Horse Racing 2021

[DevilHorse]

Found an interesting horse in an interesting place.

My eyes lit up when I saw Sleepy Eyes Todd in a place called Fonner Park (I don't know where that is). Sleepy Eyes Todd has appeared as an also ran in a number of big races, so I know who he is. He was in Dubai, and had a great view of the end of the 3 biggest purse races of the year, and gotten a check in 2 of them. Enough to have earned $1.1M, but has barely been within 10 lengths of the winner.

Here are the PPs:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1273230

So he is in for a $75K race today. Perhaps this is the greatest son of Paddy O'Prado, who I remembered being a top grass horse. PoP actually finished 3rd, in the slop, to Super Saver in the Kentucky Derby, so he has dirt cred. But today, his rich son is in against a few decent horses, but not the Grade I fare he has been seeing. It should be a walk-over if he doesn't suffer the hang-over that horses that travel back from Dubai usually get. A very interesting race. He will probably be 1:20 with Bridge Jumpers everywhere if the pools allow it.

Late Edit: Apparently Fonner Park is in Nebraska. Ak-Sar-Ben, where for art thou?

Larry
DevilHorse

Sleepy Eyes Todd took it on the chin and finished 3rd yesterday:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

There was a poor angle on the start. It looked to me as if the horse got pinched from either side and fell back, the transcript said he bobbled, perhaps both. He was then blocked on the rail, had to go 4 wide on the (one) turn and fatigued in the stretch. This was not his finest hour.

No bridge jumpers apparently.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Just to wet your appetite, here is a set of Past Performances for the likely contenders for the KYD that is only 8 days away:
https://www.horseracingnation.com/co...rformances_pps
A couple of horses that might get some play, if they get in, are Sainthood and O'Besos (not to be confused with Bezos).

There aren't many big or interesting stakes races this weekend. While looking through the docket, I did find one item that caught my eye.
The William Walker Stakes at Churchill Downs on Saturday:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1218663

Before looking at the PPs, I'm reminded of the now deceased physicist William Walker, who spent much of his career at Duke:
https://physics.duke.edu/about/histo...lliam-d-walker
Dr. Walker was one of the most accomplished physicists at Duke when I arrived and always seemed to be moving through the building with a purpose (with a brief case when brief cases were in vogue). My lab was along a hall that he passed by each day and over a few years I would actually get a nod. His wife Connie Kalbach was more congenial earlier in my career, and she would say hi. I did have several short but friendly conversations with WW in my later years at Duke, which was nice. I didn't realize he had worked with Feynman, who is of course a physics Rock Star. Dr. Goshaw, who is mentioned in the biography, is a very nice man and is still at Duke in the Department. But of course, that is a different William Walker being commemorated in this race tomorrow than our Duke William Walker. WW was just one of several big contributors to High Energy Physics who passed through Duke and helped to confirm or build the Standard Model (if you like such things).

But I digress..

As for the race, I noticed an interesting participant Roderick. When Roderick broke his maiden by 8 last June, I thought thought this colt, who cost half a million, was one to watch. Out of Into Mischief, he had the goods. A good trainer too. But then he fell apart at Del Mar and still has not earned $100k. Tough game. And why is he back on the turf. It is worth a try. The favorite in here, Cowan, likes the turf, and should lay over this field, but he is coming back from the Desert last month; that is grueling. Often I see a horse race once and take 2 months off before racing. This horse races twice and takes one month off. It was profitable ($300k), but was it exhausting?

Larry
DevilHorse

Roderick was scratched, but here is the results of the William Walker:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Are you ready for the Derby???
Post Position draw is today (Tuesday - 4/27/2021) at 11am EDT - My cable company has it on FS2. Google says NBCSN, but it isn't there.
Caddo River is OUT. Brooklyn Strong draws in with 10 KYD Points.

It is interesting to note that if Hidden Stash wins (not one of the favorites) the trainer would be the first female trainer to win the Kentucky Derby.

