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  1. #341
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Rarely does a day of racing meet up with the hype, but yesterday had some GREAT racing, some things they will talk about for years.

    In Race 2 at Saratoga, Jack Christopher stamped himself as a horse to watch with a 92 Beyer:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    He exploded in the stretch for an 8 length win. 92 Beyer for Jack Christopher!

    In the Ballerina Stakes (Race 7), the winner, as predicted was Gamine:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    But the margin of victory was ONLY 1.75 lengths as Gamine seemed to have some trouble changing leads for most of the stretch. Her first quarter was 2 seconds slower than previous races which gave hope (and wind) to her rivals. She was more than good enough to vanquish these rivals. 104 Beyer for Gamine.

    The Travers was a rinse and repeat performance by Essential Quality:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    + Avoid traffic problems at the start (check)
    + Hang back a little (check)
    + Move up and stalk the leader (check)
    + Grind the leader down in the stretch for an unspectacular victory (check)
    The best 3YO in the land should get more credit than this bland review. He is a beautiful and talented horse.
    Midnight Bourbon was courageous in defeat, cutting all of the fractions, except the final one. They were both clear by 5 lengths of the show spot. 107 Beyer for EQ.

    The H. Allen Jerkins became a throw down between Life Is Good and Jackie's Warrior:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Jackie's Warrior prevailed by a neck and was awarded a 107 Beyer (the co-best of the day with EQ). Life Is Good received a Monmouth Park ride (no whipping) but was all out trying to win, but slightly short on conditioning. Jackie's Warrior is a stone cold sprinter, but Life Is Good is destined for better and longer things. Great Race!!! Two class horses.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1431713600897536001

    The Personal Ensign was proof positive that Letruska was the best mare in the land:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Letruska went to the front, and no less than 5 mares tried to press her and fell by the wayside. Letruska withstood all challenges and was awarded a 101 Beyer.

    And now, the most memorable race of the day at Saratoga. Wasn't expecting it, watch the stretch battle between #8 Firenze Fire and #7 Yaupon if you haven't seen it:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1431705620940529666
    If you are a casual fan of horse racing you might no be familiar with the term "savaging" it is a thing that happens. One horse will try to bite another. But it is rare. It is also rare that it happens for this long in a stretch. It is rare that a horse actually grabs the bridle of another horse. The jockeys did an AMAZING job handling the horses. The horses were amazing being able to continue racing. YES, the 8 'fouled' the 7 and impeded him (the head on camera showed this) while attempting to bite him. But it did not change the result of the race; and no other horses behind were affected because these 2 were so far in front. So there was no change in the order of finish. Yaupon received a 103 Beyer. I thought FF would have won if not for the 'incident.'
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...fire-in-forego

    Looking for a KYD 2022 horse who is not by Into Mischief and might be from California?
    I did catch a Baffert 2YO Colt make an impressive debut at Del Mar. Rockefeller was a $750K yearling; he is by Medaglia D'oro.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Didn't even switch leads in the stretch:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1431780967983693826

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Thanks for the links to Twitter. Essential Quality looks like he is ready to race again today. Iím not sure how a horse is supposed to look after a big, long race, but he didnít seem one bit tired. Is his adrenaline still high because he knows he just won another million dollar plus race? And how about his sire Tapit, is there a better sire in the land? I know Into Mischief makes a strong case, but wow!

  2. #342
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    Thanks for the links to Twitter. Essential Quality looks like he is ready to race again today. I’m not sure how a horse is supposed to look after a big, long race, but he didn’t seem one bit tired. Is his adrenaline still high because he knows he just won another million dollar plus race? And how about his sire Tapit, is there a better sire in the land? I know Into Mischief makes a strong case, but wow!
    Cox has done a great job with EQ. The horse takes care of himself and doesn't do any more than he has to. A good sign.

    BTW, Whitmore has been retired; a suspensory injury from his race yesterday. A great great sprinter.

    As to the Tapit vs. Into Mischief discussion (debate)... Both are SUPERSIRES.

    You have to go back to 2017 for Tapit's progeny to earn more money than Into Mischief, and Tapit has more foals racing each year.
    Tapit is 4 years older than Into Mischief (2001 vs. 2005). The average winning distance of their foals is significant; Tapit's foal's average winning distance is about 1.1 furlong longer per win than Into Mischief's (that's fairly large). There are many more races that are shorter than longer, but the Classics are longer, and the juvenile races are always shorter.
    Except for singular horses like Gun Runner, Justify, and Arrogate, tipping a single sire's yearly total, Tapit and Into Mischief have been in the top 3 for years.
    Into Mischief progeny cost more, but they earn more per starter so the market speaks the truth. Which one will have the better sire line or make the better broodmare sire? No one can tell, although Tapit has a better distance pedigree. Tapit has already produced sires Constitution (Tiz The Law) and Tapizar (Monomoy Girl), so his sire line will go on! Into Mischief has sired Goldenscents (By My Standards, Mr. Money) and Practical Joke (top 2YO sire this year), so he can get it done too.

    Better sires than racers as they both earned $557k/$597k. Both with exactly 6 starts and 3 wins (Into Mischief also had 3 Places making him oh so superior ).They both would be considered milers from what they presented on the track. But with ONLY 6 races, we hardly knew them. They were obviously more talented than we saw and more valuable off the track than on.

    In other news...

