MBB: Clemson @ Duke (Sat 1/30 @ 12:00 PM on ESPN2) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[CDu]

Man, this is more fun to do after a win than a loss! Last night's win was critical for this team's at-large tourney chances. Had they lost, we would have had a really uphill battle to get to the 11 or 12 ACC wins that we'd need assuming 18 to 20 games played. But we did get the win, and hopefully can build off that against Clemson.

Perhaps no team in the country has been more impacted by COVID than Clemson. They were off to a terrific start to the season, with double-digit wins over Purdue, Maryland, Miss St, and FSU, and a win over Alabama as well. A 9-1 start had them thinking upper-tier ACC season, and perhaps a strong tourney bid. And then... COVID threw a wrench into their schedule. 11 days off, and Clemson hasn't quite figured it out since. They've been blown out by UVa, Ga Tech, and FSU, with differentials of 35, 18, and 19. Hopefully, they continue their funk this weekend.

In terms of style of play, Clemson is a grinder. They play a slow pace, defend with physicality, and are not terribly polished offensively. They force a lot of turnovers (13th in the nation), are decent at blocking shots, and generally encourage teams to shoot 3s. The result is a top-25 defense (though that number is dropping rapidly). Their offense is... not great. They are similarly bad at drawing fouls as we are, they turn it over a bit too much like us, and they shoot fairly poorly. Basically, they are similar to us in offense except for the fact that they don't rebound well and they shoot 3s a bit more. And of note they play a much deeper rotation than we typically do, going 9-10 deep regularly. The other big difference is that they are a team in descent whereas we seem to be improving. Hopefully that trend continues.

Centers: The Tigers kind of mix and match up front, with 3 guys getting minutes here. Jonathan Baehre (6'10", 215lb fifth-year senior transfer from Germany via UNC-Ashville) starts, but plays only about half the game. Knee injuries robbed him of last season, but Baehre is long and lean, and as such does well challenging shots. He's not a great rebounder, though. Offensively, he's a floor-spacing big who doesn't do much damage near the basket. He has legitimate 3pt range as well, and takes a lot of midrange shots. As a result, he doesn't draw many fouls. The other main option at C is PJ Hall (6'10", 235lb freshman). Hall is one of Clemson's best recruits in recent memory. A borderline top-50 recruit, he has a fairly solid, if old-school, big man skill set on offense. Unfortunately for him, he's not terribly good defensively, which (along with the frontcourt having two seniors) is why he has played relatively sparingly. I think he'll eventually be a good player for them, but right now he's a limited-minutes guy. The Tigers will also play their star PF at C a fair amount as well.

Forwards: Aamir Simms (6'8", 250lb senior) is a stud. He hasn't had quite the start to his senior year that he'd hoped, but he's absolutely an All-ACC caliber player. He's extremely strong and athletic, and plays with a high level of energy. But he's not muscle. He's a terrific passer and a very good shooter for his size (don't let the 28% this season fool you; he has legitimate 3pt range). Foul trouble and a rough start to his 3pt shooting has been the main driver in his downtick in performance. But he's going to be a handful for Hurt and Johnson (and whomever else gets the task of guarding him). Behind Simms is Hunter Tyson (6'8", 215lb junior). Tyson is a solid defensive rebounder and a good 3pt shooter, and that's pretty much what he does. Tyson is a scrappy guy off the bench who just does a solid job as a role player for them. Finally, Olivier-Maxence Prosper (6'8", 215lb freshman from Canada) is a combo-forward for the Tigers. Prosper is very projectable, with prototypical size, length, and athleticism. Unfortunately, the skill set hasn't quite caught up to the athlete. A very promising prospect for the Tigers for the future, but right now he's just very raw.

Wings: Clyde Trapp (6'4", 205lb senior) is the primary starter on the perimeter. Trapp has improved as a shooter The Tigers have a quartet of regulars on the wing. Alex Hemenway (6'3", 185lb soph) is your classic Indiana kid. He's a pure shooter, through and through. Hemenway doesn't offer much off the dribble or much defensively. He's there to shoot 3s,a nd that's what he does (career 43% 3pt shooter who shoots like 80% of his shots from 3). John Newman (6'5", 205lb junior) is often a starter, but has ceded that role to Hemenway more recently. Newman is a high-energy, wiry guy who plays tough defense. Newman's offensive game is more raw, especially as a shooter. Almost all of his baskets come near the basket. He's a decent free throw shooter (73% career, 100% on 9 attempts this year) but a mediocre/poor 3pt shooter. But he's a program guy and gives them lots of energy and toughness. Lastly, Chase Hunter (6'3", 205lb soph)

