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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Mar 2017
    Location
    Sea Island, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by TywinBlue View Post
    If the pandemic gets worse, just have these two play, hand out the trophy and I'll be fine with it.
    As long as they get an asterisk.

  2. #42
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    MSU

    The Spartans fall today at tOSU, 79-62. T-Rank projects them to go 6-14 in the B1G. T-Rank has them at #71; KenPom #63.

    They had 20 days between games this month, due to Covid cases.

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Yeah that Champions Classic from this year ainít looking so classic about now. At most one of the four teams will be ranked this week and Kansas may not even remain in. At this point itís certainly possible that none of the four make the Tournament which would be amazing, although I still think thatís pretty unlikely. But at most it would be Duke and Kansas. The other two are toast unless they win their conference tournaments.

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Howard ends season

    Kenny Blakeney looked to have a good team this year, but they've only been able to play five games and now have ended their season. https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...ball-canceled/

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Yep, there's even a thread to discuss non-Duke basketball.
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Mount Kisco, NY
    Paige Bueckers is THE TRUTH

  7. #47
    Watching the end of the Villanova Creighton game. It seems so curious Creighton was Alex OíConnellís transfer destination, if he was in pursuit of more playing time. They seem to have a lot of players with his skill set, but better. I wonder if he will return for a 5th year.

  8. #48
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Alabama put up 115 points in regulation! They seem to be pretty legit.
    "We are not provided with wisdom, we must discover it for ourselves, after a journey through the wilderness which no one else can take for us, an effort which no one can spare us, for our wisdom is the point of view from which we come at last to regard the world." --M. Proust

  9. #49
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!

    BBQ note

    Don't look now, but maybe another young blue bloods is starting to figure it out.

    Kentucky is walloping a pretty good Tennessee team by 15 at the half. The Wildcast, who have been offensively challenged all year, have 45 at the half and seem to be on their way to scoring 80+ points for the 4th game in a row.

    If Kentucky wins all their remaining games, including winning the SEC tournament, they would get to 1 game over .500. Sounds almost laughable but not impossible.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  10. #50
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Colorado
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Don't look now, but maybe another young blue bloods is starting to figure it out.

    Kentucky is walloping a pretty good Tennessee team by 15 at the half. The Wildcast, who have been offensively challenged all year, have 45 at the half and seem to be on their way to scoring 80+ points for the 4th game in a row.

    If Kentucky wins all their remaining games, including winning the SEC tournament, they would get to 1 game over .500. Sounds almost laughable but not impossible.
    Kentucky has a lot of talent but, for most of the year has not shot well. They are playing well. I'm not at all sure they can win the SEC tournament but they are a dangerous team.

  11. #51
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Pretty good one going on in East Lansing right now! (On FS1 if you're curious)

  12. #52
    Join Date
    Mar 2017
    Location
    Sea Island, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    Pretty good one going on in East Lansing right now! (On FS1 if you're curious)
    It seems like they are trying to play football rather than basketball...

  13. #53
    ISU giving Baylor all it can handle, great game going on with under 10 to play, ISU up 3.

  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieInBrasil View Post
    ISU giving Baylor all it can handle, great game going on with under 10 to play, ISU up 3.
    This will knock Baylor down quite a bit on the KenPoms of the world...should be a Baylor 25+ point win.

  15. #55
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelion View Post
    This will knock Baylor down quite a bit on the KenPoms of the world...should be a Baylor 25+ point win.
    Baylor had an efficiency margin of +34.84 coming into the ISU game. Today, their EM is down to +33.00. That is a fairly large move but still gives Baylor a pretty big leg up on the #3 team, Michigan, which has an EM +30.59. Gonzaga is in another stratosphere at +38.30.

    To put that +38.30 in perspective, here are the annual EM leaders over the past decade. These are all post-tournament numbers, so not exactly a good match to pre-tournament figures but still...

    2020- Kansas +30.23, Gonzaga +26.95 (last year was a pretty weak year at the top in college basketball, would have made for a wild tourney... oh well)
    2019 - Virginia +34.22, Gonzaga +32.85, Mich St +30.81, Duke +30.62
    2018 - Villanova +33.76, Virginia +29.53, Duke +28.86
    2017 - Gonzaga +32.05, Villanova +29.88
    2016 - Villanova +32.01, UNC +29.82
    2015 - Kentucky +36.91, Wisconsin +33.72, Duke +32.48
    2014 - Louisville +30.41, Arizona +30.11
    2013 - Louisville +32.92, Florida +31.18
    2012 - Kentucky +32.59, Ohio St +30.07
    2011 - Ohio St +33.47, Duke +28.42 (what about only games in which Kyrie played?)
    2010 - Duke +33.29, Kansas +31.85

    As you can see, Baylor would be the top team most years in the past, though not every time. This year's Gonzaga though has a higher EM than any team over the past decade. In fact, if you go back even further in Ken's database (back to 2002), you cannot find any year where Gonzaga's +38EM would not be easily the highest in the land (wish I could find numbers on 1999 Duke!!). We will see if it holds up for Gonzaga into the post-season, but it would appear the Zags have a real shot at being a truly legendary team this year and going down as one of the greats in the history of the sport.

