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  1. #81
    Ready to start looking for NEXT YEAR'S Derby Horse?

    You have your chance starting today?
    Keeneland will have its' first 2YO Maiden race of the year in the first race, post time 1:05 Eastern.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...276&param3=483

    All of the horses are essentially $10k or less, with decent sires, running for $60k. So aspirations for these guys are low. But you never know.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  2. #82
    One of the final KYD preps is coming up this weekend.

    The Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1915908
    Concert Tour is the likely favorite. Caddo River will try to rehabilitate his reputation after his poor showing in the Rebel.
    This will be the last of the big, 100 points to the winner, derby preps.

    Waiting on the Lexington Stakes entries at Keeneland to round out the weekend KYD point stakes.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  3. #83

    Lexington Stakes 2021

    Here are the PPs for the Lexington Stakes:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1364175

    There are a couple of horses we have mentioned earlier in here.
    Proxy, who has hit the board in a couple of KYD preps through Louisiana, but not won anything.
    Bezos comes in from Santa Anita, with a lofty reputation, hoping that the 20 KYD points winners share will be enough to qualify for the big race in 3 weeks.

    Of the new shooters, Swiftsure looks the most interesting. He is undefeated, with 2 races under his belt. But only at 6f. But his pedigree suggests he will want to go longer. He has the connections (Assmussen) to get him there.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  4. #84
    OK, lots of races yesterday.

    At Keeneland, on a very sloppy racetrack, a horse named King Fury won at odds of 18-1:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Here is a discussion of the race from the Blood Horse:
    https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...xington-stakes
    A lot of weird stuff, perhaps due to track conditions. Bezos backed up through the field after cutting the fractions. I don't know what that means.

    Meanwhile, at Oaklawn Park. There was great racing, including the Arkansas Derby:
    This race was won by Super Stock at 12-1:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    The son of Dialed-In had license to improve off his first time out, and could be a contender.
    This horse is trained by Steve Asmussen, and is partially owned by Steve's son Keith. Keith was actually the jockey for this horse for his first 3 starts of his career. You don't hear that for KYD contenders these days.
    Concert Tour is (obviously) no longer undefeated, and finished a well beaten third. Caddo River was third.

    In other races, C Z Rocket again beat Whitmore in the Count Fleet Stakes
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Whitmore had a little traffic trouble, but C Z Rocket made a bold sweeping move and would not be denied.
    Count Fleet was a great race horse. I chanced upon his grave site once when visiting Stoner Creek stud in Lexington Kentucky.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  5. #85

    Two Filly Stories

    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    A digression from the KYD arc of this Forum since some of you are SOB's (Soft on Beasts.. a.k.a., animal lovers).

    As some of you may know, there is a mutation for albino-ism in mammals that occurs. It manifests itself in humans (Johnny Winter), the rare white buffalo of native american lore, and yes, the horse population. A standardbred was born in 2012, eventually named White Bliss, that had this mutation and had a very good pedigree but never amounted to more than an average race horse. I saw this horse in person, and he was striking to see (after he was washed). I believe he sold for $240K as a yearling; well in excess of his pedigree. And he will be bred!

    I came across the following little video of a thoroughbred from Japan on twitter who just became a Grade I winner:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1379747278156537862
    Looking at her pedigree, it is all from imported U.S. horses to Japan. Watch the video and take note of pictures of her mother who is more than gorgeous if you like such things. Being able to pass this trait on is more than desirable/marketable.

    In the standardbreds, there was nothing but bays, browns, chestnuts, and the occasional black horses 50 years ago. There was a minor sire named Smog who was grey, and then a stallion named Laag came along who was grey and a world record holder, and the complexion of the breed changed. There are lots of greys now in the breed, and you can find these horses in their pedigree. Laag was bred by a man named Albert Adams, who collected grey mares in an effort to breed a great grey, which he did. Laag's mare Tinsel was grey, and all of her tail female mares were grey as far back as I can trace. [Bonus Digression] Almahurst was at one time run by P. J. Baugh, who took one of the first Executive Education classes at the newly minted Fuqua School of Business.

