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  1. #401
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    The last race today was a disaster. I had an exacta box with the 1,2 and 4 Tiz The Bomb. Of course 2 was scratched, someone screwed up and tried to scratch #1. I ultimately went with the Bomb and Dakota Gold. Fortunately I placed win/place on the Bomb which paid $25. for a $2.00 bet. Modern Games was clearly the best, but no payoff. This was maybe the craziest thing I have ever seen at the track.

    It will be interesting to see who takes over training Baffertís potential Derby horse Corniche.

    The 8th which I knew was wide open blew up my late pick 5 and pick 4. I should have gone all in, but I am a cheapskate. So I could pick winners, just not get the second place horse for my exactas. Oh well, thereís always tomorrow.
    Aahh, horse racing. Built in regret.
    Yes, that last race was nuts. Excellent call on Tiz The Bomb though!
    But the preparations that some of these horses undergo drives them nuts.
    I wouldn't be surprised if the 'preperation' that the 2-horse (Albahr) underwent had him so wound up that was ready to explode. Of course, that horse will not be tested for anything. Just sayin'.

    Crazy stuff scratching the eventual winner, then letting him race for purse only.

    At least they are attempting to be cautious rather than letting horses race that are possibly injured. I forget the name of the A.P. Indy mare, about 5 years ago, she didn't seem right in the warm ups. They chose to race her and she failed miserably. She was the big favorite.

    Dakota Gold looked horribly boxed, but he didn't look like he had much fight in him.
    an
    Craziest thing I've seen on a racetrack was the Allemeuse race at Saratoga. Allemeuse finishes first, another 2 horses were involved in an incident in the race, but Allemeuse (who won) was mistakenly blamed and disqualified when they declared the race "Official". Once the race is Official, they can't correct it. Years were spent in litigating this to try and get money for the winning tickets. The horse's owners did get the purse money.
    https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/m...ticle-1.158725

    I watched the race and the results and was yelling at the TV.


    Larry
    DevilHorse

  2. #402
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    OK, here is Friday's Breeder's Cup Entries, Odds, and Time of Race:
    https://www.drf.com/race-entries/tra...ate/11-05-2021

    Breeder's Cup at Del Mar on Friday 11/5/2021

    Race 6 - Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at 5:50 (all times are given in Easter/Durham time):
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Ward URL above, Friday, November 5, 2021, Race 6, PPs]
    Averly Jane and One Timer look like the standouts.

    Race 7 - Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies at 6:30:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [B Cox URL above, Friday, November 5, 2021, Race 7, PPs[/B,
    Echo Zulu should be an odds on favorite (east coast bias), but Juju's Manand Hidden Connection have done no wrong.

    Race 8 - Breeder's Cup Juvenile Filly Turf at 7:10:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [B Cox URL above, Friday, November 5, 2021, Race 8, PPs]
    Cairo Memories look like the overwelming favorite.

    Race 9 - Breeder's Cup Juvenile at 7:50:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [Baffert URL above, Friday, November 5, 2021, Race 9, PPs]
    The premier race of the day featuring Corniche vs. Jack Christopher

    Race 10 - Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf at 8:30
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [B Cox URL above, Friday, November 5, 2021, Race 10, PPs]
    Looks like favorites will be Albahr vs. Dakota Gold.

    With all of the races for 2YOs, these will not be full races.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    So, will the real winter book favorite for the 2022 Kentucky Derby please raise your hoof?

    Is it the winner of the 2YO Juvenile Breeder's Cup Corniche (Beyer 91 yesterday)? Because well, the 2YO Juvenile Breeder's Cup winner is always the favorite, but really doesn't ever win right? And Quality Road can't sire a colt THAT good!!
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1456772231393120260
    So how does Bob Baffert lose by winning? Since Baffert is prohibited from running a horse in the KYD next year, his horse Corniche did not get any points toward the KYD. The owner has some thinking to do if he wants to stick with Bob Baffert because unless some litigation miraculously appears Baffert is not sending any horses to Louisville.

