next season

[TywinBlue]

I may be old fashioned, but I never start a new book until I finish the one in my hands.

I may be unhappy with the story, the character development and can anticipate the ending, but the story is not over until the last page of the last chapter is read.

This thread is very premature and insulting to our student-athletes wearing a Duke uniform busting their butts to get better.

Show some patience and let their story end first, please.

[Edouble]

I know you were not addressing it, but I think there is a really interesting argument about Gary Trent's NBA draft decision.

Now, the impossible thing to figure out is what his draft stock would have been in the 2019 draft. He would have played that season with Zion, RJ, Cam, and Tre. His outside shooting would have been a huge boost to that team and it is not at all hard to see them winning a national title with him on the team. I think he would have improved his stock (and maybe hurt Cam's stock as I think Cam would have seen somewhat reduced minutes and certainly fewer scoring opportunities). For the sake of argument, lets say he would have played his way to be the #20 pick in the draft in the 2019 draft.

Here are Gary's salaries he has earned thus far as a 2018 2nd rounder versus what he would make if he had been the #20 pick in the 2019 draft

2018-19 -- $838k vs. no salary
2019-20 -- $1.41m vs. $2.58m
2020-21 -- $1.66m vs. $2.71m
Totals --- $3.90m vs. $5.29m

So far, despite playing 3 years versus 2, Gary would make far more by staying in school for an extra year because his per year salary is vastly higher. But, the question becomes what happens to him after this season. Gary will certainly get a significant new contract. I think Seth Curry is a really good comp for Gary -- sweet shooting SGs who play solid D but aren't doing a lot more than shoot on offense. Seth signed a 4 year, $32 mil contract a year and a half ago. Gary is a little younger and there has been some salary inflation, so I am going to project Gary getting a 4 year, $40 mil deal this off season.

Suddenly, the decision to turn pro tilts in a big way.

2018-19 -- $838k vs. no salary
2019-20 -- $1.41m vs. $2.58m
2020-21 -- $1.66m vs. $2.71m
2021-22 -- $10.0m** vs. $2.84m
2022-23 -- $10.0m** vs. $4.38m
Totals --- $23.9m** vs. $12.51m
** - projected 4 year, $40 mil contract

The fact that teams get an extra year of control under a 1st round rookie contract versus a 2nd round deal is a big deal here. And, obviously, this is a very flexible comparison because we don't know where Gary would have been drafted in 2019. If he went higher in the 2019 draft -- like if he went in Cam's spot at #10 -- his annual salaries would be almost double what they would have been if he was the #20 pick. And then there is the uncertainty of how well the pro career would go. Gary's has gone about as well as anyone could have projected. If he was getting less opportunity of hitting his 3s a little bit less often, he could be looking at a pretty modest second contract.

I'm not sure if any of this post is worth anything... so speculative... but I took the time to look into it so I might as well post it.

The "Boozer Scenario". Nice post. Well thought out.

[MarkD83]

I may be old fashioned, but I never start a new book until I finish the one in my hands.

I may be unhappy with the story, the character development and can anticipate the ending, but the story is not over until the last page of the last chapter is read.

This thread is very premature and insulting to our student-athletes wearing a Duke uniform busting their butts to get better.

Show some patience and let their story end first, please.

I wholeheartedly agree with this post. I am actually having more fun watching the team because my expectations are lower and I can see players improving their games (Roach and Williams are especially fun to watch in this respect.)

[UrinalCake]

I may be old fashioned, but I never start a new book until I finish the one in my hands.

For me it’s more like reading a book and then seeing the next book in the series at the library and choosing to open it up and read the jacket so I know what to look forward to. Doesn’t change my enjoyment of the current book.

[Acymetric]

I may be old fashioned, but I never start a new book until I finish the one in my hands.

I may be unhappy with the story, the character development and can anticipate the ending, but the story is not over until the last page of the last chapter is read.

This thread is very premature and insulting to our student-athletes wearing a Duke uniform busting their butts to get better.

Show some patience and let their story end first, please.

You would be really unhappy to learn that I'm looking ahead all the way to 2023 in football.

[dm9e24]

Disagree. In 2010, Derrick Favors went third in the draft.

10 years ago Vernon is a first round pick.

A few questions:

What changed in 10 years that Vernon went from a first round pick to second round? Do you think Vernon will have the same impact his first year in the nba that Favors had?

Would Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith be juniors in this season?

[DukieInBrasil]

A few questions:

What changed in 10 years that Vernon went from a first round pick to second round? Do you think Vernon will have the same impact his first year in the nba that Favors had?

