Duke MBB @ Miami (Mon, 2/1 7:00pm ESPN) Pre-game and In-game Thread

[Billy Dat]

7-5 teams like Duke don't have trap games or lookahead games, imo. They just want to keep the good times rolling. Miami is in big trouble in this game, methinks.

This is how I feel. We have a lot of momentum and basically zero margin for error (on the season, not this particular game). We have either turned a major corner over the past few weeks or we haven't. I feel in my gut that we have, and this is a really important game toward proving it.

Let's stay clean in the areas where we have mostly been dirty, meaning we need a good start and not to fall into a big hole, get to the line, keep them off the line, don't turn the ball over, don't settle for too many 3s, run them off the 3 point line, etc.

Will the Mark Williams Experience continue to be bold as love?
Can DJ Steward 40%+ from 3 continue?
Will the Goldwire-Steward-Hurt-Johnson-Moore starting line-up stick or do we potentially start looking at Williams as the starter with Wendell off the bench?
Will we continue to see the crisp ball and player movement that we saw on Saturday? It almost looked like we were running Cal's old dribble-drive motion.

LET'S GO!!!!!!!!

[gofurman]

BTW, unless Miami gets most of their injured players back for this game, I'd expect to see a lot of 2-3 zone from them to keep a short rotation fresher and out of foul trouble.

The other thing is that Duke played fairly poorly against Clemson's 2-3 zone in the second half of that game. It was garbage time, of course, so you never know how seriously to treat those data points. But still, hopefully we perform better against Miami's 2-3.

goood point

[camion]

On paper this looks like a relatively easy win, but Miami's bball court isn't made of paper.

Trips to Florida have historically been difficult and we are coming (IMO) our best game of the season. I don't expect seccond 'best' game in a row.

I'm hoping for an easy game, but I worry.

[Troublemaker]

Will the Goldwire-Steward-Hurt-Johnson-Moore starting line-up stick or do we potentially start looking at Williams as the starter with Wendell off the bench?

Well, considering how much Coach K has praised JGold and Wendell's leadership recently, I think they are rock-solid starters right now.

Also, I think your proposed starting lineup is inferior to the current one. Will explain in a later post.

[mike88]

This is how I feel. We have a lot of momentum and basically zero margin for error (on the season, not this particular game). We have either turned a major corner over the past few weeks or we haven't. I feel in my gut that we have, and this is a really important game toward proving it.

Let's stay clean in the areas where we have mostly been dirty, meaning we need a good start and not to fall into a big hole, get to the line, keep them off the line, don't turn the ball over, don't settle for too many 3s, run them off the 3 point line, etc.

Will the Mark Williams Experience continue to be bold as love?
Can DJ Steward 40%+ from 3 continue?
Will the Goldwire-Steward-Hurt-Johnson-Moore starting line-up stick or do we potentially start looking at Williams as the starter with Wendell off the bench?
Will we continue to see the crisp ball and player movement that we saw on Saturday? It almost looked like we were running Cal's old dribble-drive motion.

LET'S GO!!!!!!!!

I am pretty sure if we run the table in the regular season, that will be sufficient to get a bid - but that seems pretty unrealistic given our youth and talent level

Will 7-3 be sufficient? Or will it take 8-2? I am guessing we probably need at least one win over Carolina and a good win vs Virginia (and no bad losses)

[CDu]

Will the Mark Williams Experience continue to be bold as love?

I certainly hope so. He adds a different element than anyone else on the roster with his length. It gives us versatility off the bench, being able to go big (with Williams) or small (with Roach) when we sub out a big. And if he's solid, it gives us some cover for when Hurt or Johnson are in foul trouble.

Can DJ Steward 40%+ from 3 continue?

I'd love to see the 40%+ continue, but I'd be happy with 35%+ as well. That said, he had a better two-game shooting stretch against Illinois/Notre Dame (6-9 combined vs 5-10 the last two), and followed it up with 2-13 over the next two games. So I'm in cautious mode regarding his shooting percentage. I do think he's better than the 31% he was at prior to the last two games, but I'm not sure 40% is quite where he is.

