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  1. #1

    next season

    just a theory on recruiting this year and next year:

    last year the "buzz" was the top rated high school players were going to go to the d league, australia... That, coupled with multiple one and dones leaving each year, may have impacted Coach K's recruiting strategy. It takes a couple of years for the strategy to take effect but next year we can get to see the results. Instead of a freshman driving team next year's team will have sophomore starting guards (roach and stewart), veteran small forwards (Moore and Baker), sophomore big men (Williams and Coleman) AND at least two potential one and done freshman. A much better balanced lineup and built for the future

    I cannot glean the following year but next year makes a lot of sense

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by dukeinla View Post
    just a theory on recruiting this year and next year:

    last year the "buzz" was the top rated high school players were going to go to the d league, australia... That, coupled with multiple one and dones leaving each year, may have impacted Coach K's recruiting strategy. It takes a couple of years for the strategy to take effect but next year we can get to see the results. Instead of a freshman driving team next year's team will have sophomore starting guards (roach and stewart), veteran small forwards (Moore and Baker), sophomore big men (Williams and Coleman) AND at least two potential one and done freshman. A much better balanced lineup and built for the future

    I cannot glean the following year but next year makes a lot of sense
    Well, except that our two best players (and possibly our top 4 players) will be freshmen.

    We didnít change our recruiting philosophy. We just had a couple of years where we didnít land multiple top-10 talents. But we will be back to landing multiple top-10s with the incoming class.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    We didnít change our recruiting philosophy. We just had a couple of years where we didnít land multiple top-10 talents. But we will be back to landing multiple top-10s with the incoming class.
    This year we unsuccessfully recruited Cunningham, Kuminga, Brandon Boston, Ziaire Williams, Kessler who was at one point a top-10 player, and Hunter Dickinson (not sure how serious that recruitment ever got). Last season we offered Nico Mannion, Brian Antoine, Scotty Lewis, Isaiah Stewart, and Josiah James. So yeah, we havenít stopped recruiting OADís.

  4. #4

    next season

    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    While I think itís still WAY too early to think about next season, I agree with the prevailing wisdom that next years squad has the potential to be fantastic if roster turnover and player development goes largely as expected. Iím especially excited to see what type of players Williams and Coleman become in Duke uniforms.

    But thereís still a lot of basketball to go THIS year.
    I am not giving up on this year's team- I was talking more about the recruiting philosophy. Go Duke

  5. #5

    Next year's team...

