Originally Posted by
CDu
The loss against MSU was because our team played unlike it had most of the season. We failed to force turnovers against a team that turned it over a ton, and we turned it over more against a team that didn't force turnovers. We shot better than the opponent in that game. It really came down to turnovers (17 to 7) and the team imploding for a brief stretch when our best player got called for a shaky second foul. Sometimes flukey things happen.
The loss against Kansas wasn't because we lacked shooters. It was because our shooters had bad days. Allen went 2-9, and Trent went 2-10. We were one of the better 3pt shooting teams in the country that year. That and because we didn't utilize the best player in college bball that year nearly enough in that game. Bagley took just 9 FGA compared with Trent's 18. And even with that unfortunate shooting night, if Allen's runner goes in at the end of regulation, we win.
But here's the thing. Our success from 2015-2019 IS on par with those other programs.
I don't think it is at all accurate to say that Duke is less invested in long-term player development now. And I would posit O'Connell and Baker would have gotten less attention in previous eras when we had our one-and-done talent staying 3-4 years. Back then, the only real development we were doing was of the Matthew Hurt variety: elite talent just figuring out the college game.
I don't see any reasonable argument that White wasn't a huge developmental success story. He was a complete unknown recruit who then developed into a starter on one of the best teams in the country. He was essentially the equivalent of an Andre Buckner on the recruiting trail. Same for Goldwire. That those guys were starting from so far below the talent level of a typical Duke guy doesn't mean their development wasn't incredible. Those guys were WAY below the recruiting rankings of even Luke Maye, let alone Joel Berry (who was more on par with guys like Amile Jefferson and Kennard).
As for the others, so basically you're talking about the 2016-2018 recruits. Hardly a meaningful sample size if you ask me. But let's look anyway. Note that if you exclude Kennard, you also have to exclude Jeter (they were the same class, and Jeter was a higher-rated recruit).
The 2016 class included White and DeLaurier as non top-15 recruits. White was unquestionably a developmental success, as noted above. DeLaurier went from unplayable as a freshman and developed into a role player and borderline starter as a junior and senior. His development was superior to that of a guy like Josh Hairston, for example. Not every next-tier guy makes it to stardom. I'd give 1.5 of 2 or 2 for 2 here. Bolden was a potential one-and-done guy who never really fit with Duke's style of play. So I'm not sure Duke is to blame there. But even if you want to include him, 1.5 or 2 for 3.
The 2017 class included Tucker, O'Connell, and Goldwire. Worth noting that none of these guys would have seen the floor in the 1998-2010 era of Duke basketball. They were too far down the recruiting rankings for that. So the fact that one of them (another who was the recruiting equivalent of Andre Buckner) developed into a starting caliber player is phenomenal. Tucker transferred after a few months, so I don't think it's fair to say anything about Duke's lack of development with him. If anything, we recruited too many developmental guys that year. Worth noting though that he hasn't exactly developed into much more since leaving for a VERY anti-one-and-done, which sort of points to my argument that development is largely on the player not the program. So, so far in terms of those developmental guys, we're 2.5 for 5 or 3 for 5.
The 2018 class had Joey Baker. Baker was clearly overmatched as a freshman. Interestingly, though, he has played most of his career in an environment light on one and dones. We had just one superstar last year and just one or two this year. So I don't think it can be argued that the one-and-done environment has prevented his development. Note that he also reclassified to come a year early, so he missed out on his senior year of high school ball.
So, we're 2.5 for 6 or 3 for 6 (depending upon how you feel about DeLaurier) in terms of developing lower-rated players, and of the 3 misses still has 1-2 years left to finish his story.
Given how much White and Goldwire improved in college, and given that both did so at the height of our one-and-done stretch, suggests that the one-and-done model isn't what is hurting player development. If anything, we've seen more player development of next-tier guys in the past 5 years than we saw in the previous 15. In those days, if you weren't a top-30 recruit, you were likely never going to play. And one of the misses is basically only halfway through his career right now, despite playing most of his career outside of the heavy one-and-done era.
Of course there is a need for additional talent. There is ALWAYS a need for additional talent.