Will the Goldwire-Steward-Hurt-Johnson-Moore starting line-up stick or do we potentially start looking at Williams as the starter with Wendell off the bench?

Williams has been much more effective the past couple of games than he was before, but he has been subbing in for either Johnson or Hurt, not Moore. I can't imagine that will change. I don't think having Williams on the floor with Johnson AND Hurt is a good idea, either for offense or for defense. It murders our floor spacing on offense, and defensively it makes us much less switchable on defense. So I'd be pretty surprised if Williams took a starting spot over Moore. And since Johnson and Hurt are just plain better, I doubt Williams starts over either of them.

Will we continue to see the crisp ball and player movement that we saw on Saturday?

This is key. Our guards and Moore have been too dribble happy in the half-court this season. Against Clemson, that changed. And we got our best game of the season. Crisp ball movement will really help this team create the openings they need.

[Billy Dat]

Well, considering how much Coach K has praised JGold and Wendell's leadership recently, I think they are rock-solid starters right now.
Also, I think your proposed starting lineup is inferior to the current one. Will explain in a later post.

Williams has been much more effective the past couple of games than he was before, but he has been subbing in for either Johnson or Hurt, not Moore. I can't imagine that will change. I don't think having Williams on the floor with Johnson AND Hurt is a good idea, either for offense or for defense. It murders our floor spacing on offense, and defensively it makes us much less switchable on defense. So I'd be pretty surprised if Williams took a starting spot over Moore. And since Johnson and Hurt are just plain better, I doubt Williams starts over either of them.

Good call by both of you...I think that I am looking forward to the looming massive front line of UNC and getting ahead of myself.

[Troublemaker]

Good call by both of you...I think that I am looking forward to the looming massive front line of UNC and getting ahead of myself.

Besides CDu's great points, I would add that we want Jalen playing one of the big positions instead of playing as a SF because we want to give him as many opportunities as possible to "grab and go." It's very, very important for Duke to become a great transition offense, and the easiest way to do that is for Jalen to grab the board and take off down the court before the defense is set where he can find DJ or Matt for three or take it to the rim himself (or perhaps find an open cutter to the rim). If, instead, we have to wait for Mark to get the rebound, scan the court for JGold or Jalen and make the outlet pass, it's really going to cut down on our transition opportunities. To be clear, we *can* run off a regular outlet pass from a big and have done so at points, but we're still most dangerous when the ball is immediately in the hands of a playmaker. And that doesn't mean Jalen has to go coast-to-coast. If he sees an advantage throw-ahead pass after grabbing the board, he'll make that pass. But we want the ball in his hands as quickly as possible.

And the reason it's so important for Duke to become a great transition team is because I suspect that against the very best teams and coaches, we're not going to look very good in the halfcourt. They're going to really pack it in against JGold, Jalen, and Wendell* (perhaps even play a roving free safety off of one them, likely JGold) and make it so hard to drive or make interior passes.

* I do maintain hope on Wendell being like a 35% shooter from three the rest of the season, though. He seems to have confidence in his shot now, and the stroke and the ball path look good. Would be huge for Duke.

[kako]

Glad to read the board is taking this game against a weak UM team seriously (even though Lykes has not played so well against Duke, I am glad he's out). I hope the staff is impressing on the players that they must take this game seriously, and that they don't believe the recent local media hype. Honestly, they really haven't proven anything yet to the NCAA world. They need to play with a chip on their shoulder.

I really like the starting lineup now, and I hope K keeps it going until it needs to be tweaked (or not). JGold's low turnover play as PG needs to continue. The time is ripe for the senior to step up and become the captain. Whether Williams will continue is play or not, the other bigs need to stay ready - I've really liked his play, but I'm not sold yet on consistency. I am hoping Moore continues to play better than earlier, but I'm fine with him shooting less and focusing more on defense and rebounding to start the break. In the halfcourt, he seems to often end up with the ball when the shot clock is running down. I think that should be Johnson or a guard (to drive and dish to an open Hurt, or go to the hole), if possible.

