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  1. #21

    Derby Pool #2

    Folks,

    The KYD Pool #2 is Out. It is an early guide to those horses that have already made an impression as to their predisposition to run well on the first Saturday in May...
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...36&param3=1496
    I'd say there is a 50/50 chance the winner of that race is not on this list, but what do I know.

    Here is a list of possible odds (way too early, but it is an expanded list of names).
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...Derby_odds_123
    Good to see Fauci at 150 to 1. I heard that he was working with the WHO today in the new Biden Administration. I guess that is the World Horse Organization??

    Does anyone remember the Dosage Theory predictor of being the winner of the KYD?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dosage_Index

    The Dosage Theory was a way to measure "Aptitudinal" ability of a Thoroughbred to win the Kentucky Derby, based on their pedigree.
    If you had sprinters in your pedigree, you were a sprinter (high dosage) and you were not winning the KYD.
    If you had classic horses in your pedigree (lower than 4.00 dosage) then you qualified.
    Makes perfect sense, right?!

    Part of the theory (by observation) was also that you had to start at least once as a 2YO.

    As time went on, there were no exceptions to this exceptional theory, then Strike The Gold won the KYD.
    His dosage was too high. So, like any good theorist, the problem was his ancestors must have been missing from the list of horses, so they relabeled the recent sires in his ancestry to force Strike The Gold's Dosage value under 4.00.
    Then more horses above 4.00, and who didn't start as 2YO, started to win, and the theory was kaput.
    But Dosage is still a good indicator of a horses genetic makeup and tendencies.
    Use this, and knowing which sires are turfers and mudders, and this will help to fill out your handicapping arsenal of tools.

    I don't know how many times you have a race where you have horses that show nothing but fast race lines, and the weather is muddy. So all you have to go on is pedigrees, trainers, and jockeys (and how the horses look on the track). Having a list of sires that produce mudders is valueable.
    I love the Super Savers and anything that has Gone West in the pedigree in the mud; these bloodlines seem to love the mud. Recognize the symbols for mudders in the race programs too. Usually a big asterisk next to the horse's name. But, I digress.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  2. #22

    Pegasus

    Folks,

    Here are the PPs for the $3M Pegasus World Cup Invitational:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1721892
    We'll see if Knicks Go can continue his outrageous return to form since switching to the Brad Cox barn.

    Frankly, I think this is a watered down race this year. I even think it is a stretch to call it a World Cup.
    All of these horses have run every race of their careers in the USA. There is some ownership from overseas, but that is common in TBred racing.

    There is another race, the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1578401

    This race is for ONLY $1M, and the furthest any horse comes from has been Woodbine in Canada.
    The favorite here is a familiar name to this group, Anothertwistafate, who won the El Camino Real in 2019 at Golden Gate Park.
    The field also included the 2019 2YO Juvenile winner Storm The Court.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  3. #23
    Forgot to mention that one of those million dollar babies is making his debut on the Pegasus undercard:
    The soon to be immortal (or forgettable) Ghazaaly will be in the 6th race at Gulfstream Park.

    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=860946

    Ghazaaly, not quite costing a ghazillion bucks (only $1.05M), is trained by Todd Pletcher, which means that he will be ready to win at first asking, if he has the talent. He has a couple of bullet works, but with small groupings and decent times. He is a son of Curlin and must be a looker as his dam has no production record; but the 2nd dam produced a couple of $1M winners (Alternation, Higher Power). So the connections are hoping that talent skips a generation on the dam side. The broodmare sire is Giant's Causeway, who's no slouch, but this one could be headed to the grass without a big effort.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Did someone say they watch more when Oaklawn opens?
    That will happen this coming friday!

    That could only mean that the Smarty Jones Stakes for 3YOs is happening.
    Here is an advanced copy of the Past Performances, courtesy of Briswatch (a Brisnet service):
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1277272

    This would be a good time to allow me to express my appreciation to Brisnet whose URLs I cite often in our forum. It is a public service, paid for by stables, tracks, owners, and breeders, with the hope that it enhances the enjoyment of fans, including our readers here. I certainly enjoy it. There are other PPs available from the Daily Racing Form (DRF), Equibase, and others, but none as plentiful as Brisnet. There have been some secondary sources, that have attempted to rearrange the pointers to Briswatch to make it even easier to find the individual race PPs. I only wish Brisnet allowed those Fans to continue on with their efforts.

