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  1. #61
    Quote Originally Posted by kshepinthehouse View Post
    ... No matter how Johnson was playing he surely wasn’t playing as bad as some other unnamed players.
    And when he finally did get back in he quickly scored. Then pulled again. Not sure how he's going to learn much that way.
    Nothing incites bodily violence quicker than a Duke fan turning in your direction and saying 'scoreboard.'

  2. #62
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Lewisville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    Duke is now 81-244 from 3 on the season for 33.2%.
    Which is better than the 2018-19 team that included Zion, RJ and Cam Reddish. They were 30.8% from 3-pt

    It is an important stat, and it certainly was a problem for the 2018-19 team, but 33.2% is not terrible. The more alarming stat IMO is the deficit in Free Throws taken and made vs the Opponents numbers.

  3. #63
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Yeah, no. As we said before, 3 meaningless wins against patsies still leaves us .500 in conference with no meaningful wins. People would be (rightfully) very concerned still.
    while the NET does take a while to converge so something sensible, we're currently 90. I don't think we have a win vs the KP spread yet (though would have to check, and even if we did, it's like 1...). We're 33 there and trending downward. Our best win is #85 ND, and we only have a single game against a tournament lock left on our schedule.

    For a team in our position, the season is running out VERY quickly.
    1200. DDMF.

  4. #64
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    while the NET does take a while to converge so something sensible, we're currently 90. I don't think we have a win vs the KP spread yet (though would have to check, and even if we did, it's like 1...). We're 33 there and trending downward. Our best win is #85 ND, and we only have a single game against a tournament lock left on our schedule.

    For a team in our position, the season is running out VERY quickly.
    I wanted to post this after the last game but felt like I was going to get dogpiled for being negative...I think we have a better shot at finishing under .500 than we do at making the tournament. The pieces on this team just do not fit well together (I'm not convinced more time to gel would fix it) and in particular I don't think our two best players compliment each other very well. I'll also echo what a few others have mentioned about Hurt. I really like Hurt and he is a good player, but if he is far and away your best guy your team is probably lacking something.

  5. #65
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    Which is better than the 2018-19 team that included Zion, RJ and Cam Reddish. They were 30.8% from 3-pt

    It is an important stat, and it certainly was a problem for the 2018-19 team, but 33.2% is not terrible. The more alarming stat IMO is the deficit in Free Throws taken and made vs the Opponents numbers.
    Yeah, no doubt. And I would rather have Zion (virtually unstoppable offensively) and RJ/Cam (first rounders) and shoot 30.8% than the talent Duke has on this team and shoot 33.2%. Agree on the free theres deficit. I have been following that stat closely the past few games and it is very alarming. Duke typically always made more free throws than their opponents attempted. They just aren’t attacking the rim as much this year and don’t typically have leads at the end of games where they’re getting fouled intentionally.

    This offense is puzzling. No clear alpha (Hurt can be that guy but fouls too much) and it just appears disjointed at times.

    I’m not done with this season yet but if everyone returns next year (minus Goldwire who is a senior), Duke will be legit. Johnson is probably one and done but I would love to see Hurt play another year at Duke along with Steward, Moore, Roach, Williams, Baker, Brakefield, Coleman along with the recruits. That would be a talented roster.

  6. #66
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    while the NET does take a while to converge so something sensible, we're currently 90. I don't think we have a win vs the KP spread yet (though would have to check, and even if we did, it's like 1...). We're 33 there and trending downward. Our best win is #85 ND, and we only have a single game against a tournament lock left on our schedule.

    For a team in our position, the season is running out VERY quickly.
    This team is wearing me out. Just too many mistakes. I keep hoping Baker will find his shot but I think it is not happening. That is a huge loss for the team. The Freshman are having their usual up and down games- so that is what to expect. Hurt has done everything one can ask of him offensively. The season comes down to this home stretch of games. If there is not quick improvement- then no NCAA tourney.