Would Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith be juniors in this season?

i think for the most part it's that the game has changed, and unless a big man has shooting touch out to the 3pt line, he's viewed as a role player and not counted on to be a star. Look at Jahlil Okafor, who is more in the mold of Favors: he was the ACC POY and after a strong rookie campaign hardly gets off the bench anymore b/c he doesn't have a perimeter game (and appears to be allergic to defense).
Now, Carey's touch does extend out to the 3pt line (at least in college) but for whatever reason he is not seen as a court-stretching big man, and therefore relegated to role-player potential. Teams are drafting for franchise level players in the lottery of the 1st round, and for at least starter level potential towards the end of the 1st round. 2nd round picks are generally for possibly a starter, and role players. 10 years ago Carey's game was much more in line with what teams were looking for from a big man, and would likely have been drafted much higher.
At least that's the way it comes across to me.

[dm9e24]

I may be old fashioned, but I never start a new book until I finish the one in my hands.

I may be unhappy with the story, the character development and can anticipate the ending, but the story is not over until the last page of the last chapter is read.

This thread is very premature and insulting to our student-athletes wearing a Duke uniform busting their butts to get better.

Show some patience and let their story end first, please.

I'm even more old fashion. I'd like to be more invested in players in Duke uniforms as opposed to a constant roster turnover every year. If Mark Few or Jay Wright or Tony Bennett can win 25+ games a year without a heavy reliance on one year players, shouldn't the greatest coach of all time be able to do the same. Have they been to as many FF's and won as many NC's as K? No. But they do win games at their universities at a pretty high rate.

I have enjoyed watching this year's roster grow as players, despite the record. And it gives me a good feeling that I will get to see then continue to grow in Durham next year. But there is that lingering question wondering if someone like Steward goes pro after this year and now you are looking to replace, late, 2/3rds of your backcourt. And Steward hasn't even made the kind of impact that you would expect an OAD to have.
Then again, neither has Johnson, who is being talked about as a lottery pick. I've seen a lot of lottery picks come out of Duke since Kyrie. I would put Jalen at the bottom of the list as far as impacts in their freshmen year. But he still has plenty of time this year to change that. He certainly has the potential. Which is why, I guess, that he is a future lottery pick.

[CDu]

A few questions:

What changed in 10 years that Vernon went from a first round pick to second round? Do you think Vernon will have the same impact his first year in the nba that Favors had?

Would Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith be juniors in this season?

A few answers:
1. The Favors vs Carey comp is challenging from two perspectives. First, there is the difference in eras. But there is also a difference between the players. Favors is extremely long (really long arms) and athletic, and as such his skill set would still translate to the NBA (in theory). You can project him as a rim runner and shotblocker, even though he can't shoot. But essentially the game changed in that teams have realized that post scoring isn't efficient. So they have gotten much better at setting up for the 3, and have gotten much better at creating matchups with guards attacking bigs off the dribble. So your bigs need to be much more adept at handling perimeter defense or they need to be absolutely elite inside (rebounding, shotblocking). On offense, because teams are realizing that post play is less efficient, you want bigs who can either shoot from the perimeter or who can play effectively in a pick and roll game. Carey doesn't really fit the NBA game yet. Favors conceptually would.

2. In the old NBA, Carey probably finds more playing time. But ultimately, he's still undersized for his position. Maybe he could have been a Boozer like player back then, though. That's probably the better stylistic comp.

3. Smith would almost certainly still be playing college ball somewhere as a junior, as he simply wasn't a great player until his junior year. Even after his junior year, it'd have been questionable given his age and lack of size. He really benefited from coming back and being a lead guard to get drafted. Had he left after his freshman or sophomore year, he'd have not gotten a sniff of the league. But by staying through his senior year, he landed a guaranteed contract.

4. Singler would have had the option to go pro after his freshman and sophomore years as the league probably would have seen him as a nice stretch 4 option. His strength and mobility would have likely been appealing in that role if the NBA had made the transition to the heavily-perimeter-oriented game in the 2000s. That said, his draft stock was probably never higher than it was after his junior year, and yet he chose to return. So maybe he'd have done the same anyway even in this era.

[Kedsy]

2017: UNC wins natty.
DBR in 2018: How come we can't recruit like UNC?
2018: Villanova wins natty
DBR in 2019: How come we can't recruit like Villanova?
2019: Virginia wins natty
DBR in 2020: How come we can't recruit like Virginia?
2021: Gonzaga #1
DBR in 2021: How come we can't recruit like Gonzaga

I'm sensing a trend.