9F

[chrishoke]

Gotta stay hungry. This is a trap game particularly for a young team that just played their best game of the year and has the big game coming up against the heels. Color me worried.

[Music man55]

I am not taking Miami lightly and I am sure Duke is not either, even if they are down to 4 players. If Chris Lykes plays tonight, they will be in the game. I hope he doesn’t. We should win tonight but we will have to play well. Like a poster upthread said, we’re not good enough yet.

[Kedsy]

Besides CDu's great points, I would add that we want Jalen playing one of the big positions instead of playing as a SF because we want to give him as many opportunities as possible to "grab and go." It's very, very important for Duke to become a great transition offense, and the easiest way to do that is for Jalen to grab the board and take off down the court before the defense is set where he can find DJ or Matt for three or take it to the rim himself (or perhaps find an open cutter to the rim). If, instead, we have to wait for Mark to get the rebound, scan the court for JGold or Jalen and make the outlet pass, it's really going to cut down on our transition opportunities. To be clear, we *can* run off a regular outlet pass from a big and have done so at points, but we're still most dangerous when the ball is immediately in the hands of a playmaker. And that doesn't mean Jalen has to go coast-to-coast. If he sees an advantage throw-ahead pass after grabbing the board, he'll make that pass. But we want the ball in his hands as quickly as possible.

And the reason it's so important for Duke to become a great transition team is because I suspect that against the very best teams and coaches, we're not going to look very good in the halfcourt. They're going to really pack it in against JGold, Jalen, and Wendell* (perhaps even play a roving free safety off of one them, likely JGold) and make it so hard to drive or make interior passes.

* I do maintain hope on Wendell being like a 35% shooter from three the rest of the season, though. He seems to have confidence in his shot now, and the stroke and the ball path look good. Would be huge for Duke.

Your observations got me curious, so I got these numbers from hoop-math.com:

So far this season, 29.8% of Duke's initial shot attempts (not counting after offensive rebounds) have come in transition (defined as within 10 seconds of getting possession of the ball). That is a fairly healthy percentage, compared to the past 10 seasons:

2021: 29.8%
2020: 30.5%
2019: 32.9%
2018: 26.7%
2017: 20.3%
2016: 21.4%
2015: 25.8%
2014: 20.5%
2013: 19.2%
2012: 20.4%

I doubt it's a coincidence that the past three years we've had a much higher percentage of shots from transition, as those three years correspond to our team struggling with three-point shooting.

Looking at this season, 62.1% of our transition attempts come after a defensive rebound; 5.1% come after an opposing score; and 6.2% come after a steal. What's interesting is the quality/type of shot we get after each of the above:

AFTER A DEFENSIVE REBOUND, our eFG% is just 43.1%. This is very poor, in general and compared to previous seasons (43.1% is more than 7 percentage points below the 2nd-worst such performance in the past 10 seasons; from 2012 to 2020, our eFG on transition after a rebound ranged from 50.4% to 64.4%, with only two other seasons dipping below 53% (2016: 50.5%; 2020: 50.4%; 2021: 43.1%). An eFG of 43% is also way less efficient than we have been in halfcourt offense.

Breaking our transition performance after a rebound down further, just 38.9% of those opportunities came at the rim (and we shot 54.8% on those shots); 19.4% came on two-point jumpers (we shot 33.3% on those); and 41.7% of those opportunities came on three-pointers (we shot 24.4% on those). What stands out most to me is we're shooting worse than 55% on such transition opportunities at the rim.

AFTER AN OPPOSING SCORE, our eFG% is 56.7%. Of those, 33.3% of the transition opportunities came at the rim (we shot 90.0% on those); 16.7% came on two-point jumpers (we shot 40.0% on those); and 50.0% of the opportunities came on threes (we shot 26.7% on those).