    For those of you thinking about next year's lineup being a little older and more mature with Roach and Steward in the backcourt for a second year, I'd ask you this - what makes you think either (or both) of those two will be back next year? Haven't we already seen over the past 5+ years that it doesn't matter how effective you are during the season, or whether you are guaranteed a spot in the first round, kids (generally) leave early when they plan to leave early. And you'd have to believe that both Roach and Steward came into this season with the realistic expectation of this being their only year at Duke. Not saying that they're leaving, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if at least one of them did.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by troach42 View Post
    For those of you thinking about next year's lineup being a little older and more mature with Roach and Steward in the backcourt for a second year, I'd ask you this - what makes you think either (or both) of those two will be back next year? Haven't we already seen over the past 5+ years that it doesn't matter how effective you are during the season, or whether you are guaranteed a spot in the first round, kids (generally) leave early when they plan to leave early. And you'd have to believe that both Roach and Steward came into this season with the realistic expectation of this being their only year at Duke. Not saying that they're leaving, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if at least one of them did.
    I see what you are saying, but given where this team is and how the two of them have performed in big games thus far - I don't see them getting selected.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by troach42 View Post
    For those of you thinking about next year's lineup being a little older and more mature with Roach and Steward in the backcourt for a second year, I'd ask you this - what makes you think either (or both) of those two will be back next year? Haven't we already seen over the past 5+ years that it doesn't matter how effective you are during the season, or whether you are guaranteed a spot in the first round, kids (generally) leave early when they plan to leave early. And you'd have to believe that both Roach and Steward came into this season with the realistic expectation of this being their only year at Duke. Not saying that they're leaving, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if at least one of them did.
    Nothing would surprise me, but I'd expect at least Roach to be back. Steward feels more iffy, if only because he's shot it a bit better from the perimeter. Neither kid came in with one-and-done type of hype, so while I can't say for sure their mindset it would be surprising if they did think of themselves as likely one-and-dones. If I had to guess, both will be back. But I wouldn't be completely shocked if any player leaves.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Nothing would surprise me, but I'd expect at least Roach to be back. Steward feels more iffy, if only because he's shot it a bit better from the perimeter. Neither kid came in with one-and-done type of hype, so while I can't say for sure their mindset it would be surprising if they did think of themselves as likely one-and-dones. If I had to guess, both will be back. But I wouldn't be completely shocked if any player leaves.
    The bigger concern is not OAD to the NBA but transferring out for a better fit or a different college environment. None of the Freshman truly got a Duke experience as a player or student and I wonder if that will come into play. Roach is not an NBA player but could be a very good college player - Steward could sneak into the second round- Hurt is a second rounder who needs to decide if he wants to one day be ACC player of the year or hope he play enough D and be a sharpshooter from the NBA three to have any career in the NBA- but may be better suited to Europe. Johnson is a first round project - but certainly NBA material- and Moore is going to have to work on his shot and handle to have any chance of playing in the NBA- both challenging tasks. The NBA is not for everyone. All three Duke players that left last year cannot even get on the floor in NBA competition yet would be dominating in the ACC this year.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    The bigger concern is not OAD to the NBA but transferring out for a better fit or a different college environment. None of the Freshman truly got a Duke experience as a player or student and I wonder if that will come into play. Roach is not an NBA player but could be a very good college player - Steward could sneak into the second round- Hurt is a second rounder who needs to decide if he wants to one day be ACC player of the year or hope he play enough D and be a sharpshooter from the NBA three to have any career in the NBA- but may be better suited to Europe. Johnson is a first round project - but certainly NBA material- and Moore is going to have to work on his shot and handle to have any chance of playing in the NBA- both challenging tasks. The NBA is not for everyone. All three Duke players that left last year cannot even get on the floor in NBA competition yet would be dominating in the ACC this year.
    And... we all know that any sort of rumors about transfers will result in a sound pummeling from mods.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    The bigger concern is not OAD to the NBA but transferring out for a better fit or a different college environment. None of the Freshman truly got a Duke experience as a player or student and I wonder if that will come into play. Roach is not an NBA player but could be a very good college player - Steward could sneak into the second round- Hurt is a second rounder who needs to decide if he wants to one day be ACC player of the year or hope he play enough D and be a sharpshooter from the NBA three to have any career in the NBA- but may be better suited to Europe. Johnson is a first round project - but certainly NBA material- and Moore is going to have to work on his shot and handle to have any chance of playing in the NBA- both challenging tasks. The NBA is not for everyone. All three Duke players that left last year cannot even get on the floor in NBA competition yet would be dominating in the ACC this year.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    And... we all know that any sort of rumors about transfers will result in a sound pummeling from mods.
    Yes. As it should. But I donít think dukeliferís post was anywhere close to rumor-mongering. I actually agree with most everything he stated. Iím not ďfeelingĒ (fwtw) any transfer vibes this year. Donít think that will be an issue. Guys leaving early? Definitely possible. I think itís all but a foregone conclusion JJ will go. And he should. The two question marks are indeed Steward and Hurt. If they return, we have a really solid team next year. If either or, God forbid, both decide to go it will take us down a few notches in terms of potential next season. Like dukelifer stated, both are no better than 2nd round projects at this point. And as weíve seen recently, thatís often enough incentive for some young men to leave. But thereís still games to be played this season, so Iím hopeful none of these players are looking that far ahead yet.

    Go Duke!!!

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    Yes. As it should. But I donít think dukeliferís post was anywhere close to rumor-mongering. I actually agree with most everything he stated. Iím not ďfeelingĒ (fwtw) any transfer vibes this year. Donít think that will be an issue. Guys leaving early? Definitely possible. I think itís all but a foregone conclusion JJ will go. And he should. The two question marks are indeed Steward and Hurt. If they return, we have a really solid team next year. If either or, God forbid, both decide to go it will take us down a few notches in terms of potential next season. Like dukelifer stated, both are no better than 2nd round projects at this point. And as weíve seen recently, thatís often enough incentive for some young men to leave. But thereís still games to be played this season, so Iím hopeful none of these players are looking that far ahead yet.

    Go Duke!!!
    Didn't mean to suggest that dukelifer was crossing that line. Just a reminder to everyone - especially some of the newer, very negative posters that have popped up as late.

    Statistically it is likely we get a transfer after this season. But it won't be discussed here until after it is public.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    And... we all know that any sort of rumors about transfers will result in a sound pummeling from mods.
    Yes- this is a general concern regarding the recent changes and proposed changes to transfer rules. Also this could both help and hurt a place like Duke.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    Yes- this is a general concern regarding the recent changes and proposed changes to transfer rules. Also this could both help and hurt a place like Duke.
    Agreed. Also, the extra eligibility year for this season will create complicated log jams on some rosters. It will be awhile before we get "normal" again as a sport.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    My (likely) unpopular opinion for next year is that we need to get in on the grad transfer market for a point guard or combo guard. I could see Jeremy Roach greatly improving in his second year, but I believe we need insurance in case that doesn't happen. We'll be losing Goldwire, so unless we plan on playing Michael Savarino rotation minutes, I think getting another veteran guard could pay off.
    it was already mentioned, but there is no guarantee JGold is leaving. He's a great defensive player, and is acceptable at a few things on offense. But if he wants to pursue a career as a coach, hanging around Coach K for another year could really pay off.

