Horse Racing 2021

[DevilHorse]

I just took a look at the entries and post positions. Unlike the Derby, it appears from historical winners, there are no terrible posts except maybe outside post 11. This looks like a much better race than the Preakness. The best Derby horses, minus the drugged winner and Mandaloun are all back. I will take a close look at Essential Quality again. He only lost me money one time so far.

Forecast is for clearing after a couple of days of showers. Big Sandy dries out well.

The Belmont is fair <slight interruption for Coach K news> because it is so long and there are usually few horses, strung out, so no one is boxed in. If Seattle Slew and Bold Forbes can win this race, it is obvious that it is tactical.
Post 11 will not win this race, nor will post 10. Only 8 horses in the race ;^)

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Report that 2nd sample came back positive on Medina Spirit.
https://www.espn.com/horse-racing/st...awyer-confirms

Sources say Baffert avoiding being near Medina Spirit without a chaperone.

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

I just took a look at the entries and post positions. Unlike the Derby, it appears from historical winners, there are no terrible posts except maybe outside post 11. This looks like a much better race than the Preakness. The best Derby horses, minus the drugged winner and Mandaloun are all back. I will take a close look at Essential Quality again. He only lost me money one time so far.

I should have said post 12 and above, as there have been winners from post 11. Fewer far outside winners may be the consequence of the Belmont having smaller fields than the Derby and thus fewer horses running from the far outside posts. In any event, with the wide turns, it would not seem that any horse in the race is at a disadvantage, unless the horse runs too slow!

[DevilHorse]

As some of you may know, Churchill Downs has suspended Bob Baffert for 2 years.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/02/chur...drug-test.html

This means any track that they operate too.

Those tracks include (the ones in Bold are of importance since Baffert doesn't race at second hand tracks):

Churchill Downs Incorporated owns the following racetrack and casino properties:

Arlington Park
Calder Casino and Race Course
Churchill Downs
Derby City Gaming (formerly Louisville Downs)
Fair Grounds Race Course and Slots
Harlow's Casino Resort
Lady Luck Casino Nemacolin
Miami Valley Gaming (50% stake)
Ocean Downs
Oxford Casino
Presque Isle Downs
Rivers Casino (62% stake)
Riverwalk Casino Hotel
Turfway Park

Other tracks may have reciprocal agreements with Churchill Downs and may also suspend/Deny Baffert racing rights.

This is apparently not for the single incident of the Kentucky Derby, but I'm sure that is the big straw that broke the Camel's back.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

OK, nothing like a Coach K retirement mystery in the Horse forum.

Who is the horse over the shoulder in Coach Boeheim's house?
I don't know.

boeHorse1.jpg

BTW, lots of trotters and pacers up by Syracuse near the State Fairgrounds.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Some potpourri before we get into a big Belmont week..

I saw a list of 8 Grade I races for Saturday's Belmont card. There should be a few good horses racing.

Here is an article about initial results on the whipless racing at Monmouth. Short answer.. too early to know. Wasn't a disaster, but weather conditions prevented anyone from knowing if poor handle was impacted by the whipping issue or weather.
https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...ngpFfA.twitter

More 2YO races happening, but I'm not seeing a lot of quality in there yet, although some quality trainers are sending out their lesser horses.

At this time of year there are a few trainers who get their horses out on the track early and collect early wins.
Steve Assmussen is one of those guys.
He has a second time starter who did well in her first start, but didn't graduate. Second time starters are a betting tip!
Steve Assmussen early 2YOs is another.
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...408&param3=272

