next season

[CDu]

Yeah, it's not crazy to think that Coleman and Brakefield could be our only two returning scholarship players after next year, but hopefully Roach, Keels (if we can land him), Williams and possibly a Steward or a Moore would also come back. I expect no matter what our coaching staff is gearing up for a big class of 2022 recruits.

There's really now way to know who will be here for the 2023 season. I mean, there's no guarantee that everyone besides Hurt and Johnson will be back next year. Let alone returnees for 2023. There is a reasonable risk that somebody transfers over the next two summers. There is a greater risk that somebody goes pro early over the next two summers. Heck, no guarantee that Coach K is even coaching in 2023 (I would expect so given that his grandson will still be there, but still).

Regardless, I'm confident that the staff has learned some lessons from this year, and will be more aggressive in the transfer and grad transfer markets over the coming seasons if they suspect some early departures.

[Duke79UNLV77]

In projecting next year, I would also note that we are not as bad as our record this year. Our NET ranking is surprisingly solid. We are 2-7 in games decided by 7 points or fewer, so we've been very competitive in every game except against Illinois. Plus, we very well could have gone 4-1 in our cancelled games. So, if we just wen 4-5 in close games and played our full schedule, we could be 13-7 and headed towards the tournament. We've been playing just well enough to lose close games, lacking the experience, confidence, and leadership to close games out. Throw in expected higher-level play from our freshmen this year and a good bit of returning talent and I expect us back in the national title conversation again.

[tommy]

In projecting next year, I would also note that we are not as bad as our record this year. Our NET ranking is surprisingly solid. We are 2-7 in games decided by 7 points or fewer, so we've been very competitive in every game except against Illinois. Plus, we very well could have gone 4-1 in our cancelled games. So, if we just wen 4-5 in close games and played our full schedule, we could be 13-7 and headed towards the tournament. We've been playing just well enough to lose close games, lacking the experience, confidence, and leadership to close games out. Throw in expected higher-level play from our freshmen this year and a good bit of returning talent and I expect us back in the national title conversation again.

With who I am projecting to be on the roster next season, I also expect us to be right in the middle of the national title conversation.

As to this year, though, recall Bill Parcells. I don't believe he is wrong:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1dtAVNEnkQ

[Edouble]

Last night was the first game where the idea crossed my mind that Mark Williams could declare for the draft this spring.

[budwom]

Last night was the first game where the idea crossed my mind that Mark Williams could declare for the draft this spring.

Yeah, I found myself thinking "be really really good, but not crazy good, Mark." I suspect he'll stick around, but his play of late has been a real eye opener. It's like the light switch has gone on.

[JasonEvans]

Yeah, I found myself thinking "be really really good, but not crazy good, Mark." I suspect he'll stick around, but his play of late has been a real eye opener. It's like the light switch has gone on.

It is worth noting that, thanks to Elizabeth, the family has some decent money coming in so it is not like Mark needs to rush to the league to help mom and pop pay the mortgage. I know Elizabeth does not make huge money in the WNBA, but it is a decent living, especially when combined with what she earns playing overseas and some -- not a lot -- of endorsement money.

[jimsumner]

It is worth noting that, thanks to Elizabeth, the family has some decent money coming in so it is not like Mark needs to rush to the league to help mom and pop pay the mortgage. I know Elizabeth does not make huge money in the WNBA, but it is a decent living, especially when combined with what she earns playing overseas and some -- not a lot -- of endorsement money.

Their father, Dr. Alex Williams, is a Gastroenterology Specialist in the Virginia Tidewater. This is a family that values education and is not short of money.

[uh_no]

It is worth noting that, thanks to Elizabeth, the family has some decent money coming in so it is not like Mark needs to rush to the league to help mom and pop pay the mortgage. I know Elizabeth does not make huge money in the WNBA, but it is a decent living, especially when combined with what she earns playing overseas and some -- not a lot -- of endorsement money.

the fact that, as jim notes, they're not really hurting for money aside,

women's basketball is not a BAD living. I mean you're not making a gazillion bucks, but WNBA + overseas is a good income. Yeah, you have all the bad that comes with playing sports for a living, but hey, you get to play your sport for a living. I'd rather be a professional women's Bball player than a minor league baseball player, for instance.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

This thread has slowed a bit in the last ten days. Strange.

[DukieTiger]

This thread has slowed a bit in the last ten days. Strange.

Folks probably mourning that Jalen Johnson won’t be on next season’s roster.

[Skydog]

Last night was the first game where the idea crossed my mind that Mark Williams could declare for the draft this spring.