    There was a question about Hot Rod Charlie's next race; apparently he is pointing for the Pennsylvania Derby in 3 weeks. That will be raced in Pennsylvania according to the Department of Redundancy Department.
    Guess who else is likely to be going to the Pennsylvania Derby if all goes well this afternoon? Medina Spirit. Bob Baffert says his horse might be a little short going into the Shared Belief this afternoon. Is he telling the truth??

    This past week I saw two non-starter declarations for horses for opposite reasons. A non-starter is when a horse runs a race, but money is returned to the bettors because of a problem with the horse's start or condition.

    Case one, the horse broke through the starting gate a fraction of a second before the gate opened. It was barely perceptible, but true. A horse would otherwise get an advantage. Good call by the judges.

    Case two, the starter (guy who pushes the button to open the gait) did not see that the last horse was still being loaded at the end of the gait. He pressed the button to open the gait while the assistant starter was walking in that horse at the moment the other horses took off. His horse was trained to take off through the chute too. The (small) assistant starter managed to roll through the chute, with the horse as he ran through the chute and fell to the ground and was OK. Fortunately the other horses were long gone so there was horse to stomp on him in the next chute. Obviously the end horse did not get a fair start and money was returned to the bettors.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 08-29-2021 at 05:11 PM.

  3. #343
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Cox has done a great job with EQ. The horse takes care of himself and doesn't do any more than he has to. A good sign.

    BTW, Whitmore has been retired; a suspensory injury from his race yesterday. A great great sprinter.

    As to the Tapit vs. Into Mischief discussion (debate)... Both are SUPERSIRES.

    You have to go back to 2017 for Tapit's progeny to earn more money than Into Mischief, and Tapit has more foals racing each year.
    Tapit is 4 years older than Into Mischief (2001 vs. 2005). The average winning distance of their foals is significant; Tapit's foal's average winning distance is about 1.1 furlong longer per win than Into Mischief's (that's fairly large). There are many more races that are shorter than longer, but the Classics are longer, and the juvenile races are always shorter.
    Except for singular horses like Gun Runner, Justify, and Arrogate, tipping a single sire's yearly total, Tapit and Into Mischief have been in the top 3 for years.
    Into Mischief progeny cost more, but they earn more per starter so the market speaks the truth. Which one will have the better sire line or make the better broodmare sire? No one can tell, although Tapit has a better distance pedigree. Tapit has already produced sires Constitution (Tiz The Law) and Tapizar (Monomoy Girl), so his sire line will go on! Into Mischief has sired Goldenscents (By My Standards, Mr. Money) and Practical Joke (top 2YO sire this year), so he can get it done too.

    Better sires than racers as they both earned $557k/$597k. Both with exactly 6 starts and 3 wins (Into Mischief also had 3 Places making him oh so superior ).They both would be considered milers from what they presented on the track. But with ONLY 6 races, we hardly knew them. They were obviously more talented than we saw and more valuable off the track than on.

    In other news...

    There was a question about Hot Rod Charlie's next race; apparently he is pointing for the Pennsylvania Derby in 3 weeks. That will be raced in Pennsylvania according to the Department of Redundancy Department.
    Guess who else is likely to be going to the Pennsylvania Derby if all goes well this afternoon? Medina Spirit. Bob Baffert says his horse might be a little short going into the Shared Belief this afternoon. Is he telling the truth??

    This past week I saw two non-starter declarations for horses for opposite reasons. A non-starter is when a horse runs a race, but money is returned to the bettors because of a problem with the horse's start or condition.

    Case one, the horse broke through the starting gate a fraction of a second before the gate opened. It was barely perceptible, but true. A horse would otherwise get an advantage. Good call by the judges.

    Case two, the starter (guy who pushes the button to open the gait) did not see that the last horse was still being loaded at the end of the gait. He pressed the button to open the gait while the assistant starter was walking in that horse at the moment the other horses took off. His horse was trained to take off through the chute too. The (small) assistant starter managed to roll through the chute, with the horse as he ran through the chute and fell to the ground and was OK. Fortunately the other horses were long gone so there was horse to stomp on him in the next chute. Obviously the end horse did not get a fair start and money was returned to the bettors.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Medina Spirit had a workmanlike win in his first return to the races after his first place finish in the KYD:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Rock Your World finished an uneasy second to give backers a $4.10 Exacta payoff.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1432154017480597507

    So the Pennsylvania Derby is a maybe for MS.

    As for the Tapit/Into Mischief discussion, Tapit has 21 Grade I winners and Into Mischief has 10. The proportion of Black Type winners is similar. Edge would seem to be to Tapit, although I don't know how these type of races normalizes by length of race; it would be interesting to know. Usually it is based on the level of competition and not distance of race.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  4. #344

    Your Name On A Horse

    Naming horses is an interesting venture. You can be clever or egotistical. But one thing is for sure, you will end up following that horse and you will weave you choice into the bond of the racing world from that moment forward. If you are an owner or a breeder, you get that chance relatively often, but not so often if you are a bettor.

    Here is a story about Jonathan Kinchen. If you do not watch the racing broadcasts on NYRA, TVG, or NBC, you probably don't know Jonathan. He has wild hair and wear's funky shirts on the air as an alternate thinking handicapper, who is really good at what he does. He has won national handicapping contests and is fun to listen to. His Dad was a horse player and introduced him to the ponies, no surprise there. Jonathan's father passed away last year before the Breeder's Cup. Chad Brown, one of the top trainers in the sport, and Bob Edwards (one of Chad's associates and Breeders), offered Jonathan a chance to name a (good) horse after Jonathan's father. That horse had her debut this week.

