done here. A lot.

[buddy]

This year we are a mediocre team in a weak conference. We lost close games to teams that are not championship competitors. Good Duke teams would have won some or all of those close games. I want to be optimistic, but there is a pollyannish tone to some of these posts that just does not comport with this year's reality. We are a .500 team with one really good win, by one point on our home court, and some abominable losses. Carolina is not a good team this year, but they are world's ahead of us. We'll be somewhat older and more mature next year, but still one of the youngest teams in the conference and the NCAA. We have dug a deep hole with constant reliance on one year wonders to the point where our experienced players just don't match up with other teams. Somehow other schools manage to put together consistent programs without OADs. We used to. We don't.

[uh_no]

This year we are a mediocre team in a weak conference. We lost close games to teams that are not championship competitors. Good Duke teams would have won some or all of those close games. I want to be optimistic, but there is a pollyannish tone to some of these posts that just does not comport with this year's reality. We are a .500 team with one really good win, by one point on our home court, and some abominable losses. Carolina is not a good team this year, but they are world's ahead of us. We'll be somewhat older and more mature next year, but still one of the youngest teams in the conference and the NCAA. We have dug a deep hole with constant reliance on one year wonders to the point where our experienced players just don't match up with other teams. Somehow other schools manage to put together consistent programs without OADs. We used to. We don't.

I hate to agree here.

[Kedsy]

Didn’t feel like an anomaly to me at all. This team came out poorly lots of times this year. Again tonight. Shot poorly many times this year. Again tonight. Careless turnovers all year. Again tonight. Lack of focus and effort defensively many times this year. Again tonight. No floor generalship or distribution from our point guards all year. Again tonight. Inability to finish plays at the rim all year. Again tonight.

I know everything you've said seems true, but in fact, our shooting percentage at the rim (64.0%) is our 4th-best in the past decade (2019 was 1st, 2018, and 2015 were tied for 2nd). Against UNC tonight we shot 55% on two-pointers (including 2pt jumpers, so presumably higher at the rim). Finishing at the rim really hasn't been our problem.

Similarly, our assist% (percentage of baskets that were assisted) this season is the 2nd-best in the past 10 years; the problem hasn't been distribution, it's been the fact that nobody on the team is very good at creating their own shots (an issue that shouldn't be a problem next season). Our turnover percentage is a little worse but pretty comparable to most other recent seasons as well. Basically, our problems this season have been inconsistent shooting (should probably be better next season but still may be a concern) and poor defense (should hopefully be a strength next season).

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I know everything you've said seems true, but in fact, our shooting percentage at the rim (64.0%) is our 4th-best in the past decade (2019 was 1st, 2018, and 2015 were tied for 2nd). Against UNC tonight we shot 55% on two-pointers (including 2pt jumpers, so presumably higher at the rim). Finishing at the rim really hasn't been our problem.

Similarly, our assist% (percentage of baskets that were assisted) this season is the 2nd-best in the past 10 years; the problem hasn't been distribution, it's been the fact that nobody on the team is very good at creating their own shots (an issue that shouldn't be a problem next season). Our turnover percentage is a little worse but pretty comparable to most other recent seasons as well. Basically, our problems this season have been inconsistent shooting (should probably be better next season but still may be a concern) and poor defense (should hopefully be a strength next season).

As far as "finishing at the rim" through your stats - just looking at FG% doesn't capture:
- Driving to the basket, losing the ball out of bounds.
- Driving to the basket, throwing the ball out to the top of the key because there is nowhere to go.
- Driving the the basket, getting the ball stolen before getting a shot up.
- Driving the the basket, having a 24 second shot clock violation.

Those sequential shot clock violations were killers. How many possessions did we go without hitting the rim? Felt like easily 8-10 total and three or four in a row.

[dukelifer]

That’s a reflection of the mediocrity of most of our opponents more than anything. I’m taking about the WAY that we played which for the most part this year has been pretty poor in the areas that I mentioned plus others I didn’t. Again, some good stretches and some bright spots here and there but overall the team
showed lots of significant problems from very early in the season until and including today. There’s an awful lot of work to be done here. A lot.

Yes- Duke was mediocre or slightly more so in a mediocre ACC in a crazy year with no fans and with players living in social isolation for months. I will wait until next year to determine if this is an issue with the talent level or if it was just an issue with youth and inexperience. Duke does not match up well with UNC but has hung in there against most every other team in the ACC that they played.

[roywhite]

Yes- Duke was mediocre or slightly more so in a mediocre ACC in a crazy year with no fans and with players living in social isolation for months. I will wait until next year to determine if this is an issue with the talent level or if it was just an issue with youth and inexperience. Duke does not match up well with UNC but has hung in there against most every other team in the ACC that they played.

Yeah, consider this -- our seasons are seldom similar to the one previous. The 2020-21 season was not like the 2019-20 season, which was not like the 2018-19 season, etc.

