MBB: Duke79, Wake 68 Post-Game Thread

[dukelifer]

Hurt continues to be a very effective scorer and rebounder. He playing a bit like Danny Ferry. I really enjoy watching Steward- he is quick, dynamic and can score in many ways. He just needs more experience and muscle. Moore has to stop dribbling in traffic. He is just not good yet. The turnovers by the whole team is really a problem right now. Duke might have won by 20 today if those are reduced. I thought Goldwire was key today- hit some big shots and was disruptive on D. The team has many weaknesses but they are scrappy and play hard. I will take that. Not sure how they will do against good teams but every game is a growing experience. They were not able to play in 6 or more games to become a better team. They are a major work in progress.

[Kedsy]

So I went a little deeper into the box score to break down our defense in this game.

PACE: Wake's adjusted pace is 69.2 (tied for #190 in the nation, according to KP). Against us, the pace was even slower (64.9). Our adjusted pace for the season is also 69.2 (tied for #190), so the slower pace is just the way this game happened to go.

THREES: For the season before this game, Wake took 42.8% of their shots from three. Against us, they took 41.7% of their shots from three, essentially the same as usual. For the season before today, they made 34.5% from three, against us only 30.0%. Close (the difference of one missed shot), thanks to the fact that they missed their last eight three-point shots in the game.

LAYUPS: For the season before this game, Wake took 36.0% of their shots around the rim. Against us, they took 33.3% of their shots around the rim, around the same (one fewer layup than usual). For the season before today, they made 62.1% of their shots around the rim, against us only 50% (about two fewer than they would usually make), so our interior defense might have forced them into some uncomfortable close shots.

TWO-POINT SHOTS (but NOT layups): For the season before this game, Wake took 21.2% of their shots from two-point range but not around the rim. Against us, 25% of their shots were such shots (basically one more shot from there than usual). For the season before today, they made 51.8% of their shots (which is really good; we only make 36.5% of our two-point jumpers). Against us, they made 66.7% of their two-point jumpers (about two more than they normally would), which either means they had a fluky good day from there or we didn't challenge those shots sufficiently.

FREE THROWS: Wake Forest gets to the line a lot. For the season before this game, their free throw rate was 38.3%. Against us their free throw rate was 43.8%, about two-and-a-half more free throws than they usually get. They had been hitting 73.3% those FTs but against us they shot 85.7% from the line.

TURNOVERS: Wake is somewhat careless with the ball (#286 in the nation in turnover%). Against us, they turned the ball over on 23.1% of their possessions, about one turnover more than they usually would.


Looking at these numbers, it would seem we basically let Wake Forest run the offense they want to run (or at least the offense they usually run). We hindered them around the rim, but failed to hinder their midrange shots by the exact same amount. They scored 3 fewer points on threes than usual and turned the ball over once more than normal, but made up for that by hitting 4.5 more free throws than you'd expect. So it all essentially washes out. We neither hindered nor helped the #112 offense in the country do pretty much exactly what it's been doing on average all season.

[kako]

5 thoughts...

1. Hurt, Steward and JGold had great games today. Hurt made plays both inside and out. I liked the one stretch where he fought inside for the ball, kept at it and converted. It probably happened more than once.
2. Moore didn't have a good game on O, but nice work on the boards. He still needs to work on his handle.
3. Overall, Duke won this game on the boards. Wake just didn't seem to fight for the ball as much as they needed to, so Duke took advantage.
4. I was impressed by Wake's Whitt. Pretty impressive for a kid who was in high school 1 month ago. Sure, the TO # looks bad, but still impressive overall.
5. 3-0 in the ACC is nothing to sneeze at this year (especially this year). On to the next game.

Extra - I just switched over to YouTube TV. I watched the recording of the game. It told me the recording was 2:33:00 long, so I thought, "Dang, overtime???". As we know, the game finished in regulation. I'm cool with YouTube TV making sure the whole game was recorded, but it did make me wonder all though the 2nd half if Duke would cough up the lead.

9F

[uh_no]

5. 3-0 in the ACC is nothing to sneeze at this year (especially this year). On to the next game.

I'm not sure what exactly you mean here. We've beaten 3 weak teams, ACC or no. There's a reason KP dropped us out of the top 20 after today's game. We're playing mediocre basketball against mediocre teams. Now, that may be enough in the ACC this year, given the lack of teams that are factoring in to the national conversation, but I don't think relative success against such teams should be construed to mean that WE are necessarily an excellent team...because right now, we're not. We have a long way to go if we have aspirations of a deep run in march.

