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  1. #121
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    I continue to obsess about Essential Quality. I have heard several trainers and commentators talk about how you canít be wide around both turns and expect to win. Yet he was. Was that a bad ride by an overconfident jockey? I have seen charts that show how far each horse actually travels in a race, but today I canít seem to find one. Hopefully you can provide a link. With the exception of Baffertís horse everything else was formful. While Mandaloun ran terrible in the Louisiana Derby, I heard a lot of talk about how he had trained in Louisville. One other observation is that the Fairgrounds horses are running lights out a Churchill Downs. I am disappointed as racing needs a super horse. I was hopeful that was EQ.

    One other comment, check out the fractions on Jackie Warriors race. Four furlongs in under 44. He would have beaten Gamine and won the race with Whitmore. I think I know the Breederís Cup sprint champ if he stays healthy.
    So I found the answer to my question in the DRF. Essential Quality traveled 68 feet, 8 1/2 lengths farther than Medina Spirit in the Derby. Cox still believes he was the best horse as a he was also bumped out of the gate. I havenít seen a head on view of the horses leaving the gate, so I am not sure how severe it was. Like all of life luck plays a big part, so we will see how he performs next time out. Also reading Baffertís comments, he was as surprised as the rest of us. He said he, Baffert, was relaxed and having a good time being out of the spotlight. Evidently so was his horse. All in all a great race with the top four all distinguishing themselves. As far a I could tell, and I am no expert, the bottom half of the finishers should go try some easier races. We will see what newcomers join in the next two races.

    One other comment is how many years until the Triple Crown Races get spaced out some more? Two weeks between the Derby and the Preakness is crazy. The best horses typically race at most about every four weeks. The best of these are multi million dollar animals. If nothing else I would think insurance costs will dictate the change. Hopefully it will not take a tragedy with a top horse dying in front of millions of television viewers to cause this change.

  2. #122
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    So I found the answer to my question in the DRF. Essential Quality traveled 68 feet, 8 1/2 lengths farther than Medina Spirit in the Derby. Cox still believes he was the best horse as a he was also bumped out of the gate. I haven’t seen a head on view of the horses leaving the gate, so I am not sure how severe it was. Like all of life luck plays a big part, so we will see how he performs next time out. Also reading Baffert’s comments, he was as surprised as the rest of us. He said he, Baffert, was relaxed and having a good time being out of the spotlight. Evidently so was his horse. All in all a great race with the top four all distinguishing themselves. As far a I could tell, and I am no expert, the bottom half of the finishers should go try some easier races. We will see what newcomers join in the next two races.

    One other comment is how many years until the Triple Crown Races get spaced out some more? Two weeks between the Derby and the Preakness is crazy. The best horses typically race at most about every four weeks. The best of these are multi million dollar animals. If nothing else I would think insurance costs will dictate the change. Hopefully it will not take a tragedy with a top horse dying in front of millions of television viewers to cause this change.
    Just got back into town so I can comment.

    Keeping a horse to the outside, so they won't get locked in, is a typical and reasonable strategy, if you want to avoid getting stuck with a superior horse. Most believe EQ was that. But it is at the expense of distance as you point out. Hindsight tells us he could have used some of those 8.5 lengths. So many horses have won with those rail skimming rides Bo-Rail used to give, but then he didn't win by a nose/neck. In the Derby, traffic problems hurt more than extra distance; ask Risen Star.

    I don't think trainers have their horses in top form every time out either. Mandaloun not doing his best, the last time out, is no surprise. These horses are torqued up with feed, exercise, and (legal) medication so they are ready to roll on any particular day. But you can't do that every time they race. They would go loco. Few horses can win every time out (i.e., not with their top effort, or with top preparation).

    Beyer's from this weekend to address your discussion:
    102 - Medina Spirit # Track was fast, but he hugged the rail. Brave horse.
    105 - Maxfield # Looked like a winner all the way. Big impressive monster.
    99 - Gamine # by observation was not at her best, but won by 4
    95 - Malathaat # Won by a length under scale weight
    92 - Shedaresthedevil # Won a very competitive race by about a length
    91 - Jackie's Warrior # Was an eye-catching win, but not as impressive relative to the standard for that distance

    We'll see when the Preakness lines come out what EQ's Beyer was. I wouldn't be surprised if it was higher than Medina Spirit's; he did more to finish within a length. I immediately saw that he was slammed from his right by Highly Motivated and had to pull back then expended a lot of energy to change gears and get into stalking position. Wow. Big effort!

    We all want a big horse, but it may not be the KY Derby winner. Arrogate was not that horse. Curlin was well thought of, but didn't win the Derby. Affirmed vs. Alydar did a lot for horse racing, but Affirmed was no super horse. IMHO. If a horse wins the Triple Crown, by less than a length over a rival in each race, does that merit superhorse status? I don't think so. Win by 5 or so now and then; or near record times.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  3. #123
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    So I found the answer to my question in the DRF. Essential Quality traveled 68 feet, 8 1/2 lengths farther than Medina Spirit in the Derby. Cox still believes he was the best horse as a he was also bumped out of the gate. I havenít seen a head on view of the horses leaving the gate, so I am not sure how severe it was. Like all of life luck plays a big part, so we will see how he performs next time out. Also reading Baffertís comments, he was as surprised as the rest of us. He said he, Baffert, was relaxed and having a good time being out of the spotlight. Evidently so was his horse. All in all a great race with the top four all distinguishing themselves. As far a I could tell, and I am no expert, the bottom half of the finishers should go try some easier races. We will see what newcomers join in the next two races.

    One other comment is how many years until the Triple Crown Races get spaced out some more? Two weeks between the Derby and the Preakness is crazy. The best horses typically race at most about every four weeks. The best of these are multi million dollar animals. If nothing else I would think insurance costs will dictate the change. Hopefully it will not take a tragedy with a top horse dying in front of millions of television viewers to cause this change.
    Here is a thread on twitter that points to some detail on how all of the horses traveled in the derby:
    https://twitter.com/truxtonstables/s...85211745193992

    Of course, anyone who watches basketball knows, getting strategic position in an athletic contest is all important. These things are not done in a vacuum. Even golf is not only the golfer against the course; I saw on the ESPN top ten when a golf shot ricocheted off another golfer's ball to go in. The KYD is not a Time Trial, it is a competition. Medina Spirit had the strategy and the speed to get his nose to the wire first. But there will be other days. This discussion will just create better odds on Medina Spirit in the Preakness.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  4. #124

    Preakness Early Warm-Up

    We'll have to see what the weekend will bring for us, but in the meantime, the Preakness news is starting to filter in.

    Essential Quality will wait till the Belmont, with the Travers in mind long term:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...ossibility_123
    Oooh, does that mean that Medina Spirit goes to Baffert favorite race Haskell at Monmouth Park?

    Also, here is an early run down of possible Preakness odds, but not necessarily starters:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...ina_Spirit_123

    Larry
    DevilHorse

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