It occurred to me that I don't know how many distaffers read this forum. Any out there?

As for Friday's festivities, there are some good if not great races with some super horses. It is Kentucky Oaks Day!!:

Race 6 has the Alysheba with Maxfield.
Alysheba was perhaps the best son of Alydar, this side of Turkoman. It is great that he has a big race named for him.
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=812442
Maxfield is trying to recover from his first loss.

Race 7 is the Edgewood on the turf, and marks the first appearance of the year of the undefeated Turf filly Aunt Pearl:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=947849

Race 8 gives us the La Troieenne with Shedaresthedevil vs. Dunbar Road
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1083256
Shedaresthedevil last defeated Letruska decisively (but got that one into shape), and a couple of weeks ago Letruska defeated Monomoy Girl. This could vault Shedaresthedevil to the head of the division.

Race 9 is named for the ill fated Eight Belles.
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1218663
This race features Dayoutoftheoffice and Kalypso.

Race 11 is the Kentucky Oaks:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1489477
There are 3 really good fillies in this race: The undefeated Search Results, the undefeated Malathaat, and Travel Column.
Every filly in this race has a shot. It is a really good race. Malathaat might have an edge.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

We have many interesting races at Churchill Downs on Derby Day with horses that have been mentioned along the derby trail and others mentioned in this forum:

In the 2nd race on the derby card is a Maiden Turf race:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...=680&param3=68
You'll be getting some full fields here, and big prices. One horse that I'd take a shot with is Cerulian by Air Force Blue. This is a first time starter. If you recall, Air Force Blue was a surprise top First Year sire of horses in Europe, and his 2YOs won a ton here too. There is no price on this one, and his works are good, not great. But he is on Lasix for his very first start. One betting angle that may have been mentioned is horses from Europe who bleed that have to come to the US to take advantage of our medication rules, like Lasix. Maybe we have a firster from a top sire, and taking advantage of Lasix, with a price.


In the 3rd race, Alexander Valley races again:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...1020&param3=68
Here's a chance to break his maiden, AND to beat Harvard (the 1 horse).

In the 5th race, Ghazally rides again:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=677035
He won last time out, and is now in this Optional Claimer.

and now for some Stakes races:

In race 7, the 7 furlong Derby City Distaff:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=947849
Gamine will be the shortest price of the day in a trounce of this field.

In race 8, the Pat Day Mile:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1083256
Perhaps last year's best sprinter, Jackie's Warrior, against one of this year's better speed horses Dream Shake. To top off the competition is Prevalence who did not look good in the stretch of the Wood Memorial (but no doubt earned some experience).

In race 9, the American Turf:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1218663
Annex would seem to have the upper hand.

In race 10, the Churchill Downs Stakes:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1354070
Whitmore can finally get away from C Z Rocket. Flagstaff will be challenging.

In race 13, there is a really interesting Optional Claimer:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1760291
Several horses mentioned in this forum are entered here:
Prime Factor ($900K yearling, but not so great in stakes) will be challenged by Calibrate ($340k yearling, big maiden winner, last seen in BC Juvenile loss to Essential Quality) who gets first time Lasix, and Triple Tap (homebred Tapit half brother to American Pharoah, won only start by 4.5 lengths a few weeks ago for Baffert, first time Lasix, great works). Ooooh Boy!!! Each of these 3 would be worth a couple of ducats if alone in the large field.

Did I miss any races??? Perhaps the next entry will discuss race 12, the Kentucky Derby..

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

On 5/1/2021, the Kentucky Derby returns to May. 2 years ago, this would not have sounded like such a profound statement, yet it is a welcome harbinger of the normalcy that we hope is coming.

I saw this tidbit on twitter yesterday:
Did you know? The 1st @KentuckyDerby draw in 1875 was sponsored by Concord Stagecoach? (I surely hope Concord Stagecoach diversified!).
But then, where would the Stagecoach industry have been without the horses? Looks like the livestock outlived that stock.

