MBB: Louisville 70, Duke 65 Post Game Thread

[weezie]

Low Basketball I Q team. Hurt should have not fouled out. Steward and Roach make poor decisions at key possessions. Baker couldn’t have had a more wide open look. Got to be automatic. Had it handed to Joey on a silver platter.Steward as well. Johnson may be 1 and done . He will ride the bench in the NBA . Too error prone. He should have saved us after Hurt fouled out. He has the ability. He should have taken over the last few minutes. Frustrating team basketball. This team is not getting better.
So many forced errors.

That's the best game summary I've seen. With the possible exception that Johnson was back on the bench after he made his shot at the end. Can't do much from the sidelines.
Too much is being asked of Hurt. Play center, defend and do not foul, play SG float outside and shoot 3s.

[Bob Green]

That's the best game summary I've seen. With the possible exception that Johnson was back on the bench after he made his shot at the end. Can't do much from the sidelines.
Too much is being asked of Hurt. Play center, defend and do not foul, play SG float outside and shoot 3s.

Johnson was back on the bench because he had four fouls. Coach K was employing standard offense-defense substitution.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Low Basketball I Q team. Hurt should have not fouled out. Steward and Roach make poor decisions at key possessions. Baker couldn’t have had a more wide open look. Got to be automatic. Had it handed to Joey on a silver platter.Steward as well. Johnson may be 1 and done . He will ride the bench in the NBA . Too error prone. He should have saved us after Hurt fouled out. He has the ability. He should have taken over the last few minutes. Frustrating team basketball. This team is not getting better.
So many forced errors.

"Low basketball IQ" sounds a bit harsh. Maybe we are talking about the same thing, but I just felt like I saw really poor decision making on both ends of the floor.

"Low basketball IQ" seems to suggest it is an insurmountable issue. "Poor decision making" is coachable. I hope.

Toe-may-toe, toe-mah-toe - I hope we don't call the whole thing off. Just yet.

[Natty_B]

Yes, it a perfect comparison by any means. Just pointing out that among top tier teams, Duke has perhaps been hit hardest by COVID cancellations, and we’re seeing its effects. Plus, we aren’t alone in our struggles. Of course Kansas is having a better season than us, extra three games or no. But context is key, and Kansas is a useful point of comparison for that context.

Out of the struggling blue bloods I have a feeling Duke could end up worse than any of them. Even Kentucky is playing a little better. And Kentucky has a history of getting better as the season goes along Duke really doesn’t. I also think comparisons based on COVID cancellations is totally pointless. One K decided to cancel two of those games himself. Two as has been stated many times they were against sub 250 teams so wouldn’t have helped in any way besides record stuffing. I’m skeptical they would have helped the team get to know each other better. Is playing Charleston Southern once that much better than months of scrimmages which is where Duke is now in terms of the team getting to know each other? It’s late January they know each other now delay or not. And Duke hasn’t been put through nearly the grinder of a Big 12 or Big 10 schedule. What I’m saying is based on all available evidence context is key and context says it could get real ugly.

[roywhite]

And, not to be snarky, because I've known you for maybe 30 years, would/could you care to elaborate on this point?

Yeah, on the topic of getting to the free throw line, Billy Packer used to talk a lot about how Duke teams had more made free throws than their opponents attempted, and how this was a big advantage. (Packer eventually switched his theme to "Duke gets all the calls", but that was Billy). Vitale also picked up the theme.

A sample of seasons:

2018-19
Duke 14.5 FT made on 21.1 attempts per game
Opponents 10.6 FT made on 15.2 attempts per game

2017-18
Duke -- 15.2 FT on 21.4 attempts
Opponents -- 10.4 -- 14.2

2016-17
Duke 17.4 -- 22.8
Opponents 13.3 -- 18.7

2014-15
Duke 15.6 -- 22.4
Opponents 9.7 -- 14.1

1991-92
Duke 21.7 -- 29.0
Opponents 10.5 -- 16.2

So, Duke had a big edge in Free throws, and in some years did make more FTs than the opponents attempted; that great 91-92 team had a stunning differential.
This came from the style of play and the ability of many Duke players to drive toward the basket.