Guards: Al-Amir Dawes (6'2", 180lb sophomore) is the starter. Dawes is more of a combo guard than a true PG, and honestly the offense mainly runs through Simms in the half court. Dawes' skill set is more similar to Jeremy Roach, in that he's a better driver than shooter. Like Roach, Dawes fancies himself more of a 3pt shooter than he really is, though, and takes too many 3s. Off the dribble, he's quite capable though. Defensively, he plays his part well though not superlatively. Good athlete, still trying to figure out his optimal role. Nick Honor (5'10", 205lb sophomore transfer from Fordham) is the other option. Honor is a fire hydrant type of PG. He's a real pest defensively, forcing a lot of turnovers. Offensively, he's a terrific 3pt shooter who can also bowling ball his way to the rim and scores well in transition. Height is the major limiter for Honor, but in terms of bball IQ and skills he is pretty solid off the bench for the Tigers.

Honestly, this game on paper should be like the way the Georgia Tech game played out: more of a defensive grind than high-quality offense. Which is weird, because Tech was a good offense/bad defense team, whereas Clemson is a bad offense/good defense team. Still, I'd expect this to be a grind. The good news is that Clemson doesn't have a ton of great offensive talent, and they really have to play through Simms. That gives me some hope that we can have a good result against them, especially given their recent struggles. Simms is a handful though, and making sure not to lose track of cutters will be key. Also key will be not making mistakes with the ball and allowing turnovers. This is a very winnable game, and we really need to keep adding to the win column now that the team has figured out how to do it.

[kako]

As always, appreciate the time you take for these write ups.

I wasn't really aware of the transfer Baehre, so I was worried when you wrote he was 6-10 with an outside shot. But it looks like he's only 6-20 this year from 3... Simms had a great game against Duke last year when they knocked us off. Let's hope that does not happen this year. Last year when they played Duke, Clemson was riding high after beating UNC in Chapel Hill for the first time ever.

I watched the end where Clemson came back to beat State this year in OT, and they did look great. But as you say, they've had issues with COVID since then. Duke's win against Tech is a plus here, too. The Tigers might have been looking to right their ship against a Duke team on a losing streak, if Duke hadn't won yesterday. Hopefully the Devils are rising while the Tigers are falling. Duke needs to beat the teams behind them and pull off an upset or two against the top tier ACC teams in order to sneak into the tourney.

9F

[DavidBenAkiva]

Great write-up as usual, CDu. You beat me to the punch! That worked out for the game against Georgia Tech, so I'm happy to defer for a while.

This is such a crazy matchup. Clemson looked like a world-beater earlier this year and have been absolute trash since taking a COVID pause. I'm so curious to see what they look like tonight against Louisville.

While they have depth, there's not a ton of size or depth. Outside of Sims, the only other player taller than 6'5" getting serious minutes is the starting center Baehre. He's only getting about 20 minutes per game, which means they have Simms at the 5 position for about 10-15 minutes a game. They really struggle getting to the free throw line and there's not much rim protection. They are not a good shooting team and a worse 3-point shooting defense. I think we will see a lot more of Jalen Johnson, if he can stay out of early foul trouble, putting pressure on the defense with his dribble penetration. Hurt and Johnson should be able to play a little two-man action out of the high post against this group. If Hurt gets a smaller defender on him, he can post up or pick and pop. Johnson can drive to score or find an open shooter as the defense collapses. I want to see how they are playing defense to get a better sense of what Duke might face on Saturday. This 3-game skid from Clemson is such a polar opposite of how they performed earlier in the year, it's hard to tell exactly how this game might look.

[CDu]

As always, appreciate the time you take for these write ups.

I wasn't really aware of the transfer Baehre, so I was worried when you wrote he was 6-10 with an outside shot. But it looks like he's only 6-20 this year from 3... Simms had a great game against Duke last year when they knocked us off. Let's hope that does not happen this year. Last year when they played Duke, Clemson was riding high after beating UNC in Chapel Hill for the first time ever.

I watched the end where Clemson came back to beat State this year in OT, and they did look great. But as you say, they've had issues with COVID since then. Duke's win against Tech is a plus here, too. The Tigers might have been looking to right their ship against a Duke team on a losing streak, if Duke hadn't won yesterday. Hopefully the Devils are rising while the Tigers are falling. Duke needs to beat the teams behind them and pull off an upset or two against the top tier ACC teams in order to sneak into the tourney.