    You can read more about it here:
    https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...-on-in-kinchen

    Jonathan in his own words before the race here:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1432067339797860356

    Results of the race:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    If you haven't guessed, the horse's name is Kinchen.
    kinchen.jpg

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  5. #345
    It is the last weekend of the summer for Saratoga and Del Mar. It has gone so fast.

    There are stakes all over the place, but I'll mention those that are of interest to me.

    Saratoga on Saturday:

    Race 7, 2YO maidens:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Pletcher URL above, Saturday Sept 4, Race 7, Ultimate PPs]
    Pletcher has an $875k first time starter, Into Mischief in here; looks poised to do well.
    But you have to be careful. I saw a 2YO maiden race this week, full of first time starters, except for 1 second time starter who had finished 4th in his only start; he won by a ton. This race has 3 previous starters out of 10, only 2 second time starters.

    Race 8, The Saranac Stakes, for 3YO Fillies:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Pletcher URL above, Saturday Sept 4, Race 8, Ultimate PPs]
    If Never Surprised races back to her previous form, and grows into her 3YO self, she'll win.

    Race 12, they move the Jockey Club Gold Cup from the Belmont fall meet to Saratoga:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Pletcher URL above, Saturday Sept 4, Race 12, Ultimate PPs]
    Should be Happy Player vs. Max Player, but Forza Di Oro is starting to get it and is developing.
    If you are betting breeding then Max Player, being an Honor Code, should get better with age and longer distance.

    At Del Mar:

    Race 6, the I'm Smokin Stakes for 2YO Fs:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [P.Miller URL above, Saturday Sept 4, Race 6, Ultimate PPs]
    Maybe some good 2YO fillies in here.

    Race 10, 2YO maidens:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [P.Miller URL above, Saturday Sept 4, Race 10, Ultimate PPs]
    The #10 is a $1.5Million colt by Quality Road, trained by Bob Baffert. The workouts are pretty good. Worth watching.
    However, Although Quality Road was a spectacular race horse, he has made his name with the fillies that he has sired, not his colts. Perhaps they will regress to the mean at some point and he'll throw a top colt, but I've seen more Quality Road colts NOT win their first start than have win them. BTW, there is another QR colt making his first start in here, but he costs quite a bit less. There is also an Arrogate colt in there, but not a one has won yet; but as you have heard, they are not yet worried..


    On Sunday at Saratoga:

    Race 1, 2YO maiden Fillies:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Pletcher URL above, Sunday Sept 5, Race 1, Ultimate PPs]
    Interesting mix of low priced first time starters and second time starters.

    Race 7, 2YO maidens New York Breds:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Pletcher URL above, Sunday Sept 5, Race7 1, Ultimate PPs]
    Pletcher has the 2 horse who was purchased for $550k and has been working well.


    Race 11, Spinaway Stakes, 2YOF:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Cox URL above, Sunday Sept 5, Race 11, Ultimate PPs]
    Echo Zulu, Pretty Birdie (Whitney connections), and the much discussed Sue Ellen Mishkin so battle.

    At Del Mar, there is an interesting horse in one of those Optional Claimers (not in for a claim obviously):
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Sadler URL above, Sunday Sept 5, Race 8, Ultimate PPs]
    Flightline had a debut with a big Beyer and a 13 length victory. This $1M Tapit Colt looks like he could be destined for great things if he can stay healthy!

    Monday is the Hopeful at Saratoga (PPs tomorrow).

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  6. #346
    Monday getaway treats:

    At Saratoga, the Hopeful:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Pletcher URL above, September 6, 2021, Saratoga Race 10, Classic PPs]
    Wit has been very impressive. But so has High Oak. These 2YOs can change and progress quickly, especially those who have had just one race.
    This race has a hallowed history of producing great races and winners. Affirmed hooked up with Alydar. Summer Squall flashed his turn of foot here. Many others. It is a premier race to stamp 2YO contenders.

    At Del Mar, the Del Mar Futurity:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [Baffert URL above, September 6, 2021, Saratoga Race 9, Classic PPs]
    Pappacap won the Best Pal easily. Murray looks like he has credentials off his maiden win and can improve.
    Since the Breeder's Cup is at Del Mar, it will certainly produce a co-favorite for the BC Juvenile.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  7. #347
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    It is the last weekend of the summer for Saratoga and Del Mar. It has gone so fast.

    There are stakes all over the place, but I'll mention those that are of interest to me.

    Saratoga on Saturday:

    Race 7, 2YO maidens:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Pletcher URL above, Saturday Sept 4, Race 7, Ultimate PPs]
    Pletcher has an $875k first time starter, Into Mischief in here; looks poised to do well.
    But you have to be careful. I saw a 2YO maiden race this week, full of first time starters, except for 1 second time starter who had finished 4th in his only start; he won by a ton. This race has 3 previous starters out of 10, only 2 second time starters.

    Race 8, The Saranac Stakes, for 3YO Fillies:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Pletcher URL above, Saturday Sept 4, Race 8, Ultimate PPs]
    If Never Surprised races back to her previous form, and grows into her 3YO self, she'll win.

    Race 12, they move the Jockey Club Gold Cup from the Belmont fall meet to Saratoga:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Pletcher URL above, Saturday Sept 4, Race 12, Ultimate PPs]
    Should be Happy Player vs. Max Player, but Forza Di Oro is starting to get it and is developing.
    If you are betting breeding then Max Player, being an Honor Code, should get better with age and longer distance.