Anyway, onto Race 12 at Churchill Downs on 5/1/2021:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1624884

The weather looks like no factor. Sunny and 73 deg F.

Do you think that groups of jockeys will be racing as teams since multiple trainers have more than one horse in the field? I doubt it. Other than there being some expected speed in the race, every jockey in the race has a plan to win for their owner, not someone else's owner.

As many of you know, there will be a new starting gate for this year's KYD. All horses will start from it, without there being a break in the gate. That gives less of a disadvantage to the rail horse than previous years. Known Agenda, who has the 1 hole, can be thankful for that, as he is one of the favorites with a 6-1 morning line figure. This horse is getting better rapidly, and if he doesn't 'bounce', will be heard from at the end of this race. Irad Ortiz will have him in position.

Essential Quality, Helium, and Rock Your World are you undefeated horses. Helium's best win is the Tampa Bay Derby and the figure for that is well below that other contenders in this field, and he is picking up the most weight of any horse in the field (9 lbs); pass.
Rock Your World of course won the Santa Anita Derby in grand fashion, in his first dirt appearance (he won his first 2 races on the turf). Two minor knocks against him are that he will have a switch in jockeys; his usual jockey is committed to Brooklyn Strong, so Rock Your World will get Joel Rosario (not too shabby). Also, Rock Your World has not yet had dirt thrown in his face, and he is likely to have a lot of it in this race. He may not care, but then again, he may care. This is a draw back of few races and only turf/front running races.
Essential Quality has answered every call and question; he has run in mid-pack and stalked the pace, and deserves to be your post time favorite, by a lot.

Like The King appears to have a nice kick that would serve him well here, but does he have the class?

Hot Rod Charlie loses his regular jockey and picks up Flavian Prat (who is riding GREAT at Santa Anita). This is the horse that Essential Quality strained to beat in their last race. If Hot Rod Charlie got more out of it, then this horse might get the nod. But remember, EQ is 1 for 1 against HRC (that is not Hilary's initials). Does Prat get this horse past EQ?

Hidden Stash has decent numbers, but doesn't win. The first lady trainer to win the derby will have to wait for another year.

Hot Rod Charlie beat the horses from the Fair Grounds, so if I have to make a stand, I'm going to write off Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon. Those 2 have been beating each other this spring anyway. Proxy, who finished right with those horses all spring, recently showed to be a fake in his most recent attempt.

O'Besos and Sainthood have been horses to fill up the time. Sainthood, maybe, has had excuses because of traffic problems; someone tell Corey Lanerie, his 4th jockey in his 4th start, that it is not likely to improve in a 20 horse field. O'Besos is improving with every start, and still wouldn't finish within 10 lengths of Essential Quality.

Keepmeinmind... why?
Has been beaten 3 times by EQ. Most recently by double digits.

Brooklyn Strong has a has one bad race since last year. Not worthy of a bet.

Medina Spirit seems to perpetually be a 'best of the rest' kind of horse. Limited by pedigree. Perhaps will be overbet, but will get a better chance because of front running style, but will likely finish back because will poop out.

Dynamic One took 4 tries to break his maiden, then finished 2nd in the Wood with a nice speed figure, but still would need a big jump to compete with the top ones.
Bourbonic from the 20 hole is a tough sell. Running style is good from there, but if Essential Quality doesn't back up (like a good Tapit usually does) he will not have anything to work with. I tend to think the NY horses were of lower quality; they struck out when they shipped down to Florida for the Florida Derby this year. But then, it wasn't these 2 horses. I'm not saying to avoid Bourbonic like the plague (I had to say that), but he'll need much improvement and will need luck.

King Fury might have some talent, but he needs another race in him.

Highly Motivated gave Essential Quality all he could handle in the Lexington. I don't expect the front running attempt here. 3rd race after a lay-off should have him at peak performance. Can use in the top 3.