I don't know if you've gotten the drift or not, but I am not a big turf racing guy. But I do appreciate horses that have a style or show consistency.
There is a very interesting race on Thursday at Belmont. Race 8, the Wonder Again, has some interesting 3YO fillies.
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1067088
There are 2 fillies who love to run on the front end and WIN. Con Lima and Jouster, both from Pletcher. Now you figure that these 2 speed balls, being from the same barn, will not tire each other out (being from the same barn), but sometimes it is the horse has that has the final say. That's why we look for a closer. That's why we look at the appropriately named Alwayz Late. She shows mostly turf races, and loves to close, but it is her most recent start that is interesting. Her connections thought enough of her to make her last start in the Gazelle, which was a prep race for the Kentucky Oaks, but it was a dirt race. That race was won by Search Results (2nd in the KY Oaks by a smidge) and 3rd place was Army Wife (won the Black Eyed Susan); that was some top fillies in the Gazelle, making it perhaps the top prep race. What's more is that the jockey ran Alwayz Late completely against her successful pattern (out slowly and end with a flourish); the result was that it appears like AL didn't like the dirt and spit the bit in the stretch. But I think that she will be coming from behind to have a shot, at a price, against the two above behemoths.

Another race of interest is the Thursday Belmont race 3. It is an Allowance race. Andy Serling, Handicapper for the NYRA, made an offhand comment on a broadcast a few weeks ago that "Following Sea may be the fastest of the Run Happy's". Well, I missed any previous race by him, but he is on Race 3 and I'm going to check him out. It is an Allowance race for non-winners of a race other than maiden, claiming, etc. But the conditions are tortured to get the 1 horse in.
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...242&param3=207
The 1 horse Wudda U Think Now is an older horse and wins half the time. I don't know why he is in this race, but the Race Secretary is throwing someone a bone here.
Following Sea is interesting. He showed speed finishing 2nd in his first start, and then wowwed them with his second start win. Then... the horse was taken away from the trainer, Bob Baffert and given to Todd Pletcher. I haven't seen that before. Spendthrift Farm has a lot of horses with a lot of trainers, so they know what they are doing. Does this have anything to do with the KYD positive? Who's to say.
Another interesting horse in this race Reinvestment Risk. This horse finished 2nd in both the Hopeful and the Champagne to the great miler Jackie's Warrior. He then laid a big egg in the BC Juvenile and hadn't been seen since; he was at 6-1 odds, so you know he was well thought of. First time Lasix for him. He has Irad Ortiz.

I'd go with the fit horse Following Sea.

Larry
DevilHorse

I missed one race in the Thursday extravaganza at Belmont, the filly equivalent of the Tremont is the Astoria (named for Astoria Queens, but I digress..).
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=933702
Not sure if Astoria Queens was originally named for John Jacob Astor (of the Waldorf-Astoria fame), but the race was started in 1902 which was 10 years before he died on the Titanic.

The favorite appears to be (yet another) RunHappy miss who broke her maiden on second asking by 11 lengths. The #4 Happy Soul is entered at an amazingly low morning line of 1/2. For 2YOF that is chancey because these mercurial youngsters can change form on a dime, and the weather report is for a chance of storms and a slight chance of some severe storms. Additionally, the card will be on late to increase the chance that there will be rain. This is a fast filly though.

With Following Sea on the card, this could be a commercial in waiting for the RunHappy folks who have poured a lot of money into advertizing and sponsorship over the last few years. It would be good to see that type of spending rewarded on some level. Their campaign to award $100K to any horse that won an open 2YO maiden race at the Belmont, Del Mar, or Saratoga meet last year went unclaimed; it saved them money, but was a black eye for the horse's prospects. The late emergence of the horse's progeny now, especially any 2YOs, must take a gorilla off their backs.

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

I missed one race in the Thursday extravaganza at Belmont, the filly equivalent of the Tremont is the Astoria (named for Astoria Queens, but I digress..).
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=933702
Not sure if Astoria Queens was originally named for John Jacob Astor (of the Waldorf-Astoria fame), but the race was started in 1902 which was 10 years before he died on the Titanic.