9F

Baehre is 35% for his career from 3: 37.1% at UNC-A and 27.3% in limited attempts at Clemson. Basically he's one miss off his career norms this season. He's a very good outside shooter for a big. We shouldn't ignore him out there when he's in the game, because he's very capable from distance. The good thing is that he's not a threat inside. By no means is he a dynamic weapon for them, just that we don't want to lose him on the 3pt line and make him relevant.

As for Simms, he's certainly the key. He does so many things well. He was definitely the catalyst in their win over us. He is comfortable on the block, on the elbow, or even on the 3pt line. It will be a difficult assignment, both for the guy guarding him but also the guys guarding potential cutters looking for passes from him.

[jv001]

Baehre is 35% for his career from 3: 37.1% at UNC-A and 27.3% in limited attempts at Clemson. Basically he's one miss off his career norms this season. He's a very good outside shooter for a big. We shouldn't ignore him out there when he's in the game, because he's very capable from distance. The good thing is that he's not a threat inside. By no means is he a dynamic weapon for them, just that we don't want to lose him on the 3pt line and make him relevant.

As for Simms, he's certainly the key. He does so many things well. He was definitely the catalyst in their win over us. He is comfortable on the block, on the elbow, or even on the 3pt line. It will be a difficult assignment, both for the guy guarding him but also the guys guarding potential cutters looking for passes from him.

Do you think Moore get's Simms, or maybe JJ. I hope it's Wendell and he's able to handle him. That way Johnson shouldn't get into foul trouble. Then again there's a chance we see some more zone. I expect the starters to be: Hurt, Moore, Johnson, DJ and Goldwire. That would leave Roach, Baker, Williams and Brakefield coming off the bench first, with Coleman coming in for 5 to 6 minutes.

GoDuke!

[CDu]

Do you think Moore get's Simms, or maybe JJ. I hope it's Wendell and he's able to handle him. That way Johnson shouldn't get into foul trouble. Then again there's a chance we see some more zone. I expect the starters to be: Hurt, Moore, Johnson, DJ and Goldwire. That would leave Roach, Baker, Williams and Brakefield coming off the bench first, with Coleman coming in for 5 to 6 minutes.

GoDuke!

I can't say with any confidence what Coach K will do. My guess is that Moore and Johnson will be the ones tasked with Simms primarily. Despite his size and strength, Simms doesn't go to the line a ton. So maybe Johnson gets the nod first. But I could certainly see a scenario in which we put Moore on Simms, let Johnson guard Baehre/Hall, and allow Hurt to guard Hemenway (a spot-up marksman) or Newman (a low-usage guy), whichever one starts.

[Kedsy]

I expect the starters to be: Hurt, Moore, Johnson, DJ and Goldwire. That would leave Roach, Baker, Williams and Brakefield coming off the bench first, with Coleman coming in for 5 to 6 minutes.

I think we've reached the point in Duke's season where our top 5 guys play 30 or more minutes absent foul trouble (or injury) and everyone after the 7th man plays 5 or fewer minutes. That's certainly what happened in the last two games. So pick two out of Roach, Baker, Williams, Brakefield, Coleman, and Tapé, and the other four are likely just getting scraps.

[CDu]

I think we've reached the point in Duke's season where our top 5 guys play 30 or more minutes absent foul trouble (or injury) and everyone after the 7th man plays 5 or fewer minutes. That's certainly what happened in the last two games. So pick two out of Roach, Baker, Williams, Brakefield, Coleman, and Tapé, and the other four are likely just getting scraps.

And realistically, Roach is going to be one of the 7. Simply by virtue of us only having 3 guards. So it's really "pick one of Baker/Williams/Brakefield/Coleman/Tape as the seventh man, and the rest get scraps."

[jv001]

And realistically, Roach is going to be one of the 7. Simply by virtue of us only having 3 guards. So it's really "pick one of Baker/Williams/Brakefield/Coleman/Tape as the seventh man, and the rest get scraps."

I see what you're saying. In the L'ville game; Roach got 25:56 minutes, Baker got 16:51 minutes, Brakefield got 5:05, Coleman got 4:46 minutes, Tapé got 1:25 minutes and Williams didn't play. It's going to depend on who the opponent is and foul trouble. Basically Williams and Baker traded spots for the GT game.

GoDuke!

[OZZIE4DUKE]

I think we've reached the point in Duke's season where our top 5 guys play 30 or more minutes absent foul trouble (or injury) and everyone after the 7th man plays 5 or fewer minutes. That's certainly what happened in the last two games. So pick two out of Roach, Baker, Williams, Brakefield, Coleman, and Tapé, and the other four are likely just getting scraps.