    Is the winner Jack Christopher? Since he was scratched (shin problem) from the Juvenile BC, he is immune from the jinx. He is good to go!

    Is the winner Echo Zulu (Beyer 94 yesterday - top 2YO Beyer of the day)?
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1456752030920347657
    She ran faster than Corniche for the same distance (and equal weights), but she did it easier and will get a 5lb allowance in the KYD.

    Could be any of these animals.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 11-06-2021 at 10:59 AM.

  3. #403
    Time to make a few picks for today's BC:

    Race 4 - Gamine (last race wasn't her best. 2 months off probably set her right)

    Race 5 - Golden Pal

    Race 6 - Life Is Good (is he all the way back?) - Pick Silver Slate in an Exacta box with LIG

    Race 8 - Jackie's Warrior appears to be a monster. Dr. Shivel continues to develop.

    Race 9 - I've rode Mo Farza all year. Got Stormy and Space Blues rounds out a Triple box.

    Race 10 - Letruska edges a tough Malathaat

    Race 12 - Have to go with Knicks Go because Del Mar stretch is 100 yards shorter than Churchill Downs. How will Essential Quality catch him unless he is really close or there are insane fractions. Could be insane fractions with 3 speed horses (Medina Spirit, Hot Rod Charlie, Knicks Go), but if KG is right, he'll win.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  4. #404
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Time to make a few picks for today's BC:

    Race 4 - Gamine (last race wasn't her best. 2 months off probably set her right)

    Race 5 - Golden Pal

    Race 6 - Life Is Good (is he all the way back?) - Pick Silver Slate in an Exacta box with LIG

    Race 8 - Jackie's Warrior appears to be a monster. Dr. Shivel continues to develop.

    Race 9 - I've rode Mo Farza all year. Got Stormy and Space Blues rounds out a Triple box.

    Race 10 - Letruska edges a tough Malathaat

    Race 12 - Have to go with Knicks Go because Del Mar stretch is 100 yards shorter than Churchill Downs. How will Essential Quality catch him unless he is really close or there are insane fractions. Could be insane fractions with 3 speed horses (Medina Spirit, Hot Rod Charlie, Knicks Go), but if KG is right, he'll win.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    I cashed almost no tickets today. Maybe Gamine needed some medication. LOL. I had her in my multi race picks, so I was rooting for her. Maybe she was an omen that the unbeatables, such as Letruska were going to be very beatable.

    The 5 furlong turf races reminded me of a quarter horse race. Irad rode Wardís two and three year olds likes quarter horses.

    I thought Life is Good was the most impressive horse of the day. The fractions were ridiculous and then he drew off in the stretch.

    Good pick on Knicks Go. I thought the race shaped up to run more like Letruskaís, but KG did it with some to spare.

    Congrats to the Japanese. What a great day for them. And the pick four and five paid ridiculous amounts.

    Iím going to move to Duke bb for a while. I will try to watch Maxfield in the Clark. After his move in the Bluegrass, I thought he might be an eventual champion. I enjoyed the three year old colts this year. They were a very good and competitive group. I hope a few will be back next year. I understand retiring the colts so young, but I still hate it.

  5. #405
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    I cashed almost no tickets today. Maybe Gamine needed some medication. LOL. I had her in my multi race picks, so I was rooting for her. Maybe she was an omen that the unbeatables, such as Letruska were going to be very beatable.

    The 5 furlong turf races reminded me of a quarter horse race. Irad rode Wardís two and three year olds likes quarter horses.

    I thought Life is Good was the most impressive horse of the day. The fractions were ridiculous and then he drew off in the stretch.

    Good pick on Knicks Go. I thought the race shaped up to run more like Letruskaís, but KG did it with some to spare.

    Congrats to the Japanese. What a great day for them. And the pick four and five paid ridiculous amounts.