(OK, to be fair, DBR in 2021: How come we can't recruit like Villanova, Virginia, or Gonzaga)

[MarkD83]

2017: UNC wins natty.
DBR in 2018: How come we can't recruit like UNC?
2018: Villanova wins natty
DBR in 2019: How come we can't recruit like Villanova?
2019: Virginia wins natty
DBR in 2020: How come we can't recruit like Virginia?
2021: Gonzaga #1
DBR in 2021: How come we can't recruit like Gonzaga

I'm sensing a trend.



(OK, to be fair, DBR in 2021: How come we can't recruit like Villanova, Virginia, or Gonzaga)

In 2018 we were also saying "Boy am I glad we don't recruit like UVA and lose in the first round as a number 1 seed".

Perhaps the lesson is the players on this year's Duke team will remember how close they were in several games and be highly motivated for next year and the rest of this year (just like UVA).

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

2017: UNC wins natty.
DBR in 2018: How come we can't recruit like UNC?
2018: Villanova wins natty
DBR in 2019: How come we can't recruit like Villanova?
2019: Virginia wins natty
DBR in 2020: How come we can't recruit like Virginia?
2021: Gonzaga #1
DBR in 2021: How come we can't recruit like Gonzaga

I'm sensing a trend.



(OK, to be fair, DBR in 2021: How come we can't recruit like Villanova, Virginia, or Gonzaga)

I also find it perplexing why Duke isn't playing for it's 30th straight title.

[devilirium]

Actually, I don't think guard length and physicality has been our problem at all. Roach, Goldwire, and Moore are pretty stout physically and aren't getting bullied by any guards in college, and Moore and Steward are plenty long to defend guards.

Our bigger issue defensively has been a lack of defensive awareness across the board, along with bigs who aren't great at defending on the perimeter. Some of the lack of awareness may be a function of new faces and changing defensive strategies multiple times this year. Some of it is that we don't have a ton of great defenders. Goldwire is certainly pesky on the perimeter, Moore is versatile although probably better against bigs than littles, Johnson is good at getting steals and blocks, and Williams is a shotchanger. But Hurt, Roach, Steward, Brakefield, and Tape are probably hurt the defense overall (Johnson might be as well depending on his awareness). Coleman might have some defensive value, but until the UNC game he's played minimally.

I'm interested to see the direction the team goes moving forward this season. Coach K is a legend, of course, but this is probably the most challenging coaching job he's had in over a decade. Between the roster turnover, the youth, the lack of multiple one-and-done talents, and the pandemic ruining preseason prep, he's got a lot on his hands. Now, he's got to get the team to come together quickly ahead of a fairly tough back end of the schedule to salvage the season.

Completely agree w the defensive unawareness. We’re learning that on the fly w youth. I get that. Other than Wendell and Williams , we don’t have a guy who can switch off and play D in the post.

But Roach and Steward are needing some more muscle. We’ve given up career highs several times this year. Ryan and Hubbs took advantage of our young guards not being able to fight over screens. The guard from Louisville. The Illinois guards, etc. And when you have smaller guys defending the wings then lobs to the middle ( see UNC as K alluded to in postgame) become easier—particularly w the in the cylinder calls that prevent up close defense ( Ie cheating) of an opponent. Thats what I’m talking about. Those two guards have the stature to put on 10-15 LBs of muscle. You could make the argument in the post as well. A full offseason of being coached, practicing together, lifting, getting more synchronized on as will help. Adding some length on the perimeter w Griffin and hopefully Baldwin ( Keels maybe) will help too.

[CDu]

Completely agree w the defensive unawareness. We’re learning that on the fly w youth. I get that. Other than Wendell and Williams , we don’t have a guy who can switch off and play D in the post.

But Roach and Steward are needing some more muscle. We’ve given up career highs several times this year. Ryan and Hubbs took advantage of our young guards not being able to fight over screens. The guard from Louisville. The Illinois guards, etc. And when you have smaller guys defending the wings then lobs to the middle ( see UNC as K alluded to in postgame) become easier—particularly w the in the cylinder calls that prevent up close defense ( Ie cheating) of an opponent. Thats what I’m talking about. Those two guards have the stature to put on 10-15 LBs of muscle. You could make the argument in the post as well. A full offseason of being coached, practicing together, lifting, getting more synchronized on as will help. Adding some length on the perimeter w Griffin and hopefully Baldwin ( Keels maybe) will help too.

I disagree. For one thing, Roach is a tank. If he added 10-15 pounds, he would be ready for the football team. Steward can certainly gain weight, but he hasn’t seemed to struggle as much with screens. So I think it isn’t physicality that is preventing our guards from getting over screens. It is a combination of strategy (our guards are taught to go over the screens, which inherently is harder) and communication/awareness. Is suspect, especially when the big is a freshman, that the communication on the screens isn’t always consistent. Combined with the lack of experience and awareness in handling college-level screens for our young guards and you get these results.