  7. #67
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    The win was there for the taking but we just didn’t hit the shots when it mattered. For the most part it was an even game that could have gone either way, neither team could really take control although Louisville did lead for most of it. Foul/free throw disparity is the biggest issue for the team now that we’ve managed to reduce our turnovers somewhat. Hurt is a prolific scorer but his style of play (fadeaway turnaround jumpers and three pointers) does not lend itself to drawing fouls. Everybody else on the team seems to drive with the intent of kicking out, not attacking the basket. Dribble into the lane and then immediately turn and look for someone to pass out to. No post scoring and no three point shooting so we’re left with really inefficient mid range shots, low percentage threes and anemic free throw numbers.

    I admit that I was critical of the zone in the Pitt game, but K stuck with it and that seemed to pay off in this game. He recognizes that keeping Hurt and Johnson out of foul trouble is essential, but even with the protection of the zone it didn’t really work. I would love to see how our offense could look with both of those guys on the court together for extended minutes.

    Roach was nonexistent and Steward not much better. I see them improving throughout the year but not making massive leaps until the offseason. Johnson started out trying to do too much and then got out of his rhythm. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that his two best games by far have been the first game of the season and his first game after a long layoff. When he relaxes and lets the game come to him then his natural talent comes through, but too often he overthinks.

    A winnable home game coming up against GT. As a fan I’m just going to take it one game at a time.

  8. #68
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Hilton Head, SC
    I want to applaud Coach K for picking this year to have his worst team since 1982/83. The prospect of driving 5.5 hours each way to watch this team is deeply disturbing so a big shout out to Kevin White and other Duke administrators for banning spectators this year. It is a lot easier to watch them struggle in front of the tv.

    Someone upthread was lamenting Coach K’s one and done recruiting strategy. One of the major problems is that none of these six recruits has shown consistent one and done talent. We didn’t land anyone in the top 10 and as well as Hurt has played it is hard to imagine him defending anyone in the NBA. For that matter can he get his shot off in the NBA? Yes, I know that the NBA drafts on potential and I know that Duke players bolt to the league even if it means the second round, so we will probably lose Hurt and Johnson. The sad thing is that in two years this team would be darn good. Will we get to enjoy the fruit of experience or will most of these guys be gone to the D league or the transfer portal?

  9. #69
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    Which is better than the 2018-19 team that included Zion, RJ and Cam Reddish. They were 30.8% from 3-pt

    It is an important stat, and it certainly was a problem for the 2018-19 team, but 33.2% is not terrible. The more alarming stat IMO is the deficit in Free Throws taken and made vs the Opponents numbers.
    And, not to be snarky, because I've known you for maybe 30 years, would/could you care to elaborate on this point?
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  10. #70
    I know I’m totally cherry picking numbers here but since duke had that great moment when they beat UNC on a buzzer beater, beat FSU two days later and then beat Notre Dame by 30+ they’ve gone 9-8. Even over two seasons that has to be one of the worst stretches in decades.

  11. #71
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    Which is better than the 2018-19 team that included Zion, RJ and Cam Reddish. They were 30.8% from 3-pt

    It is an important stat, and it certainly was a problem for the 2018-19 team, but 33.2% is not terrible. The more alarming stat IMO is the deficit in Free Throws taken and made vs the Opponents numbers.
    There are many things that are problematic here, and most of them are true for every NCAA basketball team. One thing I'm noticing is that the pre-season prep, starting with second summer session, teaches the players what a winning culture is. I think one reason we lost today is that we haven't figured out what to do to make sure to win (or to really try to win). Having so many games cancelled or postponed... these kids don't know each other, can't anticipate each other's moves, and aren't playing instinctual basketball. Major problem is to find someone other than Matt to score. I'm shocked that no one has stepped up.

    But two other issues are critical. The number and timing of turnovers is staggering. Every time we had a chance to take the lead or when we had the lead with a chance to increase it, someone turned the ball over: Johnson (6), Hurt (3), Goldwire, Moore Steward and Roach (2+ each). Fifteen overall if the box score is right. This killed us, killed our momentum, took the wind out of our lungs... bad.

    The other is the free throw issue mentioned earlier. The ONLY free throws shot today were Johnson (1-2), Hurt (2-3), and Steward (4-4). Nine free throws in any college game is astonishingly low. Louisville shot 24 and made 18. if we take away that differential (11 free throw points they had), we win. If we take away half of what they got, we win. Where is JJ when you need him?

