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  1. #101
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    That shouldn't be a surprise - this year's class isn't in the same ballpark as the classes of 2016, 2017 or 2018. Those years we had multiple top-10 players plus additional top-20's. Last year we had just Carey as a surefire OAD and maybe Hurt was close but we were fortunate that Stanley overperformed and getting Tre back was like landing a top-5 freshman.

    This year our freshmen class is ranked by the RSCI:
    (11) Johnson
    (20) Roach
    (24) Steward
    (25) Williams
    (33) Brakefield
    (49) Coleman

    I don't know what everyone else was expecting, but I didn't consider anyone except Johnson to be a "one year wonder." I think there's a huge dropoff outside of the top 6 or 8 guys, though I did think that Johnson belonged in that elite group. Players ranked in the 20's don't typically contribute right off the bat, and when you start two or three of them together it compounds the issue. I was hoping that having Hurt and Moore back as experienced sophomores would offset having less talented freshmen, but that hasn't panned out because Moore has struggled big time and neither has emerged as a leader.

    For those who have long been clamoring to recruit a single OAD along with multiple lower-ranked players, the past two years haven't proven this to be a winning strategy. Perhaps you could say that it takes time to refill the pipeline, but Baker's lack of development would be evidence to the contrary. I do think we're setting ourselves up quite nicely to have a balanced team next season that could be elite, followed by a major rebuilding team the following season. But I'll wait to see how that plays out.
    I guess it is what you define as a winning strategy. I thought last years team won quite a bit and were poised to have a nice run in the NCAA tourney. Most would have expected for Stanley to be on this year's team out of last year's freshman class. He certainly wasn't recruited as a sure fire OAD. This year's team also hasn't had the luxury of summer or the early season menu of OOC games. Johnson missed 4 of the games they did play. Take Carey out of 4 of last year's first 5 conference games.
    Having experience has worked pretty well for a lot of teams nationally the last 5-6 years, including our 2015 NC's. You do need to develop that 2nd tier recruit. Check out this years top 10 and see how many teams are dominated by OAD's. Or the last 4 national champions.

  2. #102
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    For those who have long been clamoring to recruit a single OAD along with multiple lower-ranked players, the past two years haven't proven this to be a winning strategy. Perhaps you could say that it takes time to refill the pipeline, but Baker's lack of development would be evidence to the contrary. I do think we're setting ourselves up quite nicely to have a balanced team next season that could be elite, followed by a major rebuilding team the following season. But I'll wait to see how that plays out.
    Depends on your perspective - I actually consider this equally to be an example of the downside of going all-in on OADs. If you ever slip up in recruiting, or the incoming classes arenít as good, etc you can have a relatively extreme down hear. And if you have multiple years where youíre not getting top 10 guys, it can take years to build up that core of non-OADs to be elite.

  3. #103
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieTiger View Post
    Depends on your perspective - I actually consider this equally to be an example of the downside of going all-in on OADs. If you ever slip up in recruiting, or the incoming classes arenít as good, etc you can have a relatively extreme down [year]. And if you have multiple years where youíre not getting top 10 guys, it can take years to build up that core of non-OADs to be elite.
    But if your plan is to recruit a single OAD surrounded by a bunch of lower-ranked players, and you don't get that OAD, then you're up the creek. At least if you're pursuing lots of guys each year then you can handle missing out on one and in many cases bring in someone else in that same class.

  4. #104
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    But if your plan is to recruit a single OAD surrounded by a bunch of lower-ranked players, and you don't get that OAD, then you're up the creek. At least if you're pursuing lots of guys each year then you can handle missing out on one and in many cases bring in someone else in that same class.
    On top of that, the other guys aren't guaranteed to stay anyway. Take 2015 and 2016 for example. We recruited one sure-fire one and done (Okafor) and a couple of multi-year guys (Jones, Winslow, Allen) in 2015. But we won the title (no complaints), and as such Jones and Winslow went pro. In 2016, we brought in one one and done (Ingram) and a few multi-year guys (Thornton, Kennard, Jeter). But Thornton transferred after the season, Jeter midway through the next season, and Kennard (thought to be a 3-4 year guy) left after 2.

    Both of those seasons fit the "single one-and-done and a bunch of longer-term guys" concept in theory. And neither worked out that way. We were shorthanded in 2016, and again in 2017 (missing a PG again).

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