New line up?

[Acymetric]

IMO, Steward is also a serious scoring threat. And, Johnson will be, after getting some rust off.

Steward may one day be a serious scoring threat, but so far he is at best a secondary option.

[Jeffrey]

Steward may one day be a serious scoring threat, but so far he is at best a secondary option.

At this point, he is the equivalent of a late December freshman, but I really like his offensive potential. I wouldn’t help off of him.

[CDu]

Steward may one day be a serious scoring threat, but so far he is at best a secondary option.

At this point, he is the equivalent of a late December freshman, but I really like his offensive potential. I wouldn’t help off of him.

Yeah, I think the biggest thing for him is that his 3pt shot needs to get a bit better. If he can start hitting 35+%, that will make him much more dangerous. For whatever reason, he hasn't been as aggressive off the dribble, which is unfortunate as I think that's his best skill. He's got a bit of Luke Kennard to his game in that he's really crafty off the dribble. But for whatever reason, he's gotten a bit hesitant the last few games.

I think Steward has a fantastic bball IQ as both a scorer and ballhawk (both rebounding and steals), so I'm pretty bullish on his ability to score starting to emerge. He had seemingly made real headway beginning with the Illinois game and running up through Va Tech. But then in the Pitt game he got too 3ball happy and didn't drive (7 of his 8 shots were 3s). He needs to be more aggressive going to the basket. The Louisville game was a bit of a bounceback in that regard. And in his non-Pitt games beginning with Illinois, he's averaged 15.2 ppg shooting 46.5% from the field and 61.1% from 2pt range over that time.

[Jeffrey]

Yeah, I think the biggest thing for him is that his 3pt shot needs to get a bit better. If he can start hitting 35+%, that will make him much more dangerous. For whatever reason, he hasn't been as aggressive off the dribble, which is unfortunate as I think that's his best skill. He's got a bit of Luke Kennard to his game in that he's really crafty off the dribble. But for whatever reason, he's gotten a bit hesitant the last few games.

Strongly agree! He is quick, creative, and has a very good first step. When he becomes a real 3 point threat (IMO, his FT shooting is revealing, even though Hurt’s is confusing), then he will be very hard to guard, as his confidence builds. He is flashing a lot of early potential. Hope we see him again next season, before the NBA grabs him.

[jv001]

Strongly agree! He is quick, creative, and has a very good first step. When he becomes a real 3 point threat (IMO, his FT shooting is revealing, even though Hurt’s is confusing), then he will be very hard to guard, as his confidence builds. He is flashing a lot of early potential. Hope we see him again next season, before the NBA grabs him.

Sporkzzz. I think DJ is going to be a very good player. I love his attitude, hustle and he plays bigger than his size. I watch players when they get back down the court on defense. One thing I've noticed, JJ sometimes runs about half speed. DJ and Goldwire sprint back down court. Matter of fact so does Wendell most of the time, Although when he was in his terrible funk, he didn't. Little things help win basketball games and shouldn't be taken for granted.

GoDuke!

[Troublemaker]

So I don’t think I buy the “zone is causing fouls” argument.

I agree. Michigan State (39.7% FTR against us vs. 30.0% for the season) and Wake Forest (43.8% FTR against us vs. 33.8% for the season) both got to the line against us a lot more than they usually do. And I don't believe we played any zone in either game. For the season, our opposing Free Throw Rate is 54th worst in the nation (9th worst in the "Big Six"). So our fouling problem probably has another root.

To be clear, I'm not saying Duke didn't have a fouling issue even before the 3-2 zone. I'm saying the zone has worsened it. Again, our two worst FTR games came when playing that zone. I do believe, given time, the fouling will decrease in the zone.

Yes, it would be helpful to see those data on Hurt defending guards - unfortunately I don’t know of any site that does this at the college level. I have a very different impression of Hurt’s defense on guards than you. For example, Jones absolutely dissected Hurt in high-ball screens down the stretch, repeatedly drawing fouls. If I was a coach with a good guard facing a man-to-man Duke D, I would be calling for high ball screens to iso Hurt repeatedly. Teams did it successfully as the season progressed last year, and I fear Louisville put forth the blueprint moving forward. Hopefully not, but we will see.

Yes, you do. I believe if you rewatched the 2nd half from the point where we went m2m, you'll see Hurt holding up very well on switches and against Louisville's isolation tactics. I'm certain Matt stoned David Johnson twice by staying in front and contesting him well into misses, and I believe he contested Carlik Jones into at least two bad misses as well. Jones did get Matt twice -- one on a long 2 that he made (although arguably you live with that shot) and one when he crucially fouled out Matt, who shouldn't have been reaching in. But overall, Lville trying to take Matt 1-on-1 after we switched to m2m was highly inefficient. Even their center traveled once trying to iso on Matt, lol.