The favorite appears to be (yet another) RunHappy miss who broke her maiden on second asking by 11 lengths. The #4 Happy Soul is entered at an amazingly low morning line of 1/2. For 2YOF that is chancey because these mercurial youngsters can change form on a dime, and the weather report is for a chance of storms and a slight chance of some severe storms. Additionally, the card will be on late to increase the chance that there will be rain. This is a fast filly though.

With Following Sea on the card, this could be a commercial in waiting for the RunHappy folks who have poured a lot of money into advertizing and sponsorship over the last few years. It would be good to see that type of spending rewarded on some level. Their campaign to award $100K to any horse that won an open 2YO maiden race at the Belmont, Del Mar, or Saratoga meet last year went unclaimed; it saved them money, but was a black eye for the horse's prospects. The late emergence of the horse's progeny now, especially any 2YOs, must take a gorilla off their backs.

Larry
DevilHorse

It’s my understanding that the advertising money is coming from “Mattress” Mac of Houston. The same guy who bet a couple of million on Essential Quality in the Derby. Hopefully he bets another horse in the Belmont. He is evidently quite a character. Also a good human being. During the Texas freeze he opened his huge store and invited folks to come shelter in his store as he had food, water and generators.

On a different note, Baffert appears to be in deep dodo, after his choice of the second lab confirmed the steroids. I can’t imagine NYRA letting him run horses at Saratoga this summer. It will be interesting to see if The Breeder’s Cup allows his horses to compete. So if you own a promising horse, I would be looking for a new trainer. I find the entire situation really sad as he is obviously a talented trainer, but a very flawed person.

DevilHorse if you have any hot picks please share. As usual I need all the help I can get. I assume the NYRA broadcast will be preempted by NBC so I will miss Maggie’s paddock assessments. I’ll tune in tune in to TVG for tips. If anybody on the NBC team really knows how to handicap they hide it well.

[DevilHorse]

It’s my understanding that the advertising money is coming from “Mattress” Mac of Houston. The same guy who bet a couple of million on Essential Quality in the Derby. Hopefully he bets another horse in the Belmont. He is evidently quite a character. Also a good human being. During the Texas freeze he opened his huge store and invited folks to come shelter in his store as he had food, water and generators.

On a different note, Baffert appears to be in deep dodo, after his choice of the second lab confirmed the steroids. I can’t imagine NYRA letting him run horses at Saratoga this summer. It will be interesting to see if The Breeder’s Cup allows his horses to compete. So if you own a promising horse, I would be looking for a new trainer. I find the entire situation really sad as he is obviously a talented trainer, but a very flawed person.

DevilHorse if you have any hot picks please share. As usual I need all the help I can get. I assume the NYRA broadcast will be preempted by NBC so I will miss Maggie’s paddock assessments. I’ll tune in tune in to TVG for tips. If anybody on the NBC team really knows how to handicap they hide it well.

The 2020 Breeders Cup is at Del Mar. If they don't kick out Baffert in California, then he might continue on.
The 2021 Breeders Cup is at Keeneland in KY. That is not controlled by Churchill Downs. Perhaps Moscow Mitch will have something to say about racing integrity.
The Breeders Cup is its own entity and can of course make decisions about who runs in their stakes races, but then that too is a slippery slope.
Do these various jurisdictions let Churchill Downs decide the length of the penalty for everybody? Does New York give him a 1 year suspension?
I wonder what happens in New Jersey. Baffert has been really good to the people at Monmouth, bringing Authentic and American Pharoah to the Haskell. Do they pile on the band wagon?
What does the road to the Kentucky Derby look like during the next 2 years with Baffert on the sidelines? Do his horses go to other trainers? Does he take a break from buying yearlings? (the breeders will surely like that).

I expect you'll be getting plenty of paddock opinions from TVG and other places. Also, Maggie has a twitter feed at https://twitter.com/MaggieWolfndale . She might pick up there when she's off the air.