    Iím going to move to Duke bb for a while. I will try to watch Maxfield in the Clark. After his move in the Bluegrass, I thought he might be an eventual champion. I enjoyed the three year old colts this year. They were a very good and competitive group. I hope a few will be back next year. I understand retiring the colts so young, but I still hate it.
    The Japanese and Godolphin had quite a day yesterday. Such is the internationalization of racing. That's fine of course. The US goes to Europe and wins their races as well. Good competition brings out the best.

    My impression is that the long season for some of these horses took its toll. Horses like Letruska, and the 3YOs especially, couldn't carry their form from spring into the late fall. Life Is Good and Golden Pal were exceptions because of early season injuries and being very lightly raced. Of course, you can rationalize anything.

    Wow, $8.40 on Knicks Go was a gift. That horse will go off to stud (although I haven't heard any plans for him) and I personally would stay away from him. Do you think that a horse that was a mediocre 3YO stakes placed horse, that went into another barn and was unstoppable, is really due only to a few training tricks? Either the previous trainer was a fool or the new trainer was a wizard. I'd expect Knicks Go to have the stud career of Affirmed. But, that is just my guess. There are plenty of other choices. It is not like Paynter has thrown that many other top stakes horses.

    A few favorites, a few moderate prices, and a few long-shots gives everyone something that they wanted.

    The Clark, The Malibu, and The Remsen will be some good season enders. New shooters come up all the time and before you know it, it will be derby time. But for now, let's enjoy the residue of a great weekend of racing where all of the horses came away safely.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  6. #406
    I've been delinquent in mentioning the Halloween hunch of the week.

    A very nice 2YO won the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs on October 31, 2021. Howling Time whose dam is named Werewolf (not kidding), won this race by about 3 lengths.
    https://www.bloodhorse.com/stallion-.../not-this-time

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1454956073585192965

    Howling Time is now 2 for 2 in his young career. He is by the young sire Not This Time (Giants Causeway). [Remember the nice filly from last year, Princess Noor? Also by Not This Time].

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  7. #407

    Where Are They Now?

    I noticed a few names this morning:

    A workout was posted yesterday for Concert Tour. He breezed a 35.80 at CD (very nice). We last saw him finishing out of the money (only time) at the Preakness.

    That got me thinking, "what ever happened to Rombauer who won the Preakness?" I found this timely note:
    https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...-with-mccarthy
    If he stays healthy, we will hopefully be seeing the likes of him early next year at some of those tracks with long stretches (not Del Mar).

    With a few of the stars of the sport going off to stud, it would be nice to see some familiar faces returning.
    Larry
    DevilHorse

  8. #408
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    The Japanese and Godolphin had quite a day yesterday. Such is the internationalization of racing. That's fine of course. The US goes to Europe and wins their races as well. Good competition brings out the best.

    My impression is that the long season for some of these horses took its toll. Horses like Letruska, and the 3YOs especially, couldn't carry their form from spring into the late fall. Life Is Good and Golden Pal were exceptions because of early season injuries and being very lightly raced. Of course, you can rationalize anything.

    Wow, $8.40 on Knicks Go was a gift. That horse will go off to stud (although I haven't heard any plans for him) and I personally would stay away from him. Do you think that a horse that was a mediocre 3YO stakes placed horse, that went into another barn and was unstoppable, is really due only to a few training tricks? Either the previous trainer was a fool or the new trainer was a wizard. I'd expect Knicks Go to have the stud career of Affirmed. But, that is just my guess. There are plenty of other choices. It is not like Paynter has thrown that many other top stakes horses.

    A few favorites, a few moderate prices, and a few long-shots gives everyone something that they wanted.

    The Clark, The Malibu, and The Remsen will be some good season enders. New shooters come up all the time and before you know it, it will be derby time. But for now, let's enjoy the residue of a great weekend of racing where all of the horses came away safely.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    The Classic made me wonder, how often do 3yoís beat older horses in that race. I may as John McCain famously said
    ďDo a Google.Ē I bet you know the answer.