    In Thoroughbreds, more recently, Tapit is a grey. His dominance as a sire, and a sire of sires, is greying the breed in a good way. Your Kentucky Derby favorite this year will be the grey son of Tapit, Essential Quality.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Sodashi wins again!

    https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...i-wins-oka-sho

    BTW, if you are a National Velvet fan (and who isn't) the Grand National was run this past Saturday and was won by the very first female jockey Rachel Blackmore. She was not taken down for being a female jockey (ahem), and she stayed on her mount.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/horse-racing/56701659

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  6. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    OK, lots of races yesterday.

    At Keeneland, on a very sloppy racetrack, a horse named King Fury won at odds of 18-1:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Here is a discussion of the race from the Blood Horse:
    https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...xington-stakes
    A lot of weird stuff, perhaps due to track conditions. Bezos backed up through the field after cutting the fractions. I don't know what that means.

    Meanwhile, at Oaklawn Park. There was great racing, including the Arkansas Derby:
    This race was won by Super Stock at 12-1:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    The son of Dialed-In had license to improve off his first time out, and could be a contender.
    This horse is trained by Steve Asmussen, and is partially owned by Steve's son Keith. Keith was actually the jockey for this horse for his first 3 starts of his career. You don't hear that for KYD contenders these days.
    Concert Tour is (obviously) no longer undefeated, and finished a well beaten third. Caddo River was third.

    In other races, C Z Rocket again beat Whitmore in the Count Fleet Stakes
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Whitmore had a little traffic trouble, but C Z Rocket made a bold sweeping move and would not be denied.
    Count Fleet was a great race horse. I chanced upon his grave site once when visiting Stoner Creek stud in Lexington Kentucky.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Thanks for continuing with great information and links. Thanks to the excellent handicapping by Caton Brader on TVG I had the exacta on the Ark. Derby which paid about $50 on a 1$ bet in a small field. The winner looked like the only horse that might enjoy 1 1/4 miles in the KY Derby.

    So how is the Derby looking to you? I wish Essential Quality had been more dominant in the Bluegrass, but he keeps winning, which is something no other horse is doing every race. As a Tapit he shouldnít have a problem with the distance and he is still lightly raced. Maybe the Bluegrass will help him. The California horse is interesting, but if he is a Derby horse why run him on the grass, twice? The Wood winner was a long shot, so Iíll pass. The only race I havenít watched is the Florida Derby, so maybe he is worth a look. Iím not sure what Baffert has left, but I soured on him as a trainer over drug issues. (Justify shouldnít have even been eligible for the Derby). Maybe I am just getting grumpy in my old age.

    One other thought, if you watch TVG who do you think is the best handicapper? I would go with Caton Brader, at least in Kentucky races. I believe her husband is a jockey agent for Florent Geroux, so Iím guessing handicapping is a family affair. On Fox sports I like Jonathan Kitchen.

    Somebody on TVG said Essential Quality would off off at 7/2. If so, I plan to load up on that.

  7. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    Thanks for continuing with great information and links. Thanks to the excellent handicapping by Caton Brader on TVG I had the exacta on the Ark. Derby which paid about $50 on a 1$ bet in a small field. The winner looked like the only horse that might enjoy 1 1/4 miles in the KY Derby.

    So how is the Derby looking to you? I wish Essential Quality had been more dominant in the Bluegrass, but he keeps winning, which is something no other horse is doing every race. As a Tapit he shouldn’t have a problem with the distance and he is still lightly raced. Maybe the Bluegrass will help him. The California horse is interesting, but if he is a Derby horse why run him on the grass, twice? The Wood winner was a long shot, so I’ll pass. The only race I haven’t watched is the Florida Derby, so maybe he is worth a look. I’m not sure what Baffert has left, but I soured on him as a trainer over drug issues. (Justify shouldn’t have even been eligible for the Derby). Maybe I am just getting grumpy in my old age.

    One other thought, if you watch TVG who do you think is the best handicapper? I would go with Caton Brader, at least in Kentucky races. I believe her husband is a jockey agent for Florent Geroux, so I’m guessing handicapping is a family affair. On Fox sports I like Jonathan Kitchen.

