5-5 (3-3) with 12 or 14 games left -- what record is needed for NCAAs

[MarkD83]

In the past 20 wins used to be a target that would guarantee an NCAA birth. When the ACC was stronger 17 or 18 wins would get an ACC team in the NCAA tournament as long as there were some strong non-conference wins.

With a shortened schedule due to Covid and no good non-conference wins...what record does Duke have to have and how do they get there?
The rest of the schedule is listed below including 2 possible make-up games (Pitt and FSU).

My guess is a 14-8 record without the rescheduled games and 15-9 if the rescheduled games are played. The wins I think Duke can get are in bold. I come up 2 games short or 12-10 without the rescheduled games and 13-11 with the rescheduled games.


Georgia Tech
Clemson
@Miami
North Carolina
Notre Dame
@NC State
@Wake Forest
Virginia
Syracuse
Louisville
@Georgia Tech
@North Carolina

Pittsburgh – if rescheduled
@FSU – if rescheduled

[Bob Green]

I don’t see us beating Carolina. The Heels are too big and talented inside and pressure the ball on defense. Turnovers and fouls will do us in.

[UrinalCake]

Back when it was a 16 game conference schedule for all those years, then general rule was that 9-7 would get you in. Eventually there came up team that didn’t get in despite being over 500 but with the tournament at 68 teams that seems like a reasonable enough benchmark, and having two more games cancelled is probably a decent over/under. So we need to go 6-4 the rest the the way. Seems doable though certainly not guaranteed.

Now, if we go 6-4 but all our wins are against the middle and bottom of the conference, then I could see us justifiably being left out.

[jv001]

I'll take a stab.
Wins
GT
Clemson
@ Miami
ND
@NC State
@Wake
Syracuse

Losses
NCheats
VA
Louisville
@GT
@NCheats

If we lose to GT at home, I don't think our young players can come back from that defeat. Their confidence might be shattered.

GoDuke!

[Troublemaker]

It's Quadrant 1 wins and wins against NCAA tournament teams that matter.

There are definitely paths to an above-.500 ACC record where we get left out because we didn't get enough of the above.

So, I wouldn't think in terms of record but in terms of scalps of good teams. The bigger the scalp, the less you have to do elsewhere. Beat UVA, for example, and maybe two other Q1 wins could do it.

[MarkD83]

I don’t see us beating Carolina. The Heels are too big and talented inside and pressure the ball on defense. Turnovers and fouls will do us in.

I just could not bring myself to counting these as losses. However, unc does not shot well from the outside and has freshman guards.

[MarkD83]

It's Quadrant 1 wins and wins against NCAA tournament teams that matter.

There are definitely paths to an above-.500 ACC record where we get left out because we didn't get enough of the above.

So, I wouldn't think in terms of record but in terms of scalps of good teams. The bigger the scalp, the less you have to do elsewhere. Beat UVA, for example, and maybe two other Q1 wins could do it.

So other than UVA, who left on the schedule is a Q1 opponent? GT maybe...FSU if the game is rescheduled...

[uh_no]

So other than UVA, who left on the schedule is a Q1 opponent? GT maybe...FSU if the game is rescheduled...

that is the problem. Instead of most years, when the ACC has a ton locks, this year there are a ton of teams on the bubble.

[Troublemaker]

So other than UVA, who left on the schedule is a Q1 opponent? GT maybe...FSU if the game is rescheduled...

UVA, @GaTech, and @UNC are Q1 wins as of right now.

@NCSU and Cuse at home could be Q1 wins if they play better and creep across their respective cutoffs. (Of note, Cuse seems to be on an upswing lately).

And then we'll have opportunities in the ACC tournament.

Obviously another important task is to take care of business when not facing a Q1 game. For example, these next two home games.

[gofurman]

It's Quadrant 1 wins and wins against NCAA tournament teams that matter.

There are definitely paths to an above-.500 ACC record where we get left out because we didn't get enough of the above.

So, I wouldn't think in terms of record but in terms of scalps of good teams. The bigger the scalp, the less you have to do elsewhere. Beat UVA, for example, and maybe two other Q1 wins could do it.

This. GT would really help.. Louisville would have been Q1.. damit


8 Virginia
21 Florida St.
40 Syracuse
42 Louisville
49 Virginia Tech
51 North Carolina
53 Clemson
56 Georgia Tech
58 Pittsburgh
85 NC State
90 Duke
96 Notre Dame
109 Wake Forest
132 Boston College
149 Miami (FL)

NET rankings are on the far left

Q1 wins includes home games against teams in the top 30 of NET, neutral-site games against the top 50 and road games against the top 75.
Q2 wins includes home games against teams ranked Nos. 31-75 in NET, neutral-site games against teams ranked Nos. 51-100 and road games against teams ranked Nos. 76-135.