    I kept my notes from last yearís Breeders Cup to see if I won or lost last year. Well because Essential Quality paid 7/2 and I bet more than usual I was a winner that day. Winning the last race of the day has always been a good way for me to go home a winner.

    I like your thoughts on the long season and its effects. But compared to 50 years ago when I first started watching racing, all these horses are lightly raced. The most amazing thing about the Seabisquit book was the the list of all the races he ran in. Have our horses been bred to be fragile? My first handicapping book I owned recommended against betting any horse that hadnít run in the last 21 days. That would disqualify most horses who run in stakes races today. Fifty years ago Churchill Downs would run the last Derby prep race the Derby Trial a week before the Derby. I think some of Calumetís great horses actually ran in the Derby trial and then the Ky Derby. Since Secretariat still holds the fastest Derby time, Iím not sure todayís horses are any better than those 50 years ago. I suspect the race track surfaces are actually better than the ones decades ago. So I wonder if the breed has actually improved. In any event, they are magnificent animals. And the best ones who try every time are remarkable.

    As a born and bred Kentuckian I am glad the BC is coming back to Keeneland. I may be prejudiced and I have never been to Saratoga, but to my eyes Keeneland is the most idyllic horse track in this country. I was actually disappointed the only time I went to Del Mar. It looks like you drive into a fairgrounds to get to it. Maybe fighting traffic on I 5 for hours from Orange County jaded my opinion that day. The other track I thought was beautiful was Hialeah. But the Florida racing commission killed it.

    Thanks for the reminder on the Malibu and the Remsen. Keep us posted with your thoughts so I donít forget.

  9. #409
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    The Classic made me wonder, how often do 3yo’s beat older horses in that race. I may as John McCain famously said
    “Do a Google.” I bet you know the answer.

    I kept my notes from last year’s Breeders Cup to see if I won or lost last year. Well because Essential Quality paid 7/2 and I bet more than usual I was a winner that day. Winning the last race of the day has always been a good way for me to go home a winner.

    I like your thoughts on the long season and its effects. But compared to 50 years ago when I first started watching racing, all these horses are lightly raced. The most amazing thing about the Seabisquit book was the the list of all the races he ran in. Have our horses been bred to be fragile? My first handicapping book I owned recommended against betting any horse that hadn’t run in the last 21 days. That would disqualify most horses who run in stakes races today. Fifty years ago Churchill Downs would run the last Derby prep race the Derby Trial a week before the Derby. I think some of Calumet’s great horses actually ran in the Derby trial and then the Ky Derby. Since Secretariat still holds the fastest Derby time, I’m not sure today’s horses are any better than those 50 years ago. I suspect the race track surfaces are actually better than the ones decades ago. So I wonder if the breed has actually improved. In any event, they are magnificent animals. And the best ones who try every time are remarkable.

    As a born and bred Kentuckian I am glad the BC is coming back to Keeneland. I may be prejudiced and I have never been to Saratoga, but to my eyes Keeneland is the most idyllic horse track in this country. I was actually disappointed the only time I went to Del Mar. It looks like you drive into a fairgrounds to get to it. Maybe fighting traffic on I 5 for hours from Orange County jaded my opinion that day. The other track I thought was beautiful was Hialeah. But the Florida racing commission killed it.

    Thanks for the reminder on the Malibu and the Remsen. Keep us posted with your thoughts so I don’t forget.
    On 3YOs who won the BC Classic, here is an article that talks about them through Raven's Pass:
    https://www.breederscup.com/article/...ners-no-rarity
    After Raven's Pass the 3YO BC Classic winners were:
    Bayern, American Pharoah, Arrogate, and Authentic (all Baffert horses BTW)
    Remember that 3YOs also get a weight allowance (4lbs this year).