[4Gen]

I like Steward so much. I'm not talking about his game, which I like a lot too.

[UrinalCake]

Hurt reminds me so much of Kyle Singler in how he scores from all over. He's not elite at any one particular thing, nor is he overly big or athletic, but he's a matchup nightmare in how he can score from inside, outside, and everywhere in between. The turnaround fadeaway is his go-to move but he's learning how to read his defender and take what is given to him.

Roach and Steward are playing like freshmen - we see glimpses of outstanding play but both are inconsistent and make freshmen mistakes. Still, you see the potential. Brakefield has come back down to earth after his amazing start but still makes hustle plays and is always involved on both sides of the ball.

I thought our defensive system overall is working well. We are able to pressure the ball, generate turnovers and disrupt our opponent's offense, while not overpursuing leading to wide open looks. The team is coming together, they just all need more reps. They've still only played seven games together. In a normal season that would have happened by around Thanksgiving, and we certainly wouldn't expect the team to be a finished product by then. I hate to say it but I think the cancellation at FSU may have been a blessing in disguise. I don't think the team was ready to face a ranked team on the road immediately after the break, we needed these two games against weak opponents to find our rhythm again.

[kako]

I'm not sure what exactly you mean here. We've beaten 3 weak teams, ACC or no. There's a reason KP dropped us out of the top 20 after today's game. We're playing mediocre basketball against mediocre teams. Now, that may be enough in the ACC this year, given the lack of teams that are factoring in to the national conversation, but I don't think relative success against such teams should be construed to mean that WE are necessarily an excellent team...because right now, we're not. We have a long way to go if we have aspirations of a deep run in march.

Who said Duke is an excellent team? I didn't. I stated that 3-0 is 3-0, and that's a good record no matter how you look at it. Are there things to work on? Yes. And even if we beat VaTech, Duke isn't an excellent team. But I'd rather be 3-0 than not. Would you?

9F

[uh_no]

Who said Duke is an excellent team? I didn't. I stated that 3-0 is 3-0, and that's a good record no matter how you look at it. Are there things to work on? Yes. And even if we beat VaTech, Duke isn't an excellent team. But I'd rather be 3-0 than not. Would you?

9F

I'm happy we're 3-0, but I'd rather be 2-1 and be playing better basketball overall. It turns out how you play is a far better predictor of your team's future success than your record.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

Hurt reminds me so much of Kyle Singler in how he scores from all over. He's not elite at any one particular thing, nor is he overly big or athletic, but he's a matchup nightmare in how he can score from inside, outside, and everywhere in between. The turnaround fadeaway is his go-to move but he's learning how to read his defender and take what is given to him.

I don't see it. Singler was so much better. He was relentless and played with an intensity that Hurt doesn't approach. Singler was one of the best Duke players whose jersey/number hasn't been retired. I hope Hurt can improve to that level, but it's doubtful he can do that while he's playing for Duke.

[sagegrouse]

I don't see it. Singler was so much better. He was relentless and played with an intensity that Hurt doesn't approach. Singler was one of the best Duke players whose jersey/number hasn't been retired. I hope Hurt can improve to that level, but it's doubtful he can do that while he's playing for Duke.

Singler was a warrior and in HS a heckuva football player. I remember when Singler got totally flattened by an elbow from Wake's big lug of a center, Charles McFarland. He sprung to his feet in about a tenth of a second -- so fast that the refs didn't even call the obvious flagrant foul. "Take an eight count, Kyle!"

[uh_no]

I don't see it. Singler was so much better. He was relentless and played with an intensity that Hurt doesn't approach. Singler was one of the best Duke players whose jersey/number hasn't been retired. I hope Hurt can improve to that level, but it's doubtful he can do that while he's playing for Duke.

given we have far less data, the numbers don't back this up at all. Looking at Kyles last two years, and the data we have on hurt from this year:

Singler averaged about 23.9% usage and ~113 ORtg. Hurt's usage is in the same ballpark at 23.1, but his ORtg is significantly higher at 128. Hurt's a better 3 point shooter, 43% to 36%, turns the ball over significantly less, blocks more shots, steals at about the same rate, and shoots about 10-15 percentage points higher from 2. Further, Hurt is a significantly better rebounder.

The only place that Kyle really rivals Hurt is assists, fouls called/drawn, and free throw percentage.