    Also, I can see why the Smarty Jones Stakes are at Oaklawn Park. Although he started at Philadelphia Park (his connections are in PA and stands stud there), he ran 3 of his 9 races at Oaklawn Park taking that path to the Kentucky Derby. That is worthy of a Stakes Race.

    But explain to me why the Secretariat Stakes is run at Arlington? He ran/won one race there? Were they that desperate for a big name for a race?

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Caddo River won the Smarty Jones Stakes yesterday:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1352742632707944449 Here is the stretch drive.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    By 10 over the 2nd place horse (Cowan) and another 7 lengths to the 3rd place horse (not worth mentioning - not his real name).
    He received a 91 Beyer figure (not bad for a lone on the lead win at 1 mile).

    This horse is a contender!! We will no doubt see him in other preps soon. He did it easy (easily if you are into grammar; horseplayers are not).

    Remember the Pegasus is being carried on NBC today just before 6p.m. EST.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Forgot to mention that one of those million dollar babies is making his debut on the Pegasus undercard:
    The soon to be immortal (or forgettable) Ghazaaly will be in the 6th race at Gulfstream Park.

    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=860946

    Ghazaaly, not quite costing a ghazillion bucks (only $1.05M), is trained by Todd Pletcher, which means that he will be ready to win at first asking, if he has the talent. He has a couple of bullet works, but with small groupings and decent times. He is a son of Curlin and must be a looker as his dam has no production record; but the 2nd dam produced a couple of $1M winners (Alternation, Higher Power). So the connections are hoping that talent skips a generation on the dam side. The broodmare sire is Giant's Causeway, who's no slouch, but this one could be headed to the grass without a big effort.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    OK, lots of goodies today.

    Ghazaaly had a nice first start. Showed some early speed, dropped back, and came on at the end to finish third. But he was not the story of the race! Another first starter, owned by Godolphin, had a smashing debut and stamped himself as a horse to watch. The beautifully named Prevalence waited for the stretch and blew away the field. His third dam is the stakes winning Desert Stormer (so good she has a stakes named after her); second dam is a stakes winner. Add Prevalence to your Derby watch list!!
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Raise your hand if you had Ridin With Biden in yesterday's 2nd race at Gulfstream Park? Well, good hunch bet, but he didn't win. But Another Duke did. A better hunch bet for this crowd. First time Lasix angle paid $16.00 . Any lawyers out there? American Law (by Constitution) picked up the place spot.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Did you know that Constitution is the leading 2nd year stallion earner as of the end of 2020 (not American Pharoah)? Interesting.

    Earlier in the thread, there was a question about horse deaths. I spied an article in the Asbury Park Press this morning that talks about deaths at that track this year, and over the years. Some statistics nationally too. A gruesome subject, but the sport does try to improve itself. Attempts to weed out the bad trainers and limit bad on-track behavior (whipping rules) are very visible at this time.
    https://www.app.com/story/sports/202...ns/4209288001/

    Word on the street is that Caddo River came out of his race fine and will take the Oaklawn Park road to the KYD.

    The Holy Bull is next week. It is getting to be time to sift out the contenders from the pretenders, but I don't think we do that with sprints.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Folks,

    Here are the PPs for the $3M Pegasus World Cup Invitational:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1721892
    We'll see if Knicks Go can continue his outrageous return to form since switching to the Brad Cox barn.

    Frankly, I think this is a watered down race this year. I even think it is a stretch to call it a World Cup.
    All of these horses have run every race of their careers in the USA. There is some ownership from overseas, but that is common in TBred racing.

    There is another race, the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1578401

    This race is for ONLY $1M, and the furthest any horse comes from has been Woodbine in Canada.
    The favorite here is a familiar name to this group, Anothertwistafate, who won the El Camino Real in 2019 at Golden Gate Park.
    The field also included the 2019 2YO Juvenile winner Storm The Court.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Knicks Go dominated the field in the Pegasus yesterday. He had a 108 Beyer, which is the only above 100 Beyer on the day.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Brad Cox has done an amazing job of turning this horse around from where he was. Jesus' Team, last year's late bloomer on the 3YO circuit, took second. Does Knicks Go now go to the Middle East and challenge the world in the Saudi Cup? It is really tough on horses to race there and return. Arrogate was never the same.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  7. #27
    Here is a quick overall view of where we are 3 months and a week out from the KYD:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...prep_races_123

    With 30 KYD points being the unofficial low water mark to get into the Kentucky Derby (assuming it is a May running date) and one or two viable impressive maiden winners appearing every week, it certainly looks like it will be a fun spring, with full fields in the prep races.
    I would note that the article cited above suggests that the Withers is this coming weekend, while other sources suggest that it is being run Feb 6; we will know soon enough.