    TBreds have been a distinct breed for 300-400 years. But they race at different distances; does this cause lots of different genetic combinations for horses (sprinters can't compete at distance?). I heard the foal crop was down another 6% this year.. But I digress. I'm not sure if they are improving. The stud book is closed. They are not accepting new blood. Hybrid vigor suggests that the breed will slowly go down hill. The measureables suggest they are on a plateau, and the time between races is getting longer. Those are the facts as I see them. Why not open the stud book to quarter horses? I think the quarter horses accept some thoroughbred blood.

    Standardbreds are a bit different. They are a younger population. The stud book did not close until about 150 years ago, and you can still find untraced mares as recently as 100 years ago. There are French, Italian, Thoroughbred, warmblood, Morgan, Saddlebred, and Swedish strains everywhere in many of these horses, and the changes in the breed is visual and measureable. The Pacers and Trotters are distinctly different sub-breeds, and they interbreed. The speed for a mile race (for each sub-breed) drops about 3/10ths of a second every 5-10 years, depending on the age, gait, sex. If you ask older horsesmen, and compare photographs, the size, gait, and shape of the animals has become more refined. 100 years ago, a horse could go a mile in 2:10 and be a world champion. You can't qualify on any track in the country with that time now. 2YO filly trotters can wisk around the track in 1:55 easily. T-Breds have been locked in at 1:34-1:35 for top stakes horses for several generations. 1:31.x-1:32.x remains the top standard for Dr. Fager/Elusive Quality type performances. 1:46.x is the top Standardbred miles that get hit once or twice a year now. I'd expect to see a 1:45.x within the next decade. When I first started watching, 1:52.0 was the first top record for a mile that I heard about; jaws dropped at that kind of speed. When Niatross broke the 1:50.0 barrier (In Kentucky BTW) that was amazing. I owned a son of Niatross at one point. Niatross only lost 2 races in his life (once falling over the rail at Saratoga Harness). He raced every week for 2 years (during the season) and had a relatively poor driver.

    Seabiscuit was an older horse by the time he ran well.

    There was a minor 2YO race at Belmont this past weekend. The Nashua was won by Rockefeller (a Baffert horse on the East coast):
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Sorry to disagree with you, but Saratoga has major charisma. Horses saddled by trees. Huge trees in the infield. You feel like you are back 100 years. If you ever go there, go to the town really early and walk around before you go into the track. The whole town is an extension of the track. I don't know if you ever experience fair racing (it sounds like Kentucky Downs was like that for you) but Saratoga has that feel, with 30,000 of your closest friends. Unless you've been to a Belmont of Monmouth, you probably haven't experienced a large park on the opposite side of the track from the raceway. Very pleasant. Saratoga used to be an actual destination for springs (water) and spa. The Big Red Spring is located in a corner of the grounds. Go and get some spring water (and then you can wonder why you bothered - yuch). It is an experience. Unfortunately, they used to have the last real winner's circle in america; a chalk circle on the dirt where winners used to stand. I don't know why they got rid of that. Yes, I've been to Keeneland. No comparison. Keeneland is a racetrack; Saratoga is a Park where they also race horses.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 11-08-2021 at 06:07 PM.

  10. #410
    The Bob Hope Stakes for 2YOs is today.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [Baffert URL above, November 14, 2021, Del Mar - Race 8, PPs]

    Baffert has 3 of the 5 horses in this race.
    He discusses them in this article:
    Could be some future Road to the KYD contenders in there.

    Here is one person's view of the post Breeder's Cup Divisional Rankings. Which horses have the inside lane for the Eclipse Award for their division:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/bl...at_the_top_123

    I read that there were timer issues at Del Mar during the Breeder's Cup and some of the times have been changed (I haven't seen any numbers).

    Shedaresthedevil will be returning to the races next year.