    At Del Mar:

    Race 6, the I'm Smokin Stakes for 2YO Fs:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [P.Miller URL above, Saturday Sept 4, Race 6, Ultimate PPs]
    Maybe some good 2YO fillies in here.

    Race 10, 2YO maidens:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [P.Miller URL above, Saturday Sept 4, Race 10, Ultimate PPs]
    The #10 is a $1.5Million colt by Quality Road, trained by Bob Baffert. The workouts are pretty good. Worth watching.
    However, Although Quality Road was a spectacular race horse, he has made his name with the fillies that he has sired, not his colts. Perhaps they will regress to the mean at some point and he'll throw a top colt, but I've seen more Quality Road colts NOT win their first start than have win them. BTW, there is another QR colt making his first start in here, but he costs quite a bit less. There is also an Arrogate colt in there, but not a one has won yet; but as you have heard, they are not yet worried..


    Larry
    DevilHorse
    On Saturday:



    At Saratoga,

    In Race 5, an interesting result. If you were playing trends, you would not have bet the winner Cilla:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Her sire, California Chrome, has had only one black type winner before. But Cilla became his second in what.. 5 years. Amazing.

    Race 7, a well kept secret was Classic Causeway:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    The son of Giant's Causeway won easily and stamped himself for future stakes company.''

    Race 8, the Saranac Stakes, was won by the favorite, Public Sector:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Race 12, the Jockey Club Gold Cup, was an exciting race:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Max Player won and showed that he will be a player in the BC Classic this year.

    On the coast at Del Mar:

    Race 6, the I'm Smokin for 2YOs, was won by Joker Boy:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    There was some discussion as to why Joker Boy's sire, Practical Joke, has been succeeding so well. He is siring very mature looking colts. Obviously we'll see if this translates to longer races and being 3YOs.

    Race 10, a very competitive looking 2YO maiden race, was won by the $1.5M yearling Corniche:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Another one to put on your list for the BC Juvenile.


    Larry
    DevilHorse

  8. #348
    Somehow I missed how active this thread is. Iím headed to Del Mar tomorrow, although honestly not sure if there are high profile races on the last day of the summer meet.

  9. #349
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    Somehow I missed how active this thread is. I’m headed to Del Mar tomorrow, although honestly not sure if there are high profile races on the last day of the summer meet.
    As mentioned before..on Monday (last day of meet):

    At Del Mar, the Del Mar Futurity:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [Baffert URL above, September 6, 2021, Saratoga Race 9, Classic PPs]
    Pappacap won the Best Pal easily. Murray looks like he has credentials off his maiden win and can improve.
    Since the Breeder's Cup is at Del Mar, it will certainly produce a co-favorite for the BC Juvenile.

    This is the most notable stake and is a national profile race.

    Also, you can see most of the PPs, for Monday Sept 6 at Del Mar, early through Briswatch Peter Miller's page:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html

    Let us know how you enjoyed yourself.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 09-05-2021 at 03:21 PM.

  10. #350
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    It is the last weekend of the summer for Saratoga and Del Mar. It has gone so fast.

    There are stakes all over the place, but I'll mention those that are of interest to me.



    On Sunday at Saratoga:

    Race 1, 2YO maiden Fillies:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Pletcher URL above, Sunday Sept 5, Race 1, Ultimate PPs]
    Interesting mix of low priced first time starters and second time starters.

    Race 7, 2YO maidens New York Breds:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Pletcher URL above, Sunday Sept 5, Race7 1, Ultimate PPs]
    Pletcher has the 2 horse who was purchased for $550k and has been working well.


    Race 11, Spinaway Stakes, 2YOF:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Cox URL above, Sunday Sept 5, Race 11, Ultimate PPs]
    Echo Zulu, Pretty Birdie (Whitney connections), and the much discussed Sue Ellen Mishkin so battle.

    At Del Mar, there is an interesting horse in one of those Optional Claimers (not in for a claim obviously):
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Sadler URL above, Sunday Sept 5, Race 8, Ultimate PPs]
    Flightline had a debut with a big Beyer and a 13 length victory. This $1M Tapit Colt looks like he could be destined for great things if he can stay healthy!

    Monday is the Hopeful at Saratoga (PPs tomorrow).

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    OK, let me start with a couple of races I didn't preview:

    I had mentioned that Optional Claimers can sometimes produce gems. There was one on Saturday when Bill Mott trainee Baby Yoda ran a hole in the wind:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    That is a 1:14 and change for 6.5 furlongs, earning a gigantic 114 Beyer.
    Here is the stretch run:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1434270671144632320
    Now, it could be that the track was just fast that day; there were some other fast races.
    As I've discussed much earlier in the thread, Beyer (and speed figures in general) are calculated based on what everyday claimers (or just regular horses) are expected to run to set par values on a given day. That gives you a baseline, and then the maidens, allowance, horses, and Stakes horses work relative to that; and weather, track biases etc.. get superimposed based on formulas. What if you get exceptional performances by winning claimers, the track is very fast, or there aren't any claiming races? It is tougher to set the baseline. Is Baby Yoda a superhorse? Dropped in for horses who never won..and was 6-1? I doubt it.

    Also, the Del Mar Debutante for 2YO Fillies was won by Grace Adler:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Winning by a country mile on a Baffert $700k, undefeated filly, at 4-1? Who saw that coming? TheDevilMadeMeDoIt I'm sure loaded up

    The sibling race to the Del Mar Debutante (the Del Mar Futurity) is the 9th race today and should be fun.

