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  1. #41

    News, Racing, and PPs

    OK, Let's set the stage, the Southwest Stakes, with some of the big names, will NOT be run this Monday as originally intended. One of the big weekend storms in the center of the country is causing enough concern over track conditions that they will move the race to the following Saturday, Feb. 20th. This also goes for the Arkansas Handicap and a few other big races. Read about it here:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...re_weather_123
    It is probably early enough in the season that it will not affect the plans for the big horses, but them's the breaks when you are limiting your horse to only 2 or 3 starts before the KYD. You don't leave yourself much margin for error.
    Thoroughbreds are allowed to enter into multiple races at the same time. The plus is they have options; the minus is that they may have to make multiple stakes payments. The actual entry in a race is not permitted in racing of other breeds, like Standardbred racing, because your racing papers have to be in the office where you are entered. Since your papers can't be two places at once, you only get to enter one place at a time. An exception is made when you are an Also Eligible (AE).

    The big race of the weekend for 3YOs will be the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1839110
    Two of the generations top 10 horses are entered: Mandaloun and Keepmeinmind (who is cross entered in the Southwest Stakes). Also of note is the upstart Midnight Bourbon (who won the LeComte here 4 weeks ago) and the mystery horse Senor Buscador (who is off Lasix, shows a huge kick [great for the Fair Grounds] but who did he beat?). 50 KYD Points to the winner!

    The El Camino Real will be run at Golden Gate Fields. Not the biggest source of derby horses, but you'll usually get 1 or 2 entrants into the Santa Anita Derby.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1147928
    You have a couple of hopefuls out of good stables in here.
    Rombauer finished 5th in the BC Juvenile, and is making his first start this year.
    Petruchio finished 3rd behind Spielberg (OK, that is no endorsement); but his jockey is named Irving (that's a winner in my book).


    The Mineshaft gives you older horses:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1414700
    This includes Maxfield, Enforceable, and Wells Bayou (cross-entered).
    This will be a good race!!

    The Rachel Alexandra will not be as good as its namesake, for 3YO Fillies.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1697640
    Travel Column, a gray Frosted filly, looks good and looks good.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  2. #42
    Just a few notes:

    I should have mentioned in the above note that the Mineshaft and Rachel Alexandra Stakes are at the Fair Grounds, if it wasn't obvious.

    Here is an article on Senor Buscador, [in to go in the Risen Star] who is not a horse that you would expect to see. His breeding is minor as far as major 3YO stakes are concerned. Interesting that he is running at the Fair Grounds on a day when his sire has a stakes named after him (Mineshaft). Mineshaft is most interesting. He did not race at 2. He started on the turf in the UK and only won a maiden race in 7 starts there. So he was brought to the US and was raced on the dirt where he was first or second in his 11 races here in the US. This includes winning 5 of 6 Grade 1 races as a 4YO. That is quite something. So he would seem to be a late developer [or maybe he really didn't like the turf], and you would expect his foals to develop over time as well; he has sired Grade 1 winners (e.g., Effinex), but no Classic winners. He is a full brother to Tomisue's Delight. Senor Buscador's dam, Rose's Desert, produced 3 other foals, all winners, 2 of which are $100k winners. Rose's Desert's breeding is humble pie. The dam is a non-winner and earned only $3k. Senor Buscador comes from an obviously live prong of this female family. His trainer is essentially unknown and trains in a corner of New Mexico and has to travel to get to any worthwhile Graded Stakes. We love stories like this. I don't have a clue why he started on Lasix, other than that might be a habit for some trainers. Time will tell for this lunch pail horse.

    https://www.drf.com/news/southwest-h...dor-risen-star

    At the bottom of the above article, it is mentioned that Defeater is out of the Risen Star and is running in an Allowance Race on the undercard. I had flagged him as a horse to watch based on a spiffy maiden win.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1131760

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    OK, Let's set the stage, the Southwest Stakes, with some of the big names, will NOT be run this Monday as originally intended. One of the big weekend storms in the center of the country is causing enough concern over track conditions that they will move the race to the following Saturday, Feb. 20th. This also goes for the Arkansas Handicap and a few other big races. Read about it here:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...re_weather_123
    It is probably early enough in the season that it will not affect the plans for the big horses, but them's the breaks when you are limiting your horse to only 2 or 3 starts before the KYD. You don't leave yourself much margin for error.
    Thoroughbreds are allowed to enter into multiple races at the same time. The plus is they have options; the minus is that they may have to make multiple stakes payments. The actual entry in a race is not permitted in racing of other breeds, like Standardbred racing, because your racing papers have to be in the office where you are entered. Since your papers can't be two places at once, you only get to enter one place at a time. An exception is made when you are an Also Eligible (AE).