    Somebody on TVG said Essential Quality would off off at 7/2. If so, I plan to load up on that.
    I like Caton Bredar. She used to do the afternoon Monmouth Park handicapping each day (locally to me), so I've been familiar with her work for years.
    As a devotee of Bonny Ledbetter, I appreciate the input that I get from Gabby Gaudet (married to Norm Casse, son of Mark Casse). Gabby used to do the Saratoga summer show with NYRA. Gabby and Maggie Wolfendale (NYRA/America's Day At The Races/Fox) give similar read-outs of what horses look like in the paddock, and they take notes (or just plain remember) what these horses looked like and acted like in previous starts. Noting improvements or changes are useful. They have been around horses all of their lives and can tell behaviors that can contribute toward stuff that is not in the program, and relevant TODAY. If you can pick up material written or on video from Ledbetter, it will serve you well on horse behavior; she was the patron saint of this stuff (died too soon).

    As far as handicappers on TVG are concerned, I like Rich Perloff. However, they haven't had him on the big days of racing too often. As far as the other guys, it really depends on what you like. Some of these guys are better at guiding you toward the chalk, and will help fill you in on the TVG contests (pick 8 for 8, or 5 for 5). If you want big ROI and big misses, Matt Carothers is your guy. Yes, Kitchen is fun (like Carothers). All of these guys find interesting angles. If only there was enough hours in a day to do the analytics to find which of these (competing) angles worked. I'll listen to all reasoned opinions and pick what seems interesting. Horses that are physically dull I can throw out. Horses have headaches, or they want their mommies, and that is how they tell you. (reasons to listen to Gaudet and Wolfendale)

    I recall Gabby swearing by the angle that first time Geldings had a big edge. I KNOW that that had moderators to be effective. You can't pick a first time gelding if it was on a horse that was too old. The effect has to take place on a young horse or it won't have that much of the desired effect. I'll keep on eye on that one, since I only heard her espouse that one recently, but it wasn't big news.

    Essential Quality is a wonderful horse. He had every right to be under-prepared for the Blue Grass, and he did just enough to win. If that was a dull effort (note his change of tactics too; he is never that close to the pace), then he is surely a good bet in the KYD. These horses have so few starts, you can't blame owners/trainers for toying around with some of them on the turf early; the money is so good for young horses on the turf now. Better than it used to be. But if you get a really good one, give it a try in the spring on the dirt and try to get KYD points and who knows. You might get an Animal Kingdom or Big Brown. That is worth the gamble. The money is better at This time of the year for 3YOs on the dirt than the turf. I agree that Rock Your World does look interesting; he'll take some money. Known Agenda is a serious horse who has the pedigree and the trainer to do damage in that race. Hot Rod Charlie has the worst name of the top 10 to 'go down in horse racing lore'. But he has credentials. Maybe Concert Tour threw in one of those pre-KYD clunkers just to up the odds.

    The Justify thing was a technicality as far as I can tell. I found an article on this and it suggests that the positive is likely to have come from environmental contamination. This was a fairly thorough investigation that occurred. The allowed threshold was 70, and they measured 300.
    https://sports.nbcsports.com/2019/09...ive-drug-test/
    I see no reason why Baffert would have used something like this when his other horses tested cleanly. The odd thing is that a number of other horses tested for low levels of about 300 of the same drug, and plants that would give this same reading were found in the parking lot and grow in the paddocks naturally. Racetracks have grass paddocks that are available to the horseman so their horses can be put out and eat the grass for an hour a day, and just "lower their blood pressure" in the open air. These are wild growing fields with weeds and stuff. Besides, if a jurisdiction allows a major stakes race test to go more than 3 weeks, as a qualifier for another race; it is their fault too! I would let this go.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  8. #88
    Some tasty horse stuff for you:

    The big ticket horse race this weekend will be the Apple Blossom this weekend at Oaklawn Park:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1756249
    This race will pit the great Monomoy Girl against the equally fantastic Swiss Skydiver.
    Monomoy Girl who won the last two BC Mare races and Eclipse awards for top Mare.
    Swiss Skydiver who won last year's Preakness and Alabama Stakes, and the Eclipse award for 3YO filly.
    SS lost to Monomoy Girl in the BC Mare race 5 months ago, by 8 lengths. But as we all know, 3YOs do a lot of growing as they become 4YOs and SS had a grueling campaign. The 1 1/16 may be more to SS's liking against MG.

    Also on the card will be the Oaklawn Handicap:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1436931
    Express Train has been running very well.

