How would we feel about this team if we were 8-3, not 5-3?

[scottdude8]

In today's ACC roundup on the front page, I found this segment very interesting (emphasis added):

We’re all going to have to accept that Covid-19 has made this a very strange season and deeply unpredictable.

So while Virginia just killed Clemson the other night, it did so after Clemson had to take a Covid pause. Syracuse has had some major problems. NC State has too. Duke hasn’t had any cases yet, other than Coach K being exposed to the virus and going into quarantine, but Duke decided to cancel three non-conference games in response to the pandemic and to allow its players to spend time with family over the holidays.

Duke is now 5-3 instead of a likely 8-3 as a result.

Spurred by that, here's my question to the board: how would we all be feeling right now if our record was 8-3 instead of 5-3? Assume nothing about how those games would've helped the team improve, just add those three wins to our resume.

My thoughts: if you add 3 more non-conference wins to our tally, even if they're "quadrant 3" caliber wins, this likely feels much more like a "regular" Duke team than one that is historically at risk. We've had plenty of seasons where we've lost two challenging non-conference games but beat who we were supposed to, and no matter the competition a 3-1 ACC start is always worth something. I'd posit that we'd still be in the Top 25, deservedly or not, if we simply had played the same number of "cupcake" games as many of our bretheren.

Discuss!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

In today's ACC roundup on the front page, I found this segment very interesting (emphasis added):


Spurred by that, here's my question to the board: how would we all be feeling right now if our record was 8-3 instead of 5-3? Assume nothing about how those games would've helped the team improve, just add those three wins to our resume.

My thoughts: if you add 3 more non-conference wins to our tally, even if they're "quadrant 3" caliber wins, this likely feels much more like a "regular" Duke team than one that is historically at risk. We've had plenty of seasons where we've lost two challenging non-conference games but beat who we were supposed to, and no matter the competition a 3-1 ACC start is always worth something. I'd posit that we'd still be in the Top 25, deservedly or not, if we simply had played the same number of "cupcake" games as many of our bretheren.

Discuss!

If "ifs" were "fifths" we'd all be drunk.

[JasonEvans]

It sorta depends on how those non-con games had gone. We only beat Coppin St. by 10 and we had less than a 10 point lead for much of the second half. We beat Bellarmine by 22, but it is not like we were utterly dominant.

Gardner Webb and Elon aren't great, but at 207 and 225, they are higher ranked in KenPom than either CSt (329) or Bellarmine (230). Charleston Southern is #341 in KenPom... whew.

Anyway, I can't say how we would feel about the team as we don't know how those games would have turned out. Even if we assume wins, the quality of those wins would have at least somewhat impacted our view of the team.

[Natty_B]

It sorta depends on how those non-con games had gone. We only beat Coppin St. by 10 and we had less than a 10 point lead for much of the second half. We beat Bellarmine by 22, but it is not like we were utterly dominant.

Gardner Webb and Elon aren't great, but at 207 and 225, they are higher ranked in KenPom than either CSt (329) or Bellarmine (230). Charleston Southern is #341 in KenPom... whew.

Anyway, I can't say how we would feel about the team as we don't know how those games would have turned out. Even if we assume wins, the quality of those wins would have at least somewhat impacted our view of the team.

I appreciate the thought experiment but I don't think it would make much of a difference - the team would still have no quality wins. Another thought is what if this team played its original schedule - it might likely have a couple more losses from the Battle 4 Atlantis (of course then there is the counter thought that maybe the team would have had more time together this summer - it's the multiverse).

A more salient early season point for me is that MSU and Illinois have turned out to be...not that great yet they won at Duke with ease.

[bundabergdevil]

Is this a trick question? Better!

[Troublemaker]

I appreciate the thought experiment but I don't think it would make much of a difference - the team would still have no quality wins.

Right. I think DBR starts to feel better about Duke once we start getting Ws against good teams.

[JasonEvans]

Right. I think DBR starts to feel better about Duke once we start getting Ws against good teams.

And while I don't know how one would define "good teams," I think Pitt qualifies. They are a tourney bubble team with a pretty decent record so far. Still, this is the kind of game a top 25 team should win. If Duke is truly a top 25 team, we need to start showing it.

-Jason "I'd love for our outside shots to fall... haven't seen much of that at all this season" Evans

[SouthernDukie]

And while I don't know how one would define "good teams," I think Pitt qualifies. They are a tourney bubble team with a pretty decent record so far. Still, this is the kind of game a top 25 team should win. If Duke is truly a top 25 team, we need to start showing it.

Exactly. If Duke can win tonight at Pitt, I'll personally feel better about the team finishing 2 to 3 games above .500 in the ACC. Right now I'm only thinking of them as a .500 team in Conference.

[Kedsy]

Understandable take, but I’d say mine is the opposite to be honest. To me, Duke’s struggles can be at least partly attributed to a lack of tune-up games. Granted, it’s amplified by the fact that they’re playing teams who, in some cases, have played 5 or 6 more games. But I’m guessing that the lack of those tune up games is causing Duke to struggle to work out some things that otherwise would have been addressed.