I presume you mean tips on the Belmont. I'll make a pick by tomorrow, but last minute on how they look will have to wait till they are on the track. It sounds like it will be hot and humid weather, but dry on Saturday.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Nice day for the Runhappy crew:

Following Sea was as advertized:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
He bolted out, set a fast pace, with some company, but put that one to bed halfway through.
He was hand-ridden to the wire in what must have been the race of the day. 1:08.82, with no real urging is an immense time.

In the Astoria, Happy Soul won by over 11 lengths, although the time was not as impressive:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

There was a little moisture in the track from rain earlier in the day. The track was GOOD for Following Sea's race. Runhappy is a son of Super Saver, who won the Kentucky Derby on a sloppy track and IMHO is a superior mud sire!

In the Wonder Again Stakes, Con Lima was guided into a perfect trip by Flavian Prat (on the East Coast for the Belmont):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

Of note in the 5th Race, and still to be determined if it will have an impact on the Belmont, the 6 horse, Equal Pay was about to take over the race 'in style' when he seemed to take a few bad steps and unseated the rider (Irad Ortiz - top rider). Irad Ortiz fell, and since the horse was in the front, it appeared that as the group of horses passed over Ortiz, it appears that he was hit/brushed. Ortiz was not getting up. Equal Pay did not fall. He righted himself and finished the race, and is apparently fine! Irad Ortiz eventually got up, and appears to be alright, but under an abundance of caution was sent to the hospital for tests. As of 8pm, we are still waiting for CAT Scan results. Irad Ortiz is scheduled to ride Known Agenda in the Belmont.
As mentioned in this forum, the great Irad Ortiz has very gifted brother who is the jockey Jose Ortiz who rides at the same tracks as Irad and was at Belmont today, but not in the race. Seeing that his brother was in this accident, lying on the track, Jose' (and 2 other jockeys) ran out the full length of the stretch to be with Irad. Note that the stretch at Belmont is the longest in North America and the accident occurred at the head of the stretch. Here is a clip of that run by Jose':
https://twitter.com/i/status/1400564977698803717
That is a good 400 meters at least. Bring on the Super Stars competition.

Here is the incident:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1400565183014227969


Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Nice day for the Runhappy crew:

Following Sea was as advertized:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
He bolted out, set a fast pace, with some company, but put that one to bed halfway through.
He was hand-ridden to the wire in what must have been the race of the day. 1:08.82, with no real urging is an immense time.

In the Astoria, Happy Soul won by over 11 lengths, although the time was not as impressive:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

There was a little moisture in the track from rain earlier in the day. The track was GOOD for Following Sea's race. Runhappy is a son of Super Saver, who won the Kentucky Derby on a sloppy track and IMHO is a superior mud sire!

In the Wonder Again Stakes, Con Lima was guided into a perfect trip by Flavian Prat (on the East Coast for the Belmont):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

Of note in the 5th Race, and still to be determined if it will have an impact on the Belmont, the 6 horse, Equal Pay was about to take over the race 'in style' when he seemed to take a few bad steps and unseated the rider (Irad Ortiz - top rider). Irad Ortiz fell, and since the horse was in the front, it appeared that as the group of horses passed over Ortiz, it appears that he was hit/brushed. Ortiz was not getting up. Equal Pay did not fall. He righted himself and finished the race, and is apparently fine! Irad Ortiz eventually got up, and appears to be alright, but under an abundance of caution was sent to the hospital for tests. As of 8pm, we are still waiting for CAT Scan results. Irad Ortiz is scheduled to ride Known Agenda in the Belmont.
As mentioned in this forum, the great Irad Ortiz has very gifted brother who is the jockey Jose Ortiz who rides at the same tracks as Irad and was at Belmont today, but not in the race. Seeing that his brother was in this accident, lying on the track, Jose' (and 2 other jockeys) ran out the full length of the stretch to be with Irad. Note that the stretch at Belmont is the longest in North America and the accident occurred at the head of the stretch. Here is a clip of that run by Jose':
https://twitter.com/i/status/1400564977698803717
That is a good 400 meters at least. Bring on the Super Stars competition.