    The big race of the weekend for 3YOs will be the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1839110
    Two of the generations top 10 horses are entered: Mandaloun and Keepmeinmind (who is cross entered in the Southwest Stakes). Also of note is the upstart Midnight Bourbon (who won the LeComte here 4 weeks ago) and the mystery horse Senor Buscador (who is off Lasix, shows a huge kick [great for the Fair Grounds] but who did he beat?). 50 KYD Points to the winner!

    The El Camino Real will be run at Golden Gate Fields. Not the biggest source of derby horses, but you'll usually get 1 or 2 entrants into the Santa Anita Derby.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1147928
    You have a couple of hopefuls out of good stables in here.
    Rombauer finished 5th in the BC Juvenile, and is making his first start this year.
    Petruchio finished 3rd behind Spielberg (OK, that is no endorsement); but his jockey is named Irving (that's a winner in my book).


    The Mineshaft gives you older horses:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1414700
    This includes Maxfield, Enforceable, and Wells Bayou (cross-entered).
    This will be a good race!!

    The Rachel Alexandra will not be as good as its namesake, for 3YO Fillies.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1697640
    Travel Column, a gray Frosted filly, looks good and looks good.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    In the Risen Star, race favorite Mandaloun stalked the pace and made a move in the stretch to win over Proxy and Midnight Bourbon. Proxy and Midnight Bourbon both finished in the top 3 in the LeCompt. Senor Buscador had a slow start (again) but in this higher quality field, was unable to get closer than 6 lengths; he may have the ability (he showed quite a close) but needs to be in the race. Mandaloun is a son of Into Mischief. Keepmeinmind was scratched; look for him in next Saturday's Southwest Stakes. Mandaloun received a 98 Beyer.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    In the El Camino Real, Rombauer left the gate dead last, and was able to track down a game filly, Javanica, in the final strides. This was not the strongest field, so the results should be considered as such, but it was Rombauer's first time out since the BC Juvenile.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Here is the stretch run:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1360754575993528326

    Maxfield jumped in the gate as the field for the Mineshaft left (no doubt causing the hearts of the favorite's backers to jump too). But Maxfield recovered to win in a confident recovery on the far turn, and pull away in the stretch. He's good! Maxfield ran a 99 Beyer.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Defeater also had a slow (last) start, worked his way through the field and finished a strong 2nd. Look for him next in Stakes company. He is good!
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Clairiere won the Rachel Alexandra:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Oh, and I noticed that Mischievious Alex won the Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship.. easily!

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  4. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    In the Risen Star, race favorite Mandaloun stalked the pace and made a move in the stretch to win over Proxy and Midnight Bourbon. Proxy and Midnight Bourbon both finished in the top 3 in the LeCompt. Senor Buscador had a slow start (again) but in this higher quality field, was unable to get closer than 6 lengths; he may have the ability (he showed quite a close) but needs to be in the race. Mandaloun is a son of Into Mischief. Keepmeinmind was scratched; look for him in next Saturday's Southwest Stakes. Mandaloun received a 98 Beyer.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    In the El Camino Real, Rombauer left the gate dead last, and was able to track down a game filly, Javanica, in the final strides. This was not the strongest field, so the results should be considered as such, but it was Rombauer's first time out since the BC Juvenile.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Here is the stretch run:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1360754575993528326

    Maxfield jumped in the gate as the field for the Mineshaft left (no doubt causing the hearts of the favorite's backers to jump too). But Maxfield recovered to win in a confident recovery on the far turn, and pull away in the stretch. He's good! Maxfield ran a 99 Beyer.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Defeater also had a slow (last) start, worked his way through the field and finished a strong 2nd. Look for him next in Stakes company. He is good!
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Clairiere won the Rachel Alexandra:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Oh, and I noticed that Mischievious Alex won the Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship.. easily!

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Keep up the good work. I loved the comments on the Dosage theory. That used to be almost biblical in ruling out horses for the Derby. Glad itís finally been put to rest. I always hated having to forego great looking horses because of that theory, but it worked back in the day. Iím still in a Covid funk, the weather sucks, and I am having a hard time getting back into racing. Then I bet Midnight Bourbon, when everything about Mandaloun supports him being favored. I skipped betting Maxfiled because of low odds, when he was my favorite to win the Derby, before all his injury issues. At least it seems to me I see less horse injuries on the track than I did 50 years ago. Iím thankful for that. Now if we could just get some nice weather at Oaklawn and Fair Grounds everything will be better. Back to Maxfield, if he stays healthy I think he will be the top older horse this year. Bad start, no problem circle field and mow em down.