    Quote Originally Posted by troach42 View Post
    For those of you thinking about next year's lineup being a little older and more mature with Roach and Steward in the backcourt for a second year, I'd ask you this - what makes you think either (or both) of those two will be back next year? Haven't we already seen over the past 5+ years that it doesn't matter how effective you are during the season, or whether you are guaranteed a spot in the first round, kids (generally) leave early when they plan to leave early. And you'd have to believe that both Roach and Steward came into this season with the realistic expectation of this being their only year at Duke. Not saying that they're leaving, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if at least one of them did.
    again, already pointed out by others, but Roach is certainly not on anybody's draft boards, and Steward was on some earlier in the year, but appears to either not be on any or only on a couple as a 2nd rounder. I am much higher on DJ's potential than Roach's, but even so, unless he develops into a dead-eye 3pt shooter it's hard to see how he fills a role in the NBA.

  15. #15
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by DukieInBrasil View Post
    it was already mentioned, but there is no guarantee JGold is leaving. He's a great defensive player, and is acceptable at a few things on offense. But if he wants to pursue a career as a coach, hanging around Coach K for another year could really pay off.


    again, already pointed out by others, but Roach is certainly not on anybody's draft boards, and Steward was on some earlier in the year, but appears to either not be on any or only on a couple as a 2nd rounder. I am much higher on DJ's potential than Roach's, but even so, unless he develops into a dead-eye 3pt shooter it's hard to see how he fills a role in the NBA.
    Not only his shooting and his ability to dish need to improve. But it's his body. How many 165 pound guys are there in the NBA? Not many. DJ needs to work on his body. Hopefully some will be a natural filling out, though he has a narrow frame, and some is going to be on him to add muscle.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    Not only his shooting and his ability to dish need to improve. But it's his body. How many 165 pound guys are there in the NBA? Not many. DJ needs to work on his body. Hopefully some will be a natural filling out, though he has a narrow frame, and some is going to be on him to add muscle.
    His height and weight could be acceptable if he was in the upper <1% of quickness, along the lines of Iverson. Really, DJ needs to be either hyper-elite at one (or more) skill(s), like 3pt shooting, or well above-average in multiple skills to make the NBA with his frame. So far, DJ has been a decent college player, in fact quite good as far as Fr. go, but he hasn't displayed a single elite skill yet. If he was a defensive savant with above average shooting skills, he could find a home in the NBA, but he hasn't shown that yet either. The season's not over, and he can still show substantial improvement as a shooter, ball-handler or defender, but that would also be a very rare mid-season skill growth spurt. I think he could be an exceptional player for Duke next year...

  17. #17
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    I’ve beaten this drum many times before, but the answer to the question of whether a player should go is not “could they step onto an NBA court right now?” but rather “how much do they stand to gain by returning?” and “will they earn a second contract after their rookie deal expires?” Steward is not going to get taller. Saying he should stay because he’s only 6’1 or 6’2 is a flawed argument, unless you think he’s going to grow in the next year. For the guys that left last year, we won’t know if it was the right decision until two or three years from now when it comes time for them to sign their next deals. If they don’t get a deal and wind up out of the league like William Avery or Trevon Duval, then you could say they should have stayed and put themselves in a better chance to succeed. If they sign big deals like Gary Trent is about to do, then it was the right decision. It doesn’t matter that Trent spent his first season in the G league, he’s in a better position now than if he had stayed and “lost” a year of NBA salary. Maybe staying another year would have elevated his draft stock, but to that I would say a.) maybe it wouldn’t, and b.) the odds of significantly climbing in the draft are low. Saying a player should stay because it would make Duke better is a selfish argument (I don’t mean that personally, just that it’s not the viewpoint of the player).