AFTER A STEAL, our eFG% is 80.6%. Of those, 77.8% of the transition opportunities came at the rim (we shot 78.6% on those); only 5.6% came on two-point jumpers (we shot 50.0% on those); and 16.7% of the opportunities came on threes (we shot 66.7% on those).

It's pretty obvious that not all transition opportunities are created equal and the best ones are after steals (that was obvious even before all these numbers). Even our two-point jumpers and three-point shots appear to be better shots (or at least they've gone in more).

So, back to your observation, so far this season we've taken a lot of transition opportunities, but we haven't been that good at converting them (at least after a rebound, which make up the vast majority of our transition opportunities). Whether that's because Jalen Johnson hasn't led the break enough (he missed four games) or some other reason is unclear. Perhaps this phenomenon contributes to the oddity that our offensive efficiency appears to be much better when we play slower.

But to become a "great transition offense," we're going to have to do more than just push the ball more, we're going to have to take better shots in transition after a rebound and we're going to have to execute better on the shots. Because frankly, if we're going to continue with an eFG% of 43% on transition after a defensive rebound, I'd rather we walked it up the floor.

[budwom]

Can Joey Donuts further nudge himself into the sevenish (7.5) man rotation by hitting a few shots?

[Utley]

Any word on Lykes?

[gofurman]

I am pretty sure if we run the table in the regular season, that will be sufficient to get a bid - but that seems pretty unrealistic given our youth and talent level

Will 7-3 be sufficient? Or will it take 8-2? I am guessing we probably need at least one win over Carolina and a good win vs Virginia (and no bad losses)

Unrealistic is understatement

Given these odds to win each game we have a .004 chance to win out. It ain’t happening. I’d be elated at 7-3.
At Miami .75
UNC .5
Nd .75
@ state .55
@ wake .7
UVA. .5
Srycuse. .65
Ville. .6
@ gt. .47
@. Unc. .45

Even increase. EVERY game by .10 (example @ state now becomes .65) - I think that’s fair to generous - we have a .022 chance to run the table. That’s saying we are a 60% chance to beat uva and 57% at GT. that’s pretty generous and gives us .02 to get through them

We look much better but have only won two in a row. Let’s see

[Kedsy]

Looking at this season, 62.1% of our transition attempts come after a defensive rebound; 5.1% come after an opposing score; and 6.2% come after a steal.

Sorry, I muddled these stats. So far this season, 62.1% of our transition attempts have come after a defensive rebound, 17.1% have come after an opponent's score, and 20.8% have come after a steal.

(the 5.1% and 6.2% numbers were out of overall attempts as opposed to transition attempts)

I believe all the other numbers in my earlier post are accurate.

[-jk]

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[Troublemaker]

https://twitter.com/CanesHoops/statu...78338776948737

In the above link, Miami hoops social media posted "Big Monday coming" with a couple of pictures of players that look nothing like Lykes or Wong (from what I can tell).

The guy on the left looks a lot like Harlond Beverly, and I can't identify the guy on the right.

I don't care to investigate further since we're going to figure this out in a few minutes anyway, haha, (and that this analysis is probably flawed). But it looks possible that neither Lykes nor Wong will play. Which should mean a beatdown.

[CDu]

https://twitter.com/CanesHoops/statu...78338776948737

In the above link, Miami hoops social media posted "Big Monday coming" with a couple of pictures of players that look nothing like Lykes or Wong (from what I can tell).

The guy on the left looks a lot like Harlond Beverly, and I can't identify the guy on the right.

I don't care to investigate further since we're going to figure this out in a few minutes anyway, haha, (and that this analysis is probably flawed). But it looks possible that neither Lykes nor Wong will play. Which should mean a beatdown.

The guy on the right is Wong.

[Troublemaker]

The guy on the right is Wong.

I believe you because he's starting. (I guess the angle of the picture threw me off).