    Last comment: It is hard on us to watch this. It is much much harder to play in and coach this. Let's be supportive and give them some time!
    DukeDevilDeb

  12. #72
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    "Oh, somewhere in this favoured land the sun is shining bright,
    The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light;
    And somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout,
    But there is no joy in Mudville—mighty Casey has struck out."
    "This is the best of all possible worlds."
    Dr. Pangloss - Candide

  13. #73
    Quote Originally Posted by kshepinthehouse View Post
    Great point. It hasn’t been a strength in years. From memory, seems like Kennard was our last great 3 point shooter. The one and some era hasn’t produced many great shooters for us. Grayson was a pretty good shooter but not on the level of Kennard, and, if memory serves me correctly, didn’t shoot the 3 as well his senior year for whatever reason.
    I'd say Gary Trent. But this is where OAD (especially unexpected OADs) have really hurt us. While I don't expect the second coming of JJ Redick to walk through the door, we probably haven't had a truly outstanding 3pt shooting team (thinking top 50) since 2016, and 2015 before that. Last year wasn't terrible (35%), but when compared to stronger shooting teams for the arc (38%+), it makes a huge difference. A 3% difference in outside shooting is 65 points or so; that's nearly a game's worth of points. Only in 2019 did we make up for the difference in really bad outside shooting with stellar shooting inside the paint.

    This is one piece of a perfect storm of issues for this team: poor shooting - heck poor offense in general - combined with really subpar defense and lack of leadership.

  14. #74
    I tend to agree with others that this team is lacking in some key areas. The first is in the area of playmaking. When Moore is handling the ball a lot, there is a lack of penetration. Trying to understand who on the team is a playmaker leaves me scratching my head. Goldwire is a fine defender but lacks playmaking and scoring skills. Both Roach and Steward have excellent athleticism and decent handles but they don't seem to play with control. Wild attempts to score and get the balls inside. I think they both need PT to have the game slow down for them. That leaves Jalen, who must have been reading his press clippings as he lacked any game this afternoon

    As far as scoring, Hurt did all that can be expected. He needs others to set him up and I don't think we had those guys this afternoon. In addition, he wound up having to play inside and compete for blocks and rebounds, which put him into foul trouble. Even though I thought his 5th foul was ticky-tack, the basic problem is we have to use him in that way and Jalen gave little help inside today

    Our 3 point shooting except for Hurt was weak. Players like Baker and Steward should do better but appear to lose form when given open shots.

    I think it is what it is. We will get better with time, but so will our opponents. Lets hope Steward and Roach grow into quality guard this years and stay for 2022. Brakefield also can grow as he has good qualities. There is probably room for a 6'9" scorer in the NBA so I don't expect Hurt to return next season and Jalen will be drafted based on potential. Maybe Williams will make the sophomore jump and we will draft well. This appears to be a down year where the tournament is unlikely, so the hope is we can develop some of our players with PT.

  15. #75
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Chicago
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Didn’t need to scroll far to find the correct take here. This team is suffering from the strange pandemic season disproportionately.

    To those who think the sky is falling: yes, we wouldn’t make the tourney if it was played today. But there is a ton of season to go, and this performance beats the average ACC team. And we should get better. Lots of time for our luck to shift.

    Oh, and btw, Kansas also just lost its third straight. The biggest difference between us and them, a Top 25 team? They have more wins because of a full non con schedule. If this team is 8-5 we’re still disappointed, but not running around like chickens with our heads cut off. That must always be remembered.
    I agree completely that an 8-5 Duke would feel a lot better than a 5-5 Duke. Is there any chance of us filling in our schedule with another game or 2 with a local nonconference game(s)?
    Windy City Devil

  16. #76
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles

    No Runs

    Quote Originally Posted by DukeDevilDeb View Post

    But two other issues are critical. The number and timing of turnovers is staggering. Every time we had a chance to take the lead or when we had the lead with a chance to increase it, someone turned the ball over: Johnson (6), Hurt (3), Goldwire, Moore Steward and Roach (2+ each). Fifteen overall if the box score is right. This killed us, killed our momentum, took the wind out of our lungs... bad.
    You're right about the turnovers, and one of many important byproducts of turnovers is the inability to create and sustain a run. Does anyone remember the last time we had, say, a 10-0 run? I don't.