Yeah, I found myself thinking "be really really good, but not crazy good, Mark." I suspect he'll stick around, but his play of late has been a real eye opener. It's like the light switch has gone on.

Same thought during game - “Yay! He’s looking incredible! ... Oh no, his draft stock just went up and we may lose him!”

[dm9e24]

Mark played 6 minutes against a top 10 team in Virginia. Seems like every time a Duke kid has a great game, he is on his way to the NBA. I don't know how many times DJ has been in and out of the draft this year

[Edouble]

Mark played 6 minutes against a top 10 team in Virginia. Seems like every time a Duke kid has a great game, he is on his way to the NBA. I don't know how many times DJ has been in and out of the draft this year

This argument doesn't hold much water, IMO.

Mark showed a highly desirable, athletic, coordinated package of skills and abilities in the Syracuse game that would make scouts sit up and take notice.

I don't think any scouts will be going to their GMs five years from now saying "Sorry we missed on Mark Williams. We took him off of our draft board because he only played six minutes against Virginia".

[uh_no]

This argument doesn't hold much water, IMO.

Mark showed a highly desirable, athletic, coordinated package of skills and abilities in the Syracuse game that would make scouts sit up and take notice.

I don't think any scouts will be going to their GMs five years from now saying "Sorry we missed on Mark Williams. We took him off of our draft board because he only played six minutes against Virginia".

There are plenty of past duke players who didn't have NBA careers of whom you could find 6 minutes of highlights.

[Edouble]

There are plenty of past duke players who didn't have NBA careers of whom you could find 6 minutes of highlights.

I think you've actually got our points backwards.

[Acymetric]

There are plenty of past duke players who didn't have NBA careers of whom you could find 6 minutes of highlights.

There are also plenty of players who were drafted highly based on showing flashes in limited college time who then didn't turn out to have NBA careers. Your point doesn't really say anything...the NBA, as always, loves to draft on "potential" and "not enough playing time" isn't necessarily enough to counter that.

[dukelifer]

Last night was the first game where the idea crossed my mind that Mark Williams could declare for the draft this spring.

He has certainly garnered attention and as it has been said before- it is hard to teach 7 feet. But Williams has to get bigger and stronger to be able to play at the next level. Against a possible NBA prospect in Huff - he struggled. I suspect teams are intrigued and he could test the waters but I would say he needs 2 more years.

[kAzE]

If Mark Williams continues his current level of play through the end of the season and in to the postseason, it would definitely not surprise me if he was one and done. He's obviously got NBA potential, which is the only thing NBA teams care about, and he's most likely going to have to compete with Paolo Banchero for minutes in the front court next season. They could possibly play together, and maybe they could be similar to the Bagley/Carter front court, but it won't be an ideal fit. I could see him staying or leaving.

[CDu]

He has certainly garnered attention and as it has been said before- it is hard to teach 7 feet. But Williams has to get bigger and stronger to be able to play at the next level. Against a possible NBA prospect in Huff - he struggled. I suspect teams are intrigued and he could test the waters but I would say he needs 2 more years.

Yeah, he's certainly on the NBA radar given not just his height but his very long arms. The question will be how willing a team would be to pay for Williams' physical development before he is NBA ready, versus waiting another year or two and getting more cost-controlled years with value. Williams would be completely unplayable in the NBA right now, and likely would be next year as well. As Tacko Fall has shown, being super-tall and super-long-armed isn't enough. You have to show the coordination and lateral agility to defend away from the rim. And most of Williams' work has been very close to the rim.

That's not to say he won't get there in a year or two. As an analyst said during a recent game, he's like a great Dane puppy who hasn't quite mastered his body: when he does, look out. Just that it is an open question as to whether a team will want to get him now versus wait a year or two so they get more use out of him on his rookie deal. It just takes one team, obviousy, so I can't rule it out. But barring a monstrous finish to this year I would expect him here next year. But I would not guarantee it.

[uh_no]

There are also plenty of players who were drafted highly based on showing flashes in limited college time who then didn't turn out to have NBA careers. Your point doesn't really say anything...the NBA, as always, loves to draft on "potential" and "not enough playing time" isn't necessarily enough to counter that.

right, but 6 minutes of playing time isn't going to suddenly make people recognize potential either. or more generally, 6 minutes of playing time isn't going to change anybody's opinion of anything when it comes to NBA potential or readiness, good or bad. As CDu points out, he's likely on the radar, but that was true before uva. And he is likely viewed as not ready, and 6 minutes vs uva doesn't change any of that analysis.