In the halfcourt, Matt is fools' gold for opposing offenses. I do think he has many struggles as a transition defender.

[Kedsy]

So I've been thinking about our perimeter players and why they are perhaps not playing at an optimal level. My focus for this discussion is on offense and whether or not each player is operating in the best role for him. Specifically, I'm looking at the percent of a player's baskets that are assisted compared to the player's assist% (passing to others) and eFG%.

Let's start by looking at the team as a whole. Here's a table showing Duke's assist% (which for the team is the same as %assisted) vs. eFG% in each of the past 10 seasons:

Year	%asstd	eFG%
2018	57.6	55.9
2014	54.8	53.8
2015	53.5	56.6
2019	52.4	53.6
2013	52.1	53.9
2020	52.1	52.6
2021	50.4	51.3
2016	48.6	53.7
2012	48.4	52.8
2017	47.5	54.8

As you can see, the Duke teams with the highest assist% tend to shoot well, but there may not be a true correlation since the Duke team with the lowest assist% has the 3rd-best eFG%. It may be worth noting that this year's team has a fairly low assist% as well as the lowest eFG% over (at least) the past 10 years.

My analysis today involves the performance of individual players. I'm looking at perimeter players only, mostly from the past 5 seasons, with a few others from the previous 5 years thrown in for comparison.

First, a look at point guards:

Player			%asstd	asst%	eFG%
Tre Jones 2019		43.2	24.0	45.6
Quinn Cook 2013		41.7	29.0	49.2
Tyus Jones 2015		37.8	27.5	48.9
Jeremy Roach 2021	30.6	17.8	48.8
Trevon Duval 2018	29.7	30.3	47.3
Tre Jones 2020		22.8	31.4	47.4

Because PGs have the ball in their hands a lot, by necessity fewer of their FGs are going to be assisted. Perhaps because of that, as well as the fact that PGs tend to focus more on distribution than on shooting, their eFG% tends to be lower, but they make up for that with a higher assist%.

Jeremy Roach is in the middle, as far as %assisted (perhaps a bit on the low side), and his eFG% is also in the middle (a bit on the high side, even). But what painfully stands out is his assist%, way too low to be compared to the others in this group. With this team, I think it would be best if he focused on distributing the ball. Alternatively, he could focus more on catching the ball where he can shoot it and not trying to create his own shot, because he's just not so good at that right now. But his hanging out in the "no man's land" could be a big reason why our offense tends to sputter.

Next, a quick look at players who just want to do it all by themselves:

Player			%asstd	asst%	eFG%
Jayson Tatum 2017	38.2	12.4	50.7
Wendell Moore 2020	28.1	12.6	42.9
Austin Rivers 2012	19.5	13.0	50.5

Some players tend to handle the ball a lot, but mostly for their own purposes. These guys are high-end passers for shooting guards, but rarely catch-and-shoot. Austin Rivers in 2012 was perhaps the most extreme example of this kind of player, but as you can see, Wendell Moore followed this pattern last season. The thing is, from our small sample, to succeed at this you have to have an eFG% higher than 50%, and Wendell didn't make that cut. As many have noted this season, he really can't be effective in this role.

Next, a look at some catch-and-shoot players:

Player			%asstd	asst%	eFG%
Andre Dawkins 2014	78.6	5.6	61.4
Alex O'Connell 2018	78.6	7.8	60.2
Gary Trent 2018		68.9	6.8	52.8
Alex O'Connell 2019	67.3	6.4	56.9
Joey Baker 2020		64.0	10.7	52.5
Wendell Moore 2021	55.6	9.8	39.1
Alex O'Connell 2020	55.0	9.9	47.6
Joey Baker 2021		42.9	3.7	34.0

I put Andre Dawkins in here as an extreme example, but for this type player, the more your shot is assisted, the better you shoot. For example, look at Alex O'Connell. When 79% of his baskets were assisted, his eFG% was outstanding. But each year he tried to do more, and by 2020 when he was only assisted on 55% of his baskets, his eFG% became unacceptable.

Wendell Moore seems to be learning this lesson. Early on in the season he was trying to be a DIY player and his shooting numbers were awful. His season numbers are still awful, but he's been catching and shooting enough to start pulling them up. Joey Baker has only made 7 field goals this season, so his numbers might be a little deceptive, but he needs to learn that same lesson. The more he shoots on a catch, the better he'll be.