It's possible Duke's "struggles" are due to a lack of pre-season work (summer, practices, exhibition games). But when it comes to missing regular season games, I don't buy it. For example, for the first three games, every year we have the same number of "tune up games." This season, however, we've performed decidedly worse in those games than in recent previous years.

Below is a table of the last 10 seasons. The first column is our "unadjusted" average margin of victory in our first three games (adjusted only for home/away/neutral). The second column is our average "adjusted" margin, using Pomeroy's end-of-season ratings (latest ratings in the case of 2021). For both unadjusted and adjusted, I assumed a 4.5 point home advantage in previous seasons and a 1.5 home advantage this season (0 point advantage at neutral sites). Each sample includes two home games against "lesser" non-conference competition, and one game on a neutral court* against a "top shelf" opponent.

* (except this season against Michigan State, which was at home)

Year	unadj	adj 
2015	42.00	37.58
2019	30.33	35.38
2020	28.00	35.27
2017	25.00	27.93
2018	21.00	27.52
2012	14.67	25.07
2014	17.67	23.13
2013	14.67	18.73
2016	14.00	14.37
2021	7.17	5.49

As you can see, this year's team was significantly worse than any of the previous year's teams (in fact, it's significantly worse than any Duke team since Pomeroy's ratings were invented). As I said, some of that difference may be due to a lack of pre-season work, but I expect a lot (most?) of the difference is due to this year's model simply not being as good a team as previous Duke teams.

[UrinalCake]

I don't think it would change my opinion very much. I guess it would depend some on how we played during those three wins, but the fact that we've been beaten badly by all three of our legitimate opponents is what has me down and that wouldn't be any different in your scenario. I disagree with your definition of a "typical" season, I feel like we usually start off with one or at most two losses before January.

[CDu]

It's possible Duke's "struggles" are due to a lack of pre-season work (summer, practices, exhibition games). But when it comes to missing regular season games, I don't buy it. For example, for the first three games, every year we have the same number of "tune up games." This season, however, we've performed decidedly worse in those games than in recent previous years.

Below is a table of the last 10 seasons. The first column is our "unadjusted" average margin of victory in our first three games (adjusted only for home/away/neutral). The second column is our average "adjusted" margin, using Pomeroy's end-of-season ratings (latest ratings in the case of 2021). For both unadjusted and adjusted, I assumed a 4.5 point home advantage in previous seasons and a 1.5 home advantage this season (0 point advantage at neutral sites). Each sample includes two home games against "lesser" non-conference competition, and one game on a neutral court* against a "top shelf" opponent.

* (except this season against Michigan State, which was at home)

Year	unadj	adj 
2015	42.00	37.58
2019	30.33	35.38
2020	28.00	35.27
2017	25.00	27.93
2018	21.00	27.52
2012	14.67	25.07
2014	17.67	23.13
2013	14.67	18.73
2016	14.00	14.37
2021	7.17	5.49

As you can see, this year's team was significantly worse than any of the previous year's teams (in fact, it's significantly worse than any Duke team since Pomeroy's ratings were invented). As I said, some of that difference may be due to a lack of pre-season work, but I expect a lot (most?) of the difference is due to this year's model simply not being as good a team as previous Duke teams.

Minor quibble, but don't we also usually have some more matchups against teams that don't even qualify for the schedule? Like a couple of games against D-2 or D-3 competition? We didn't even have those this year.

To be clear, I definitely think this team is not as good as many of our previous teams. But I think you might also be underselling the degree to which the pandemic has affected the team's development to this point.

As to the original question, I'd feel no better about the team if they were 8-3 with 3 more wins over patsies than I am with 5-3 start. As others have noted, we have no real quality wins and we have looked really bad in two of the 3 losses, both of which were at home. Once/if we start beating decent teams, then I'll feel better about the team. Until/unless that happens, I'd feel the same regardless of those 3 somewhat meaningless wins that we are missing.

[DukieInBrasil]

Minor quibble, but don't we also usually have some more matchups against teams that don't even qualify for the schedule? Like a couple of games against D-2 or D-3 competition? We didn't even have those this year.

To be clear, I definitely think this team is not as good as many of our previous teams. But I think you might also be underselling the degree to which the pandemic has affected the team's development to this point.

As to the original question, I'd feel no better about the team if they were 8-3 with 3 more wins over patsies than I am with 5-3 start. As others have noted, we have no real quality wins and we have looked really bad in two of the 3 losses, both of which were at home. Once/if we start beating decent teams, then I'll feel better about the team. Until/unless that happens, I'd feel the same regardless of those 3 somewhat meaningless wins that we are missing.