    Fans of Gabby Gaudet (Casse) of TVG, will be delighted to know that she had a baby boy recently. All are well.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FEKGa4jW...jpg&name=small

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  11. #411
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    The Bob Hope Stakes for 2YOs is today.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [Baffert URL above, November 14, 2021, Del Mar - Race 8, PPs]

    Baffert has 3 of the 5 horses in this race.
    He discusses them in this article:
    Could be some future Road to the KYD contenders in there.

    Here is one person's view of the post Breeder's Cup Divisional Rankings. Which horses have the inside lane for the Eclipse Award for their division:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/bl...at_the_top_123

    I read that there were timer issues at Del Mar during the Breeder's Cup and some of the times have been changed (I haven't seen any numbers).

    Shedaresthedevil will be returning to the races next year.

    Fans of Gabby Gaudet (Casse) of TVG, will be delighted to know that she had a baby boy recently. All are well.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FEKGa4jW...jpg&name=small

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Good news for Gabby and good news for race fans that Shedaresthedevil is returning.

  12. #412
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    The Bob Hope Stakes for 2YOs is today.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [Baffert URL above, November 14, 2021, Del Mar - Race 8, PPs]

    Baffert has 3 of the 5 horses in this race.
    He discusses them in this article:
    Could be some future Road to the KYD contenders in there.


    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Messier won the Bob Hope yesterday:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Not sure that this is really.. Bob's hope for the KYD, but Messier's jockey (Prat) did little stick handling as he took Messier back to last with the blinkers off and then corralled the field for an easy victory. It was a fast pace up front, but I'm not sure the last furlong in 13.5 seconds will scare anybody, as it was more than enough.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  13. #413

    HISA

    Everything (and more) that you wanted to know about the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA):

    https://www.hisausregs.org/

    https://www.hisaus.org/

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  14. #414

    Some Good Stuff Thanksgiving Weekend

    Greetings Horse People (no, not you centaurs).

    Anyway, a really nice race appeared the weekend before the Remsen.

    On Saturday, at Churchill Downs, a couple of nice colt/filly stakes are being run.

    For the colts, the Kentucky Juvenile Cup is being run:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [Romans URL above, 'Saturday November 27, 2021', Churchill Downs - Race 11, PPs]
    This brings together two of the more interesting contenders for the 2022 KYD;
    Tiz The Bomb, who finished 2nd in the BC Juvenile (and a fave of this thread) is likely to be the favorite.
    Also, the beautifully named, and undefeated Howling Time (Not This Time out of Werewolf.. last ran/won on Halloween).
    Looks like a full field of colts, with assorted credentials.

    Also on the card is the Golden Rod for fillies:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [Romans URL above, 'Saturday November 27, 2021', Churchill Downs - Race 10, PPs]
    Famed is the recent winner, mentioned in this thread, who is the half sister to Essential Quality.
    Sandstone looks to have the better lines and more experience.

    Also of interest, if you're looking for what the experts think is the field of top contenders for the 2022 KYD, the KYD Futures Pool is out. You can find the PPs of the top 24 contenders at:

    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [Romans URL above, 'Sunday November 28, 2021', Ky Derby Future - Race 1, PPs]
    Just look at above the other pointers I provided. Howling Time appears 2 times (once for the Futures and once for the KY Juvenile race.

    Also, because today is Thanksgiving, here is a story about a horse named Thanksgiving!
    https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac..._medium=social

    Have a good bird everybody!!

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  15. #415
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Greetings Horse People (no, not you centaurs).

    Anyway, a really nice race appeared the weekend before the Remsen.

    On Saturday, at Churchill Downs, a couple of nice colt/filly stakes are being run.