    I don’t think Steward should go, because I think he’d be out of the league in two years. By staying I think he’d be in a position where a team that did draft him would be more committed to giving him a chance, and he’d be more likely to be competitive against G league opponents which he is not right now. So I agree with most of you, but not for the same reasons. And I’ve been wrong before. Some guys really do enjoy college and stay for that reason, like Grayson did twice, and that makes everybody happy.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Iíve beaten this drum many times before, but the answer to the question of whether a player should go is not ďcould they step onto an NBA court right now?Ē but rather ďhow much do they stand to gain by returning?Ē and ďwill they earn a second contract after their rookie deal expires?Ē Steward is not going to get taller. Saying he should stay because heís only 6í1 or 6í2 is a flawed argument, unless you think heís going to grow in the next year. For the guys that left last year, we wonít know if it was the right decision until two or three years from now when it comes time for them to sign their next deals. If they donít get a deal and wind up out of the league like William Avery or Trevon Duval, then you could say they should have stayed and put themselves in a better chance to succeed. If they sign big deals like Gary Trent is about to do, then it was the right decision. It doesnít matter that Trent spent his first season in the G league, heís in a better position now than if he had stayed and ďlostĒ a year of NBA salary. Maybe staying another year would have elevated his draft stock, but to that I would say a.) maybe it wouldnít, and b.) the odds of significantly climbing in the draft are low. Saying a player should stay because it would make Duke better is a selfish argument (I donít mean that personally, just that itís not the viewpoint of the player).

    I donít think Steward should go, because I think heíd be out of the league in two years. By staying I think heíd be in a position where a team that did draft him would be more committed to giving him a chance, and heíd be more likely to be competitive against G league opponents which he is not right now. So I agree with most of you, but not for the same reasons. And Iíve been wrong before. Some guys really do enjoy college and stay for that reason, like Grayson did twice, and that makes everybody happy.
    Yes Yes Yes. 100% agree here. This isn't about whether or not Roach or Steward can play in the league or stick in the league (or even get drafted). These kids are making a decision about their careers. They love the game of basketball and perhaps want to make a living playing it. The dream scenario is the NBA. But that isn't likely in the cards for most of the kids in the NCAA (hell - you could argue that this year's team doesn't have a single NBA player on it, and I wouldn't fight you over that statement). Staying at Duke another year may increase the chance of earning a big(ger) salary in professional basketball, or it may not. Earning ANY salary from playing basketball may be more valuable to any of these kids than staying in college for another year.

    We as fans have a tendency sometimes to look at these kids and imagine how amazing it must be to play at Duke, and how it factors into their decision about their future whether or not Duke basketball will be a National Title contender next season. That doesn't matter a lick. And it shouldn't.

    I don't know what Hurt, Steward, Johnson, or Roach is thinking about where they will be playing basketball in 2022. I feel VERY confident that not a single one of those guys will be playing in the NBA next year. But I'm equally as confident that this fact won't make a lick of difference in their deciding whether to stay at Duke for 2022 or leave to start a pro career (somewhere...).

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by troach42 View Post
    Yes Yes Yes. 100% agree here. This isn't about whether or not Roach or Steward can play in the league or stick in the league (or even get drafted). These kids are making a decision about their careers. They love the game of basketball and perhaps want to make a living playing it. The dream scenario is the NBA. But that isn't likely in the cards for most of the kids in the NCAA (hell - you could argue that this year's team doesn't have a single NBA player on it, and I wouldn't fight you over that statement). Staying at Duke another year may increase the chance of earning a big(ger) salary in professional basketball, or it may not. Earning ANY salary from playing basketball may be more valuable to any of these kids than staying in college for another year.

    We as fans have a tendency sometimes to look at these kids and imagine how amazing it must be to play at Duke, and how it factors into their decision about their future whether or not Duke basketball will be a National Title contender next season. That doesn't matter a lick. And it shouldn't.

    I don't know what Hurt, Steward, Johnson, or Roach is thinking about where they will be playing basketball in 2022. I feel VERY confident that not a single one of those guys will be playing in the NBA next year. But I'm equally as confident that this fact won't make a lick of difference in their deciding whether to stay at Duke for 2022 or leave to start a pro career (somewhere...).
    If Jalen Johnson isn't on an NBA roster next season then some NBA team will have wasted a lottery pick.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by troach42 View Post
    I don't know what Hurt, Steward, Johnson, or Roach is thinking about where they will be playing basketball in 2022. I feel VERY confident that not a single one of those guys will be playing in the NBA next year.
    This is a really flawed take. Jalen Johnson will 100% be playing in the NBA next year. NBA scouts, who get paid a lot of money to be a lot smarter about this than any of us, unanimously agree that Jalen is a lock to be a first round draft pick. The other three have much more uncertainty -- at least in terms of the 2021-22 NBA season -- but the notion that Jalen won't be in the league next season is just plain wrong. I'd gleefully make a pie bet on this is you want.

    -Jason "I suppose there might be a tiny chance Jalen opts to stay at Duke. But if he enters the draft he will be highly drafted and will certainly be on a NBA roster in 2021-22" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

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