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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    With the starts being such an issue, I would love to see K come out and start the game in the full or 3/4 court pressure that's been such a positive down the stretch in games, especially with the three guard lineup.
    I have mixed feelings about this. I agree that the full court pressure is our best defense, generating turnovers and forcing our opponents to start their offense with less time on the shot clock. But it's also a high risk/high reward style that we typically resort to only after we are down by 15 out of necessity. Yes we may generate a turnover, but we also may give up a wide open three or a layup. So I'm not sure if starting the game with such an aggressive defense is the right play, especially when our players are already sort of not mentally into it out of the gate.

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    . Luckily, Duke's record against the spread has absolutely zero impact on me.
    That’s odd. Because we definitely cover more in our more successful years. I would have thought you wished Duke a successful year... To wit, This is our first time not ranked in the top 25 poll in 4 years and we are 1-7 Against the spread. That’s not a random correlation

    If you want Duke to do well you would want us covering - to an extent - as that means we are blowing teams out. Though right now I would just take any win in these next few games...

    I am not convinced that Duke makes the NCAA tournament. I look at our schedule and we better go 8-6 in remaining ACC games to even have a shot I think

  3. #23
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, Va

    Duke opens a 4 point fave per Vegasinsider

    https://www.vegasinsider.com/college.../date/01-19-21

    and is already down to a 2.5 fave. Lots of money flowing in on Pitt. With both our big men back, I'm not sure how I'd wager, I'd prolly just pass.

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by gofurman View Post
    That’s odd. Because we definitely cover more in our more successful years. I would have thought you wished Duke a successful year... To wit, This is our first time not ranked in the top 25 poll in 4 years and we are 1-7 Against the spread. That’s not a random correlation

    If you want Duke to do well you would want us covering - to an extent - as that means we are blowing teams out. Though right now I would just take any win in these next few games...

    I am not convinced that Duke makes the NCAA tournament. I look at our schedule and we better go 8-6 in remaining ACC games to even have a shot I think
    Yes, but no.

    We could go undefeated IRL and lose 75% of our games against the spread. In that scenario we would be a one seed.
       

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    ^ I think furman meant we needed to go 8-6 in terms of our actual record, not against the spread.

    I agree that performance against the spread doesn't mean anything on paper, but it does indicate that the preseason expectations around this team were vastly elevated. To put it more bluntly, we've been overrated. And I do think the covid disruptions have hurt our young team more than others, but if you take away our preconceived notions and take Duke off the jersey, I think what you'd have is a middle of the pack ACC team with no quality wins and three losses against good-but-not-great opponents. There's still time to improve and to build a resume but it's not an automatic guarantee that we make the tourney and compete for a title.

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    ^ I think furman meant we needed to go 8-6 in terms of our actual record, not against the spread.

    I agree that performance against the spread doesn't mean anything on paper, but it does indicate that the preseason expectations around this team were vastly elevated. To put it more bluntly, we've been overrated. And I do think the covid disruptions have hurt our young team more than others, but if you take away our preconceived notions and take Duke off the jersey, I think what you'd have is a middle of the pack ACC team with no quality wins and three losses against good-but-not-great opponents. There's still time to improve and to build a resume but it's not an automatic guarantee that we make the tourney and compete for a title.
    Great to have some Duke basketball discussion, even if it's not the positive discussion we've had in the past. I agree with everything you posted and I have to say, we're not a good team at this point. But as you mentioned, Covid has a lot to do with our disappointing season. We have some good players but those good players have not come together to make us a good team. Yet. I hope the team can turn it around quickly because the shortened season does not give the team much time to create a good resume for the NCAAT. This game against Pitt is going to be very important. Matter of fact, every game is going to be important. Maybe our best bet to make the tournament will be to win the ACCT.

    GoDuke!