[tommy]

I disagree. For one thing, Roach is a tank. If he added 10-15 pounds, he would be ready for the football team. Steward can certainly gain weight, but he hasn’t seemed to struggle as much with screens. So I think it isn’t physicality that is preventing our guards from getting over screens. It is a combination of strategy (our guards are taught to go over the screens, which inherently is harder) and communication/awareness. Is suspect, especially when the big is a freshman, that the communication on the screens isn’t always consistent. Combined with the lack of experience and awareness in handling college-level screens for our young guards and you get these results.

Per GoDuke, Roach is 6'1" and 175 pounds. That's not a tank in my book. While I agree with you that the communication between our guards and our bigs on screens has been poor, that is but one of many issues we have had on the defensive end all year. I have thought since the first game that Roach and Steward were, both individually and as a pair, small and skinny, and to my eye they have been taken advantage of physically by stronger players on a pretty consistent basis. Both have a lot to work on in their games, and they both need to get stronger.

[DukieTiger]

2017: UNC wins natty.
DBR in 2018: How come we can't recruit like UNC?
2018: Villanova wins natty
DBR in 2019: How come we can't recruit like Villanova?
2019: Virginia wins natty
DBR in 2020: How come we can't recruit like Virginia?
2021: Gonzaga #1
DBR in 2021: How come we can't recruit like Gonzaga

I'm sensing a trend.

(OK, to be fair, DBR in 2021: How come we can't recruit like Villanova, Virginia, or Gonzaga)

You mean people sometimes look at leaders in a field and see what they can learn from them? Shocking! :-D

And I’d argue it’s more about looking at the way those teams developed players, not necessarily the recruiting philosophies, that were popping up in each of those years in your trend. Sure, it may have been expressed as anti-OAD sentiment but at its root the implied question is, where’s our Luke Maye or Joel Berry?

I also find it perplexing why Duke isn't playing for it's 30th straight title.

I think most of us just find it disappointing that Duke couldn’t get to a Final Four with any of Tatum, Bagley or Zion. This is K’s longest F4 drought since the early 80s (assuming you’ll allow me to rule out the F4 for this year’s team).

[Jaks19]

Not really sure that this year and next year's team can be compared. This year has a lot of talented players but next year has alpha studs. Both Banchero and Griffin would start this year. Also adding the likes of Keels and Baldwin make next year's roster like the one with Zion, Cam, RJ and Tre.

[Alan_Wilson]

Y



I think most of us just find it disappointing that Duke couldn’t get to a Final Four with any of Tatum, Bagley or Zion. This is K’s longest F4 drought since the early 80s (assuming you’ll allow me to rule out the F4 for this year’s team).

Well specifically, the Tatum team was a total mess with too many moving parts. I feel like K works better with less pieces, to be honest - see the 2010 team with a 7 man rotation. The Tatum team had way too many players coming in and out of the rotation that never came close to gelling defensively or offensively for that matter. No identity.

I'm still pissed about the Bagley team. Bagley was absolutely crushing it inside late against Kansas. Every single possession should have been filtered through him down the stretch. Instead, Wendell airballed a lay up (WHAT was that about) and the guards shot poorly and too often late in the game.

With the Zion/Barrett/Reddish team.. heartbreaking loss but they just couldn't shoot consistently all season and it bit us in the end.

In sum the final four drought isn't related to a OAD recruiting philosophy just execution.. although one can argue execution comes with experience.

[throatybeard]

I disagree. For one thing, Roach is a tank.

Per GoDuke, Roach is 6'1" and 175 pounds. That's not a tank in my book... I have thought since the first game that Roach and Steward were, both individually and as a pair, small and skinny, and to my eye they have been taken advantage of physically by stronger players on a pretty consistent basis.

I'm '6-0"/175. I gotta tell my best friend she can stop calling me "Skinny Binny"* and start calling me "Tank."





* -- For all the yankees in the audience, that's pin/pen merger

[CDu]

Per GoDuke, Roach is 6'1" and 175 pounds. That's not a tank in my book. While I agree with you that the communication between our guards and our bigs on screens has been poor, that is but one of many issues we have had on the defensive end all year. I have thought since the first game that Roach and Steward were, both individually and as a pair, small and skinny, and to my eye they have been taken advantage of physically by stronger players on a pretty consistent basis. Both have a lot to work on in their games, and they both need to get stronger.

You and I are clearly seeing different things then. Roach looks pretty darn thick to me. And I don't think physicality is what is giving them problems, but rather awareness/understanding.