    One other comment. It seems to me, with the exception of Baffert horses, the other California horses come East and do nothing. I almost never bet on a horse shipping in from California to the better tracks East of Oklahoma. (I couldnít say Mississippi River because of Oaklawn, and Iím not sure if Fairgrounds is East or west of the river flowing through New Orleans.)

  5. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    Keep up the good work. I loved the comments on the Dosage theory. That used to be almost biblical in ruling out horses for the Derby. Glad it’s finally been put to rest. I always hated having to forego great looking horses because of that theory, but it worked back in the day. I’m still in a Covid funk, the weather sucks, and I am having a hard time getting back into racing. Then I bet Midnight Bourbon, when everything about Mandaloun supports him being favored. I skipped betting Maxfiled because of low odds, when he was my favorite to win the Derby, before all his injury issues. At least it seems to me I see less horse injuries on the track than I did 50 years ago. I’m thankful for that. Now if we could just get some nice weather at Oaklawn and Fair Grounds everything will be better. Back to Maxfield, if he stays healthy I think he will be the top older horse this year. Bad start, no problem circle field and mow em down.

    One other comment. It seems to me, with the exception of Baffert horses, the other California horses come East and do nothing. I almost never bet on a horse shipping in from California to the better tracks East of Oklahoma. (I couldn’t say Mississippi River because of Oaklawn, and I’m not sure if Fairgrounds is East or west of the river flowing through New Orleans.)
    ... having to forego great looking... I see what you did there

    Dosage is still a valuable tool for breeding and handicapping. It just isn't dogma anymore. It won't prevent someone from entering a horse in the KYD (fortunately) and it will allow people to breed all kinds of horses that are outside the box. Good for population diversity. I'm sure there are many horses around the world who could care less about Dosage since they could care less about the KYD, and they bred great horses.

    A comment was made on the broadcast yesterday that Maxfield may have been the best 3YO in his generation last year. (sorry Devilwin) Of course we'll never know. But not racing for most of your 2YO and 3YO year will avoid much wear and tear. Racing once every 2 months will do the same, although the level of race fitness may not be there. Right now, I'd say it is a great time to be a decent to mediocre male Handicap horse.

    Interesting comment about Baffert. But I've noticed the following.. There are a few other trainers that appear in California. Doug O'Neill (Nyquist), Pete Miller, and John Sadler get better and better racing stock, as does Matt Glatt who does not yet have a national reputation (but is getting good horses and may soon pop one).

    Thank you for those comments. Others are invited to chime in. I can hear you nayying.

    There are smaller races happening all over, with lesser horses all the time. I thought about alerting folks to today's Gander Stakes at Aqueduct ($100K for 3YO) but there was plenty of news from yesterday. But there is much interesting news to come out of there. A new contender.
    Does Nicky The Vest sound like a New York horse or what? He pulverized a nice field of 3YOC, on a raw day, by 12 lengths. This was a good field. He just pulled away in the stretch in his 2nd lifetime start. He never saw the rail, which was golden today. So he was against the bias:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Nicky The Vest could be pointed toward the Bay Shore in 3 weeks or the Wood Memorial if he gets on the derby trail in NY, but he definitely stakes caliber.

    What's more, rumors of Runhappy's demise as a sire it appears have been greatly exaggerated. Runhappy is tied with 3 other stallions for the most wins of the 2nd season stallions. That's right. Last year's over publicized apparent failure (any win at Belmont, Saratoga, or Del Mar wins $100K!!) has turned into a late maturing wonder. Of these 4 leading sires, Runhappy has the fewest runners, so he is doing well. Nicky The Vest is by Runhappy!!
    Let's all remember that Secretariat had a dismal 1st and 2nd crop as a sire, and it wasn't till his 3rd crop that he exploded on the scene with 6 stake winners and became the leading 2YO sire by money won. The 3rd Crop included: General Assembly (Travers winner), Terlingua (dam of Storm Cat), and Six Crowns (dam of Chief's Crown).

    Just as a funny aside or two:

    1) Dosage changes (adding sires as dosage changes) is similar to the way the quark theory evolved in physics. Anytime an exception occurred to the quark theory, they added a new factor and set of particles. That is how charm, strangeness, truth, and beauty quark factors came to being. "The theory wasn't wrong, it just wasn't complete."

    2) Here's a story:

    You're Riding A Horse Full Speed,
    There's a Giraffe Next to you,
    And a Lion Chasing You.
    What do you do?