    Here's an article on Pletcher's surviving Derby Contenders:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...up_overall_123

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  9. #89

    Belmont Incentive for.. Japan

    Here is an interesting item:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...sed_horses_123

    If you have a 3YO that raced at least 3 times in Japan, and s/he's eligible to the Triple Crown in the USA, and wins the Belmont Stakes, you get a $1M bonus.
    What?

    Why is Belmont offering this?
    Why Japan over, let's say all of the horses in the UK, UAE/Dubai, etc.. ?

    Yes, there are a lot of well bred (U.S. pedigree) horses in Japan, but why attempt to coax them here?
    There is plenty of big money in the Far East?

    Win the Belmont and Bonus and stay for the Saratoga sale?

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  10. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Some tasty horse stuff for you:

    The big ticket horse race this weekend will be the Apple Blossom this weekend at Oaklawn Park:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1756249
    This race will pit the great Monomoy Girl against the equally fantastic Swiss Skydiver.
    Monomoy Girl who won the last two BC Mare races and Eclipse awards for top Mare.
    Swiss Skydiver who won last year's Preakness and Alabama Stakes, and the Eclipse award for 3YO filly.
    SS lost to Monomoy Girl in the BC Mare race 5 months ago, by 8 lengths. But as we all know, 3YOs do a lot of growing as they become 4YOs and SS had a grueling campaign. The 1 1/16 may be more to SS's liking against MG.

    Also on the card will be the Oaklawn Handicap:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1436931
    Express Train has been running very well.

    Here's an article on Pletcher's surviving Derby Contenders:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...up_overall_123

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    I can forgive Swiss Skydiver as she stumbled at the start of the Breederís Cup race. Todd on TVG says she was a tired horse. Others disagree. Clearly if you stumble at the start you wonít beat Monomoy Girl. This could be one of the best races this spring, or maybe the entire year. I wish I could be at Oaklawn tomorrow. Expecting sunshine after todayís rain. Whereas the boys retire early, it is great to see such wonderful horses continue to race.

  11. #91
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    I can forgive Swiss Skydiver as she stumbled at the start of the Breederís Cup race. Todd on TVG says she was a tired horse. Others disagree. Clearly if you stumble at the start you wonít beat Monomoy Girl. This could be one of the best races this spring, or maybe the entire year. I wish I could be at Oaklawn tomorrow. Expecting sunshine after todayís rain. Whereas the boys retire early, it is great to see such wonderful horses continue to race.
    Where Monomoy Girl will strictly stay in her lane with the mares, the connections of Swiss Skydiver have shown that they are just fine racing against any open company. There is lots of good money, against lesser competition, against the boys for SS. Some tracks might have shorter tracks and be speed favoring. It isn't obvious if they will be going for the money or for an Eclipse Award. She is a very handy filly who could have a real following if they play 'her' cards right. Not Zenyatta level fan frenzy, but maybe tee-shirts.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  12. #92
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Some tasty horse stuff for you:

    The big ticket horse race this weekend will be the Apple Blossom this weekend at Oaklawn Park:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1756249
    This race will pit the great Monomoy Girl against the equally fantastic Swiss Skydiver.
    Monomoy Girl who won the last two BC Mare races and Eclipse awards for top Mare.
    Swiss Skydiver who won last year's Preakness and Alabama Stakes, and the Eclipse award for 3YO filly.
    SS lost to Monomoy Girl in the BC Mare race 5 months ago, by 8 lengths. But as we all know, 3YOs do a lot of growing as they become 4YOs and SS had a grueling campaign. The 1 1/16 may be more to SS's liking against MG.

    Also on the card will be the Oaklawn Handicap:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1436931
    Express Train has been running very well.

    Here's an article on Pletcher's surviving Derby Contenders:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...up_overall_123

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Miler/Sprinter/Frontrunner Letruska beats the big girls in the Apple Blossom:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Of course, catching Swiss Skydiver and Monomoy Girl on their first race of the year may have been the key, but full credit to Letruska on her first Grade I win.
    The Beyer for Monomoy Girl was 102, which was her 2nd highest ever; took a great race to beat her. SS was not up to it (yet).
    Letruska's sire Super Saver, who won the KYD in the mud, and is a great mud sire, is more than a mud sire.