But the stats for 2020-21 thus far are way different
Duke --- 99 FT made on 147 attempts
Opponents -- 145 FT made on 207 attempts

It's an important stat which reflects on the style and personnel of this year's team, and why they are struggling.

[sagegrouse]

In the case of this student from the Chronicle, K just seemed like he was in a bad mood and got testy in a way that was out of proportion to the tenor of the question being asked. He’s getting piled on in the way you’d expect all over social media, something I’m sure he doesn’t care one bit about.

Why would Coach K have been in a bad mood after yesterday's game?

[jv001]

I don't know if any of these stats have been posted, sorry if they have. I had to wait until this morning to post. I was so disappointed last night. Not at the team because they did seem to fight.

Moore 34 min. 9 points 4-10, 1-5, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 tos......plus minus..-11
JJ- 20 min,. 9 points, 4-8, 2-2, 4 rebounds, 0 assists. 6 tos.....plus minus..-9
Hurt= 35 mins, 24 points, 9-13, 4-5, 8 rebounds, 0 assists, 3 tos....plus minus..+2
DJ, 28 min. 13 points, 4-8, 1-4, 2 rebounds, 0 assists, 2 tos......plus minus...-2
Roach= 26 min. 0 points, 0-3, 0-2, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 tos.....plus minus...-9
Baker= 17 mins, 3 points, 1-5, 1-4, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 0 tos,....plus minus...+7
Goldwire= 27 mins, 2-5, 1-3, 1 rebound, 1 assist, 0 tos......plus minus...-1
Coleman= 5 mins, all zeros except 1 foul...........plus minus...+3
Brakefield= 5 mins, 2 pts, rest zeros.............plus minus...-5

I don't usually pay much attention to the plus minus but I thought I would add it this time.
Some thoughts, some eye test and some stats ^

JJ is just not consistent. If he played just an average JJ at the beginning of the game, we probably win comfortably. His early turnovers really hurt . I thought the zone was good when Joey Baker was in the game. He moved well and didn't leave any big gaps in the zone. Hurt was terrific and the foul call that took him out of the game was terrible. If there was a foul it was on Goldwire. Roach has shown he is not a good college point guard. Well not a Duke point guard. Goldwire played well once we went to man2man.

GoDuke!

[devildeac]

Yeah, on the topic of getting to the free throw line, Billy Packer used to talk a lot about how Duke teams had more made free throws than their opponents attempted, and how this was a big advantage. (Packer eventually switched his theme to "Duke gets all the calls", but that was Billy). Vitale also picked up the theme.

A sample of seasons:

2018-19
Duke 14.5 FT made on 21.1 attempts per game
Opponents 10.6 FT made on 15.2 attempts per game

2017-18
Duke -- 15.2 FT on 21.4 attempts
Opponents -- 10.4 -- 14.2

2016-17
Duke 17.4 -- 22.8
Opponents 13.3 -- 18.7

2014-15
Duke 15.6 -- 22.4
Opponents 9.7 -- 14.1

1991-92
Duke 21.7 -- 29.0
Opponents 10.5 -- 16.2

So, Duke had a big edge in Free throws, and in some years did make more FTs than the opponents attempted; that great 91-92 team had a stunning differential.
This came from the style of play and the ability of many Duke players to drive toward the basket.

But the stats for 2020-21 thus far are way different
Duke --- 99 FT made on 147 attempts
Opponents -- 145 FT made on 207 attempts

It's an important stat which reflects on the style and personnel of this year's team, and why they are struggling.

I knew you'd come through. Thanks!!

[moonpie23]

K being accused of "lashing out"...puh-leez...i've seen him "lash out", this was nothing but some picky crap..

caution - salty language...

