Originally Posted by
kako
You could be right. But also it could be COVID-related. Less practices, less games, no early tourney, etc. UK is also freshman heavy. The better teams have more upperclassmen this year.
Or a factor could also be the significant upperclassmen left this year are not at the level as previous years. Hurt is doing well, and hopefully Moore is getting better. But compare that to a few previous years after freshmen left:
2015-2016 - Allen, MP3, Jefferson, Matt Jones
2016-2017 - Allen, Matt Jones, Jefferson
2017-2018 - Allen, White, Bolden, DeLaurier
2018-2019 - O'Connell, White, Bolden, Goldwire, DeLaurier
2019-2020 - Tre Jones, O'Connell, White, Goldwire, DeLaurier, Baker
2020-2021 - Goldwire, Baker, Hurt, Moore
Of these classes, sorry to say but objectively I'd have to rank this year's upperclass near the bottom of this list. Perhaps 18'-'19 was also down there, but that year Duke had Zion, Barrett, Reddish and Tre Jones, so...
I personally can't place the root cause on any one area - COVID, the upperclassmen, the freshmen... I still think Johnson this year is the real deal. If he and Hurt can be weapons with a reliable third option scorer (Steward? Moore?), then Duke can right the ship and make it into the tourney. The more Duke plays, the more they could start to jell, particularly with Johnson healthy again, not to mention Tape.
We who follow Duke aren't used to this situation at all, but power conference at-large teams that make it in as 10-11 seeds can tend to beat the lower teams in conference and sneak a few marque victories against the upper teams. Duke isn't dead yet, especially if they can start to click in time to get a few key wins - they have their chances against Ville, UVA, Clemson, FSU and GaTech still ahead of them... not even mentioning Carolina (their games against UNC will draw a lot of viewers - so if Duke looks good beating them, it could make an impression on the committee). Sure, it's wishful thinking right now to believe they will sweep all these games. But keep beating the teams lower than them, win a few against the upper teams, stay above .500 in conference, and they will have a shot. And remember, fair or not - money talks. CBS *wants* Duke in the tournament. If Duke is close, hard to believe they will be shut out.
9F