    Get your Drunk 'euphemism for donkey that rhymes with crasse'.
    Off the Carousel.
    (I suppose the drunk 'euphemism for donkey that rhymes with crasse' isn't a donkey)

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 02-14-2021 at 07:55 PM.

  6. #46
    This isn't the exciting week we were hoping for.

    The Southwest Stakes has been postponed again, along with the other Oaklawn races this week:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...to_weather_123

    To warm you up, next Friday is also the 2021 Saudi Cup.
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._Cup_track_123
    Charlatan against Knicks Go should be a Humdinger!!

    For this weekend, all I can offer is another high priced wannabee:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1147928
    Ghazaaly looks like he has a shot to break his maiden in his second start.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  7. #47

    Weekend Cleanup

    It seems that some periodicals gave an incorrect date for the Saudi Cup. It ran Saturday morning (I missed it). It was an exciting race. It was won by a longshot named Mishriff, who overtook Charlatan in the deep stretch to win:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._Saudi_Cup_123
    Here is the stretch drive:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1363182706792751108

    Mishriff is a british horse, from an irish sire, or US decent (the Seeking The Gold - Mr. Prospector line) out of a Gone West line mare.

    One of our high priced horses, that we keep an eye on, Ghazaaly, ran a winning race, but a longshot ran a better one:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    No shame losing to a $270k horse named Quantum Leap who makes a quantum leap in speed (at 22-1) his 3rd start; that's what young horses do.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  8. #48

    KYD Points for the Pointless

    OK, so raise your hand if you believe that any horse from Japan, who accrues KYD points in the Japanese races, will come here to race in the KYD. My belief is that sponsoring races with KYD points is a marketing attempt to get Kentucky thoroughbreds sold to foreign buyers at high prices. Not that the horses themselves don't attract buyers in and of themselves. Of course, some of our best horses are now at stud in Japan (e.g., California Chrome, Bricks and Mortar) and great horses may be produced there. But will they be shipped to the U.S.A. to run in our 3YO races? History suggests not. More than likely Japanese ownership of horses racing in the USA in the spring would go on to be in the KYD (e.g., A.P. Indy).

    In either event, the Hyacinth, at Tokyo Racecourse, was run on 2/21/2021, with 30 KYD points going to the winner La Perouse.
    https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...kentucky-derby

    Here is a youtube replay of the race:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A55htQA6D34

    La Perouse is a great grandson of imported super sire Sunday Silence and out of an Empire Maker mare. He has now won 4 of 6 starts (one 2nd).

    We'll see how he does in the Nakayama on March 27th.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  9. #49

    Friday 2/26- Saturday 2/27 Battaglia/ Southwest / Fountain Of Youth

    We are fully into the action toward the Run For The Roses as we have 3 races to look at this weekend (is Friday a weekend day?):

    On Friday, at Turfway Park, is the annual running of the John Battaglia Memorial for 3YOs:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=848820
    There are 10 KYD points to the winner of this race (always implied lesser points to the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishers).
    Gretzky The Great looks to be a contender, and hopes to score since he last appeared in the BC Juvenile Turf against Fire At Will (more on him later).
    Like The King has put in some good works at this track.
    Half of this field is not eligible to the Triple Crown, so this is not top competition.

    On Saturday, some of the big guns show themselves:

    At Oaklawn Park, the Southwest Stakes will (finally) take place:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1596590
    Essential Quality, the top rated 2YO, and now 3YOC, will make his seasonal debut against Jackie's Warrior, who was the favorite in the BC Juvenile race.
    Missing from that race will be Keepmeinmind, who was highly rated, but could not incorporate the 2 week delay in this race into his plans.
    Spielberg also appears to challenge the top ones. Will he rediscover his speed or continue to exhaust his owner's pocketbook?
    10 KYD points to the winner of this top flight competitive race.

    The last of our weekend races will be at Gulfstream Park in the Fountain of Youth:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=2008874
    Although this 50 KYD Points to the winner race does not have the 2YO Top Colt STAR POWER that the Southwest Stakes has, this might be a more interesting and competitive race. In this race are a host of colts that we, in this forum, have been tracking as top new shooters, that have displayed significant talent in their initial starts. They include:
    Drain the Clock - 4 time winner, undefeated, won the Swale Stakes at this track last time out. Super impressive. Has run only in sprints (this is 1 1/16); Dosage borderline at 4.0!
    Fire At Will - lost his maiden race, but won 3 straight since, including the BC Juv Turf. Won 1 race in the slop on dirt, otherwise a turf horse so far.
    Greatest Honour - Steadily improving colt, winning last 2 including his maiden, then the Holy Bull stakes at this track in eye popping fashion.
    Prime Factor - $900k Pletcher trainee who stalked the hot pace in the Holy Bull and held onto 3rd
    Tarantino - $610k yearling who finished 2nd in the Holy Bull.
    This looks like a real horse race; 3 of the top 10 horses and another of the top 20.