So If you truly believe singler was "so much better," I'd love to see what exactly you think he does so much better, as for all his intensity, he doesn't seem to actually rival Hurt in actual output on the floor.


I agree that there is value to 3 years of contributions, and that you can't rate Hurt's overall accomplishments to singler...but you're extremely dismissive of Hurt's play here...which has been stupendous, especially without the quality of players opposite him like Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer.


None of this is to demean Singler's play or career, but simply to point out how well Hurt is playing to rival and at least so far in this short season, better his output.

[rsvman]

given we have far less data, the numbers don't back this up at all. Looking at Kyles last two years, and the data we have on hurt from this year:

Singler averaged about 23.9% usage and ~113 ORtg. Hurt's usage is in the same ballpark at 23.1, but his ORtg is significantly higher at 128. Hurt's a better 3 point shooter, 43% to 36%, turns the ball over significantly less, blocks more shots, steals at about the same rate, and shoots about 10-15 percentage points higher from 2. Further, Hurt is a significantly better rebounder.

The only place that Kyle really rivals Hurt is assists, fouls called/drawn, and free throw percentage.

So If you truly believe singler was "so much better," I'd love to see what exactly you think he does so much better, as for all his intensity, he doesn't seem to actually rival Hurt in actual output on the floor.

Kedsy, is that you?

[uh_no]

Kedsy, is that you?

Hahaha kedsy-light, if you will

[Dukehk]

Matthew Hurt. Step up to the no.1 option sir.

Wendell Moore. You need another 2 years here.

[roywhite]

Love watching Steward play and progress -- great quickness, versatile, good basketball instincts.

Trying to find a good comp from the Coach K era at Duke.
Almost hate to mention this one, but with his slender build, quickness, and combo guard talents, there is a bit of Johnny Dawkins. Maybe I should temper that -- a "poor man's" Johnny Dawkins.
Or perhaps more like one of his coaches -- Nolan Smith?

[Dukehk]

Only criticism of Hurt is his defence. Its pretty bad. In fact its borderline disastrous.

He can't move his feet quick enough and keeps getting blown by on the perimeter.

Thankfully, his offense and rebounding make up for some of those deficiencies.

As a team though, we're not a good defensive unit.

Goldwire, Roach and Steward are improving though. However the interior shotblocking and paint clogging is almost non existent at this point. Opponents know they can get pretty much any shot against us in the paint.

We need to see more improvement.

[jv001]

Some good things, some not so good and some just bad.

Hurt had 26 pts on 10/15 and 4/7(3s), 6 boards, 2 assists and 3 TOs
DJ had 21 pts on 8/15 and 1/7(3s), 6 boards, 2 assists and 1 TO
Roach had 12 pts on 5/11 and 2/7(3s), 2 boards, 4 assists and 2 TOs
Goldy had 14 pts on 6/10 and 2/3(3s), 5 boards, 5 assists and 0 TOs
Moore had 4 pts on 1/7 and 0/2(3s), 8 boards, 2 assists and 4 TOs

Brakefield played 17 minutes with 0 points, 3 boards, 3 steals and 2 assists and 1 TO
Baker played 7 minutes and had 2 points on 1/1
Williams started but only played 4 minutes, didn't score and had 3 TOs.
Box score showed Coleman with 0+ minutes? I think he took a charge and then came out of the game.

We had 3 player with 3 steals: Hurt, Goldy and Brakefield.
Steward had 2 blocked shots.

When Johnson returns, Steward regains his 3 point shot and Wendell plays like he should we will be a very good team.

GoDuke!

[MChambers]

I don't see it. Singler was so much better. He was relentless and played with an intensity that Hurt doesn't approach. Singler was one of the best Duke players whose jersey/number hasn't been retired. I hope Hurt can improve to that level, but it's doubtful he can do that while he's playing for Duke.

The OP was talking about Hurt's offense, not his total game. No question Singler was a much better player, especially on defense, but offensively they have some similarities.

[Saratoga2]

Having Jalen back gives this team additional size and athleticism. He probably will need time to get a feel for the speed and intensity of the game, but he should make the team fully competitive with the better teams. Hoping for his return soon.

[budwom]

I'm happy we're 3-0, but I'd rather be 2-1 and be playing better basketball overall. It turns out how you play is a far better predictor of your team's future success than your record.

Too early for me to tell how good this team is, or could be, but it's true that none of the three league teams we've beaten has won a league game yet.