5-5 (3-3) with 12 or 14 games left -- what record is needed for NCAAs

[Wander]

I said in another thread, but it's more appropriate here. I suspect that 11-7 in conference with 1-2 tourney wins would be enough. 10-7 (if another game gets postponed/cancelled) would do it too I think. If we somehow play all 20, then 12-8 would probably be enough.

I agree. The lack of good non-conference wins means that a .500 record probably won't do it. Looking back, there have been plenty of 9-7 major conference teams left out over the years. So 11-7 is the record that would make me feel safe. Note that our ACC schedule is fairly weak (only getting UVA/FSU once instead of a possible four times), which I guess you could spin as a good thing or a bad thing, but it does mean something like 9-9 is not going to cut it.

FWIW, kenpom still has us as (barely) the third best team in the ACC. So we're still in it.

[Kedsy]

Leaky Black is a junior and Andrew Platek comes off the bench as a senior.

I'm not sure what your point is, but neither Leaky Black nor Andrew Platek are particularly good players. And neither has appeared to improve since they were freshmen.

[Bob Green]

I'm not sure what your point is, but neither Leaky Black nor Andrew Platek are particularly good players. And neither has appeared to improve since they were freshmen.

Post I responded to stated Carolina guards were freshmen. My point is they do have upperclassmen guards. Carolina’s strength is inside with Brooks, Bacot and Sharpe.

[MarkD83]

Post I responded to stated Carolina guards were freshmen. My point is they do have upperclassmen guards. Carolina’s strength is inside with Brooks, Bacot and Sharpe.

Just to complete the loop and add some clarification...I originally predicted that Duke would win both games against unc. My basis was 1) hoping and wishing - these 2 wins will make it a successful season and 2) unc does not shoot well from outside and perhaps with Duke's zone and 2 bad outside shooting nights Duke will get the wins. This of course presumes that Duke does not give up a lot of offensive rebounds.

[jv001]

Just to complete the loop and add some clarification...I originally predicted that Duke would win both games against unc. My basis was 1) hoping and wishing - these 2 wins will make it a successful season and 2) unc does not shoot well from outside and perhaps with Duke's zone and 2 bad outside shooting nights Duke will get the wins. This of course presumes that Duke does not give up a lot of offensive rebounds.

If we play zone against them, we just might get killed on the boards.

GoDuke!

[UrinalCake]

I think K may have been onto something when he began advocating last fall for the NCAA to let all 328 teams into the tournament. He’s always several steps ahead of us.

[arnie]

I think K may have been onto something when he began advocating last fall for the NCAA to let all 328 teams into the tournament. He’s always several steps ahead of us.

Haha, but please don’t let him say that again if we’re a questionable selection.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Haha, but please don’t let him say that again if we’re a questionable selection.

It would be on par with us suddenly removing ourselves from the NCAA because of COVID if we are right around .500

[gofurman]

"You are never as good or bad as you think you are."

I expect about 4-5 or so the rest of the way... most home wins - maybe not UNC or UVA? - maybe get one on the road at Wake or State?.. even Wake is improving. probaby end up about 9-9 in ACC and 11-11 overall..

[simplyluvin]

Ideal or optimistic case is 5-4 the rest of the way with two wins in the ACCT. Question is, does a 14-11 team get in the NCAAT? Possibly if two of those wins are against UNC and UVA.

[UrinalCake]

Ideal or optimistic case is 5-4 the rest of the way with two wins in the ACCT. Question is, does a 14-11 team get in the NCAAT? Possibly if two of those wins are against UNC and UVA.

I think we would, in part because the NCAA is going to have a hard time finding 68 teams that meet their COVID testing criteria. But I also think there's a good chance the ACCT doesn't get played. 12-11 probably wouldn't be enough.

[budwom]

The team had eight assists and 13 turnovers last night (it felt like more...it only took Johnson 12 seconds to commit his first)...by comparison, I couldn't help but note that Tyus Jones came off the bench for Memphis last night and had 14 assists and one turnover...

[jv001]

The team had eight assists and 13 turnovers last night (it felt like more...it only took Johnson 12 seconds to commit his first)...by comparison, I couldn't help but note that Tyus Jones came off the bench for Memphis last night and had 14 assists and one turnover...