Anticipation of the 2021-22 Duke season with a new mix of talent and veterans along with the expectation of fans returning to the arena will get me through the off-season.

[Dr. Maturin]

I don't want to wade into the endless 1 and done debate. I will say, however, that one struggle has been getting quality experienced players to play alongside the 1 and dones (How unstoppable would that Zion team have been with an upperclassmen guard like Cook or Matt Jones?)

Next year, we'll have two big time talents coming in. Unlike some recent years, they'll join a number of returning players who are ready to contribute. Rather than having to forge a brand new team, we have something of a cohesive unit to build on. There are still some questions(Can anyone step up as a leader? Will our defense make a big enough jump?), but next year will be much better.

[dukelifer]

I don't want to wade into the endless 1 and done debate. I will say, however, that one struggle has been getting quality experienced players to play alongside the 1 and dones (How unstoppable would that Zion team have been with an upperclassmen guard like Cook or Matt Jones?)

Next year, we'll have two big time talents coming in. Unlike some recent years, they'll join a number of returning players who are ready to contribute. Rather than having to forge a brand new team, we have something of a cohesive unit to build on. There are still some questions(Can anyone step up as a leader? Will our defense make a big enough jump?), but next year will be much better.

The big surprise was Gary Trent- leaving early. He would have made a huge difference. But he bet on himself and looks like he was correct in doing so.

[kshepinthehouse]

The big surprise was Gary Trent- leaving early. He would have made a huge difference. But he bet on himself and looks like he was correct in doing so.

It wasn’t THAT big of a surprise was it?

[dukelifer]

It wasn’t THAT big of a surprise was it?

Usually kids jump when they are going to be a lottery pick- so yes I was surprised. Duke not had many that were probable second rounders leave early.

[DukieInBrasil]

Followed by AJ Griffin.

I wouldn’t sleep on sophomore DJ Steward either. And I am not ready to write off Roach as a sophomore.

I too am not willing to write them off for next year either. I also think Roach will be a decent player, although he wasn't the player this team needed and is still quite redundant in skill set to DJ. Even if the only change to their games is to reduce the inconsistency, that'll be a good step forward. From my view, what both need is to just be stronger since neither is quick enough to compensate for the lack of strength.

Didn’t feel like an anomaly to me at all. This team came out poorly lots of times this year. Again tonight. Shot poorly many times this year. Again tonight. Careless turnovers all year. Again tonight. Lack of focus and effort defensively many times this year. Again tonight. No floor generalship or distribution from our point guards all year. Again tonight. Inability to finish plays at the rim all year. Again tonight.
We’ve had a few high points where we’ve strung together good stretches and won some games. But playing like this was more of a norm and less of an anomaly when we’re honest with ourselves. Which is why we’re a .500 team in a mediocre ACC.
I see brighter days ahead but the stretches this year of sustained high level play were few and far between.

Your observations align with mine. The most frustrating unchanging weakness of the team was the starting poorly, which often played out by looking uncertain, even frightened, weak, and passive to start the game. Basically, Duke let the opponent define the level of energy needed to win, and then played at that level for the rest of the game. Which was just good enough to lose. If there's one thing that needs to change for next year's team to be successful, it's that.

[SamHouston]

I think Duke is going to be excellent next year. I think Williams can run like a gazelle and has good hands. Works hard and is going to be legit stud when he polishes his post moves. Roach and Steward are going to be excellent and I like Moore to grow as well. Add in the freshmen and I see a fantastic team.

Who is going to rebound besides Williams? I would like to see Hurt stay another year. He struggled against the kinds of athletic guys he will be competing against in the future.

[SamHouston]

This year we unsuccessfully recruited Cunningham, Kuminga, Brandon Boston, Ziaire Williams, Kessler who was at one point a top-10 player, and Hunter Dickinson (not sure how serious that recruitment ever got). Last season we offered Nico Mannion, Brian Antoine, Scotty Lewis, Isaiah Stewart, and Josiah James. So yeah, we haven’t stopped recruiting OAD’s.

Cunningham was a huge miss!

[CameronDuke]

The one and done model as Duke’s primary recruiting strategy and their reliance on it took a huge hit this year in terms of success measured by wins and losses. The team lacks a leader and group of veteran bookends that can be relied on to lead. Player development over the course of 4 years at Duke has really decreased since Duke began relying on the one and done model. Duke has talented players, that’s for sure. Let’s not forget that with freshmen leading the way this program won an ACC title in 2017 and 2019 and went to the elite eight in 2018 and 2019. But in 2020-2021, I think the lack of player development, upperclassmen, and experience finally caught up to Duke. I don’t see as much cohesiveness and ownership of the program when I watch the games as I used to. The coaching staff tries to implement some types of pillars, expectations, strategy, principles, and consistent approaches but the team just looks like they play a totally different brand of basketball nearly each time they take the floor. Compare that to how a team like UVa plays. We know what we’re going to get from UVa each time they play. They’re going to pretty much play the same style of basketball, run the same sets on offense, play the same type of defense with the same principles generally, and make minor adjustments based off personnel and who their opponent is. Duke, to me, has gotten away from consistent approaches and instead try to recruit the most talented players they can get whether or not they player fits into any sort of system or approach Duke wants to play with. What would someone consider a strength of Duke this season? What are Duke’s pillars? What can we rely on Duke to do every game even if shots aren’t falling or Duke encounters adversity?