    On Saturday:

    At Saratoga, Race 1:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    The filly winner was Magic Circle at 25-1. They are not all favorites that will be in the KYD next year.

    Race 7 at the Spa:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Classy Empire, daughter of Classic Empire, won for fun as the favorite.

    Race 8 at the Spa:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Jester No Joy is the winner by a lot; very impressive. Her sire Maclean's Music is no stranger to this forum; the top sprinters Jackie's Warrior and Drain The Clock are by Maclean's Music.

    Race 11 at the Spa, the Spinaway Stakes, a very impressive effort by Echo Zulu:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    A very nice 4 length win by this filly earned her a 90 Beyer figure.
    Here is the video:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1434642021302489090
    Give credit her sire Gun Runner who leads all sires of 2YOs so far this year (Into Mischief currently 2nd); Echo Zulu's dam now has 7 of 12 progeny over $100k in earnings.

    At Monmouth Park, the Sapling Stakes for 2YOs was won by Double Thunder:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    When Pletcher ships in, you better watch out (or at least bet).
    Here is the video of the stretch run:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1434610870215086080
    Watch as Double Thunder comes out of the clouds to win.


    BTW, I mentioned Corniche winning on Saturday.
    Race 10, a very competitive looking 2YO maiden race, was won by the $1.5M yearling Corniche:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Another one to put on your list for the BC Juvenile.
    But I didn't realize at the time that Corniche had been awarded a 98 Beyer, which is the highest value for a 2YO this year. Grade inflation? I don't know.
    Judge for yourself:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1434324922696814594

    And now for the cherry on top. The last race that I forecast for you. Yet another Optional Claimer, but full of anticipation for Flightline. A $1M horse who showed a 13 length victory earlier this year. What was he going to do? (No, he isn't a Baffert horse).
    Here's the video, watch it first, especially if you like to watch Notre Dame getting beat:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1434672284342489088
    This is one of the best examples of a jockey "Sitting Chilly" on the back of a horse; Flavien Prat didn't move a muscle on the back of this horse in the stretch.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Although you can't see it from this video, Flightline did not have the lead early in the race; he was rated. It will be interesting because without any urging, Flightline ran a 1:08.00 for 6 furlongs, which is only 2/5 off the track record. Ultra impressive for a 3YO Colt in his 2nd start. The trainer said that he was pointing for the Malibu Stakes on New Year's Day next. What? You're running him 3 times a year? I can't argue with John Sadler; he seems to know what he's doing. Beyer for Flilghtline 114 - Wow.

    1:14, 114, 114 numerology is wild...

    Hopeful and Del Mar Futurity today.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 09-06-2021 at 10:52 AM.

  11. #351
    The Saratoga meet is in the books, and Gun Runner slammed it shut:.

    Today, in the Hopeful, Gunite, 2YOC trained by Steve Asmussen (winning 5 Grade Is at Saratoga), won convincingly:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Wit had a horrible start and weaved his way through the field to finish a respectable 2nd on a muddy track.
    Make no mistake, Gun Runner is the leading sire with 3 Grade I winners in the past 2 days at Saratoga he sweeps the 2YO races with Echo Zulu impressing yesterday.
    And this evening, he has Pappacap as the probable favorite in the Del Mar Futurity. What a start for this young sire.

    Earlier on the card, in Race 7 at Saratoga, Arrogate's Don't Wait Up became his first winner (in the slop). Don't worry about him; these horses will age like fine wine.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    The second place horse, Command Performance, had a terrible start and will likely win at next asking!

    I will digress for the next 2 days and comment on the Del Mar Futurity then.

    Best of luck to all.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  12. #352
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    As mentioned before..on Monday (last day of meet):

    At Del Mar, the Del Mar Futurity:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [Baffert URL above, September 6, 2021, Saratoga Race 9, Classic PPs]
    Pappacap won the Best Pal easily. Murray looks like he has credentials off his maiden win and can improve.
    Since the Breeder's Cup is at Del Mar, it will certainly produce a co-favorite for the BC Juvenile.

    This is the most notable stake and is a national profile race.

    Also, you can see most of the PPs, for Monday Sept 6 at Del Mar, early through Briswatch Peter Miller's page:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html

    Let us know how you enjoyed yourself.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    On Monday, in the old Baffert misdirection, Pinehurst (good North Carolina golfing name) won the Del Mar Futurity:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Video here:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1435054433017085957
    Pinehurst may have been impressive, but his 79 Beyer did not rate him as high as other 2YOs. Time will tell of course.
    Pappacap and Murray did not show up on Monday.

    Chub Wagon re-appeared, without a Pletcher horse to bother him:
    http://www.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorseD...0906&raceNo=10

    High Priced Yearling ($2.5M), and second time maiden attempter Lidstrom appears at Laurel today:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Motion URL above, September 9, 2021, Laurel - Race 4, Ultimate PPs]
    This time without Paco Lopez. Works are not impressive, and several others are second time starters too.
    But he has the best pedigree for going the distance (queue Kevin Costner).

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  13. #353
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    I thought I replied to this thread yesterday, but evidently failed to punch a button. Several million dollars on the line at Ky. Downs tomorrow. The best trainers, jockeys and several million dollar winning horses on the grass. Devil Horse I know you prefer dirt racing, but the races tomorrow are interesting. Got Stormy takes on the boys again. Can Arklow win for Cox at 1.5 miles again?