    Also on Saturday, at Gulfstream Park, is the Davona Dale for 3YO fillies:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1721892
    Vequist, the BC Juv Filly winner, makes her seasonal debut.

    On Saturday, at Oaklawn Park, the Razorback Handicap:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1117613
    This race has had some defections since it was first scripted 2 weeks ago.
    Owendale is left standing with Silver Prospector for $600k. Wow.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  10. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    We are fully into the action toward the Run For The Roses as we have 3 races to look at this weekend (is Friday a weekend day?):

    On Friday, at Turfway Park, is the annual running of the John Battaglia Memorial for 3YOs:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=848820
    There are 10 KYD points to the winner of this race (always implied lesser points to the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishers).
    Gretzky The Great looks to be a contender, and hopes to score since he last appeared in the BC Juvenile Turf against Fire At Will (more on him later).
    Like The King has put in some good works at this track.
    Half of this field is not eligible to the Triple Crown, so this is not top competition.
    Hush Of A Storm won the Battaglia, with a nice run in the stretch. But he didn't keep a straight path, causing an Objection (which was not upheld).
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Like The King finished second, with Gretzky The Great third.
    They all get points, but although several may try another Triple Crown qualifying race, it isn't a sure bet they are Triple Crown material yet.

    Today is the Southwest Stakes (I'm picking Jackie's Warrior over Essential Quality) and the Fountain Of Youth (Greatest Honour over Drain The Clock).

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  11. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    We are fully into the action toward the Run For The Roses as we have 3 races to look at this weekend (is Friday a weekend day?):


    On Saturday, some of the big guns show themselves:

    At Oaklawn Park, the Southwest Stakes will (finally) take place:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1596590
    Essential Quality, the top rated 2YO, and now 3YOC, will make his seasonal debut against Jackie's Warrior, who was the favorite in the BC Juvenile race.
    Missing from that race will be Keepmeinmind, who was highly rated, but could not incorporate the 2 week delay in this race into his plans.
    Spielberg also appears to challenge the top ones. Will he rediscover his speed or continue to exhaust his owner's pocketbook?
    10 KYD points to the winner of this top flight competitive race.

    The last of our weekend races will be at Gulfstream Park in the Fountain of Youth:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=2008874
    Although this 50 KYD Points to the winner race does not have the 2YO Top Colt STAR POWER that the Southwest Stakes has, this might be a more interesting and competitive race. In this race are a host of colts that we, in this forum, have been tracking as top new shooters, that have displayed significant talent in their initial starts. They include:
    Drain the Clock - 4 time winner, undefeated, won the Swale Stakes at this track last time out. Super impressive. Has run only in sprints (this is 1 1/16); Dosage borderline at 4.0!
    Fire At Will - lost his maiden race, but won 3 straight since, including the BC Juv Turf. Won 1 race in the slop on dirt, otherwise a turf horse so far.
    Greatest Honour - Steadily improving colt, winning last 2 including his maiden, then the Holy Bull stakes at this track in eye popping fashion.
    Prime Factor - $900k Pletcher trainee who stalked the hot pace in the Holy Bull and held onto 3rd
    Tarantino - $610k yearling who finished 2nd in the Holy Bull.
    This looks like a real horse race; 3 of the top 10 horses and another of the top 20.

    Also on Saturday, at Gulfstream Park, is the Davona Dale for 3YO fillies:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1721892
    Vequist, the BC Juv Filly winner, makes her seasonal debut.

    On Saturday, at Oaklawn Park, the Razorback Handicap:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1117613
    This race has had some defections since it was first scripted 2 weeks ago.
    Owendale is left standing with Silver Prospector for $600k. Wow.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    In the Southwest Stakes, Essential Quality re-established himself as the head of the division.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    He romped by 4.5 lengths. He also demonstrated that a sloppy track is no obstacle to this grey son of Tapit, who will make one more start before his day of destiny on the first saturday in May. Spielberg ran a creditable second with a fading Jackie's Warrior 3rd. A big 96 Beyer was awarded the winner.

    In the Fountain of Youth Stakes, Greatest Honour was 2nd to last at the start of the race, and did not look hurried. He worked his way through the field and put in a massive rally to win over the pace setting Drain The Clock. Your cold exacta was given to you earlier. An unimpressive 83 Beyer was given, but Greatest Honour had to overcome many obstacles and learned many lessons in this race.