Here is the incident:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1400565183014227969


Larry
DevilHorse

Irad Ortiz is OK!
"X rays Clean �� be back in a couple weeks ❤️�� @iradortiz":
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3AV1qgW...pg&name=medium

There's a nice picture of Irad and brother Jose in this thread:
https://twitter.com/DRFLivingston/st...26171159715842

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Irad Ortiz is OK!
"X rays Clean �� be back in a couple weeks ❤️�� @iradortiz":
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3AV1qgW...pg&name=medium

There's a nice picture of Irad and brother Jose in this thread:
https://twitter.com/DRFLivingston/st...26171159715842

Larry
DevilHorse

I know there have been other brothers who were jockeys, Eddie and Sam Maple were riding when I first went to the track as a college kid, but have there ever been two brothers who were among the very best riders?

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

As two year olds last year the RunHappy”s were underwhelming. Now at three they seem to be rounding into form. It will be interesting to see how this year’s two year olds run.

[duketaylor]

Have you made a prediction here for the Belmont tomorrow yet?
I'm trying to decide how to bet it. Just spent an hour researching it. Many folks like Known Agenda. I'm shying away from both horses that ran the Preakness. Would love to read your thoughts. Thx!!

I like to bet exotics some, and do little win/place/show bets. I missed an $11,000 payday on the Preakness as I boxed 6 horses on a $1 superfecta and missed one horse.

[DevilHorse]

As two year olds last year the RunHappy”s were underwhelming. Now at three they seem to be rounding into form. It will be interesting to see how this year’s two year olds run.

Happy Soul, who won the Astoria, is a two year old from the second crop.

I would note that Secretariat was a bit of dud with his crops until his 3rd crop, which led all of the the 2YOs in earnings. Go figure. But the first crop as 3YOs did not really develop; RunHappy's first crop are developing.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Have you made a prediction here for the Belmont tomorrow yet?
I'm trying to decide how to bet it. Just spent an hour researching it. Many folks like Known Agenda. I'm shying away from both horses that ran the Preakness. Would love to read your thoughts. Thx!!

I like to bet exotics some, and do little win/place/show bets. I missed an $11,000 payday on the Preakness as I boxed 6 horses on a $1 superfecta and missed one horse.

Good evening all!

It looks like there will be a fast track, on a hot humid day in New York. Perfect Belmont weather.

How will the race go?
First, there are 3 horses that don't look like they belong: 1-Bourbonic, 5-France Go De Ina, and 8-Overtook. They are good horses, and I'd love to own them, but they just haven't shown the consistency at a high level that suggest they belong.

Second, throw out the Kentucky Derby Results. The KYD is a crazy race, with traffic problems for everyone (except any wire to wire front runner who doesn't happen to be here). The Belmont has a) few horses (less chance of being stuck or penalized for maneuvering around a horse) b) less traffic problems c) big sweeping turns that means being wide loses less ground if you are caught 2 or 3 wide.

Third, it is doubtful that any of these horses will ever run another 1 1/2 mile race again, and this will be a tactical race. But there will be a horse that takes the lead? That is likely to be Rock Your World; if he is not challenged, he could control the fractions and keep them moderate and be there at the end. He has the breeding to go the full distance with Empire Maker as a broodmare sire. But he may be dogged closely.

Fourth, Known Agenda will have a great rider, but it will not be Irad Ortiz, who was injured on Thursday; so a step down there. But his trainer owns Belmont and The Belmont. KA has only had one start since he won the Florida Derby in March (3 months). His works 'say' he had a great 5 furlong work, but .. not really. He was only the fastest of 10 horses at 5 furlongs, but 1:01 is a pedestrian time for a horse of this quality. Overall, indicators are so-so for him.

