I should let the resident experts speak, but I think the answer is, at this point, unknowable. How many people will end up rejecting the vaccine, I would think that's key. Up here, I think we have achieved very high "buy in." In other states, I'm hearing much different info, e.g. Michigan:
https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/...ty/4720328001/
25% in Michigan say they don't want the vax...(Idiot Neighbors 2 don't want the vaccine because, and this seems contradictory, "no one knows what's in it, and
they can track you with it."
I don't think we get herd immunity any time soon by waiting for tons of people to get infected, but maybe i'm wrong..