Nail hammer. I think we were spoiled by having the Jones brothers at point guard. This team doesn't have a point guard.

GoDuke!

[budwom]

Nail hammer. I think we were spoiled by having the Jones brothers at point guard. This team doesn't have a point guard.

GoDuke!

Even when we move the ball, we just don't seem to generate really good shots, and almost no one can penetrate and dish...

[jv001]

Even when we move the ball, we just don't seem to generate really good shots, and almost no one can penetrate and dish...

Agree, Goldwire, JJ and Wendell drive me crazy dribbling the ball up top and looking around and like you say, even when we're passing the ball we don't attack.

GoDuke and GTHC.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Nail hammer. I think we were spoiled by having the Jones brothers at point guard. This team doesn't have a point guard.

GoDuke!

UNC has been coming around because they have found some answers regarding their guard play.

We haven't cracked that code yet.

[Troublemaker]

I expect about 4-5 or so the rest of the way... most home wins - maybe not UNC or UVA? - maybe get one on the road at Wake or State?.. even Wake is improving. probaby end up about 9-9 in ACC and 11-11 overall..

Ideal or optimistic case is 5-4 the rest of the way with two wins in the ACCT. Question is, does a 14-11 team get in the NCAAT? Possibly if two of those wins are against UNC and UVA.

Oooh, we're doing predictions here?

For posterity, I'll cross-post the following here then:

Anyway, I'm still pretty optimistic for the rest of the season, which consists of 9 games if no cancelations. Thankfully, each game is an independent event, and so a bad loss to Miami doesn't mean we will perform poorly in those 9 games.

I'm learning this season that we have to predict Coach K as much as what the players on the court will do. Is he going to start the season playing 5-out motion despite a lack of shooters and reliable drivers? (Bad). Is he going to play m2m while dropping his big men back towards the basket in PnR as opposed to having them hang out at or beyond the 3-pt line? (Good). Is he going to randomly play a 3-2 zone that has too many holes in it, including easy corner threes and drives, and that no other program plays? (Bad). Is he going to use sets to help give structure to the offense and promote ball movement and ball reversal, including some ball screen continuity? (Good). Is he going to spread our defense waaaay too far out and allow plentiful driving lanes to an opposing offense whose one major strength is driving the ball? (Bad).

I'm looking at the 9 games, and I see opponents like UNC and UVA that Coach K usually gameplans well against. What's a likely loss? @NCSU. Coach K is going to pressure and spread us out and play our bigs beyond the 3-pt line against a coach in Keatts that is very good at PnR. Coach K is usually average coaching against Boeheim's zone -- particularly we sometimes have a hard time getting the ball to the FT line area and end up jacking threes without inside-out ball movement -- but I'm hoping since the Cuse zone is pretty ineffective this year and because we have a guy in Jalen who's perfect for being the passing hub at the FT line area, we'll find a way. It's possible Coach K coaches a bad game against Louisville's guards and Chris Mack, but I think that's less likely after we already lost to them once. I don't expect to get swept. Still, the aggregate of the non-NCSU games should produce a loss. That's fair mathematically.

So I'll go ahead and predict 7-2 for the rest of the season and getting into the NCAAT with some room to spare.

[MarkD83]

I think we would, in part because the NCAA is going to have a hard time finding 68 teams that meet their COVID testing criteria. But I also think there's a good chance the ACCT doesn't get played. 12-11 probably wouldn't be enough.

This of course is a what if but fun to think about....what if Duke had played the 3 non-conference "easy" games and were 15-11?

[uh_no]

I think it's more about getting wins against actual tournament teams at this point than quantity. There are a lot of mediocre teams in the ACC this year, and at this point, having wins against them isn't going to do much to boost our resume.

[CDu]

I think it's more about getting wins against actual tournament teams at this point than quantity. There are a lot of mediocre teams in the ACC this year, and at this point, having wins against them isn't going to do much to boost our resume.

Eh, I think it's still about quantity. Plenty of bubble teams get in to the tournament without "resume" wins. Sure, resume wins would be better. But if we prove we're ahead of the other bubble ACC teams, that puts us in good position. And we prove that by quantity of wins. Conversely, going .500 but beating UVa and FSU isn't going to get us in.

I think we really need to be talking about quantity here. We probably need about 6 more wins if we're talking just 9 games left, 7 if we're talking 11 games.