Fifth, Hot Rod Charlie has the most experience in the field and retains the services of Flavien Prat based on his commitment made just after finishing 3rd in the KYD. This horse gets a lot of credit for recent game results, and he is game, but he's won 2 of 8. Maybe a trifecta possibility.

Sixth, Rombauer gains Velasquez and loses Prat as his pilot. Velasquez is having a better year than Prat! Rombauer's game is coming from behind. No better place to do that then Belmont. You need a hot pace for this guy to use that long stretch. We know that Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie can finish at the end of a Classic race at a high rate of speed, so they will not both be coming back to the field. Rombauer has had (just) 3 weeks to recover from his great Preakness victory might be enough for an average Belmont, but will this be that?

Seventh, Essential Quality has not run a bad or mediocre race. His only losing race was the 1 length loss, where he traveled an extra (what was it?) 50 feet by going wide in the turns. He was not making up ground in the KYD as we all anticipated, or was it that the other horses just had extra oomph. Essential Quality looks like a big horse, and he only had 2 races since November to get in shape. Perhaps that's enough for today's TBreds. I think a workout, on a good track, of 5f of 59 or 59.2 is more like a good tightener than 1:01, especially out of 43 horses. This horse has a high cruising speed and will likely stalk Rock Your World and will take over the lead coming out of the far turn. Most jockeys know not to move too soon in the Belmont. Silver Charm and Smarty Jones know that. Luis Saez won't make that mistake, but he has to outkick Rombauer. That will be fun.

I'm picking:

1: Essential Quality
2: Rombauer # Coming up and not getting there
3: Hot Rod Charlie # Making a Stand

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Good evening all!

It looks like there will be a fast track, on a hot humid day in New York. Perfect Belmont weather.

How will the race go?
First, there are 3 horses that don't look like they belong: 1-Bourbonic, 5-France Go De Ina, and 8-Overtook. They are good horses, and I'd love to own them, but they just haven't shown the consistency at a high level that suggest they belong.

Second, throw out the Kentucky Derby Results. The KYD is a crazy race, with traffic problems for everyone (except any wire to wire front runner who doesn't happen to be here). The Belmont has a) few horses (less chance of being stuck or penalized for maneuvering around a horse) b) less traffic problems c) big sweeping turns that means being wide loses less ground if you are caught 2 or 3 wide.

Third, it is doubtful that any of these horses will ever run another 1 1/2 mile race again, and this will be a tactical race. But there will be a horse that takes the lead? That is likely to be Rock Your World; if he is not challenged, he could control the fractions and keep them moderate and be there at the end. He has the breeding to go the full distance with Empire Maker as a broodmare sire. But he may be dogged closely.

Fourth, Known Agenda will have a great rider, but it will not be Irad Ortiz, who was injured on Thursday; so a step down there. But his trainer owns Belmont and The Belmont. KA has only had one start since he won the Florida Derby in March (3 months). His works 'say' he had a great 5 furlong work, but .. not really. He was only the fastest of 10 horses at 5 furlongs, but 1:01 is a pedestrian time for a horse of this quality. Overall, indicators are so-so for him.

Fifth, Hot Rod Charlie has the most experience in the field and retains the services of Flavien Prat based on his commitment made just after finishing 3rd in the KYD. This horse gets a lot of credit for recent game results, and he is game, but he's won 2 of 8. Maybe a trifecta possibility.

Sixth, Rombauer gains Velasquez and loses Prat as his pilot. Velasquez is having a better year than Prat! Rombauer's game is coming from behind. No better place to do that then Belmont. You need a hot pace for this guy to use that long stretch. We know that Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie can finish at the end of a Classic race at a high rate of speed, so they will not both be coming back to the field. Rombauer has had (just) 3 weeks to recover from his great Preakness victory might be enough for an average Belmont, but will this be that?