    I went to Ky. Downs for the first time yesterday. The hill is much longer and steeper than it appears on television. Instead of the turf looking like a golf fairway, it looks like a pasture. The stretch is longer than a quarter mile, so the races are decided much later in the stretch. Leading at top of the stretch doesnít mean much. With Rosario who is killing it, Saez, Johnny V, Irad, (Jose Ortiz is in COVID protocol), Gafflione, Santana, and Rispoli and Prat coming in from California the jockey colony looks like a Breeders Cup weekend. Several past Grade One winners are running. Turn on TVG and enjoy a day at the races like no other horse races in this country.

    And best of all with big fields if you can hit them, the exacta pay outs are much larger than normal.

  14. #354
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    I thought I replied to this thread yesterday, but evidently failed to punch a button. Several million dollars on the line at Ky. Downs tomorrow. The best trainers, jockeys and several million dollar winning horses on the grass. Devil Horse I know you prefer dirt racing, but the races tomorrow are interesting. Got Stormy takes on the boys again. Can Arklow win for Cox at 1.5 miles again?

    I went to Ky. Downs for the first time yesterday. The hill is much longer and steeper than it appears on television. Instead of the turf looking like a golf fairway, it looks like a pasture. The stretch is longer than a quarter mile, so the races are decided much later in the stretch. Leading at top of the stretch doesn’t mean much. With Rosario who is killing it, Saez, Johnny V, Irad, (Jose Ortiz is in COVID protocol), Gafflione, Santana, and Rispoli and Prat coming in from California the jockey colony looks like a Breeders Cup weekend. Several past Grade One winners are running. Turn on TVG and enjoy a day at the races like no other horse races in this country.

    And best of all with big fields if you can hit them, the exacta pay outs are much larger than normal.
    True, I'm not a big turf lover. However, the big races are part of the TVG Pick 5 (free contest), so I did look at these races.

    Got Stormy is in the 8th at KYD:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Mott URL above, Saturday Sept 11, 2021, Kentucky Downs - Race 8]
    Got Stormy just doesn't put 2 good efforts together, so I would go with Casa Creed as my choice.

    They have some very competitive races.

    In the 9th, I like Arklow:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Brad Cox URL above, Saturday Sept 11, 2021, Kentucky Downs - Race 9]

    In the 10th,
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Mott URL above, Saturday Sept 11, 2021, Kentucky Downs - Race 10]
    If Fauci draws in (he is an Also Eligible), I'd take a shot with him. I took note of him in his last race at Saratoga because, well, his name. But if he was more forwardly placed he would have won that race. He was just too far back. Also, his jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. has really been killing it lately. He was riding all of Steve Asmussen's big horses at Saratoga, and just doing really well. A terrible post race interview though, but don't discount him when he is on a horse; he knows his way around a fetlock.

    Frankly, KY Downs is offering a lot of money and they are getting mostly mediocrity (although competitive races) for their money. If they get the big betting for it, then I guess they'll be encouraged to do it again. There was a quarter horse track out on Long Island (way out in Suffolk County) called Parr Meadows, years ago (1977-1979 or so). They offered big purses, etc.. Very exciting. But no one lived out in Suffolk county; they ran during the week. No one in New York State knew anything about quarter horse racing. Off Track Betting was in its infancy. There was no cable betting. They went belly up in a couple of years. Hopefully, Kentucky Downs, has a better business model, but huge purses?! Perhaps during this dark period, after Saratoga/Del Mar, before Keeneland/Belmont, they can make some hay.

    A personal aside today, we all acknowledge September 11, 2001 today. The town I was working in (in New Jersey) saw a dozen kids lose parents in the twin towers that day. My office-mate lost a cousin. A couple of weekends later, I crossed the Verrazano bridge and could see the smoke continue to rise from ground zero, and a lane was dedicated on the Staten Island Expressway for months to transport wreckage from the crash site. The whole Metropolitan area still aches some 20 years later.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 09-11-2021 at 08:27 AM.

  15. #355
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    True, I'm not a big turf lover. However, the big races are part of the TVG Pick 5 (free contest), so I did look at these races.

    Got Stormy is in the 8th at KYD:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Mott URL above, Saturday Sept 11, 2021, Kentucky Downs - Race 8]
    Got Stormy just doesn't put 2 good efforts together, so I would go with Casa Creed as my choice.

    They have some very competitive races.

    In the 9th, I like Arklow:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Brad Cox URL above, Saturday Sept 11, 2021, Kentucky Downs - Race 9]

    In the 10th,
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Mott URL above, Saturday Sept 11, 2021, Kentucky Downs - Race 10]
    If Fauci draws in (he is an Also Eligible), I'd take a shot with him. I took note of him in his last race at Saratoga because, well, his name. But if he was more forwardly placed he would have won that race. He was just too far back. Also, his jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. has really been killing it lately. He was riding all of Steve Asmussen's big horses at Saratoga, and just doing really well. A terrible post race interview though, but don't discount him when he is on a horse; he knows his way around a fetlock.

    Frankly, KY Downs is offering a lot of money and they are getting mostly mediocrity (although competitive races) for their money. If they get the big betting for it, then I guess they'll be encouraged to do it again. There was a quarter horse track out on Long Island (way out in Suffolk County) called Parr Meadows, years ago (1977-1979 or so). They offered big purses, etc.. Very exciting. But no one lived out in Suffolk county; they ran during the week. No one in New York State knew anything about quarter horse racing. Off Track Betting was in its infancy. There was no cable betting. They went belly up in a couple of years. Hopefully, Kentucky Downs, has a better business model, but huge purses?! Perhaps during this dark period, after Saratoga/Del Mar, before Keeneland/Belmont, they can make some hay.