This isn't solely directed at CDu, but CDu has touched on points made by others, and I know this defies the rules laid out by the OP, but: i also believe those preseason games would have helped a lot in terms of team identity and for the coaches to figure out what is/isn't working. With those games, it is possible that K would have abandoned the 5-out offense sooner, which may have either altered the outcome or at least reduced the margin of our 3 losses. I'm not trying to say that those 2 exhibition games would have put this team on the path to being 8-0 right now (or 11-0 per the OP's design), but extra games to figure out how this team actually functions as a unit could only help its performance, which would probably change how we as fans perceive the team.

[Kedsy]

Minor quibble, but don't we also usually have some more matchups against teams that don't even qualify for the schedule? Like a couple of games against D-2 or D-3 competition? We didn't even have those this year.

To be clear, I definitely think this team is not as good as many of our previous teams. But I think you might also be underselling the degree to which the pandemic has affected the team's development to this point.

Yeah, I mentioned the exhibitions in my earlier post and lumped them in as part of the pre-season, and I agreed it's possible the lack of a robust pre-season hindered the team's early development. I doubt an additional three cupcake games in December would have fixed that possible issue significantly.

Put another way, the other teams in my table were able to play at a much higher level than this year's team after two exhibitions. This team has already played eight games and I think the time for excuses might be over.

[Bob Green]

Spurred by that, here's my question to the board: how would we all be feeling right now if our record was 8-3 instead of 5-3

My takeaway from the pandemic is a lot of these early season patsy games should be permanently removed from the schedule. The team is measured by wins and losses against quality teams so why play meaningless games.

My take probably will not be popular but the season is too long and the 20-21 season is demonstrating how to reduce games played.

[Wander]

My takeaway from the pandemic is a lot of these early season patsy games should be permanently removed from the schedule. The team is measured by wins and losses against quality teams so why play meaningless games.

My take probably will not be popular but the season is too long and the 20-21 season is demonstrating how to reduce games played.

I don't think that's an unreasonable take. My preference would be for those sorts of games to be more evenly distributed throughout the season. It would help give us a better idea of conference strength and would make the early season more meaningful.

[DukieTiger]

My takeaway from the pandemic is a lot of these early season patsy games should be permanently removed from the schedule. The team is measured by wins and losses against quality teams so why play meaningless games.

My take probably will not be popular but the season is too long and the 20-21 season is demonstrating how to reduce games played.

Understandable take, but I’d say mine is the opposite to be honest. To me, Duke’s struggles can be at least partly attributed to a lack of tune-up games. Granted, it’s amplified by the fact that they’re playing teams who, in some cases, have played 5 or 6 more games. But I’m guessing that the lack of those tune up games is causing Duke to struggle to work out some things that otherwise would have been addressed.

[DukieTiger]

Right. I think DBR starts to feel better about Duke once we start getting Ws against good teams.

And while I don't know how one would define "good teams," I think Pitt qualifies. They are a tourney bubble team with a pretty decent record so far. Still, this is the kind of game a top 25 team should win. If Duke is truly a top 25 team, we need to start showing it.

-Jason "I'd love for our outside shots to fall... haven't seen much of that at all this season" Evans

I’d guess Trouble was referring to the fact that Duke has 0 Quad 1 or 2 wins in the year, and somewhere between 0 and 2 top-100 wins, depending on the metric.

[gofurman]

Understandable take, but I’d say mine is the opposite to be honest. To me, Duke’s struggles can be at least partly attributed to a lack of tune-up games. Granted, it’s amplified by the fact that they’re playing teams who, in some cases, have played 5 or 6 more games. But I’m guessing that the lack of those tune up games is causing Duke to struggle to work out some things that otherwise would have been addressed.

THIS. Especially younger / OAD-laden teams (ours at least qualifies as younger w 3 FR, a SOPH Hurt and a SNR Goldwire probably starting tonight) are really hurt by the lack of games - and truly need those easy games to learn cohesion and ACC-level play. Look at us and UK for proof. I think if we had one more soph or junior "good" player (average to above average ACC player) we would be in an entirely different place right now - aSophomore Luke Kinnard or whomever...

And now we have to address the learning curve vs ACC teams instead of Charleston Southern... This year has proven to me the value of those games

[dukelifer]

In today's ACC roundup on the front page, I found this segment very interesting (emphasis added):


Spurred by that, here's my question to the board: how would we all be feeling right now if our record was 8-3 instead of 5-3? Assume nothing about how those games would've helped the team improve, just add those three wins to our resume.

My thoughts: if you add 3 more non-conference wins to our tally, even if they're "quadrant 3" caliber wins, this likely feels much more like a "regular" Duke team than one that is historically at risk. We've had plenty of seasons where we've lost two challenging non-conference games but beat who we were supposed to, and no matter the competition a 3-1 ACC start is always worth something. I'd posit that we'd still be in the Top 25, deservedly or not, if we simply had played the same number of "cupcake" games as many of our bretheren.

Discuss!

Hard to know. Those early games may have helped the team get better and they may be playing better. But assuming nothing changed- I would still feel this team has many weaknesses but has potential. So I think I would feel the same- which is - I am not enjoying college basketball this year.

[kshepinthehouse]

I’d feel the same as they aren’t passing the eye test for me.