    -Jason "and yes, I will be cross posting this into the dork poll thread seeing as it is about 98% dork poll content" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  16. #56
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Baylor had an efficiency margin of +34.84 coming into the ISU game. Today, their EM is down to +33.00. That is a fairly large move but still gives Baylor a pretty big leg up on the #3 team, Michigan, which has an EM +30.59. Gonzaga is in another stratosphere at +38.30.

    To put that +38.30 in perspective, here are the annual EM leaders over the past decade. These are all post-tournament numbers, so not exactly a good match to pre-tournament figures but still...

    2020- Kansas +30.23, Gonzaga +26.95 (last year was a pretty weak year at the top in college basketball, would have made for a wild tourney... oh well)
    2019 - Virginia +34.22, Gonzaga +32.85, Mich St +30.81, Duke +30.62
    2018 - Villanova +33.76, Virginia +29.53, Duke +28.86
    2017 - Gonzaga +32.05, Villanova +29.88
    2016 - Villanova +32.01, UNC +29.82
    2015 - Kentucky +36.91, Wisconsin +33.72, Duke +32.48
    2014 - Louisville +30.41, Arizona +30.11
    2013 - Louisville +32.92, Florida +31.18
    2012 - Kentucky +32.59, Ohio St +30.07
    2011 - Ohio St +33.47, Duke +28.42 (what about only games in which Kyrie played?)
    2010 - Duke +33.29, Kansas +31.85

    As you can see, Baylor would be the top team most years in the past, though not every time. This year's Gonzaga though has a higher EM than any team over the past decade. In fact, if you go back even further in Ken's database (back to 2002), you cannot find any year where Gonzaga's +38EM would not be easily the highest in the land (wish I could find numbers on 1999 Duke!!). We will see if it holds up for Gonzaga into the post-season, but it would appear the Zags have a real shot at being a truly legendary team this year and going down as one of the greats in the history of the sport.

    -Jason "and yes, I will be cross posting this into the dork poll thread seeing as it is about 98% dork poll content" Evans
    According to KenPom, the 99 Duke team had a post-tourney EM of +42.7!

    The 2001 Duke team had a post-tourney EM of +37.3.

    As others have pointed out, it is difficult to compare EM's across seasons, but one way to think about it is that the 99 Duke team was 30.8 points per game better than the average D1 team that season. (42.7 points per 100 possessions * 72.3 possessions per game = 30.8 points per game).

  17. #57
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Michigan put yet another beatdown on yet another highly ranked Big 10 opponent tonight, crushing Iowa in the second half and breaking their will midway through that half. I have watched them a lot this season and there is no question in my mind they are capable of beating Baylor and/or Gonzaga and anyone else they face. They're that good. It is a perfectly balanced team, they have all the bases covered, they play as a team, they have maturity and experience and depth -- they are missing nothing. Anyone who refers to the national landscape as a Big 2 and everybody else is mistaken. It's a Big 3.

    On the other hand, Luka Garza made clear tonight why he will not be an effective NBA player, and indeed why he probably won't make the league at all. Hunter Dickinson completely bottled him up at the defensive end. He contested every shot. Or outright blocked it. Nothing easy, frustrating Garza from start to finish. Dickinson is a big dude with long arms and good defensive instincts, but in the NBA there are tons of big dudes with long arms and good defensive instincts, some who can also run and jump better than Dickinson. Garza plays bullyball. That didn't work tonight, and if it doesn't work against a college freshman -- as special a player as Dickinson is -- it ain't gonna work in today's NBA. Not to mention the issue of him being able to guard NBA bigs who are more athletic and agile, but just as big, as he is. Yes, he can step out and make jumpshots. But he's so slow that if you come out on him and play him tightly, he can't go by you.

    Franz Wagner is now being mentioned as a probable first rounder out of Michigan. He certainly has some NBA-level skill, primarily his passing and his defensive instincts and he has excellent size for his position, but I still don't buy his shot in the NBA. Seems like a bench guy to me. Maybe.

    What will be interesting is Dickinson's NBA decision. Before the season, nobody thought that was remotely going to be a thing. But it clearly is.

    Michigan also has several big time recruits coming in next year, including Caleb Houston. They're losing a ton off of this year's squad, but Juwan Howard appears to be building the top program in the Big 10, if it isn't already. Izzo has to be seething. Which is nice . . .

  18. #58
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Iím watching Baylor and West Virginia play right now. I know these two teams are not super high on the advanced defensive metrics, but they look really great to me. There is no one in the ACC, including Virginia, who plays defense at this level. Everything is contested and they both just seem incredibly fundamentally sound about keeping people in front of them.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  19. #59
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Great Falls Va
    I agree. That was a great game and another level of basketball. Way different than anything in the ACC this year. Both teams also look a lot better than either Illinois or Michigan from what Iím seeing so far.

  20. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Iím watching Baylor and West Virginia play right now. I know these two teams are not super high on the advanced defensive metrics, but they look really great to me. There is no one in the ACC, including Virginia, who plays defense at this level. Everything is contested and they both just seem incredibly fundamentally sound about keeping people in front of them.
    Yes, that game was truly "March-worthy" -- an entertaining battle that went back and forth with only a one-possession margin down the stretch through the last minute of overtime. Sadly, I've seen nothing in the ACC this season that even remotely matches the quality of play in that game, especially the intensity of the defenses. Baylor has a couple of guards who just seem unstoppable getting to the basket, and they consistently finish through tough defense.

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