Super Stock showed improvement winning the Arkansas Derby, but although he gets checks, does not win often. I'd be happier with a killer jockey.

Soup and a Sandwich, has talent, but probably not going on a derby glass at a Louisville bistrow. Lightly raced. Not a crime. New, but good jockey. Looks like this horse needs to be near the front, but will be tough for him to get there from the #19 hole.

My evaluation is:

Contenders: Essential Quality, Known Agenda, Highly Motivated, Rock Your World
Long Shot Specials: Like The King, Bourbonic

Your Triple:

1) Essential Quality
2) Rock Your World
3) Known Agenda

What are your picks?

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

For those having a tough time with their handicapping, here are some other opinions about:

The Kentucky Oaks:
https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...y_favorite_123

The Kentucky Derby:
https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...d_analysis_123


I don't know about you, but I could look at Soup and Sandwich all day:
https://twitter.com/ZenyattaMafia/st...247488/photo/1

He's not chopped liver!

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Sleepy Eyes Todd took it on the chin and finished 3rd yesterday:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

There was a poor angle on the start. It looked to me as if the horse got pinched from either side and fell back, the transcript said he bobbled, perhaps both. He was then blocked on the rail, had to go 4 wide on the (one) turn and fatigued in the stretch. This was not his finest hour.

No bridge jumpers apparently.

Larry
DevilHorse

I believe Fonner Park is in Grand Island, NE a little off I-80 and a few hours from Lincoln. I have passed through it, looking for a restaurant off the interstate. It has a big Case Farm Equipment plant and pretty good Chinese food thanks to its history as a part of the Union Pacific rail route, partially built by Chinese immigrants. This food thing is true all along I-80 in Nebraska as the interstate parallels the UP route across the state.

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

On 5/1/2021, the Kentucky Derby returns to May. 2 years ago, this would not have sounded like such a profound statement, yet it is a welcome harbinger of the normalcy that we hope is coming.

I saw this tidbit on twitter yesterday:
Did you know? The 1st @KentuckyDerby draw in 1875 was sponsored by Concord Stagecoach? (I surely hope Concord Stagecoach diversified!).
But then, where would the Stagecoach industry have been without the horses? Looks like the livestock outlived that stock.

Anyway, onto Race 12 at Churchill Downs on 5/1/2021:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1624884

The weather looks like no factor. Sunny and 73 deg F.

Do you think that groups of jockeys will be racing as teams since multiple trainers have more than one horse in the field? I doubt it. Other than there being some expected speed in the race, every jockey in the race has a plan to win for their owner, not someone else's owner.

As many of you know, there will be a new starting gate for this year's KYD. All horses will start from it, without there being a break in the gate. That gives less of a disadvantage to the rail horse than previous years. Known Agenda, who has the 1 hole, can be thankful for that, as he is one of the favorites with a 6-1 morning line figure. This horse is getting better rapidly, and if he doesn't 'bounce', will be heard from at the end of this race. Irad Ortiz will have him in position.

Essential Quality, Helium, and Rock Your World are you undefeated horses. Helium's best win is the Tampa Bay Derby and the figure for that is well below that other contenders in this field, and he is picking up the most weight of any horse in the field (9 lbs); pass.
Rock Your World of course won the Santa Anita Derby in grand fashion, in his first dirt appearance (he won his first 2 races on the turf). Two minor knocks against him are that he will have a switch in jockeys; his usual jockey is committed to Brooklyn Strong, so Rock Your World will get Joel Rosario (not too shabby). Also, Rock Your World has not yet had dirt thrown in his face, and he is likely to have a lot of it in this race. He may not care, but then again, he may care. This is a draw back of few races and only turf/front running races.
Essential Quality has answered every call and question; he has run in mid-pack and stalked the pace, and deserves to be your post time favorite, by a lot.

Like The King appears to have a nice kick that would serve him well here, but does he have the class?