    I looked and (unless I missed something) today we had two runs at different points of 6-0. Against Pitt we had one 8-0 run in the early going. Against Va Tech we had one 6-0 run. That's it. I couldn't look back any further. But the ability to go on real runs is so important in basketball. Of course the effect on the scoreboard, but also the emotional impact, the charge the guys get when they go on a roll becomes infectious. Without runs, it just becomes a grind. More mentally exhausting, and more taxing on a young team.

    And because of our turnovers, and other issues, we just can't sustain any kind of positive play for more than a couple of possessions. Probably related to immaturity, focus, etc. as has been touched on in other posts. But man oh man do we need to just dial in and find ways to go on a frickin 14-0 run at some point against somebody!

  17. #77
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Anyone else see the Coach K interview after the game? He got kinda testy with the kid when the kid asked what the next step is after the loss today. He asked the kid what his major is at Duke and the kid said Econ and he said suppose you just had the toughest Econ test in the world and you just walked out and someone asked you what’s your next step? I think Coach K wanted the analysis to be on the game today vs Louisville but seemed like the kid was genuinely wanting to know how Duke will approach the next step going forward.

  18. #78
    one other thought about the game. Louisville plays a kind of pack line defense. When done well, it discourages penetration while still attempting to pressure the perimeter man with the ball. We weren't good at penetrating that defense nor was it easy to pass the ball inside. The best hope was to beat it down the floor or move the ball quickly around the perimeter and then taking quick shots and making them. Our 3 point shooting doesn't support that approach.

  19. #79
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Santa Clara, CA
    5 thoughts...

    1. Losing sucks. Duke played "better" more consistently in this game than others. They never got down double digits, and they fought back to keep this one a 2 possession game the entire game. They had a solid chance at the end to pull this one out. So I suppose this is an improvement. And being 3-3 in conference still is not a death sentence. There's still a good chance Duke can make the tourney, if they keep improving (I'm slightly optimistic about the "if" here based on the notion that the more this team plays together, the better they can become). But the record is what the record is, a loss is a loss, and losing sucks.
    2. Not sure why Duke didn't go back to a zone when Hurt got his fourth foul. Chris Mack called play after play to get Hurt to foul out, and he finally did. I wondered aloud how much Duke could score when he went out. The answer was one bucket for the last 1:50 in a one-point game. I think keeping Hurt on the floor has to be priority #1 in a close game. He's really the only true, consistent weapon Duke has.
    3. Johnson needs to slow down and let the game open for him or come to him. He's best when he plays fluidly. He's not at his best when he rushes.
    4. That last 3 by Steward looked good - I was jumping out of my seat. But nope, and the game was done. I like that he took the shot, though.
    5. On the plus side, Roach had less turnovers than in recent games. No crazy suicide drives to the bucket. On the minus side, zero points on 3 shots, with only 2 assists in 26 minutes. The staff must be talking to him about making his teammates better, but he was a non-factor this game. Duke's 7 total assists is just sad.

    9F
    I will never talk about That Game. GTHC.

  20. #80
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Maryland
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    Not to disagree with your agreeing with me but non-top 100 high school players just don't play at Duke at all. If we had a point guard anything like a Tyus or Tre Jones, or Frank Jackson, or even Trevon Duvall or Derryck Thornton of recent vintage -- not to mention the older guys like Hurley, J-Will, Duhon, Wojo, etc. -- Goldwire would be playing more like 5 minutes a game. If that. He's a great story and he's worked so hard to get to this point, and by all accounts is a great kid, and he does do a good job with on-ball defense, but guys with his skill level almost never see this kind of floor time at Duke. Far from our only problem, but it is one of them.
    Not to pick on this post, but I don’t think Goldwire getting minutes is really the problem. And it is certainly not true that he would only get 5 minutes if we had a great point guard like “Tre Jones.” In fact, we had Tre Jones last year and Goldwire played about 24 minutes a game. Coach K has shown that he will always give minutes to tough defense-minded players. Matt Jones, Tyler Thornton, Sean Dockery, come to mind. They may have come to Duke with higher rankings than Goldwire, but none of them showed much more offensive skill, yet all were part of the rotation due to their defensive skill.

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