[jv001]

One other thing about the game. When Hurt picked up his fourth foul, I said ok, Coach K will go zone here to protect him from fouling out because that's the worst thing that can happen. Well he didn't and he fouled out. Plus the zone would have stopped the dribble penetration. Carik Jones had 24 points and 6-15, 1-2. But he killed us with 11-12 FTs and his dribble penetration. and by getting fouls on our guys. They had 4 players in double figures; Withers 13, Johnson 12 and Davis with 11. Duke had 2 players in double figures, Hurt 24 and DJ with 13. Hurt and Steward combined for 13-21. Moore and Johnson both had 9 points on combined shooting 8-18. But they also combined for 8 of our 15 turnovers(Johnson 6). Hurt had 3 of his own. The 7 assist total combined with 15 turnovers pretty much tells the story why we lost.

GoDuke!

[rsvman]

One other thing about the game. When Hurt picked up his fourth foul, I said ok, Coach K will go zone here to protect him from fouling out because that's the worst thing that can happen. Well he didn't and he fouled out. Plus the zone would have stopped the dribble penetration. Carik Jones had 24 points and 6-15, 1-2. But he killed us with 11-12 FTs and his dribble penetration. and by getting fouls on our guys. They had 4 players in double figures; Withers 13, Johnson 12 and Davis with 11. Duke had 2 players in double figures, Hurt 24 and DJ with 13. Hurt and Steward combined for 13-21. Moore and Johnson both had 9 points on combined shooting 8-18. But they also combined for 8 of our 15 turnovers(Johnson 6). Hurt had 3 of his own. The 7 assist total combined with 15 turnovers pretty much tells the story why we lost.

GoDuke!

Agree. I think sticking with the m2m really hurt us in the long run. At the very least we should have sprinkled the zone in during the second half, especially once our bigs were in foul trouble.

[jv001]

Agree. I think sticking with the m2m really hurt us in the long run. At the very least we should have sprinkled the zone in during the second half, especially once our bigs were in foul trouble.

Yes and I think the zone looked much better when Baker was in the lineup. One other interesting thing was when Brakefield came in, we didn't look as sharp on defense or offense. He's regressed.

GoDuke!

[Troublemaker]

Hurt is by far our best offensive weapon, but I struggle to think of a recent Duke team he would start on.

Whoa, this is taking being down on this team way too far. Our best player is *not* a bench player on recent teams. Let's just run through the recent teams.

2020 - Freshman Hurt actually started 22 games, and so I'm guessing this far superior sophomore version would start.

2019 - We would've had to rename Matt "Manna from Heaven" given his 47.3% 3-pt shooting. Yes, he would've bumped Bolden/DeLaurier from the starting lineup and given Zion and RJ more space to operate.

2018 - This one's interesting because of Wendell and Marvin. The key is that we were already playing zone, anyway, and so even though I'm not sure other coaches would do this, *I* would've started Hurt alongside those two on the backline and started Grayson and Gary up top in the zone, bumping Duval to the bench. (A lot depends on how happy you were with Duval's PG play. I wasn't that happy and would've preferred having three reliable shooters surrounding Wendell and Marvin instead).

2017 - This one's a tossup since Amile was also an undersized 5. I could see preferring Amile's better defense (although he wasn't a great defender at the 5, merely good), but I could also see playing the stretch 5 in Hurt so that Jayson, Grayson, and Frank could have more room to drive.

2016 - He would've started at PF, bumping the skinny frosh Ingram to SF. (The original plan before Amile got hurt). In smallball lineups, if that's what we preferred, he would've played over MP3, as much as I loved MP3's improvements his senior season.


I think Hurt is having a great season (even though he's not perfect, of course) and is being let down by his inconsistent teammates.

[BlueDevilStop]

Oof, that’s gonna leave a mark!

Once again competitive but no possibility of figuring out a way to win.

Did Roach suit up today? Back-breaking turnovers at exactly the wrong times.