    This weekend will start the march toward the Run For The Roses in earnest. If trainers have a good one in their barn, they are running out of time to get a maiden win in them and get enough KYD points to qualify.

    My top 5 (in no particular sequence - must have more than 1 start) are:

    Essential Quality - has taken on the highest quality horses and looks the part
    Senor Buscador - His Springboard win was breathtaking, but that was on Lasix. And he (probably beat nobody)
    Life Is Good - Is really good. And Baffert always has a horse at single digit odds at CD.
    Dr. Schivel - Once he broke his maiden (in CA) he looked really good
    Jackie's Warrior - One bad race; looked golden before the BC Juvenile

    What's yours?

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  8. #28
    Let's get the ball rolling:

    Saturday at Gulfstream Park is the 7f Swale Stakes:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=860946
    Previously mentioned impressive maiden winner, By George, will be in the running with other impressive horses like Poppy's Pride and Drain The Clock.

    Later in the card is the KYD points race, the Holy Bull Stakes:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1578401
    This features high priced colt, and impressive maiden winner, Prime Factor. Also entered are other impressive colts like Papetu, although not too many big names.

    It is worth mentioning at this juncture a horse like Swale for whom the first race is named.
    http://pastthegrandstand.blogspot.co...-of-swale.html
    He was a brilliant horse, and likely would have produced a second prong of the Seattle Slew line (other than A.P. Indy) had he lived.
    Swale died just days after his Belmont victory.

    It always confuses me why it is that Swale, a horse that was sired by a Classic Winner, who produced Classic Winners, is memorialized on a 7f sprint race, while Holy Bull, a sprinter, sired by a sprinter (who produces sprinters in the breeding shed), is memorialized on a 1 1/16 mile race that leads to the Kentucky Derby. Swale won the KYD; Holy Bull finished 12th in the KYD. What are the people in GP thinking? or smoking??

    Also on Saturday is the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1174201
    The race will have Spielberg, Medina Spirit, and Hot Rod Charlie competing.
    Spielberg was very expensive and finally woke up and won his most recent race; he seems to like activity and runs every young horse race.
    Medina Spirit finished a fast closing second to the highly thought of Life Is Good.
    Hot Rod Charlie finished 2nd to Essential Quality in the BC Juvenile at huge odds; was that a fluke, or did he finally show his true colors.

    Also on the Santa Anita card is the second start back of King Guillermo in the San Pasqual:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=838715
    His first start after a long layoff was ordinary. Let's see if he's in better shape now.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  9. #29

    Crowded Strike

    Here's a new shooter for you.

    In today's 5th race at Aqueduct, first time starter for Brad Cox, Crowded Strike, has a slow start and INHALES the lead horse, who is extending his lead on the rest of the field.

    Enjoy the stretch run video:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1354881845092098056

    This 3YO son of More Than Ready was a $185k purchase from the 2018 Keeneland sale as a weanling (the year he was born). I expect we might see him in some Derby preps. Since he is a Brad Cox trainee, he could appear anywhere, but he is in NYC now, so he could be taking that route. Cox has so many good ones, you'd think he would keep them away from each other as best as he could. Perhaps March 6th Gotham.

    Larry
    Cohen
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 01-28-2021 at 03:41 PM.

  10. #30
    Oh no. What is the matter with Authentic?
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1354808223631437838

    Snow Job.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  11. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Let's get the ball rolling:

    Saturday at Gulfstream Park is the 7f Swale Stakes:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=860946
    Previously mentioned impressive maiden winner, By George, will be in the running with other impressive horses like Poppy's Pride and Drain The Clock.

    Later in the card is the KYD points race, the Holy Bull Stakes:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1578401
    This features high priced colt, and impressive maiden winner, Prime Factor. Also entered are other impressive colts like Papetu, although not too many big names.