Hot Rod Charlie loses his regular jockey and picks up Flavian Prat (who is riding GREAT at Santa Anita). This is the horse that Essential Quality strained to beat in their last race. If Hot Rod Charlie got more out of it, then this horse might get the nod. But remember, EQ is 1 for 1 against HRC (that is not Hilary's initials). Does Prat get this horse past EQ?

Hidden Stash has decent numbers, but doesn't win. The first lady trainer to win the derby will have to wait for another year.

Hot Rod Charlie beat the horses from the Fair Grounds, so if I have to make a stand, I'm going to write off Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon. Those 2 have been beating each other this spring anyway. Proxy, who finished right with those horses all spring, recently showed to be a fake in his most recent attempt.

O'Besos and Sainthood have been horses to fill up the time. Sainthood, maybe, has had excuses because of traffic problems; someone tell Corey Lanerie, his 4th jockey in his 4th start, that it is not likely to improve in a 20 horse field. O'Besos is improving with every start, and still wouldn't finish within 10 lengths of Essential Quality.

Keepmeinmind... why?
Has been beaten 3 times by EQ. Most recently by double digits.

Brooklyn Strong has a has one bad race since last year. Not worthy of a bet.

Medina Spirit seems to perpetually be a 'best of the rest' kind of horse. Limited by pedigree. Perhaps will be overbet, but will get a better chance because of front running style, but will likely finish back because will poop out.

Dynamic One took 4 tries to break his maiden, then finished 2nd in the Wood with a nice speed figure, but still would need a big jump to compete with the top ones.
Bourbonic from the 20 hole is a tough sell. Running style is good from there, but if Essential Quality doesn't back up (like a good Tapit usually does) he will not have anything to work with. I tend to think the NY horses were of lower quality; they struck out when they shipped down to Florida for the Florida Derby this year. But then, it wasn't these 2 horses. I'm not saying to avoid Bourbonic like the plague (I had to say that), but he'll need much improvement and will need luck.

King Fury might have some talent, but he needs another race in him.

Highly Motivated gave Essential Quality all he could handle in the Lexington. I don't expect the front running attempt here. 3rd race after a lay-off should have him at peak performance. Can use in the top 3.

Super Stock showed improvement winning the Arkansas Derby, but although he gets checks, does not win often. I'd be happier with a killer jockey.

Soup and a Sandwich, has talent, but probably not going on a derby glass at a Louisville bistrow. Lightly raced. Not a crime. New, but good jockey. Looks like this horse needs to be near the front, but will be tough for him to get there from the #19 hole.

My evaluation is:

Contenders: Essential Quality, Known Agenda, Highly Motivated, Rock Your World
Long Shot Specials: Like The King, Bourbonic

Your Triple:

1) Essential Quality
2) Rock Your World
3) Known Agenda

What are your picks?

Larry
DevilHorse

This looks like a good trifecta. I will say that betting a trifecta in a race with 20 horses is a daunting task. I have bet on Essential Quality the last several races, so I will keep doing so until he disappoints me, unless he has a legitimate excuse. I haven’t seen his dosage figure, but I assume as a Tapit he qualifies. It also seems to me, it’s time for a Tapit to win the Derby.

[DevilHorse]

This looks like a good trifecta. I will say that betting a trifecta in a race with 20 horses is a daunting task. I have bet on Essential Quality the last several races, so I will keep doing so until he disappoints me, unless he has a legitimate excuse. I haven’t seen his dosage figure, but I assume as a Tapit he qualifies. It also seems to me, it’s time for a Tapit to win the Derby.

Too late for Tapit, but perhaps a son (I know what you mean ;^). Tapit's progeny showed a bit more distance aptitude than Into Mischief's, so who knows. He is due.

How about an all grey Exacta Box:
- Essential Quality
- Soup and Sandwich

An all Chestnut Superfecta Box:
- Known Agenda
- Like The King
- King Fury
- O'Besos
- Dynamic One
- Hidden Stash

Clyde Van Dusen gelding hunch bet:
- Brooklyn Strong


Larry
DevilHorse

[OldPhiKap]

Derby Day!