    A personal aside today, we all acknowledge September 11, 2001 today. The town I was working in (in New Jersey) saw a dozen kids lose parents in the twin towers that day. My office-mate lost a cousin. A couple of weekends later, I crossed the Verrazano bridge and could see the smoke continue to rise from ground zero, and a lane was dedicated on the Staten Island Expressway for months to transport wreckage from the crash site. The whole Metropolitan area still aches some 20 years later.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Kentucky Downs model is slot machines, or as they are called in Kentucky, Historical Horse Race machines. The algorithms use old horse race results to spin the wheels and determine the winner. Otherwise, only parimutuel wagering is legal under Kentuckyís 1890ís constitution. Sort of like Illinois and Mississippi placing their original casinos on rivers for their cleansing effect from sin. I know I digress but as someone who has always lived in the south I am sick to death of having morality laws about drinking and gambling when everyone does it, just in secret.

    Now after my rant, back to racing. You will also notice the Kentucky Thoroughbred Development fund pumps in half of the purses. You are correct that million dollar races should draw higher quality horses, but I believe this year has the most graded stakes ever. Also as more trainers ship for the big bucks I think you will see better horses. One thing is undeniable, the fields are BIG, the races are competitive and the payoffs particularly on the exotics are much larger than usual. So these are great betting races!

    As for as Got Stormy she ran great here last year, so I know she likes the track. I didnít look at speed figures before typing but I believe it was one of her fastest races. Admittedly the track was lightening fast last year before the big rains affected the last few days. I agree that if she doesnít run well, Casa Creed will. I also wonder why they are running her in a six furlong race rather than a mile.

    On Labor Day the late pick five paid, $198,000. If it pays that today then my horses in those races all ran poorly. Caton Bradar and I shared a ONE win day on Monday. Hopefully today is better.

    Good luck on the TVG pick five. My TVG account is closed as they didnít renew their license in Tennessee where I currently live. Their parent company Fan Duel has online sports betting in Tennessee which is now legal, not sure why TVG isnít.

  16. #356
    Watching the Kentucky Downs meet on TVG and they showed the turf preparation squad before the budget cuts:
    lawnGuy1.jpg
    Not sure which one of this crack team they let go.

    I've never seen a turf course that looked more thread bare or unkempt. They run races on Euro courses all the time, and they are lush. There's been plenty of rain (year has been warmer and wetter). Spend some money before it is a dirt track!

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  17. #357
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    The report is they sodded the area around last turn. But yes it looks like a pasture. That hasnít kept Asmussen, Maker, Pletcher, Mott et al from sending horses. I didnít realize it was a Breeders Cup win and your in day for the two main races. I think you will see better horses each year from now on. The money is too good to ignore. The mid eastern horsemen seem to like it. Godolphin and Qatar both had winners today. The rural aspect is what makes it unique. Who else has an egg shaped course, with a slight right turn, up a long hill, then down and what I believe is one of the longest stretches in horse racing. Keeneland is lovely but stuffy as hell, still canít wear $250. denim pants in the clubhouse. I find KD to be a breath of fresh air, although I couldnít pick much today. Arklow should have won with any luck. Princes Grace broke terrible and then ran great. I suspect she will be in the Breeders Cup after her race today. Welcome to rural Kentucky!

  18. #358
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    The report is they sodded the area around last turn. But yes it looks like a pasture. That hasnít kept Asmussen, Maker, Pletcher, Mott et al from sending horses. I didnít realize it was a Breeders Cup win and your in day for the two main races. I think you will see better horses each year from now on. The money is too good to ignore. The mid eastern horsemen seem to like it. Godolphin and Qatar both had winners today. The rural aspect is what makes it unique. Who else has an egg shaped course, with a slight right turn, up a long hill, then down and what I believe is one of the longest stretches in horse racing. Keeneland is lovely but stuffy as hell, still canít wear $250. denim pants in the clubhouse. I find KD to be a breath of fresh air, although I couldnít pick much today. Arklow should have won with any luck. Princes Grace broke terrible and then ran great. I suspect she will be in the Breeders Cup after her race today. Welcome to rural Kentucky!
    Thanks for the report.

    You put your finger on it; it does have a very European feel to it, although counterclockwise from our perspective. I do like long runs to the wire (much fairer!). Big fields may be nice for betting, but so much worse for traffic (less fairer).

    It also seemed like a NY/NJ rush (sic?) hour highway. Traffic all bunched up and the highway in need of repair.
    Fauci also stuck in traffic, like Arklow. But that is horse racing isn't it.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  19. #359
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Thanks for the report.

    You put your finger on it; it does have a very European feel to it, although counterclockwise from our perspective. I do like long runs to the wire (much fairer!). Big fields may be nice for betting, but so much worse for traffic (less fairer).

    It also seemed like a NY/NJ rush (sic?) hour highway. Traffic all bunched up and the highway in need of repair.
    Fauci also stuck in traffic, like Arklow. But that is horse racing isn't it.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Took the family and grandchildren to Ky. Downs yesterday. There is no grandstands. At the top of the stretch is tailgating, literally bring your own chair, no admission charge. Then with a hotel under construction there are no patrons. On the other side of the construction site and toward the finish line is a temporary building for owners, trainers and big wigs. Then at the finish line are tents, tables and chairs (like an outdoor wedding reception). Only those folks who paid $60. a chair have access to finish line and paddock. You feel really close to the horses and the action.