    It is worth mentioning at this juncture a horse like Swale for whom the first race is named.
    http://pastthegrandstand.blogspot.co...-of-swale.html
    He was a brilliant horse, and likely would have produced a second prong of the Seattle Slew line (other than A.P. Indy) had he lived.
    Swale died just days after his Belmont victory.

    It always confuses me why it is that Swale, a horse that was sired by a Classic Winner, who produced Classic Winners, is memorialized on a 7f sprint race, while Holy Bull, a sprinter, sired by a sprinter (who produces sprinters in the breeding shed), is memorialized on a 1 1/16 mile race that leads to the Kentucky Derby. Swale won the KYD; Holy Bull finished 12th in the KYD. What are the people in GP thinking? or smoking??

    Also on Saturday is the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1174201
    The race will have Spielberg, Medina Spirit, and Hot Rod Charlie competing.
    Spielberg was very expensive and finally woke up and won his most recent race; he seems to like activity and runs every young horse race.
    Medina Spirit finished a fast closing second to the highly thought of Life Is Good.
    Hot Rod Charlie finished 2nd to Essential Quality in the BC Juvenile at huge odds; was that a fluke, or did he finally show his true colors.

    Also on the Santa Anita card is the second start back of King Guillermo in the San Pasqual:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=838715
    His first start after a long layoff was ordinary. Let's see if he's in better shape now.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Lots to talk about.

    In the Swale Stakes, Drain The Clock put in a powerful performance, and will join the big boys for the regular derby trail races.
    https://www.paulickreport.com/news/t...at-gulfstream/
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    By George did not look like he belonged. The commentators were "hands-off" this horse based on how his stable was doing at the meet (1 for 19 [now 20]). It was most interesting as By George was a solid 3rd choice, but the professional handicappers were extremely wary of this horse's prospects in this race and didn't touch him; and they were right (on the money). DTC earned an 86 Beyer for this race.
    Also of note, Drain The Clock's only loss was a Did Not Finish (DNF) when the jockey fell off the horse because he was disoriented when his boot fell apart; this earned a surprise Duke and Zion Williamson exploding shoe mention/comparison on the telecast. Let's hope that Drain The Clock goes on to as good a career as ZW appears to be.

    In the main event, Holy Bull Stakes, Greatest Honour looked like a top horse, trouncing his rivals with a powerful stretch drive.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Favorite, Prime Factor had no answer in the stretch. This was Greatest Honour's 5th start, and he had the experience and conditioning to compete here, while Prime Factor did not. GH earned an 89 Beyer for this race.

    Also on the GP card was a win by favorite Zaajel in the Forward Gal Stakes. She looks like a good one for Pletcher.

    On the left coast, Medina Spirit won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
    This was a great horse race!
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1355665264277245957
    Medina Spirit earned a 91 Beyer for hanging in like grim death, in a wire to wire effort, against both Hot Rod Charlie and Roman Centurian.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    If you remember what it was like when Affirmed wouldn't let Alydar get by him, then you know how Medina Spirit dug in. This could be a fun horse.
    Spielberg reverted back to his old form and proved to be a one hit wonder.

    For those of you who are a little longer in the tooth, you may remember Bob and Beverly Lewis as the owners of Serena's Song, Silver Charm, and Charismatic. Silver Charm was another gritty competitor. Always very nice people; it is wonderful that these patrons of the sport have a plank in the road to the KYD.

    Heard on the broadcast yesterday, during the chit chat between the commentators, that Bob Baffert has a horse that will start in a couple of weeks that is already taking money on the Derby Future Pools. But the horse hasn't even had his first start. Baffert already has one of the top colts, Life Is Good, in the barn, yet a horse that hasn't started yet is taking serious money (12-1) in the Derby Pool. Are people nuts?? BTW, if the horse is going to be the fastest horse in the world, might as well name him after one of the richest guys in the world. I give you... Bezos! I'll let you know when he is in to go. But you can still change names before a horse starts, or if there are mitigating circumstances (I could, but I don't feel like digressing on this right now).

    King Guillermo was miserable in the San Pasqual. I mean ran really poorly for a second start. His big gap in starts last year may have indicated a bad injury (my guess). I think he needs to go into allowance company.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 01-31-2021 at 09:51 AM.