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Charlottesville, VA
    If there has to be a 'wait til next year' season, this surely is the ideal one for that. Personally, I see this one as sort of a place-holder season. Whichever team does end up winning a national championship (if things ever get to that point) will in my mind forever have an asterisk by it, not a "real" championship (regardless of what the players involved will legitimately think, I know...). Without students in the stands, schedules shifting daily, this just seems like a background entertainment sort of thing for me this winter. Its like, "Oh, there's actually a Duke game tonight, and one I can even get on tv and watch, too. Great." But it's not critical to my existence this year. Next year... another matter

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Charlottesville, VA
    P.S. I've spent FAR more time this fall and winter reading the Off-Topic side with Pandemic and Presidential sections, which I've found fascinating and hugely informative. Bassetball? I've hardly watched any of it this season in the empty gyms.

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    ^ I think furman meant we needed to go 8-6 in terms of our actual record, not against the spread.

    I agree that performance against the spread doesn't mean anything on paper, but it does indicate that the preseason expectations around this team were vastly elevated. To put it more bluntly, we've been overrated. And I do think the covid disruptions have hurt our young team more than others, but if you take away our preconceived notions and take Duke off the jersey, I think what you'd have is a middle of the pack ACC team with no quality wins and three losses against good-but-not-great opponents. There's still time to improve and to build a resume but it's not an automatic guarantee that we make the tourney and compete for a title.
    That is what I meant - my apologies for not being clear on that. I hope we can go 8-6 (win, not ATS) in the remaining 14 games. I would take that at this point. Right now, I am just hoping we make the tourney and continue to improve. Duke, UNC and UK (esp UK!) are all in great danger of not making the tourney. I believe our current NET ranking is 92 with no Q1 wins. That isn't going to get us in - a win in either of these next two games would be a Q1 win and would really help

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by Faustus View Post
    If there has to be a 'wait til next year' season, this surely is the ideal one for that. Personally, I see this one as sort of a place-holder season. Whichever team does end up winning a national championship (if things ever get to that point) will in my mind forever have an asterisk by it, not a "real" championship (regardless of what the players involved will legitimately think, I know...). Without students in the stands, schedules shifting daily, this just seems like a background entertainment sort of thing for me this winter. Its like, "Oh, there's actually a Duke game tonight, and one I can even get on tv and watch, too. Great." But it's not critical to my existence this year. Next year... another matter
    yes, this year isn't so much a season as it is an obstacle course...not a bad year to have one of our non powerhouse teams, IMO.

    I'll be really ticked, though, if we can't cobble together a men's lacrosse season...

  11. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    ^ I think furman meant we needed to go 8-6 in terms of our actual record, not against the spread.

    I agree that performance against the spread doesn't mean anything on paper, but it does indicate that the preseason expectations around this team were vastly elevated. To put it more bluntly, we've been overrated. And I do think the covid disruptions have hurt our young team more than others, but if you take away our preconceived notions and take Duke off the jersey, I think what you'd have is a middle of the pack ACC team with no quality wins and three losses against good-but-not-great opponents. There's still time to improve and to build a resume but it's not an automatic guarantee that we make the tourney and compete for a title.
    That is what I meant - my apologies for not being clear on that. I hope we can go 8-6 (just win 8 games, not against the spread) in the remaining 14 games. I would take that at this point. Right now, I am just hoping we make the tourney and continue to improve. Duke is in grave danger of not making the tourney. I believe our current NET ranking is 92 with no Q1 wins. That isn't going to get us in - a win in either of these next two games would be a Q1 win and would really help. Blind resume without Duke on the jersey at this point I don't see any way we are in.. We need to get some strong wins and at least see some improvement. And I have seen improvement - esp from Roach and Steward who I think are the two keys to this team. You know what you have in Hurt but you have to have guard play and aggressive drives to the basket.. we are starting to see that. Next step is find someone at the 4 position to add a few points and provide strong defense - Johnson? Moore? Braekfield?

  12. #32
    Curious to see if K goes back to starting Tapé. It is easy to forget because of how long ago it was, but Tape started the last game he played. Would not be surprised if Tape is in that starting lineup tonight.
    Last edited by -jk; 01-19-2021 at 11:38 AM. Reason: If your keyboard doesn't have an easy é, add an apostrophe(') after Tape for DBR to autocorrect to Tapé

  13. #33
    The frontcourt mismatch in this one should be interesting. Capel is leaning heavily on his guards, Johson, Toney, Champgnaie, and the FR Horton. Champagnie and Toney each run about 200-210 lbs and are 6'6". Besides them, they rely on 6'8" SO F Karim Coulibaly as their primary post man. Even when Duke has a lineup of Hurt and Johnson or Hurt and Brakefield, the Blue Devils will have a significant size advantage in the post.