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Derby Day!

Sometimes I think I’m the only degenerate on here who likes to bet the ponies. Im not sure if North Carolinians have TVG or Twinspires. Thankfully my new home state of Tennessee has online horse betting. What else is a 71 year old who hates golf going to do. Thanks to Covid my handicapping has improved with more practice. In April I eked out a small profit, as in VERY small.

It looked like Essential Quality might go off at 4/1, then Mattress Mac placed a huge bet and drove his odds down. I wish super rich folks would leave a few crumbs for us regular folks. Now he is back up to 5/2 and will hopefully go up all day. I hate betting the favorite in the Derby, but he sure seems to be good, maybe great. As a mostly life long Kentuckian, now living in Tennessee, i am prejudiced against California horses, so Rock Your World is out for me. Plus I don’t think the California horses are that good this year. As proof, Baffert only has one horse in the Derby, a 12 to 1 shot. Having said all that, Gamine looks unbeatable today in her race.

The Oaks held to form yesterday with Malathaat. Travel Column was upset and unhappy before the race, and ran like it. The biggest disappointment of the day was Aunt Pearl. Maxfield and Shedaresthedevil looked good and ran to form. So if form holds today there may be a lot of chalk.

This is one of my favorite days of the year. My wife will enjoy a mint julep. Me, I’m a gin guy. Go figure! May all your bets be winning bets!

[DevilHorse]

Sometimes I think I’m the only degenerate on here who likes to bet the ponies. Im not sure if North Carolinians have TVG or Twinspires. Thankfully my new home state of Tennessee has online horse betting. What else is a 71 year old who hates golf going to do. Thanks to Covid my handicapping has improved with more practice. In April I eked out a small profit, as in VERY small.

It looked like Essential Quality might go off at 4/1, then Mattress Mac placed a huge bet and drove his odds down. I wish super rich folks would leave a few crumbs for us regular folks. Now he is back up to 5/2 and will hopefully go up all day. I hate betting the favorite in the Derby, but he sure seems to be good, maybe great. As a mostly life long Kentuckian, now living in Tennessee, i am prejudiced against California horses, so Rock Your World is out for me. Plus I don’t think the California horses are that good this year. As proof, Baffert only has one horse in the Derby, a 12 to 1 shot. Having said all that, Gamine looks unbeatable today in her race.

The Oaks held to form yesterday with Malathaat. Travel Column was upset and unhappy before the race, and ran like it. The biggest disappointment of the day was Aunt Pearl. Maxfield and Shedaresthedevil looked good and ran to form. So if form holds today there may be a lot of chalk.

This is one of my favorite days of the year. My wife will enjoy a mint julep. Me, I’m a gin guy. Go figure! May all your bets be winning bets!

Thanks for the review of yesterday TDMMDI. I'm travelling as my youngest is graduating college this weekend. However, I am observing a few races and the NFL Draft at the moment.

Gamine just won her race. Did she just win by 4? Perhaps like a 1/5 shot should, who didn't like the track. I wish my horses need excuses to win by 4. Baffert made an interesting comment. These 3 YOs probably haven't raced in front of crowds before. They started racing in May, well into the COVID prohibition at tracks. Wow, has this virus controlled our lives for a long time!

So, we now have 5 possible categories for people:
1) degenerates on here who like the ponies and bet # I count myself on this list
2) degenerates on here who don't like the ponies and bet # The morbidly curious and Moderators?
3) degenerates on here who like the ponies and don't bet # Perhaps the majority of people on this list
4) degenerates on here who don't like the ponies and don't bet # listless strange people
5) degenerates not on here # there are probably many, on DBR and not on DBR

And congratulations to Maxfield on his convincing win yesterday.