Who was the last player that stayed 4 years and was a contributor, leader, and alpha? Allen? Cook? Maybe one or two in the last 6-7 seasons? Duke has had guys stay 3-4 years but haven’t really developed into studs (White, DeLaurier come to mind) during that time span.

Back in the day, Duke was led by studs as juniors and seniors. Battier, James, Scheyer, Singler, Smith, Duhon come to mind. Duke doesn’t have juniors and seniors like that anymore. Duke’s most talented and successful players primarily are new guys these days. It worked in 2015 in terms of winning a national title, we can’t forget that. Duke was a basket away from the final four in 2018 and 2019 with lots of freshmen leading the way. But this year the trend isn’t looking good for the trajectory of the program based on the results of Duke’s strategy. Where does Duke go from here?

[dm9e24]

I consider this the best forum out there with very astute, intelligent posters. Some, somewhat on the snobbish side. So please talk me off the ledge here.

I am not sure I have ever seen a season that Coach K seemed so disengaged. He questioned playing at all in November. The passion just didn't seem to be there this year. In other years, he would have never let that awful call on Hurt's last foul on Tuesday go by with just a shrug. Last night he looked more like a fan on the bench watching his favorite team implode. Like a lot of fans watching on TV last night. It is March, with the 2021 recruiting class pretty much put to bed and no mention of any 2022 prospects. Coach always has said that he would coach until the passion was no longer there.

Was it the pandemic, the political atmosphere that engulfed the University as well as the team. The fact that the University did not want to play this season. A one and done player opting out. At Duke. Never thought I would ever see that in a culture built around a fist.

I am sure that Coach K will be here for next year's team. And it has the potential to be the opposite of this year's season. A realistic shot at a FF. I look forward to the off season with hope, but also with a little trepidation. What if the university decides against summer school and the team reports late like they did this year. Later than most of the rest of the country. With the crazy transfer rules that the NCAA has put in, I never can rule out a kid leaving Duke. Or leaving to be a second round, or worse, pick. Like I said, I never would have expected a player to opt out on a Coach K team. Another Fall in the Washington Duke Inn. So many challenges factored into this years .500 team. Could next year's team experience the same. And will it be K's last. The next 8 months will be interesting.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I consider this the best forum out there with very astute, intelligent posters. Some, somewhat on the snobbish side. So please talk me off the ledge here.

I am not sure I have ever seen a season that Coach K seemed so disengaged. He questioned playing at all in November. The passion just didn't seem to be there this year. In other years, he would have never let that awful call on Hurt's last foul on Tuesday go by with just a shrug. Last night he looked more like a fan on the bench watching his favorite team implode. Like a lot of fans watching on TV last night. It is March, with the 2021 recruiting class pretty much put to bed and no mention of any 2022 prospects. Coach always has said that he would coach until the passion was no longer there.

Was it the pandemic, the political atmosphere that engulfed the University as well as the team. The fact that the University did not want to play this season. A one and done player opting out. At Duke. Never thought I would ever see that in a culture built around a fist.

I am sure that Coach K will be here for next year's team. And it has the potential to be the opposite of this year's season. A realistic shot at a FF. I look forward to the off season with hope, but also with a little trepidation. What if the university decides against summer school and the team reports late like they did this year. Later than most of the rest of the country. With the crazy transfer rules that the NCAA has put in, I never can rule out a kid leaving Duke. Or leaving to be a second round, or worse, pick. Like I said, I never would have expected a player to opt out on a Coach K team. Another Fall in the Washington Duke Inn. So many challenges factored into this years .500 team. Could next year's team experience the same. And will it be K's last. The next 8 months will be interesting.

Well, you laid out the situation rather nicely, so you have your frustrations as well as your explanations.

I for one have no problem with the school/coach/players recognizing that sometimes there are things much larger than winning college basketball games.

If K is a self-described "leader of men," this is an important lesson. Public health, personal health, social injustice - these things have a much longer and larger arc that any individual game or season.

I hope things are normalized next season of course. If not, we will see what happens.

Am I disappointed by the outcomes of this season? Of course. But I'm proud of the decisions and priorities that the university and the athletic programs have shown.

I'm sure many will disagree with me, but I'm fine with that too.

Go Duke! Let's get five wins in five days!

[CDu]

Who is going to rebound besides Williams? I would like to see Hurt stay another year. He struggled against the kinds of athletic guys he will be competing against in the future.

Banchero will rebound, as will Griffin. Moore and Steward are good rebounders for their positions. If Coleman sees an expanded role, he is a very good rebounder.