    For the colts, the Kentucky Juvenile Cup is being run:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [Romans URL above, 'Saturday November 27, 2021', Churchill Downs - Race 11, PPs]
    This brings together two of the more interesting contenders for the 2022 KYD;
    Tiz The Bomb, who finished 2nd in the BC Juvenile (and a fave of this thread) is likely to be the favorite.
    Also, the beautifully named, and undefeated Howling Time (Not This Time out of Werewolf.. last ran/won on Halloween).
    Looks like a full field of colts, with assorted credentials.

    Also on the card is the Golden Rod for fillies:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [Romans URL above, 'Saturday November 27, 2021', Churchill Downs - Race 10, PPs]
    Famed is the recent winner, mentioned in this thread, who is the half sister to Essential Quality.
    Sandstone looks to have the better lines and more experience.

    Also of interest, if you're looking for what the experts think is the field of top contenders for the 2022 KYD, the KYD Futures Pool is out. You can find the PPs of the top 24 contenders at:

    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [Romans URL above, 'Sunday November 28, 2021', Ky Derby Future - Race 1, PPs]
    Just look at above the other pointers I provided. Howling Time appears 2 times (once for the Futures and once for the KY Juvenile race.

    Also, because today is Thanksgiving, here is a story about a horse named Thanksgiving!
    https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac..._medium=social

    Have a good bird everybody!!

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Tiz the Bomb has been on the grass recently, but returns to the dirt. I donít normally like that, but he has bullet works on the dirt and broke his maiden on the dirt. This looks like a quality race to me. I checked every link so I may have this confused but I believe the race has a second time Run Happy colt who won first out. The question is, can Howling Time win when itís not Halloween.

  16. #416
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    Tiz the Bomb has been on the grass recently, but returns to the dirt. I don’t normally like that, but he has bullet works on the dirt and broke his maiden on the dirt. This looks like a quality race to me. I checked every link so I may have this confused but I believe the race has a second time Run Happy colt who won first out. The question is, can Howling Time win when it’s not Halloween.
    Barbaro, Animal Kingdom, Big Brown were all successful on the turf before becoming KYD winners (obviously) on the dirt. The question is whether that first start on the dirt by Tiz The Bomb was just first start jitters or a real dislike for that surface. We do often see a big jump in performance after the first start. It does make it an interesting betting race though. Need I mention Secretariat was also successful on the turf, setting a world record at Woodbine. Northern Dancer, the greatest turf sire ever, was also great on the dirt.

    Now, looking at Tiz The Bomb's pedigree, the bottom is dirt (pun intended), but the top suggests turf. Hit It A Bomb (his sire) was a turf horse; he won on the turf in the USA and was shipped to europe where he won on the turf there. But Hit It A Bomb is by War Front, who has sired his share of dirt horses as well. So it is within the realm of possibility that Tiz The Bomb has dirt talent. Interesting that Tiz The Bomb's best dirt works were in the slop.

    Tiz The Bomb was all out in his Breeder's Cup race, but we have not seen the best from Howling Time. Their speed ratings are comparable. So I might give the nod to Howling Time in a close exacta. White Abarrio and Classic Causeway should assure an honest pace for these two closers. Smile Happy could also be a factor.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  17. #417
    Wow, almost missed this. The Clark Stakes today:

    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Pletcher URL above, November 26, 2021, Churchill Downs - Race 11, PPs]

    There's no early speed. What do we do?
    Midnight Bourbon can take control of the race. If in shape he can win it.
    Maxfield will have ample runway to catch him; the question is 'can he'?
    Dr. Post or Happy Saver can take third; but will either change their style of racing to try and take it all?

    Midnight Bourbon, Maxfield, Dr. Post is your triple.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  18. #418
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Wow, almost missed this. The Clark Stakes today:

    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Pletcher URL above, November 26, 2021, Churchill Downs - Race 11, PPs]

    There's no early speed. What do we do?
    Midnight Bourbon can take control of the race. If in shape he can win it.
    Maxfield will have ample runway to catch him; the question is 'can he'?
    Dr. Post or Happy Saver can take third; but will either change their style of racing to try and take it all?