  12. #32

    Find New Roads

    Another one of our high priced babies is having his first start. Find New Roads is by Quality Road and sold at Keeneland as a yearling for 925K. He will make his first start on Thursday Feb 4, against a group of 3YO maidens at 6f. Find New Roads is trained by Brad Cox. The weather should be good, and he is sporting 3 crosses to Secretariat through different mares. Third dam is Weekend Surprise, the dam of A. P. Indy and Summer Squall.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=990290

    Cox is good with first time starters, although Quality Road produces better fillies than colts. There are 4 maidens with experience in against him, and a $430k first time starter too. His works look good, but not overwhelming. Could be the post time favorite because of Cox, although one of the previous starters had a good last race.


    Larry
    DevilHorse

  13. #33

    Big Saturday 2/6/2021 - On The Road

    Leading up to the Carolina game, there will be several big races for 3YOs leading to the KYD that provide points.

    At Aqueduct (around 4:25 Eastern) is the Withers:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1050920
    Eagle Orb, Capo Kane, and Donegal Bay look like the contenders for that one.
    The weather will be wet the day before, and possibly the day of that race.

    At Tampa Bay Downs, ( around 5:02 Eastern) is the Sam F. Davis:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1867404
    Known Agenda and Hidden Stash seem to be the favorites there, but Lucky Law is an undefeated colt with a lot of bullet workouts; watch out for that one. (all 3 of these horses are first time mentions in this forum).

    In California, Santa Anita, without KYD points, is the San Vicente (6:00Eastern - tip off?):
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1174201
    This race has comparable money to the previous two races, but no KYD points. An odd choice (to enter here and not up the road), especially with the El Camino Real next week at Golden Gate Park (with KYD Points). Much better horses than the Sam F. Davis.
    It includes snappy Baffert first out winner Concert Tour (Street Sense) and an eye catching winner in his debut race The Chosen Vron (Vronsky); have to bet Concert Tour on pedigree and trainer though.
    A couple of other chancey horses with credentials makes this an interesting race that will give you a price on the winner.

    Also, for the fillies at Santa Anita, the Las Virgenes:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...390&param3=390
    Kalypso and Moonlight D'oro look to duke it out.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Another one of our high priced babies is having his first start. Find New Roads is by Quality Road and sold at Keeneland as a yearling for 925K. He will make his first start on Thursday Feb 4, against a group of 3YO maidens at 6f. Find New Roads is trained by Brad Cox. The weather should be good, and he is sporting 3 crosses to Secretariat through different mares. Third dam is Weekend Surprise, the dam of A. P. Indy and Summer Squall.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=990290

    Cox is good with first time starters, although Quality Road produces better fillies than colts. There are 4 maidens with experience in against him, and a $430k first time starter too. His works look good, but not overwhelming. Could be the post time favorite because of Cox, although one of the previous starters had a good last race.


    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Find New Roads did not look like a world beater:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    He got off slow and was 4 behind by the first furlong. He lost by about 12, but he was not ridden for the last furlong or so. He will learn and I'd give him another shot. That first race of experience is huge.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  15. #35
    Lick your chops with this article and update on many top horses. Stuff will be happening:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/bl...nal_debuts_123

    Who you looking forward too?

    Special Picture:
    https://twitter.com/nmrhof/status/13...683778/photo/1
    This Sept. 13, 1941 issue of “The Saturday Evening Post,” featuring Man o’ War with his groom Will Harbut on the cover.
    The first Big Red.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 02-04-2021 at 09:56 PM.

  16. #36

    Bezos ITG Sunday 2/5/2021

    OK, Bezos, the buzz horse of the week is in to go this Sunday at Santa Anita Race 5:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=838715

    If you recall, it was overheard on the TVG show last week that this horse was mentioned as a (possibly) better talent than their already highly rated stablemate Life Is Good.

    This buzz horse even gets his own article:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...anta_Anita_123

    Bezos will have Mike Smith on board. Baffert will also be saddling Tivoli Twirl, who has a similar price and just as impressive workouts. There are other 'just as impressive starters' in this field as well, so you can get a price if you can sift through the hype and fog to pick out a winner. Baffert wins with first time babies at a 35% clip, and he has 2 of them in this race. Mr. Impossible finished 2nd to the impressive Concert Tour; as mentioned in a handicapping tip, second time out usually sees a big improvement, so this one is also worthy of consideration. Looks like a triple box!