    There are other talented 3YOs still on the Derby Trail, so this will be a very exciting set of races to come.

    The Davona Dale for 3YOF provided the real surprise of the day. Wholebodemeister won and paid $107.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    With a $572 exacta that can only be described by the name of the second place horse Crazy Beautiful.

    The Razorback Handicap was won by Mystic Guide:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    What can I say, it was a sloppy track. This horse liked the slop, he was the second favorite. Owendale was lost and never was comfortable. Silver Prospector did OK finishing second (he is a beautiful grey [Bet on the grey on a rainy day]). BTW Mystic Guide Beyer on the off track - 108, did he like that track!

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 02-28-2021 at 08:08 AM.

  12. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    In the Southwest Stakes, Essential Quality re-established himself as the head of the division.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    He romped by 4.5 lengths. He also demonstrated that a sloppy track is no obstacle to this grey son of Tapit, who will make one more start before his day of destiny on the first saturday in May. Spielberg ran a creditable second with a fading Jackie's Warrior 3rd. A big 96 Beyer was awarded the winner.

    In the Fountain of Youth Stakes, Greatest Honour was 2nd to last at the start of the race, and did not look hurried. He worked his way through the field and put in a massive rally to win over the pace setting Drain The Clock. Your cold exacta was given to you earlier. An unimpressive 83 Beyer was given, but Greatest Honour had to overcome many obstacles and learned many lessons in this race.

    There are other talented 3YOs still on the Derby Trail, so this will be a very exciting set of races to come.

    The Davona Dale for 3YOF provided the real surprise of the day. Wholebodemeister won and paid $107.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    With a $572 exacta that can only be described by the name of the second place horse Crazy Beautiful.

    The Razorback Handicap was won by Mystic Guide:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    What can I say, it was a sloppy track. This horse liked the slop, he was the second favorite. Owendale was lost and never was comfortable. Silver Prospector did OK finishing second (he is a beautiful grey [Bet on the grey on a rainy day]). BTW Mystic Guide Beyer on the off track - 108, did he like that track!

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    I know you have liked Jackieís Warrior over Essential Quality in the last two. Do you think Jackieís continues to pursue the Ky. Derby? He seems to me to be a one turn horse. Derby fever is a serious condition. Maybe they can blame a bad race track. I did bet Essential Quality in his last two, but he clearly had the better work pattern coming from Fair Grounds, so maybe thatís another excuse for Jackieí Warrior.

    I bet Vequist only to later kick my self in the rear. Vequist had in my opinion a bad work pattern, but I convinced myself to overlook it. Iím not sure what to make of her after a terrible performance.

    So whatís next on the race calendar? I keep hoping for Oaklawn to get some decent weather. I have to admit Miami is looking pretty good as far as the weather is concerned. And I believe Gulfstream did a 30 million handle without any fans.

  13. #53
    I forgot to mention, I saw a possible stakes caliber 3YOC break his maiden yesterday.
    Collaborate had beauty of a second start:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    He won by 12 lengths. He is a $600k son of Into Mischief.
    If you're wondering what his first start looked like, it wasn't so bad. He finished fifth by only 1 1/4, but was 7 back after a slow start, finishing between horses on a sloppy track, in a 6f race. He earned a 90 Beyer for his win at 1 mile. Nice..

    Trained by Joseph Saffie Jr., could he jump right into the Florida Derby? I wouldn't. perhaps a lower stakes and progress toward the Preakness or go through New York and the Peter Pan (much softer) and on to Saratoga. I'm really not keen on Into Mischief's in the Belmont; however, Easy Goer is his 3rd broodmare sire

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  14. #54
    Alexander Valley, expensive colt whom we've been following, finished 2nd by a neck yesterday, in a very good effort yesterday in a maiden race.
    He'll break his maiden soon, but he won't be in the KYD.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Monomoy Girl, perhaps the best horse of her generation, returned for her 6 year old season. She hasn't lost in almost 3 years (took 1 year off); taking on the best of her year.
    She won easily, returning 20% on her investors.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  15. #55
    A horse named Highland Avenue is taking the Dubai road to the roses:
    https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac..._medium=social
    One of these days, it might work.

    Kentucky Derby Future Pool 4 is out, for those who like to see combo PPs:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=606300

    Kentucky Oaks Future Pool 1 is out:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...204&param3=340

    This week we have:
    The Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct
    The San Felipe at Santa Anita, and
    The Tampa Bay Derby (I'll have to look up where that is being run)

    Find New Roads, a $950k pony we are following, runs on Thursday at the Fair Grounds:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1131760
    Gets Blinkers, and will need a big improvement (possible).