    Silver State is in great form and won the Oaklawn Handicap. 5 horses were right there with a furlong to go, and he was the best of them.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  13. #93

    Did You Catch Midnight Bourbon This Morning?

    Hey, did you catch Midnight Bourbon this morning?
    https://twitter.com/DRFLivingston/st...48023882575875

    No really. You could have caught him. He got loose in the paddock area.
    Not good. But it happens.

    I was watching one of my horse's handlers, who was giving him some grass in a field one day. All was fine. The horse was recovering from a non-displaced fracture. The lead shank broke when the horse reared up (which they do from time to time). The horse paced off at about 30mph and turned toward a bunch of fenced paddocks and was cornered (I'm mindful that Olympic 100 meter sprinters only run at about 22mph, and I'm not nearly that fast for that far as I pursued him). If he made a right hand turn, he would have been on a 2-lane main road. These things happen. Bought a nice new lead shank later that day Started training the colt that monday; no limp was noticed.. good to go.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  14. #94

    Cezanne

    Very nice win by the lightly raced (this is the 4th start), and very expensive ($3.65M), 4YOC Cezanne out of the Baffert barn in yesterday's Kona Gold Stakes at Santa Anita. Cezanne only lost once in last year's Shared Belief.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Here is a video of the race.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1383934199455883269
    There were only 4 in there, but this was a dominating performance and received a 106 Beyer.
    Brickyard Ride is a good horse.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  15. #95
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Miler/Sprinter/Frontrunner Letruska beats the big girls in the Apple Blossom:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Of course, catching Swiss Skydiver and Monomoy Girl on their first race of the year may have been the key, but full credit to Letruska on her first Grade I win.
    The Beyer for Monomoy Girl was 102, which was her 2nd highest ever; took a great race to beat her. SS was not up to it (yet).
    Letruska's sire Super Saver, who won the KYD in the mud, and is a great mud sire, is more than a mud sire.

    Silver State is in great form and won the Oaklawn Handicap. 5 horses were right there with a furlong to go, and he was the best of them.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    I was reminded that Monomoy Girl sold for $9.5 million. Will it be possible to recoup that investment? How many foals does a broodmare customarily produce? I know she could still win a few more million at the track, but it seems highly unlikely to me, who admittedly knows little on this subject, that she will have a positive ROI. One other question, has a truly great female racehorse ever had a champion offspring? Obviously it works for the boys since they get bred hundreds of times, but seems unlikely for the girls.

    By the way if you box trifectas the Silver State race at Oaklawn produced a $29.45. payout for what was an obvious choice. On the girlís race you just broke even. Covid has made me a better handicapper, but Iím still a crappy better.

    Im not sure how many Dukies play the ponies, but I enjoy your posts. My initiation to horse racing was when i attended UK law school after Duke. One of my best friends in law school was a fantastic handicapper. He got me a forty to one shot in the last race at Keeneland one day when I was down to about my last $2.00. I was hooked, but had other priorities over the next forty years. I continued to watch the big races, but drove 200 miles to the track maybe once a year. I then retired in late 2019, Covid hit and I reconnected through TVG although oddly TVG isnít licensed in my new home state of Tennessee, but TwinSpires is, so there you go.

    Im looking forward to your pre Oaks and Derby analyses next week. Thanks for knowledge and insight.

  16. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    I was reminded that Monomoy Girl sold for $9.5 million. Will it be possible to recoup that investment? How many foals does a broodmare customarily produce? I know she could still win a few more million at the track, but it seems highly unlikely to me, who admittedly knows little on this subject, that she will have a positive ROI. One other question, has a truly great female racehorse ever had a champion offspring? Obviously it works for the boys since they get bred hundreds of times, but seems unlikely for the girls.

    By the way if you box trifectas the Silver State race at Oaklawn produced a $29.45. payout for what was an obvious choice. On the girl’s race you just broke even. Covid has made me a better handicapper, but I’m still a crappy better.

    Im not sure how many Dukies play the ponies, but I enjoy your posts. My initiation to horse racing was when i attended UK law school after Duke. One of my best friends in law school was a fantastic handicapper. He got me a forty to one shot in the last race at Keeneland one day when I was down to about my last $2.00. I was hooked, but had other priorities over the next forty years. I continued to watch the big races, but drove 200 miles to the track maybe once a year. I then retired in late 2019, Covid hit and I reconnected through TVG although oddly TVG isn’t licensed in my new home state of Tennessee, but TwinSpires is, so there you go.