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  17. #37

    Triple Crown Nominees by Stallion

    Here is a pointer to the sires of Triple Crown horses ranked by number of nominated horses:
    https://twitter.com/truxtonstables/s...683074/photo/1

    115 sires for 326 foals, but I think there are supplemental payments (there didn't used to be).

    Obviously, these nominations were progressive. Payments were made starting when these horses were yearlings, with increasingly bigger payments as time continued. For first year stallions, this could be tricky. I don't know how there are 6 Runhappy horses that merit payments; I'm not sure there are 4 Runhappy wins! Speighster (4) and Outwork (3) are having much better years. Perhaps not surprised that Honor Code only has 3; they are after all late developers. They will be better 3YOs later in the year.

    No surprise that Into Mischief (20) and Curlin (14)/Uncle Mo (14) lead the way. California Chrome having only 1 is a surprise, but then they seem to be grass oriented at this point. I expect that they will get better as they figure out what kind of mares to breed to him. Air Force Blue only has 1; he is a Euro siring sensation. I consider any firster I see of his. Munnings has been having a great year; he only has 1 foal nominated. Nyquist (10) is well represented.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Leading up to the Carolina game, there will be several big races for 3YOs leading to the KYD that provide points.

    At Aqueduct (around 4:25 Eastern) is the Withers:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1050920
    Eagle Orb, Capo Kane, and Donegal Bay look like the contenders for that one.
    The weather will be wet the day before, and possibly the day of that race.

    At Tampa Bay Downs, ( around 5:02 Eastern) is the Sam F. Davis:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1867404
    Known Agenda and Hidden Stash seem to be the favorites there, but Lucky Law is an undefeated colt with a lot of bullet workouts; watch out for that one. (all 3 of these horses are first time mentions in this forum).

    In California, Santa Anita, without KYD points, is the San Vicente (6:00Eastern - tip off?):
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1174201
    This race has comparable money to the previous two races, but no KYD points. An odd choice (to enter here and not up the road), especially with the El Camino Real next week at Golden Gate Park (with KYD Points). Much better horses than the Sam F. Davis.
    It includes snappy Baffert first out winner Concert Tour (Street Sense) and an eye catching winner in his debut race The Chosen Vron (Vronsky); have to bet Concert Tour on pedigree and trainer though.
    A couple of other chancey horses with credentials makes this an interesting race that will give you a price on the winner.

    Also, for the fillies at Santa Anita, the Las Virgenes:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...390&param3=390
    Kalypso and Moonlight D'oro look to duke it out.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    At the Withers, Capo Kane had the lead in the stretch but flattened out and had nothing to offer; finishing 3rd:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    The actual favorite, Risk Taking, made a bold move and won going away. An 89 Beyer for the son of Medaglia D'oro.

    At the Sam F. Davis, Candy Man Rocket put in a strong effort, stalking the lead, to win with an 85 Beyer for the son of Candy Ride.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Known Agenda had a terrible start, did not move up during the race until putting in a furious run in the stretch to finish 5th by 4 lengths.

    At the San Vicente, in the best 3YO race of the day, prohibitive favorite Concert Tour dueled with stablemate Freedom Fighter, to win by 1/2 length.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Concert Tour was awarded a 94 Beyer. The Chosen Vron dueled with Freedom Fighter early in the race, while Concert Tour stalked the pace. I thought The Chosen Vron felt a bit bothered along the rail (his head was twisted halfway through the turn when he dropped back 6 or 7 lengths); he then came on fastest of all in the stretch, just 3.5 lengths back. I think we will hear from The Chosen Vron again. No KYD Points were up for grabs in this race.

    At the Las Virgenes for 3YO Fillies, Moonlight D'oro beat Kalypso in a rousing edition, getting an 85 Beyer.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    This capped off a great weekend for sire Medaglia D'oro.

    Next week we start seeing the big guns and the first 50 point KYD race.
    The Risen Star at the Fair Grounds will be raced at the Fair Grounds for 50 KYD points.
    The Southwest Stakes and the El Camino Real will be raced for 10 KYD points.