BTW, I do not think even half of the money wagered on the KYD has been bet. So the final odds/favorite is not strictly determined yet. If people see value elsewhere, the odds on EQ will percolate back up. In the era of electronic betting, huge amounts of money can move quickly. And this is a world-wide event.

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Thanks for the review of yesterday TDMMDI. I'm travelling as my youngest is graduating college this weekend. However, I am observing a few races and the NFL Draft at the moment.

Gamine just won her race. Did she just win by 4? Perhaps like a 1/5 shot should, who didn't like the track. I wish my horses need excuses to win by 4. Baffert made an interesting comment. These 3 YOs probably haven't raced in front of crowds before. They started racing in May, well into the COVID prohibition at tracks. Wow, has this virus controlled our lives for a long time!

So, we now have 5 possible categories for people:
1) degenerates on here who like the ponies and bet # I count myself on this list
2) degenerates on here who don't like the ponies and bet # The morbidly curious and Moderators?
3) degenerates on here who like the ponies and don't bet # Perhaps the majority of people on this list
4) degenerates on here who don't like the ponies and don't bet # listless strange people
5) degenerates not on here # there are probably many, on DBR and not on DBR

And congratulations to Maxfield on his convincing win yesterday.

BTW, I do not think even half of the money wagered on the KYD has been bet. So the final odds/favorite is not strictly determined yet. If people see value elsewhere, the odds on EQ will percolate back up. In the era of electronic betting, huge amounts of money can move quickly. And this is a world-wide event.

Larry
DevilHorse

Gamine stumbled and broke awkwardly out of the gate. She probably doesn’t like the track, but she still won, just not as easily as she usually does. Congrats on your college graduate.

[OldPhiKap]

Sometimes I think I’m the only degenerate on here who likes to bet the ponies. Im not sure if North Carolinians have TVG or Twinspires. Thankfully my new home state of Tennessee has online horse betting. What else is a 71 year old who hates golf going to do. Thanks to Covid my handicapping has improved with more practice. In April I eked out a small profit, as in VERY small.

It looked like Essential Quality might go off at 4/1, then Mattress Mac placed a huge bet and drove his odds down. I wish super rich folks would leave a few crumbs for us regular folks. Now he is back up to 5/2 and will hopefully go up all day. I hate betting the favorite in the Derby, but he sure seems to be good, maybe great. As a mostly life long Kentuckian, now living in Tennessee, i am prejudiced against California horses, so Rock Your World is out for me. Plus I don’t think the California horses are that good this year. As proof, Baffert only has one horse in the Derby, a 12 to 1 shot. Having said all that, Gamine looks unbeatable today in her race.

The Oaks held to form yesterday with Malathaat. Travel Column was upset and unhappy before the race, and ran like it. The biggest disappointment of the day was Aunt Pearl. Maxfield and Shedaresthedevil looked good and ran to form. So if form holds today there may be a lot of chalk.

This is one of my favorite days of the year. My wife will enjoy a mint julep. Me, I’m a gin guy. Go figure! May all your bets be winning bets!

Yes, thanks for your breakdowns. We don’t have betting here in my part of the Bible Belt unless I travel. So I have an interest in the ponies but my ability to partake is limited and random.

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Gamine stumbled and broke awkwardly out of the gate. She probably doesn’t like the track, but she still won, just not as easily as she usually does. Congrats on your college graduate.

Shows what I know, Baffert’s third stringer that sold originally for $1000. wins the Derby. At least I didn’t lose as much as Mattress Mac!

[sagegrouse]

Shows what I know, Baffert’s third stringer that sold originally for $1000. wins the Derby. At least I didn’t lose as much as Mattress Mac!

Wasn't Medina Spirit the horse that the somewhat annoying Steve Kondracki -- the numbers guy on MSNBC -- picked during the pre-race show?

[DevilHorse]

Wasn't Medina Spirit the horse that the somewhat annoying Steve Kondracki -- the numbers guy on MSNBC -- picked during the pre-race show?

