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  1. #21

    Derby Pool #2

    Folks,

    The KYD Pool #2 is Out. It is an early guide to those horses that have already made an impression as to their predisposition to run well on the first Saturday in May...
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...36&param3=1496
    I'd say there is a 50/50 chance the winner of that race is not on this list, but what do I know.

    Here is a list of possible odds (way too early, but it is an expanded list of names).
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...Derby_odds_123
    Good to see Fauci at 150 to 1. I heard that he was working with the WHO today in the new Biden Administration. I guess that is the World Horse Organization??

    Does anyone remember the Dosage Theory predictor of being the winner of the KYD?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dosage_Index

    The Dosage Theory was a way to measure "Aptitudinal" ability of a Thoroughbred to win the Kentucky Derby, based on their pedigree.
    If you had sprinters in your pedigree, you were a sprinter (high dosage) and you were not winning the KYD.
    If you had classic horses in your pedigree (lower than 4.00 dosage) then you qualified.
    Makes perfect sense, right?!

    Part of the theory (by observation) was also that you had to start at least once as a 2YO.

    As time went on, there were no exceptions to this exceptional theory, then Strike The Gold won the KYD.
    His dosage was too high. So, like any good theorist, the problem was his ancestors must have been missing from the list of horses, so they relabeled the recent sires in his ancestry to force Strike The Gold's Dosage value under 4.00.
    Then more horses above 4.00, and who didn't start as 2YO, started to win, and the theory was kaput.
    But Dosage is still a good indicator of a horses genetic makeup and tendencies.
    Use this, and knowing which sires are turfers and mudders, and this will help to fill out your handicapping arsenal of tools.

    I don't know how many times you have a race where you have horses that show nothing but fast race lines, and the weather is muddy. So all you have to go on is pedigrees, trainers, and jockeys (and how the horses look on the track). Having a list of sires that produce mudders is valueable.
    I love the Super Savers and anything that has Gone West in the pedigree in the mud; these bloodlines seem to love the mud. Recognize the symbols for mudders in the race programs too. Usually a big asterisk next to the horse's name. But, I digress.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  2. #22

    Pegasus

    Folks,

    Here are the PPs for the $3M Pegasus World Cup Invitational:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1721892
    We'll see if Knicks Go can continue his outrageous return to form since switching to the Brad Cox barn.

    Frankly, I think this is a watered down race this year. I even think it is a stretch to call it a World Cup.
    All of these horses have run every race of their careers in the USA. There is some ownership from overseas, but that is common in TBred racing.

    There is another race, the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1578401

    This race is for ONLY $1M, and the furthest any horse comes from has been Woodbine in Canada.
    The favorite here is a familiar name to this group, Anothertwistafate, who won the El Camino Real in 2019 at Golden Gate Park.
    The field also included the 2019 2YO Juvenile winner Storm The Court.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  3. #23
    Forgot to mention that one of those million dollar babies is making his debut on the Pegasus undercard:
    The soon to be immortal (or forgettable) Ghazaaly will be in the 6th race at Gulfstream Park.

    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=860946

    Ghazaaly, not quite costing a ghazillion bucks (only $1.05M), is trained by Todd Pletcher, which means that he will be ready to win at first asking, if he has the talent. He has a couple of bullet works, but with small groupings and decent times. He is a son of Curlin and must be a looker as his dam has no production record; but the 2nd dam produced a couple of $1M winners (Alternation, Higher Power). So the connections are hoping that talent skips a generation on the dam side. The broodmare sire is Giant's Causeway, who's no slouch, but this one could be headed to the grass without a big effort.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

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