And realistically, Roach is going to be one of the 7. Simply by virtue of us only having 3 guards. So it's really "pick one of Baker/Williams/Brakefield/Coleman/Tape as the seventh man, and the rest get scraps."

I see what you're saying. In the L'ville game; Roach got 25:56 minutes, Baker got 16:51 minutes, Brakefield got 5:05, Coleman got 4:46 minutes, Tapé got 1:25 minutes and Williams didn't play. It's going to depend on who the opponent is and foul trouble. Basically Williams and Baker traded spots for the GT game.

GoDuke!

And last night Roach started but played so poorly he got far fewer minutes, which was earned/deserved. We need him to shoot better and make better PG decisions.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Coleman has been playing a little in recent games and of course Williams was outstanding against Georgia Tech. I imagine Coach K is going to see if either are up to the task against Simms, if just for a few minutes.

[gofurman]

I have been to two Clemson games. One vs sc state and another vs FSU. These dudes can play. You see the wins over FSU Bama Purdue and now Louisville. They beat NC State too
- the tough part. Our best wins have been vs two teams who have good O but poor D - Norte Dame and GTech. We have not yet beaten a team with a top D and Clemson really plays some of the best D I have seen when they are in


Now, that said, after COVID everyone was lighting them up but the win tonight against Louisville worries me both as a win and that they held Louisville to 50. The same Louisville that hung 70 on us. You see where I’m going - Clemson can shut you down.

F Simms is a stud and Nick Honor at SG is a great addition who was overlooked Bc of height maybe? .I guess this is what I am driving at - their D ceiling is WAAAAAY higher than ours as they beat Louisville despite Clemson shooting 36% from FG and 20% from three (hitting only 7 despite launching a ton). Had we shot like that we would have been routed by Louisville - chk the box score tonight of tigers vs Louisville .

[Sophia Devil]

Which Clemson team shows up? They seem to be getting back into a groove after their haitus. It would be nice for them to take a step back for our sake. Doubt they'll want to do that for us. I think this game will go down to the wire, with free throw shooting being the big delineator. Hoping we get a chance to end the game on the line.

[DukieInBrasil]

I watched the Clemson-'Ville game last night and for the most part it was fugly. Clemson was entirely dedicated to the 3, and they didn't shoot it well, but they made life miserable for the 'Ville. I didn't gain any insight that hasn't been mentioned already, but i did get a sense for how tough Clemson is. They're very mature and each knows his role. Defending Simms will be a huge challenge in that he'd theoretically be a good matchup for JJ, but Simms is so much stronger. Perhaps if JJ can keep his own fouling under control, he might be able to draw some on Simms on the O side of the ball, which will make handling the Tigers more feasible.
Coming out strong and matching Clemson's aggressive energy will be important, although the Tigers' lack of explosive offense could help Duke overcome a slow start.

[jv001]

Coleman has been playing a little in recent games and of course Williams was outstanding against Georgia Tech. I imagine Coach K is going to see if either are up to the task against Simms, if just for a few minutes.

Coach K said in his post game presser that Williams had some bad practices but in the last 2 he had been much better. He praised Nate for helping Mark with that. I believe Coach K is giving Coleman a few minutes because he adds value to our defense and he's a physical player. His plus/minus was +3 against Louisville and even against GT. To me that looks like he's not hurting the team in limited play. Brakefield on the other hand got 5 minutes against Louisville and was -5, He got 2 minutes against GT and was even in plus/minus. I think Brakefield must hit some 3s to contribute because he's a liability on defense. Both look to be on a short leash but if Brakefield can get hot on his outside shooting, he might get more minutes despite being a bad defender.

[roywhite]

Last year's game vs Clemson was one of the best performances by the Tigers all season.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...meId=401168358

Simms had 25 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists.
Clemson shot 56.6% from the field and out-rebounded Duke 35-27.

Duke was out-muscled and out-hustled. It's their physical strength and maturity that has me worried again this year.

[CDu]

Last year's game vs Clemson was one of the best performances by the Tigers all season.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...meId=401168358

Simms had 25 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists.
Clemson shot 56.6% from the field and out-rebounded Duke 35-27.

Duke was out-muscled and out-hustled. It's their physical strength and maturity that has me worried again this year.

Yep. They can grind and hustle for sure. One positive is that one of their protagonists last year. Tevin Mack (22 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks) is gone. They don't really have a guy to fill that role yet (Prosper should get there eventually, but not yet). Another positive is that we didn't have Wendell Moore in that game, and he's the type of player who should match up well with their physicality. It's not as athletic a team with Tyson and Hemenway and Baehre/Hall playing a bigger role. And lastly, they won't be playing in front of their home crowd, which no doubt helped last year.