    Another thing to watch is the offensive rebounding. Duke is good on the offensive boards and Pitt has been, too. For Pitt, that could be related to their schedule. Their last two games were against Syracuse. When they played Miami and Louisville, Pitt was much less effective at getting the offensive boards. Duke is going to have to press its size advantage on the boards and continue to get contributions from Steward and Roach to keep the Panthers to one shot. They are not a good shooting team. Toney and Horton are the only two that you have to watch. Keep them off the offensive glass and things will be much easier.

  14. #34
    Duke has had a problem getting defensive stops this season. Especially in critical situations. Will we see K switch to a zone defense ?
       

  15. #35
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    St Augustine, FL
    Quote Originally Posted by Pghdukie View Post
    Duke has had a problem getting defensive stops this season. Especially in critical situations. Will we see K switch to a zone defense ?
    No. No.

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Faustus View Post
    If there has to be a 'wait til next year' season, this surely is the ideal one for that. Personally, I see this one as sort of a place-holder season. Whichever team does end up winning a national championship (if things ever get to that point) will in my mind forever have an asterisk by it, not a "real" championship (regardless of what the players involved will legitimately think, I know...).
    I agree with the first part of your statement - this season is hard to feel very invested in, and each game just feels like bonus entertainment that we get. But for me the second part does not hold true - I think whoever wins the title deserves it. They will have overcome all of these challenges and come out on top, so no asterisk is warranted. Now, if UNC wins it because they sneak in as an 11 seed and then six consecutive opponents all forfeit due to COVID, then that's another story But assuming the champion wins their games fair and square then they deserve it.

    I don't think we'll see any zone this season, not without a rim protector. We did it out of necessity in 2018 when we had Bagley and Carter, and have sprinkled it in some as a change of pace. But we don't have the personnel for it this year. Namely we don't have the big athletic wings.

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    I agree with the first part of your statement - this season is hard to feel very invested in, and each game just feels like bonus entertainment that we get. But for me the second part does not hold true - I think whoever wins the title deserves it. They will have overcome all of these challenges and come out on top, so no asterisk is warranted. Now, if UNC wins it because they sneak in as an 11 seed and then six consecutive opponents all forfeit due to COVID, then that's another story But assuming the champion wins their games fair and square then they deserve it.
    Agreed. Sort of like the NBA bubble. Was it a standard season? Clearly not. Was it even necessarily a fair season? Maybe not. Did the winner run a ridiculous gauntlet of challenges?

    Without question
       

  18. #38
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Mount Kisco, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Why? That's what these next few games are going to decide -- just what kind of team we are.
    Damn skippy.

    Quote Originally Posted by gofurman View Post
    Duke is in grave danger of not making the tourney. I believe our current NET ranking is 92 with no Q1 wins. That isn't going to get us in - a win in either of these next two games would be a Q1 win and would really help. Blind resume without Duke on the jersey at this point I don't see any way we are in.
    Yeah, that is truly where we sit headed into this contest. Unless we want to play "conference tournament auto-bid" roulette, we need to start building a real resume tonight.

    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    At one point in this still young season, it was our offense that was holding the team back. Lately it's been the defense that's not performed up to Duke standards. If Coach K goes 2 guards, Hurt, Wendell and Jalen it hurts the offense. One of DJ, Roach or Goldy will not start but that doesn't mean they won't get big minutes. It could mean the team starts off slow and once again get's down big. I like the 3 guard, Hurt and Jalen look.
    Quote Originally Posted by gofurman View Post
    Roach and Steward who I think are the two keys to this team. You know what you have in Hurt but you have to have guard play and aggressive drives to the basket.. we are starting to see that. Next step is find someone at the 4 position to add a few points and provide strong defense - Johnson? Moore? Brakefield?
    We are currently struggling at both ends. K often says that young teams let their offensive struggles impact their focus and effort on defense, that could be the case this year. We played a solid final 20 minutes against VTech, hopefully we can build on it. The 3 guards plus Hurt have been the key pieces to whatever we are right now. It's tempting to believe Jalen Johnson's potential and forecast that line-up as being our best one, especially with Wendell being so poor on offense and Brake being so inconsistent. Let's face it, we need all 3 of those guys to start playing well for us to kick this season into the next gear. If that core 6 can start all playing well, we're a tough small ball squad.