    I introduced my grandchildren to my vice of horse betting. First the 14 year old won a bet winning $20. Next my very competitive 11 year old granddaughter became interested wanting to know about odds and how to bet. After she won a bet my 7 year old put down his IPad, wanted to go to the paddock where Caton Bradar was doing the analysis over the P.A. From that point on he was picking horses. To end the day, my daughter won a trifecta and divided the money 3 ways for the kids. They were ready to go back and already making plans for next Labor Day. And my wife had been worried they would be bored. Fortunately I hit a good exacta winning $100 and played with house money the rest of the day.

    Rosario led the meet with 17 wins. He seemed to find the rail position often entering the final turn. Gaffalione was a distant second at 8 wins. No one else was close. About $35 million was bet the last two days which was probably a record. For every person at the track there were probably 50 to 100 inside the casino, with all the smoke. I used to be among those although I preferred table games, not legal in Ky. As a retired person I have lost interest in that, but the ponies still provide quite a thrill. One last racing note, out of a total of 64 races over 6 days, I counted only 5 front runners winning and 2 of those were on day 1 when it rained.

    I commented on this earlier, but the hill is longer and higher than it appears on television with a slight right hand bend. It is so different from any other American track I find it fascinating.

    In one of the big races of the day, $550K, for fillies and mares 3 and up, Family Way who last ran at Ellis Park beat horses from Saratoga, DelMar and England. Micheline, the leading money winner in the race is way off form and ran poorly.

    I believe Rosario won the title last year also. Iím not sure there is a better grass jockey in the country. The California horses did not run well. I guess they are just too urbane. Iím not sure which trainer led, but Amsussen and Maker were right up there. Horses who last raced at Saratoga probably won the most and they were in most of the races. The Ellis Park horses acquitted themselves well. Many of those are also in the Asmussen and Maker barns.

    I went to the track twice, about an hour drive from my house, if traffic in downtown Nashville isnít too bad. Like my grandchildren, Iím already making plans for next year!

    Now letís het ready for Keeneland and then the Breeders Cup!

  20. #360
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    Took the family and grandchildren to Ky. Downs yesterday. There is no grandstands. At the top of the stretch is tailgating, literally bring your own chair, no admission charge. Then with a hotel under construction there are no patrons. On the other side of the construction site and toward the finish line is a temporary building for owners, trainers and big wigs. Then at the finish line are tents, tables and chairs (like an outdoor wedding reception). Only those folks who paid $60. a chair have access to finish line and paddock. You feel really close to the horses and the action.

    I introduced my grandchildren to my vice of horse betting. First the 14 year old won a bet winning $20. Next my very competitive 11 year old granddaughter became interested wanting to know about odds and how to bet. After she won a bet my 7 year old put down his IPad, wanted to go to the paddock where Caton Bradar was doing the analysis over the P.A. From that point on he was picking horses. To end the day, my daughter won a trifecta and divided the money 3 ways for the kids. They were ready to go back and already making plans for next Labor Day. And my wife had been worried they would be bored. Fortunately I hit a good exacta winning $100 and played with house money the rest of the day.

    Rosario led the meet with 17 wins. He seemed to find the rail position often entering the final turn. Gaffalione was a distant second at 8 wins. No one else was close. About $35 million was bet the last two days which was probably a record. For every person at the track there were probably 50 to 100 inside the casino, with all the smoke. I used to be among those although I preferred table games, not legal in Ky. As a retired person I have lost interest in that, but the ponies still provide quite a thrill. One last racing note, out of a total of 64 races over 6 days, I counted only 5 front runners winning and 2 of those were on day 1 when it rained.

    I commented on this earlier, but the hill is longer and higher than it appears on television with a slight right hand bend. It is so different from any other American track I find it fascinating.

    In one of the big races of the day, $550K, for fillies and mares 3 and up, Family Way who last ran at Ellis Park beat horses from Saratoga, DelMar and England. Micheline, the leading money winner in the race is way off form and ran poorly.

    I believe Rosario won the title last year also. Iím not sure there is a better grass jockey in the country. The California horses did not run well. I guess they are just too urbane. Iím not sure which trainer led, but Amsussen and Maker were right up there. Horses who last raced at Saratoga probably won the most and they were in most of the races. The Ellis Park horses acquitted themselves well. Many of those are also in the Asmussen and Maker barns.

    I went to the track twice, about an hour drive from my house, if traffic in downtown Nashville isnít too bad. Like my grandchildren, Iím already making plans for next year!

    Now letís het ready for Keeneland and then the Breeders Cup!
    Wonderful story.

    I saw a picture (I will spare you, unless you want me to look it up), the race caller from the KD meet, Larry Collmus, who was local here in NJ for many years, was visited by Dan Issel. Dan as I recall was 6' 11". Of course he was from the University of Kentucky and no doubt resides near there. He was in the first professional basketball game that I attended while I was in High School as a member of the Kentucky Colonels of the ABA (I was a New York Nets fan - with Rick Barry).

    Your description of Kentucky Down explains a lot. It reminded me so much of the New Jersey Fairs. We would race some of our lesser horses on the weekly fair circuit. No stands, just bring your own chairs. Lots of friendly people, food trucks, meager purses, and experience for our young horses. Some tracks were better than others. There are some better fairs than others though. The New York State Fair at Syracuse, the Delaware County Fair (in a week in Ohio), the Duquoin State Fair in Illinois, The Indiana State Fair all have stands and big purses. This last paragraph was all from my standardbred experience.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

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