    Im looking forward to your pre Oaks and Derby analyses next week. Thanks for knowledge and insight.
    It is not obvious if the people who bought Monomoy Girl will be keeping the offspring or selling them at auction. No doubt MG is insured, costing a lot for every start! I doubt that they will be making money back with the profits from racing the offspring as you so rightly pointed out. There are SO few offspring of great race mares that became great on the race track. One that comes to mind was Miesque; a double BC Mile winner threw Kingmambo as her first foal. He was a $700k winner and even better sire. Remaining foals were not as good, but I'm sure they sold for a ton. Even the barely passable sons of great race mares are awarded with stud careers just because of their mommies; so they become earners after the owners (perhaps) buy them at auction (see Genuine Reward son of Genuine Risk). I've mentioned that Rachel Alexandra's 2 progeny have been very above average. Zenyatta's have not (she has 4, 3 or racing age, the best of which, Ziconic won $70K). Winning Colors produced mostly mares, the only worthy note is that she is the great grand dam of an Alabama winner. But Hopespringseternal. Although I will mention an exception here, the REGALLY bred Personal Ensign, from the wealthy Phipps family, was destined not to have any of her foals ever sold. She was a tremendous producer. She produced Miner's Mark (sire and $900K), My Flag (BC winner and $1M, dam of Storm Flag Flying), 3 other $100k winners. [somewhere above I think I answered at least 2 champions of champions in Bold].

    My first attendance at any track was in the summer of 1974 at Monticello Raceway, after a Jay and The Americans concert (I was a camp counselor that summer). My first thoroughbred attendance was July 6, 1975; the local OTB was handing out HIM/HER buttons and we went to Belmont to see the Ruffian/Foolish Pleasure Match Race. What a striking memory that was. I was an undergraduate in upstate New York, and before I started my last year in 1977, I attended closing day at Saratoga. They were running the Hopeful that day and I watched Affirmed beat Alydar. I saw Alydar lose 2 more times in person (Remsen at Aqueduct [yes, I bet Believe It], and the Belmont [Front row seats in the Mezzanine and pictures of the stretch taken on my Instamatic; I think Cauthen was waving at me with a stick].

    In a year and change, I was at Duke in graduate school. After a grueling Electricity and Magnetism Test, my buddy and I drove up to Washington DC for the Laurel Futurity so I could see this dashing 2YO chestnut Secretariat colt named General Assembly. I saw him, but he was mashed by beautiful silver bullet named Spectacular Bid. I think Clever Trick was in that race.

    I appreciate your participation in this forum. I'd like to hear about other's experiences and opinions.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  17. #97

    Kentucky Derby Contender Videos

    Below is a link on the kentuckyderby.com website that goes to an ongoing listing of recent workouts by state-side contenders for the KYD:
    https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/video-center

    Of course, it may be missing some of the horses who might find themselves in "the field", or who might be coming from overseas. And we won't know who is running till the Wednesday before the race.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  18. #98
    Just to wet your appetite, here is a set of Past Performances for the likely contenders for the KYD that is only 8 days away:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/co...rformances_pps
    A couple of horses that might get some play, if they get in, are Sainthood and O'Besos (not to be confused with Bezos).

    There aren't many big or interesting stakes races this weekend. While looking through the docket, I did find one item that caught my eye.
    The William Walker Stakes at Churchill Downs on Saturday:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1218663

    Before looking at the PPs, I'm reminded of the now deceased physicist William Walker, who spent much of his career at Duke:
    https://physics.duke.edu/about/histo...lliam-d-walker
    Dr. Walker was one of the most accomplished physicists at Duke when I arrived and always seemed to be moving through the building with a purpose (with a brief case when brief cases were in vogue). My lab was along a hall that he passed by each day and over a few years I would actually get a nod. His wife Connie Kalbach was more congenial earlier in my career, and she would say hi. I did have several short but friendly conversations with WW in my later years at Duke, which was nice. I didn't realize he had worked with Feynman, who is of course a physics Rock Star. Dr. Goshaw, who is mentioned in the biography, is a very nice man and is still at Duke in the Department. But of course, that is a different William Walker being commemorated in this race tomorrow than our Duke William Walker. WW was just one of several big contributors to High Energy Physics who passed through Duke and helped to confirm or build the Standard Model (if you like such things).