    But big horses will show up, and it is about time.
    Expect Keepmeinmind, Essential Quality, and Jackies Warrior in the Southwest Stakes. Wow, that is star power this early in the year.
    Mandaloun, Keepmeinmind (yes, cross-entered), Midnight Bourbon, and Senor Buscador (no Lasix) are entered in the Risen Star. My guess is Keepmeinmind picks this softer spot.

    As a side light, look who is entered in the Mineshaft Stakes at the Fair Grounds: Wells Bayou, Enforceable, and Maxfield as a prelim to the Risen Star.

    Do I have to label older/filly/3YOC races at this point?

    Don't forget Bezos today.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 02-07-2021 at 11:20 AM.

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    OK, Bezos, the buzz horse of the week is in to go this Sunday at Santa Anita Race 5:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=838715

    If you recall, it was overheard on the TVG show last week that this horse was mentioned as a (possibly) better talent than their already highly rated stablemate Life Is Good.

    This buzz horse even gets his own article:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...anta_Anita_123

    Bezos will have Mike Smith on board. Baffert will also be saddling Tivoli Twirl, who has a similar price and just as impressive workouts. There are other 'just as impressive starters' in this field as well, so you can get a price if you can sift through the hype and fog to pick out a winner. Baffert wins with first time babies at a 35% clip, and he has 2 of them in this race. Mr. Impossible finished 2nd to the impressive Concert Tour; as mentioned in a handicapping tip, second time out usually sees a big improvement, so this one is also worthy of consideration. Looks like a triple box!

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Bez0s is a zero in his debut.
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/bl..._the_board_123

    Baffert is baffled as both of his highly rated and highly priced horses do not fire. Dream Shake, trained by Peter Eurton, who trained 2YO Breeder's Crown Champion of 2019, Storm The Court in a big upset, is now on the board.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  20. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Folks,

    The KYD Pool #2 is Out. It is an early guide to those horses that have already made an impression as to their predisposition to run well on the first Saturday in May...
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...36&param3=1496
    I'd say there is a 50/50 chance the winner of that race is not on this list, but what do I know.

    Here is a list of possible odds (way too early, but it is an expanded list of names).
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...Derby_odds_123
    Good to see Fauci at 150 to 1. I heard that he was working with the WHO today in the new Biden Administration. I guess that is the World Horse Organization??

    Does anyone remember the Dosage Theory predictor of being the winner of the KYD?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dosage_Index

    The Dosage Theory was a way to measure "Aptitudinal" ability of a Thoroughbred to win the Kentucky Derby, based on their pedigree.
    If you had sprinters in your pedigree, you were a sprinter (high dosage) and you were not winning the KYD.
    If you had classic horses in your pedigree (lower than 4.00 dosage) then you qualified.
    Makes perfect sense, right?!

    Part of the theory (by observation) was also that you had to start at least once as a 2YO.

    As time went on, there were no exceptions to this exceptional theory, then Strike The Gold won the KYD.
    His dosage was too high. So, like any good theorist, the problem was his ancestors must have been missing from the list of horses, so they relabeled the recent sires in his ancestry to force Strike The Gold's Dosage value under 4.00.
    Then more horses above 4.00, and who didn't start as 2YO, started to win, and the theory was kaput.
    But Dosage is still a good indicator of a horses genetic makeup and tendencies.
    Use this, and knowing which sires are turfers and mudders, and this will help to fill out your handicapping arsenal of tools.

    I don't know how many times you have a race where you have horses that show nothing but fast race lines, and the weather is muddy. So all you have to go on is pedigrees, trainers, and jockeys (and how the horses look on the track). Having a list of sires that produce mudders is valueable.
    I love the Super Savers and anything that has Gone West in the pedigree in the mud; these bloodlines seem to love the mud. Recognize the symbols for mudders in the race programs too. Usually a big asterisk next to the horse's name. But, I digress.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Could it be time for Derby Pool #3?

    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...408&param3=816

    Here are the odds:
    https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...Odds_Sheet.pdf

    Out of 23 horses listed, 9 of them are new. That is in only 3 weeks.
    Things change faster than the horses.

    And of course, the favorite for the Morning Line Odds for the futures is .... All Other Three Year Olds.
    Frankly, I think this is a sucker bet. I'd expect the winner of the KYD to be on the board.

    Essential Quality is co-favorite in this Pool, and will be active this weekend.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

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