But regardless, they can absolutely grind and physical their way to a win. This is still a team that beat Alabama, FSU, and Purdue, and gave Va Tech a similar battle as we did. They have a terrific star, and they have some 3pt shooters this year to cause trouble if we get overly focused on Simms.

It's a game we need to win, but it's a game we can easily lose.

[DavidBenAkiva]

The outcome of the Clemson-Louisville game was mostly positive for Duke. It helped in the standings and it also means Clemson won't be riding a 4-game losing streak heading into the matchup. I think the other thing it shows is that Duke can play with Clemson. Most of the teams are on the same level in the ACC this year. Duke really needs to run off a string of wins. This game is going to be important for building momentum. Hopefully Duke builds off the Georgia Tech performance where they looked like the better team most of the night. Can they do that against a team that knows how to make life difficult for the opposing offense?

[scottdude8]

The outcome of the Clemson-Louisville game was mostly positive for Duke. It helped in the standings and it also means Clemson won't be riding a 4-game losing streak heading into the matchup. I think the other thing it shows is that Duke can play with Clemson. Most of the teams are on the same level in the ACC this year. Duke really needs to run off a string of wins. This game is going to be important for building momentum. Hopefully Duke builds off the Georgia Tech performance where they looked like the better team most of the night. Can they do that against a team that knows how to make life difficult for the opposing offense?

Agreed... you never want to be playing a desperate team. The Clemson victory also helps in that it ups Clemson's NET ranking (they're at No. 50 right now) and gives us a chance at a solid, if not spectacular, victory on Saturday (a win at home over No. 50 is a solid Q2 victory). Clemson also is in the range where a late run by the Tigers has the potential to improve the impact of a hypothetical Duke victory on Saturday.

Of our 11 remaining games, this is certainly amongst the top group in terms of potential quality wins. A win would go a long way towards steadying the ship, both qualitatively and quantitatively.

[CDu]

Agreed... you never want to be playing a desperate team. The Clemson victory also helps in that it ups Clemson's NET ranking (they're at No. 50 right now) and gives us a chance at a solid, if not spectacular, victory on Saturday (a win at home over No. 50 is a solid Q2 victory). Clemson also is in the range where a late run by the Tigers has the potential to improve the impact of a hypothetical Duke victory on Saturday.

Of our 11 remaining games, this is certainly amongst the top group in terms of potential quality wins. A win would go a long way towards steadying the ship, both qualitatively and quantitatively.

It will be interesting to see as the season progresses, but there are potentially a lot of opportunities for a win over Clemson to either be a good win or a "meh" win relative to our schedule.

By NET, Clemson is still 6th, just ahead of Syracuse and a bit farther ahead of Ga Tech. But by KenPom, Clemson (#49) drops behind Syracuse (#45), with Ga Tech not far behind (#59), but notably behind Duke, UNC, and Louisville. Barttorvik thinks of Clemson as notably below Georgia Tech and Syracuse, and comparable with Louisville/Duke/NC St.

Obviously, these metrics differ greatly in some cases (especially NET relative to KenPom, but even NET relative to Torvik). So it will really depend upon which proves more reflective of where teams are heading. Clemson could certainly end up with a higher NET than even UNC (#47 NET), which would make this game more impactful than anything other than UVa (Q1-A), @UNC (Q1), @Ga Tech (Q1), and possibly @NC St (Q2 for now, but close to a Q1), and of course @FSU (Q1-A) if it happens. But if Clemson drifts and the teams that are rated higher by KP and BT settle in "appropriately" in NET, then it falls well into the lower half of our remaining games (behind Syracuse, UNC, and Louisville in addition to the aforementioned games above, ahead of just @Wake, ND, and Pitt).

Basically, we have a BUNCH of Q2 and even some Q1 games ahead, in addition to some Q1-A (maybe 2 of those). Lots of opportunities to improve our resume. In order to make the tournament, we'll probably need to be 3 or 4 games over .500 in conference. Which means we're going to have to win several Q2 games to get in anyway.

The next stretch of games (Clemson, @Miami, UNC, ND, @NC St, @Wake) offer us a nice opportunity. We probably need to be setting at 9-4 in conference out of that stretch to feel good about our tourney chances. If we do that, then win against Cuse and Louisville at home and we're probably in. If we are 8-5 or worse, it's a real uphill battle as we'd need to take at least one of UVa, @Ga Tech, and @UNC to feel better about our chances.