I guess I’m the new Ozzie, because I continue to think this team is better than their record. But there is some intangible that is missing. It seems like every time they take a lead they let their foot of the gas and allow the other team a run of 5 or 10 points. I have yet to really see them “build a lead” except against ND and one of the early cupcakes. It’s like they haven’t got any killer instinct or something.

I think Coach K should’ve gone back to the zone in the last 5 or 6 minutes, or maybe even earlier. That might have been enough to eke out a win.


From the fan standpoint, all I can do is just keep cheering them on and hoping for brighter days ahead. Whether said days will actually show up is entirely another question.

Really rough game from Roach, you're right, some back-breaking turnovers. He is going through some growing pains right now. Still think he gets back on track this season.

[jv001]

Whoa, this is taking being down on this team way too far. Our best player is *not* a bench player on recent teams. Let's just run through the recent teams.

2020 - Freshman Hurt actually started 22 games, and so I'm guessing this far superior sophomore version would start.

2019 - We would've had to rename Matt "Manna from Heaven" given his 47.3% 3-pt shooting. Yes, he would've bumped Bolden/DeLaurier from the starting lineup and given Zion and RJ more space to operate.

2018 - This one's interesting because of Wendell and Marvin. The key is that we were already playing zone, anyway, and so even though I'm not sure other coaches would do this, *I* would've started Hurt alongside those two on the backline and started Grayson and Gary up top in the zone, bumping Duval to the bench. (A lot depends on how happy you were with Duval's PG play. I wasn't that happy and would've preferred having three reliable shooters surrounding Wendell and Marvin instead).

2017 - This one's a tossup since Amile was also an undersized 5. I could see preferring Amile's better defense (although he wasn't a great defender at the 5, merely good), but I could also see playing the stretch 5 in Hurt so that Jayson, Grayson, and Frank could have more room to drive.

2016 - He would've started at PF, bumping the skinny frosh Ingram to SF. (The original plan before Amile got hurt). In smallball lineups, if that's what we preferred, he would've played over MP3, as much as I loved MP3's improvements his senior season.


I think Hurt is having a great season (even though he's not perfect, of course) and is being let down by his inconsistent teammates.

I agree, Hurt is not the problem and he would have gotten major minutes the past few years. He fouled out at the 1:50 mark. The last 2:07 minutes Duke scored 2 points, the last 1:30 minutes Duke scored no points. Someone else must pick up the slack. So far no one else has been consistent.

[ClemmonsDevil]

I knew you'd come through. Thanks!!

Nice to revisit this as well. Featherston's article hits on the importance of this stat.

https://www.dukebasketballreport.com...nd-officiating

[Bob Green]

Jim Sumner recap on front page:

https://www.dukebasketballreport.com...louisville-acc

And a nice article from Scott Rich (scottdude8):

https://www.dukebasketballreport.com...dj-steward-acc

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Why would Coach K have been in a bad mood after yesterday's game?

Wow, what a bunch of negativity on this thread. Our players can’t play and our HOF coach can’t coach. I even read that Joey’s wide open three to probably win the game was a bad shot. Are you kidding me? I suspect Coach will have their backs and their attention. I’m not ready to give up. Some of the comments on here remind me of IC board. Sad! Let’s go DUKE!

[MartyClark]

Wow, what a bunch of negativity on this thread. Our players can’t play and our HOF coach can’t coach. I even read that Joey’s wide open three to probably win the game was a bad shot. Are you kidding me? I suspect Coach will have their backs and their attention. I’m not ready to give up. Some of the comments on here remind me of IC board. Sad! Let’s go DUKE!

Would you accept a middle ground on this? How about "Our team is not playing very well and Coach K seems to be a bit lost during the games"?

[ClemmonsDevil]

Would you accept a middle ground on this? How about "Our team is not playing very well and Coach K seems to be a bit lost during the games"?

Yikes. First part seems ok. I don't think the 2nd part seems ok.