Next, let's look at "regular" shooting guards:

Player			%asstd	asst%	eFG%
Quinn Cook 2015		62.8	13.2	56.9
Matt Jones 2017		58.9	9.7	50.4
Cam Reddish		57.8	10.7	45.9
Cassius Stanley 2020	50.8	6.6	53.1
Seth Curry 2013		47.2	9.7	57.7
Frank Jackson 2017	45.9	12.6	56.4
DJ Steward 2021		44.7	12.0	50.0
Luke Kennard 2017	40.5	13.6	57.9

These guys pass a little bit, plus create shots for themselves (though not nearly so much as the DIY folks), and also catch-and-shoot. It's possible the guys at the top of this table belong more in the catch-and-shoot group and it's possible the guys at the bottom might be categorized in the do-it-yourself group. One fascinating thing to me is how different Quinn Cook's profile was in 2015, when he played shooting guard, then it was in 2013 as a point guard. Obviously his assist% dropped from 29% to 13%, but much more interesting, his %assisted number jumped from 42% to 63% and his eFG% made a corresponding jump from 49% to 57%. To me, that's very cool and illustrates how a shift in role might benefit some of our guards this season.

As far as DJ Steward is concerned, he appears to be attempting to create his own shot like Frank Jackson and Luke Kennard, but is only shooting as well as Matt Jones. Maybe next season he can be Kennard, but this season I suspect he needs to be more of a catch-and-shoot guy to optimize his efficiency. Either that or go full-on Austin Rivers and try to take advantage of his driving ability. Personally, I'd prefer to see the former.

Finally, a look at some "true" combo guards:

Player			%asstd	asst%	eFG%
Grayson Allen 2018	58.0	21.2	53.6
Grayson Allen 2017	57.4	21.5	50.8
RJ Barrett 2019		45.1	23.5	50.6
Jordan Goldwire 2021	44.4	19.7	47.0
Jordan Goldwire 2020	36.2	14.4	55.9

These are players who find open shooters almost as well as PGs, but also look for their own. I was surprised that RJ Barrett fit in this category, but with that assist% it would be hard to put him anywhere else. This table also makes me think all of Grayson Allen's shenanigans made him underappreciated. He has a very high catch-and-shoot rate as well as a consistently high assist rate. Which seems to me to be pretty hard to accomplish.

As for Jordan Goldwire, the fact that he can be in the same conversation as those other guys is quite an achievement for someone was wasn't even ranked in the top 250 coming out of high school. His numbers also appear backwards, as he shot better with fewer assisted shots. Even after a deep dive into his numbers, I can't explain it.


Anyway, no great revelations here, but if Roach and Steward can fit more into roles than trying to do everything, and Moore and Baker focus on being pure catch-and-shoot guys, I suspect the overall offense will be better off.

[CDu]

To be clear, I'm not saying Duke didn't have a fouling issue even before the 3-2 zone. I'm saying the zone has worsened it. Again, our two worst FTR games came when playing that zone. I do believe, given time, the fouling will decrease in the zone.

Again, I'll point out that these were two of the more FTR happy opponents we have faced, and by a wide margin. So I definitely am not buying what you are selling here. Especially since the fouling increased in this last game after we switched out of zone and back to man.

Yes, you do. I believe if you rewatched the 2nd half from the point where we went m2m, you'll see Hurt holding up very well on switches and against Louisville's isolation tactics. I'm certain Matt stoned David Johnson twice by staying in front and contesting him well into misses, and I believe he contested Carlik Jones into at least two bad misses as well. Jones did get Matt twice -- one on a long 2 that he made (although arguably you live with that shot) and one when he crucially fouled out Matt, who shouldn't have been reaching in. But overall, Lville trying to take Matt 1-on-1 after we switched to m2m was highly inefficient. Even their center traveled once trying to iso on Matt, lol.

In the halfcourt, Matt is fools' gold for opposing offenses. I do think he has many struggles as a transition defender.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one.

[mkirsh]

Yeah, I think the biggest thing for him is that his 3pt shot needs to get a bit better. If he can start hitting 35+%, that will make him much more dangerous. For whatever reason, he hasn't been as aggressive off the dribble, which is unfortunate as I think that's his best skill. He's got a bit of Luke Kennard to his game in that he's really crafty off the dribble. But for whatever reason, he's gotten a bit hesitant the last few games.