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  16. #56

    Gotham, San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby, and Maxfield

    Lots of action for Saturday March 6, for 3YOC's and other divisions:

    For 3YOC's

    The Gotham at Aqueduct:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1182285
    Highly Motivated makes his 3YO debut against Capo Kane and Freedom Fighter.
    Freedom Fighter, who we last saw getting collared by Concert Tour at Santa Anita tries the East Coast, so we can compare contingents.
    Interesting that Kendrick Carmouche takes an inferior horse for Doug O'Neil instead of two other horses that he recently won on. Unless O'Neil is promising a ride on one of his better colts (The Great One or Hot Rod Charlie), and they are not great horses by any stretch. Confusing choice if it was his. Kendrick is an up and coming jockey who we will be seeing in all of the big races in coming years.

    The San Felipe at Santa Anita:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1006458
    This looks like a grudge match between the top Baffert colts Life Is Good and Medina Spirit. The former won their last encounter, with Medina Spirit closing on Life Is Good who looked like he was coasting to victory. Baffert sent Medina Spirit to a win in the Robert Lewis since that race, so he has been busy and is tighter. Roman Centurian, who lost to Medina Spirit by only a neck, is also in the field, as is Doug O'Neil's The Great One, who had a smashing maiden win. You will get a price on Life Is Good.

    The Tampa Bay Derby will be run at Tampa Bay Park in Tampa Bay..:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1867404
    Candy Man Rocket won the Sam Davis and will be your favorite. He is a stalker and will (again) have Boca Boy to set the pace.
    Promise Keeper looks interesting; the Constitution colt broke his maiden in his second start with a very high Beyer.

    In other divisions:

    The Big Cap, the Santa Anita Handicap, for older horses will be run with Maxfield (not necessarily the favorite):
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1677430
    Maxfield will be facing some very good horses coming out of the Pegasus World Cup and San Pasqual.
    Independence Hall will be a load to deal with, as well as Express Train. Tizamagician will have to supply the early speed, but he could get loose on the lead; you have to be careful with horses of this quality that the race doesn't get too slow, or he can run away with it.

    3YO Fillies will have the Busher at Aqueduct:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=788190
    Mo Desserts and Miss Brazil look like top contenders.

    Modernist makes a re-appearance, last seen last summer, in Tampa Bay Challenge Handicap:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=848820

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  17. #57
    Here is Steve Haskin's view of the Top Twelve KYD horses (and more) from Secretariat.com:
    https://www.secretariat.com/derby-ra...nkings-week-7/

    Lots of good nuggets here. Sorry to hear Senor Buscador is off the Derby trail.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  18. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Lots of action for Saturday March 6, for 3YOC's and other divisions:

    For 3YOC's

    The Gotham at Aqueduct:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1182285
    Highly Motivated makes his 3YO debut against Capo Kane and Freedom Fighter.
    Freedom Fighter, who we last saw getting collared by Concert Tour at Santa Anita tries the East Coast, so we can compare contingents.
    Interesting that Kendrick Carmouche takes an inferior horse for Doug O'Neil instead of two other horses that he recently won on. Unless O'Neil is promising a ride on one of his better colts (The Great One or Hot Rod Charlie), and they are not great horses by any stretch. Confusing choice if it was his. Kendrick is an up and coming jockey who we will be seeing in all of the big races in coming years.

    The San Felipe at Santa Anita:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1006458
    This looks like a grudge match between the top Baffert colts Life Is Good and Medina Spirit. The former won their last encounter, with Medina Spirit closing on Life Is Good who looked like he was coasting to victory. Baffert sent Medina Spirit to a win in the Robert Lewis since that race, so he has been busy and is tighter. Roman Centurian, who lost to Medina Spirit by only a neck, is also in the field, as is Doug O'Neil's The Great One, who had a smashing maiden win. You will get a price on Life Is Good.

    The Tampa Bay Derby will be run at Tampa Bay Park in Tampa Bay..:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1867404
    Candy Man Rocket won the Sam Davis and will be your favorite. He is a stalker and will (again) have Boca Boy to set the pace.
    Promise Keeper looks interesting; the Constitution colt broke his maiden in his second start with a very high Beyer.