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueDevilStop View Post
    Curious to see if K goes back to starting Tape. It is easy to forget because of how long ago it was, but Tape started the last game he played. Would not be surprised if Tape is in that starting lineup tonight.
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    The frontcourt mismatch in this one should be interesting. Capel is leaning heavily on his guards, Johson, Toney, Champgnaie, and the FR Horton. Champagnie and Toney each run about 200-210 lbs and are 6'6". Besides them, they rely on 6'8" SO F Karim Coulibaly as their primary post man. Even when Duke has a lineup of Hurt and Johnson or Hurt and Brakefield, the Blue Devils will have a significant size advantage in the post.
    Since Pitt is also small ball, I don't see Tape playing much of a role at all (cue Tape 12-10 stat line).

    Here are the things I am looking for/hoping for:
    -Please, don't start slow and fall into a hole
    -Can we limit our turnovers, please.
    -Can we get to the line. I am curious as to the last time we had a team that got to the line this rarely?
    -Can we limit Pitt's second shots and get on the offensive glass ourselves?
    -Can we shoot better, which is a factor of getting better shots and knocking down a much better % of the wide open looks we occasionally generate?
    -Now that he's back, can Jalen Johnson be the X factor we desperately need him to be? If we've got the size advantage and he is such a good passer, let's play some hi/lo with he and Hurt.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pghdukie View Post
    Duke has had a problem getting defensive stops this season. Especially in critical situations. Will we see K switch to a zone defense ?
    I think that worked when we had a lot more length. I haven't seen us run one possession of it this year, probably because our guards are so small you could just throw it over them with ease. I feel like we are built for M2M this year.

    Quote Originally Posted by Faustus View Post
    If there has to be a 'wait til next year' season, this surely is the ideal one for that. Personally, I see this one as sort of a place-holder season. Whichever team does end up winning a national championship (if things ever get to that point) will in my mind forever have an asterisk by it, not a "real" championship (regardless of what the players involved will legitimately think, I know...). Without students in the stands, schedules shifting daily, this just seems like a background entertainment sort of thing for me this winter. Its like, "Oh, there's actually a Duke game tonight, and one I can even get on tv and watch, too. Great." But it's not critical to my existence this year. Next year... another matter
    I agree that there should be an asterisk, but, to me, it should indicate that this season was especially difficult and demanding. Whichever team is holding the trophy at the end of the year will have a place in history that I think is weighted much more toward relevance than irrelevance.

    I am counting on K having the "I can't beat my father/big brother" edge on Capel to give us an extra point or two. We need everything we can get. LET'S GO!!!!!!

  19. #39
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Lewisville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    I agree with the first part of your statement - this season is hard to feel very invested in, and each game just feels like bonus entertainment that we get. But for me the second part does not hold true - I think whoever wins the title deserves it. They will have overcome all of these challenges and come out on top, so no asterisk is warranted. Now, if UNC wins it because they sneak in as an 11 seed and then six consecutive opponents all forfeit due to COVID, then that's another story But assuming the champion wins their games fair and square then they deserve it.

    I don't think we'll see any zone this season, not without a rim protector. We did it out of necessity in 2018 when we had Bagley and Carter, and have sprinkled it in some as a change of pace. But we don't have the personnel for it this year. Namely we don't have the big athletic wings.
    You're probably right about no great use of zone defense. But wouldn't Jalen Johnson and Wendell Moore qualify as "big athletic wings"?

  20. #40
    Anyone know who ESPN will have announcing the game tonight ?
       

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