I think Steward has a fantastic bball IQ as both a scorer and ballhawk (both rebounding and steals), so I'm pretty bullish on his ability to score starting to emerge. He had seemingly made real headway beginning with the Illinois game and running up through Va Tech. But then in the Pitt game he got too 3ball happy and didn't drive (7 of his 8 shots were 3s). He needs to be more aggressive going to the basket. The Louisville game was a bit of a bounceback in that regard. And in his non-Pitt games beginning with Illinois, he's averaged 15.2 ppg shooting 46.5% from the field and 61.1% from 2pt range over that time.

I think Steward’s biggest issue is cliche but it’s just adjusting to the speed of the game. Many of his drives early on in the season resulted in charges, which he still struggles with, so he needs to learn how to pick his spots and attack with a bit more control. And unfortunately he has caught the “Luke Kennard/Matt Jones/Jason Williams highly regarded shooter freshman shooting slump” which makes driving even more difficult for him as his shot isn’t getting a ton of respect. If he and Roach could become better from 3 the entire complexion of this team would change, but I’m not confident of an in-season turn around for either (but Steward more likely based on reputation)

[Kedsy]

As far as DJ Steward is concerned, he appears to be attempting to create his own shot like Frank Jackson and Luke Kennard, but is only shooting as well as Matt Jones. Maybe next season he can be Kennard, but this season I suspect he needs to be more of a catch-and-shoot guy to optimize his efficiency. Either that or go full-on Austin Rivers and try to take advantage of his driving ability. Personally, I'd prefer to see the former.

FWIW, against GaTech, DJ was assisted on 4 of his 5 baskets (80%).

[DukieInBrasil]

I think Steward’s biggest issue is cliche but it’s just adjusting to the speed of the game. Many of his drives early on in the season resulted in charges, which he still struggles with, so he needs to learn how to pick his spots and attack with a bit more control. And unfortunately he has caught the “Luke Kennard/Matt Jones/Jason Williams highly regarded shooter freshman shooting slump” which makes driving even more difficult for him as his shot isn’t getting a ton of respect. If he and Roach could become better from 3 the entire complexion of this team would change, but I’m not confident of an in-season turn around for either (but Steward more likely based on reputation)

he did a much better job of both shooting 3s and driving with purpose vs. GA Tech. Clearly his best game in a Duke uni.

[Troublemaker]

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one.

I mean, we could, but it's a weird one to do that with since everything's on tape. I think one of us just remembered Lville's isos against Matt incorrectly.

Again, I'll point out that these were two of the more FTR happy opponents we have faced, and by a wide margin. So I definitely am not buying what you are selling here. Especially since the fouling increased in this last game after we switched out of zone and back to man.

*This* is one where I'd more happily agree to disagree on since it's so subjective and can't be proven either way. I do believe the zone worsened our fouling problems because it was a new defense to our guys who were unfamiliar with how to move within it, and I know you disagree. Since I can't *prove* it, though, we can agree to disagree.

I'm just glad that we went back to m2m against GaTech and immediately had a low-fouling game. And I hope we stick with m2m as the predominant defense going forward and only use zones (preferably a 2-3) as a changeup within a game.

[CDu]

I mean, we could, but it's a weird one to do that with since everything's on tape. I think one of us just remembered Lville's isos against Matt incorrectly.

I'll be sure to go back and re-watch if/when I have time. It's not high on my priority list, which was why I said agree to disagree. But...

*This* is one where I'd more happily agree to disagree on since it's so subjective and can't be proven either way. I do believe the zone worsened our fouling problems because it was a new defense to our guys who were unfamiliar with how to move within it, and I know you disagree. Since I can't *prove* it, though, we can agree to disagree.

I think it's weird to say that it's subjective that Louisville and Pitt are way better at drawing fouls than Wake/BC/ND/GT. That's very objectively true.

It's also true that we committed 14 fouls in the second half of the Louisville game (when we were predominantly in man-to-man) compared with 9 fouls in the first half (when we were in zone).

I think we switched to zone in part specifically because we were foul prone, and those two opponents were good at drawing fouls. Now, THAT is certainly subjective and can't be proven unless we had access to the inner circle at Duke. Whereas we went back to the man against a team like Tech that doesn't draw fouls.

Regardless, I think we agree that as long as Johnson and Hurt stay out of foul trouble man-to-man is a better defense for us. The only difference is that I think man-to-man accentuates the risk of foul trouble for those two guys in particular. I don't agree that the zone accentuated our foul trouble in those games, but that's really secondary to my main point which was trying to keep those two guys on the floor as much as possible.