    In other divisions:

    The Big Cap, the Santa Anita Handicap, for older horses will be run with Maxfield (not necessarily the favorite):
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1677430
    Maxfield will be facing some very good horses coming out of the Pegasus World Cup and San Pasqual.
    Independence Hall will be a load to deal with, as well as Express Train. Tizamagician will have to supply the early speed, but he could get loose on the lead; you have to be careful with horses of this quality that the race doesn't get too slow, or he can run away with it.

    3YO Fillies will have the Busher at Aqueduct:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=788190
    Mo Desserts and Miss Brazil look like top contenders.

    Modernist makes a re-appearance, last seen last summer, in Tampa Bay Challenge Handicap:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=848820

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Lotta stuff from yesterday:

    The big headline is of course the lights out performance by Life Is Good in the San Felipe:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    This colt went to the front and did not look back. Once he established a lead, it kept on widening. The only complaint (and it was small) was that he didn't maintain his lane in the stretch. A common occurrence with green horses; this was only this horse's 3rd start.
    Enjoy this replay of Life Is Good coming into the stretch.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1368334186021597186
    Medina Spirit could be seen in the rear view mirror, second. Estimated that the Beyer will be in the low '90s.
    Of course, be excited for this horse, but although he was about 1.5 seconds faster than Authentic's win in this race last year, he was 2 seconds slower than California Chrome's win. Just some perspective. Still, a great win, and oh so easy.

    At the Big A, Weyburn won at 46-1. This horse is not nominated to the Triple Crown, but can be supplemented.
    It was a bit of a raw day, and Weyburn was neck and neck, in the stretch with Crowded Trade.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    But I still think the best horse in the field is still the third place horse Highly Motivated who was making his first start in 6 months; HM got out of the gate slowly and came on in the stretch. He will improve most of all off of this effort.

    In the Tampa Bay Derby, Helium, a 15-1 shot, won, on a track labeled fast, but had a lot of moisture in it. Favorite Candy Man Rocket was 3rd at the head of stretch, but had nothing left.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    I think that conspicuous in all 3 of the pedigrees of the KYD prep races is A.P. Indy. Call him a Chef de Race, or whatever, but he increasingly appears in pedigrees of classic contenders. He will assure that Seattle Slew and Secretariat will be appearing in championship pedigrees for years to come.

    In other races:

    In the Santa Anita Handicap, Idol, a lightly raced son of Curlin (out of an A.P. Indy mare) won in a come from behind effort over Express Train and Maxfield.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Maxfield had a clear shot at the lead in the stretch, but did not fire.

    In the Busher, for 3YO fillies, Search Results stalked the pace and took over for a nice win.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Last Judgement beat Modernist in the Challenger at Tampa Bay, but I think Modernist will do well in upcoming efforts.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  19. #59
    I know you all have been waiting to hear...

    Find New Roads was scratched from his race on Thursday, which is why I did not report his results. I think he is pointing toward another race as he had a workout on Saturday. But you'll have to hold your horses on seeing this steed again.

    Beautiful Gift won the Santa Ysabel at Santa Anita (are there any "Santa" races [other than Santa Claus] not at Santa Anita, in the USA?) beating odds-on favorite Kalypso who could not handle setting the pace:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    A few Beyers from Saturday:

    95 - Weyburn - Gotham Stakes
    84 - Helium - Tampa Bay Derby
    107 - Life Is Good - San Felipe # Wow

    Here is Weyburn's stretch battle in the Gotham:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1368324320741691403

    Helium will not race again till the KYD. I think these owners are fooling themselves because they had some luck. But it is their prerogative.

    97 -Idol (who beat Maxfield in the Big Cap)

    Here is a review of the Santa Anita big races:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/bl...elipe_romp_123


    Now and then, you catch the family members of the Trainers/Owners on camera. Christina Blacker, who is a west coast TVG announcer, is the wife of Dan Blacker (Trainer). He trainer Hit The Road for his first Grade I win on Saturday, by a head threading the needle on the inside, in the Kilroe Mile at Santa Anita Saturday, in a thrilling race. But Christina was caught on camera while watching:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1368362513490792448Being in a position to be this way makes it a great game.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 03-08-2021 at 11:03 AM.

  20. #60
    Perhaps something to get your mind off of the COVID-19 second season killer.

    One of the top colts popping up in one of those apparent made for starter races.
    Prevalence (can't they spell Perseverance right), who had a big maiden win, is set to make his second start at Gulfstream, Race 8 on Thursday 3/11:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1147928
    This is an optional claimer, with at least on worthy horse in there.
    Prevalence broke his maiden by 8.5 with a 94 Beyer.
    There is another colt who won by 4 3/4 in his only outing with an 88 Beyer.

    But opportunities to get KYD points are running out. Perhaps they are looking at the Preakness.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

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