Perhaps, Kornacki is somewhat knowledgeable about horses from his youthful days in New England.
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/st...04930568597514
Medina's Spirit is by Protonix who sports a $5K stud fee this year. Compare that to the $200K stud fee of Tapit, who is Essential Quality's dad.

As an aside, I too met Bill Finley, and his wife, at a friend's barbecue years ago. Very nice fellow.

Medina Spirit does sport a 5x5X6 cross to Secretariat for those of you who care about such things. Also one cross to Holy bull along his dam line.

I'll have more to say about the race when the redux comes out.

Larry
DevilHorse

[duketaylor]

So i boxed 6, 8-10, 12, 14, 17 ($.50 tri)
Just needed the 7 horse in there.
O so close to a nice payday
Had same horses boxed in $1 super.
Next!!

[DevilHorse]

Congratulations to Medina Spirit on a great Kentucky Derby win. Baffert knows how to prep horses so their speed will hold up, and it did on Saturday. That really was an exciting stretch run when any one of 4 horses could have taken command and won, but it was Medina Spirit who hung in and showed grit, unlike previous starts.
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
The time for the race was very good. We'll see if this effort takes something out of Medina Spirit who has to do it again in a short 2 weeks.

My pick, Essential Quality, I thought put out the most effort in the loss, he was taken out by Highly Motivated at the start and was wide the whole race. It was a strategy not to get blocked (in the large field), but you lose precious lengths, which were needed at the end.

Mandaloun put in his best lifetime effort to finish second.

Hot Rod Charlie was in it for much of the race, and will be heard from again.

Known Agenda was no where to be seen and was no doubt affected by being in the 1 hole.

I imagine there will be a relatively full field at the Preakness.

John Velasquez, jockey for Medina Spirit, has the rare distinction of winning the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby. What a Daily Double.

Here is an article talking about the fate of other horses in the race:
https://www.kentucky.com/sports/hors...251072219.html

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Congratulations to Medina Spirit on a great Kentucky Derby win. Baffert knows how to prep horses so their speed will hold up, and it did on Saturday. That really was an exciting stretch run when any one of 4 horses could have taken command and won, but it was Medina Spirit who hung in and showed grit, unlike previous starts.
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
The time for the race was very good. We'll see if this effort takes something out of Medina Spirit who has to do it again in a short 2 weeks.

My pick, Essential Quality, I thought put out the most effort in the loss, he was taken out by Highly Motivated at the start and was wide the whole race. It was a strategy not to get blocked (in the large field), but you lose precious lengths, which were needed at the end.

Mandaloun put in his best lifetime effort to finish second.

Hot Rod Charlie was in it for much of the race, and will be heard from again.

Known Agenda was no where to be seen and was no doubt affected by being in the 1 hole.

I imagine there will be a relatively full field at the Preakness.

John Velasquez, jockey for Medina Spirit, has the rare distinction of winning the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby. What a Daily Double.

Here is an article talking about the fate of other horses in the race:
https://www.kentucky.com/sports/hors...251072219.html

Larry
DevilHorse

I continue to obsess about Essential Quality. I have heard several trainers and commentators talk about how you can’t be wide around both turns and expect to win. Yet he was. Was that a bad ride by an overconfident jockey? I have seen charts that show how far each horse actually travels in a race, but today I can’t seem to find one. Hopefully you can provide a link. With the exception of Baffert’s horse everything else was formful. While Mandaloun ran terrible in the Louisiana Derby, I heard a lot of talk about how he had trained in Louisville. One other observation is that the Fairgrounds horses are running lights out a Churchill Downs. I am disappointed as racing needs a super horse. I was hopeful that was EQ.

One other comment, check out the fractions on Jackie Warriors race. Four furlongs in under 44. He would have beaten Gamine and won the race with Whitmore. I think I know the Breeder’s Cup sprint champ if he stays healthy.