    But I digress..

    As for the race, I noticed an interesting participant Roderick. When Roderick broke his maiden by 8 last June, I thought thought this colt, who cost half a million, was one to watch. Out of Into Mischief, he had the goods. A good trainer too. But then he fell apart at Del Mar and still has not earned $100k. Tough game. And why is he back on the turf. It is worth a try. The favorite in here, Cowan, likes the turf, and should lay over this field, but he is coming back from the Desert last month; that is grueling. Often I see a horse race once and take 2 months off before racing. This horse races twice and takes one month off. It was profitable ($300k), but was it exhausting?

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  19. #99
    Found an interesting horse in an interesting place.

    My eyes lit up when I saw Sleepy Eyes Todd in a place called Fonner Park (I don't know where that is). Sleepy Eyes Todd has appeared as an also ran in a number of big races, so I know who he is. He was in Dubai, and had a great view of the end of the 3 biggest purse races of the year, and gotten a check in 2 of them. Enough to have earned $1.1M, but has barely been within 10 lengths of the winner.

    Here are the PPs:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1273230

    So he is in for a $75K race today. Perhaps this is the greatest son of Paddy O'Prado, who I remembered being a top grass horse. PoP actually finished 3rd, in the slop, to Super Saver in the Kentucky Derby, so he has dirt cred. But today, his rich son is in against a few decent horses, but not the Grade I fare he has been seeing. It should be a walk-over if he doesn't suffer the hang-over that horses that travel back from Dubai usually get. A very interesting race. He will probably be 1:20 with Bridge Jumpers everywhere if the pools allow it.

    Late Edit: Apparently Fonner Park is in Nebraska. Ak-Sar-Ben, where for art thou?

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 04-24-2021 at 11:08 AM.

  20. #100

    Why Are You Reading This?

    Why are you reading this forum?

    Perhaps you are a one race, casual horse fan who is interested in the Kentucky Derby? Perhaps 2 races if you add the Breeder's Cup Classic.

    I started this forum as an extension of folks who were interested in following Bob Hurley's horse career (that went kaput, but not without putting some really good horses out into the mix).

    Your eyeballs are appreciated (we do get clicks).

    I like good horses of any breed. I especially like following their careers from start to finish, so I can watch the arc of their triumphs and defeats. I remember hearing about the initial brilliance of Seattle Slew and go on that train as he was a 2YO. I was rooting for Lady's Secret as she jousted with Mom's Command and struggled with her own shortcomings as a 2YO; her will did not match her talent at the time (but she grew).

    But there are good horses that will NOT make the Kentucky Derby that come along each year that will make their mark.

    In 1975, the winner of the Kentucky Derby was Foolish Pleasure. The Preakness.. Master Derby. The Belmont .. Avatar (with Willie Shoemaker). Perhaps the most memorable 3YO was Ruffian. But who was the 3YO Eclipse award champion Colt? A late developing Colt named Wajima.

    Arrogate didn't make the triple crown races. But starting with the Travers, he put together several months of the greatest races ever seen on the race track and is today the greatest earner of money ever for a race horse (perhaps not in adjusted earnings).

    So, from my perspective, a great horse can appear anytime, starting as a 2YO. Sure, it is wonderful if they race for a full career, but let's try to catch them at the start.

    Sometimes we get a glimpse and they get injured, like Nadal last year. Sometimes we see a little more, like Danzig's 6 race undefeated streak.

    So how do we evaluate this?
    https://twitter.com/TVG/status/1386098306091159552

    John Sadler introduced us to a 3YO Flightline yesterday at Santa Anita. This colt cost $1M, so he wasn't Seattle Slew unknown, but he wasn't a Bob Baffert Bullet either.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    A 1:08 3/5 was worthy of a 105 Beyer in his first time out on a race track. Wow. That might be a record if they keep such things. Alas, Flightline will miss the Kentucky Derby for his generation.

    We'll keep an eye on this one as he progresses.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

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