Currently, Duke is / 0-4 vs Q1... / 1-0 vs Q2 (Notre Dame?) / 2-1 vs Q3 / 2-0 vs Q4

[UrinalCake]

A top-75 road win still counts as Q1 as far as I know, even though home court advantage has been severely diminished. So that’s good for us. I think there’s a really high likeliness the ACCT doesn’t get played. The NCAA is requiring that teams test negative for seven consecutive days leading up to the tourney, so holding the ACCT would be taking a gamble that it doesn’t cause any virus spread that would risk a team’s opportunity to play in the big tourney.

[scottdude8]

I think that this year is going to be a major outlier when it comes to the committee considering they have even less of a body of evidence to compare the conferences by. If I had to hazard a guess, I think that might mean that they'd be more likely to put in major conference teams as at-larges rather than mid-majors. That's just a guess though.

With that in mind, I think any team above .500 in the ACC will have a reasonable shot at making the tourney depending on what happens in the conference tournament. With 12 games remaining, I see one that would be a major upset for us to win (home against Virginia), three more than we could potentially be underdogs in (home Louisville, both UNC, and mayyybee home Clemson). The rest I'd classify as either tossups (I'd put both GT games, @NC State, and @Wake in that category now) or games we'll be favorites in (the remaining 3). And I think I'm being a bit pessimistic in those classifications.

With that in mind, if we win the 3 games I expect us to be favorited in, 3 out of 4 tossups, and just one of the underdog games, that puts us at >.500 in the ACC with at least one high-quality win. I think that would put us very much in the conversation if we win, say, two games in the ACC tourney. And I think that's a VERY reasonable bar for us to reach.

Again, all of this is speculation became of how unknown the impact of the pandemic scheduling will be on the committee. But I think Duke still controls its own destiny to make the tourney, and normally that's all you can ask for.

[kshepinthehouse]

The problem I see with many rosy tournament projections for us is that we didn’t exactly look great against the bad teams (except ND) and we easily could have lost to Boston College.

[Sluggo]

I think we'll be lucky to finish .500 and I do not see a .500 team getting an at large bid. Only chance we have of making the tourney this year is winning the ACC tourney.

[PackMan97]

I think the most important record will be the teams COVID-19 status just prior to the selection committee meeting.

I feel like there will be a fair number of teams that will not be invited because they are in COVID-19 protocols. I'm feel very certain that teams will be asked to submit to testing in the days before the committee meets.

[MarkD83]

I think the most important record will be the teams COVID-19 status just prior to the selection committee meeting.

I feel like there will be a fair number of teams that will not be invited because they are in COVID-19 protocols. I'm feel very certain that teams will be asked to submit to testing in the days before the committee meets.

Along this line of thinking...I recall the participants in the football bowl games did not have great records but were "Covid-safe" or at least willing to travel despite Covid.

So (God-forbid) if teams get into March and have records they think will get them into the NCAA would they start canceling games just to be safe for the NCAAs.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Along this line of thinking...I recall the participants in the football bowl games did not have great records but were "Covid-safe" or at least willing to travel despite Covid.

So (God-forbid) if teams get into March and have records they think will get them into the NCAA would they start canceling games just to be safe for the NCAAs.

I've heard rumblings of teams skipping conference tournaments to ensure good Covid test results.

[AGDukesky]

I think we'll be lucky to finish .500 and I do not see a .500 team getting an at large bid. Only chance we have of making the tourney this year is winning the ACC tourney.

Yeah, I think we will just need 4 wins to make the NCAAs- all of the ones we play in the ACC tournament...

[CDu]

I said in another thread, but it's more appropriate here. I suspect that 11-7 in conference with 1-2 tourney wins would be enough. 10-7 (if another game gets postponed/cancelled) would do it too I think. If we somehow play all 20, then 12-8 would probably be enough.

[Bob Green]

I just could not bring myself to counting these as losses. However, unc does not shot well from the outside and has freshman guards.

Leaky Black is a junior and Andrew Platek comes off the bench as a senior. Apologies for my negativity but Carolina is the better team. Hopefully we show significant improvement in games leading up to playing the Heels.