    Midnight Bourbon, Maxfield, Dr. Post is your triple.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Maxfield takes the Clark!
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1464369630546259971
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Yes, deference should be paid to Maxfield being an older horse.
    He also had been 4 for 4 at Churchill Downs.
    But the race went his way.
    None of the speed horses went to the front; as had occurred in the Haskell and Travers, Midnight Bourbon took the lead. You figure the connections would get that this horse is not going to finish in a strong field when he does this. But the fractions were not crazy on this cool night. This was an advantage to Maxfield who stalked the pace instead of laying back. So Maxfield did not have much work to take over the lead at the head of the stretch.

    Happy Saver put in a strong stretch run to finish second. Midnight Bourbon held for third.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  19. #419
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Greetings Horse People (no, not you centaurs).

    Anyway, a really nice race appeared the weekend before the Remsen.

    On Saturday, at Churchill Downs, a couple of nice colt/filly stakes are being run.

    For the colts, the Kentucky Juvenile Cup is being run:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [Romans URL above, 'Saturday November 27, 2021', Churchill Downs - Race 11, PPs]
    This brings together two of the more interesting contenders for the 2022 KYD;
    Tiz The Bomb, who finished 2nd in the BC Juvenile (and a fave of this thread) is likely to be the favorite.
    Also, the beautifully named, and undefeated Howling Time (Not This Time out of Werewolf.. last ran/won on Halloween).
    Looks like a full field of colts, with assorted credentials.

    Also on the card is the Golden Rod for fillies:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [Romans URL above, 'Saturday November 27, 2021', Churchill Downs - Race 10, PPs]
    Famed is the recent winner, mentioned in this thread, who is the half sister to Essential Quality.
    Sandstone looks to have the better lines and more experience.



    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Dream Lith won the Golden Rod:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1464750752589619204

    With the scratch of Tiz The Bomb (he'll be OK), the KY Jockey Club was won by Smile Happy in impressive fashion:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1464732733607866369
    Runhappy becoming quite the sire.

    BTW, Maxfield was awarded a 99 Beyer in his final start.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  20. #420

    Remsen and Cigar Mile

    We've got some good races on Saturday.
    At Aqueduct:

    The Remsen for 2YOs:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Pletcher URL above, Saturday December 4, 2021, Aqueduct - Race 8, PPs]
    Frankly, in a race that once gave you Alydar vs. Believe it, there isn't much it would appear; but who knows.
    The best it would appear has some issues. Who Hoo Thats Me has highest figure, but it is on an off track in a state restricted event. Sire Keen Ice was hit or miss.
    I'll vote for Mo Donegal. Trained by Pletcher with Irad Ortiz up. Won his maiden last out.

    The Cigar Mile looks to be the pick race of the weekend:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [Pletcher URL above, Saturday December 4, 2021, Aqueduct - Race 10, PPs]
    American Revolution, Independence Hall, Following Sea, Code Of Honor, and Ginobli each have a shot at top honors.
    While Independence Hall and Code of Honor have the back class, American Revolution and Following Sea are young developing horses that were not fatigued by the Triple Crown trail.
    This race has very contrasting horses. Speed types and closers; younger/older; sprinters/distance; all trying to go a mile. Really interesting. Independence Hall is the class of the race, but horses like American Revolution or Ginobli have not shown their full class yet.
    The weather will let this be a fast track, so I'll go with Independence Hall over American Revolution or Ginobli.

    At Los Alamitos, the Starlet for 2YO fillies is being run:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [Baffert URL above, Saturday December 4, 2021, Los Alamitos TB - Race 8, PPs]
    Grace Adler, a $700k wonderhorse trained by Baffert, who failed miserably last time out, tries again. Was it a fluke, or is she just flawed?
    Flawed or not, Cairo Memories, who finished 9th in the BC Juvenile, but only 2 lengths back, may be the best horse in the race anyway.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

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