Seventh, Essential Quality has not run a bad or mediocre race. His only losing race was the 1 length loss, where he traveled an extra (what was it?) 50 feet by going wide in the turns. He was not making up ground in the KYD as we all anticipated, or was it that the other horses just had extra oomph. Essential Quality looks like a big horse, and he only had 2 races since November to get in shape. Perhaps that's enough for today's TBreds. I think a workout, on a good track, of 5f of 59 or 59.2 is more like a good tightener than 1:01, especially out of 43 horses. This horse has a high cruising speed and will likely stalk Rock Your World and will take over the lead coming out of the far turn. Most jockeys know not to move too soon in the Belmont. Silver Charm and Smarty Jones know that. Luis Saez won't make that mistake, but he has to outkick Rombauer. That will be fun.

I'm picking:

1: Essential Quality
2: Rombauer # Coming up and not getting there
3: Hot Rod Charlie # Making a Stand

Larry
DevilHorse

Thanks for the insight. There are several great races today. Some horses seem to be working great, Swiss Skydiver and Knicks Go are two of those. As a handicapper I maybe pay too much attention to workouts, and I know some trainers never work their horses fast. When I see multiple bullet workouts I get excited, so I am all over Swiss Skydiver to rebound from a subpar last race. I also like the jockey change to Jose Ortiz. I also prefer fast speed figures, so Knicks Go has a bullet work on 5/30 and three straight fast speed figures. I am not sure By My Standards is fast enough to keep up with Knicks Go. Hopefully they’re not both the favorites and I can make a little money.

In several of the undercard races I find 3 to 4 horses who could easily win, so it may be a better day for exotics than straight bets. And I am sure there will be some shockers who have me scratching my head. Well I am off to go back to studying the Form.

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

I had assumed NBC would have most of the card on NBC sports, but just discovered most of the card is on FS2. Now I can look forward to great paddock analysis of the horses.

[DevilHorse]

Thanks for the insight. There are several great races today. Some horses seem to be working great, Swiss Skydiver and Knicks Go are two of those. As a handicapper I maybe pay too much attention to workouts, and I know some trainers never work their horses fast. When I see multiple bullet workouts I get excited, so I am all over Swiss Skydiver to rebound from a subpar last race. I also like the jockey change to Jose Ortiz. I also prefer fast speed figures, so Knicks Go has a bullet work on 5/30 and three straight fast speed figures. I am not sure By My Standards is fast enough to keep up with Knicks Go. Hopefully they’re not both the favorites and I can make a little money.

In several of the undercard races I find 3 to 4 horses who could easily win, so it may be a better day for exotics than straight bets. And I am sure there will be some shockers who have me scratching my head. Well I am off to go back to studying the Form.

I'll state the obvious, that Knicks Go is a different horse since he switched barns to Brad Cox. All horses seem to have a hangover coming west from the Saudi/Dubai races. Knicks Go hasn't raced for 3.5 months. We'll see if he is up to it in this mile race. Mischievious Alex, other than being off for 2 months, looks primed for a best effort; before Authentic, I would have ID'd his breeding as a miler. He has obviously been sharpened by 3 races and a slight pause. Dr. Post has a tightener. By My Standards will need a furious charge to make noise here.

Swiss Skywalker will benefit from her last start. So often (not unlike first time starters) benefit from the first start of the year. Some things you can't simulate in training miles.

Does anyone have any Belmont picks? I'm guaranteed NOT to have the cold triple.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Irad Ortiz is OK!
"X rays Clean �� be back in a couple weeks ❤️�� @iradortiz":
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3AV1qgW...pg&name=medium

There's a nice picture of Irad and brother Jose in this thread:
https://twitter.com/DRFLivingston/st...26171159715842

Larry
DevilHorse

Wow, just saw the helmet that Irad Ortiz was wearing when he was in his accident earlier this week (chronicled above). He WAS clipped in the head by one of the horses and this is what happened:
helmet1.jpg
Good to see precautions work out.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Based on the Belmont post parade, Rombauer looked the best Overtook the worst.
Essential Quality looked good though.

Larry
DevilHorse